CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1444 - 1394

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I did, and it is the same MCS that went over Chicago on thru the NE. It's absolutely nuts to think about it, never seen such a thing personally, quite amazing.
Not to mention everyone in the Midwest and Northeast are going to be reintroduced to it this weekend, LOL, what a weird coincidence, that the same low would whip back around the High, and hit the Midwest again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
With this kind of steering and the intensity associated with it 93L will be toast very soon. I would be shocked if it developed any further before going ashore.



That ridge is no joke and of note down the road.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CosmicEvents:
You think because we're both Mexican anon personas that we're amigos?:P I have no idea where he is. What about my knowledge and wit? What am I, chopped liver?


LOL, actually, your charm and wit is what made me think of him....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

The SW Caribbean continues to be a teaser. Not much will happen there over the next 12 hours.

93L is moving too fast to amount to much and will likely be a distant memory within 24 hours.

More watching and waiting.


The Caribbean disturbance actually has made some progress tonight as a low level circulation is developing and becoming somewhat organized tonight just off the Nicaraguan coast as evidenced by the latest surface observations, low level vorticity product from CIMSS, and satellite imagery; albeit not well defined.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5167
just to briefly get off the topic of 93L, does anyone remember when Beijing used a chemical and put it into the atmosphere there, and it caused 60 feet of snow in their winter and then afterwards caused the Major drought in western/central china, that definetley jacked up the atmosphere, thanks a lot China... Just doesnt make any since why they would mess with the atmosphere, that completely sets off the balance in the atmosphere causing extremes worldwide...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:


Thats ironic, I live in Chicago and am moving to South Bend.


South Bend is a good town, miss the place sometimes. I lived there 24 years then moved down to SE Florida, been here 9 years in August.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1438. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With this kind of steering and the intensity associated with it 93L will be toast very soon. I would be shocked if it developed any further before going ashore.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15790
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Cosmic, ya ever hear from KanKunKid ? Miss his knowledge and wit....
You think because we're both Mexican anon personas that we're amigos?:P I have no idea where he is. What about my knowledge and wit? What am I, chopped liver?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5540
1435. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Did anyone see this?


STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

from the Oklahoma outbreak last week
Quoting Speeky:
I heard that there is a new EF-5 Tornado.

The one that struck El Reno is now EF-5

is this true?


Yes and yes.

Also two EF4s same day, Chickasha to Newcastle - 30 mile track, and rural Grady County to Washington and Goldsby - 27 mile track. Both with max winds of 190mph.
Link.

For full report from NWS Norman, May 24, 2010 Tornado Outbreak.

Add: Also one EF-3, one EF-2, two EF1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1433. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
xx/xx/93l
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1432. Patrap

Pump up da Volume,..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


My parents live in South Bend, IN and I have a cousin in Chicago.


Thats ironic, I live in Chicago and am moving to South Bend.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting lazerpointernerd:


That is quite interesting. I was in Illinois for that storm; it did a number on the trees in town with the winds. I actually head back home to Houston on Friday but I think this thing will beat me to Texas (or Mex) before it can hit me twice.


My parents live in South Bend, IN and I have a cousin in Chicago.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Good evening

The SW Caribbean continues to be a teaser. Not much will happen there over the next 12 hours.

93L is moving too fast to amount to much and will likely be a distant memory within 24 hours.

More watching and waiting.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15790
Quoting centex:
With ridge sliding to the east it might make TX landfall. Even NWS having trouble picking up on this feature and only willing 20% chance of rain at this time. With models and professional forecasters unable to make 48 hour forecast we are left with just us bloggers to fill in the gap.


Which is why HH data will be helpful in this situation.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
I get this feeling with the last TWD from the NHC that expectations are growing with the Caribbean AOI.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep as amazing as it sounds if it keeps going maybe it will be right back where it started from by this sunday


That would be crazy, crazy, crazy stuff right there.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
1425. centex
With ridge sliding to the east it might make TX landfall. Even NWS having trouble picking up on this feature and only willing 20% chance of rain at this time. With models and professional forecasters unable to make 48 hour forecast we are left with just us bloggers to fill in the gap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I did, and it is the same MCS that went over Chicago on thru the NE. It's absolutely nuts to think about it, never seen such a thing personally, quite amazing.


That is quite interesting. I was in Illinois for that storm; it did a number on the trees in town with the winds. I actually head back home to Houston on Friday but I think this thing will beat me to Texas (or Mex) before it can hit me twice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1423. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MrstormX:


Yes it is...
yep as amazing as it sounds if it keeps going maybe it will be right back where it started from by this sunday
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1422. Skyepony (Mod)
GOES-8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breeezee:
93L looks to be growing larger in mass ,must be feeding off the loop
it's pumping the ridge....to some small extent.....
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5540
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


00z Surface analysis has the low off the Nicaraguan east coast.The position coincides with those observations.



14kt easterly in that image is right at the center, obs don't get much better than that.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Banter? We ain't got no banter. We don't need no banter! I don't have to show you any stinkin' banter!


Cosmic, ya ever hear from KanKunKid ? Miss his knowledge and wit....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lazerpointernerd:


Are you saying this blob is more or less the same storm that went through chicago this past weekend? I'm just asking because I didn't track it.


Yes it is...
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting lazerpointernerd:


Are you saying this blob is more or less the same storm that went through chicago this past weekend? I'm just asking because I didn't track it.


I did, and it is the same MCS that went over Chicago on thru the NE. It's absolutely nuts to think about it, never seen such a thing personally, quite amazing.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Numbers are up from last night, broad circulation is tightening up a bit as well.




00z Surface analysis has the low off the Nicaraguan east coast.The position coincides with those observations.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


We have to keep the idle banter down during the busy season. All of that nonsense should be reserved for the WU mail.
Banter? We ain't got no banter. We don't need no banter! I don't have to show you any stinkin' banter!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5540
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
93L is one of the strangest things I have seen weather wise. I remember watching this approach Chicago, IL just a few days ago - small ball of convection. Not a drop of rain fell in Gainesville, FL from 93L. It looks like TX will get some rain in a couple of days.


Are you saying this blob is more or less the same storm that went through chicago this past weekend? I'm just asking because I didn't track it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is the HH statement still valid for tomorrow?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
93L is one of the strangest things I have seen weather wise. I remember watching this approach Chicago, IL just a few days ago - small ball of convection. Not a drop of rain fell in Gainesville, FL from 93L. It looks like TX will get some rain in a couple of days.




Go Gators!!!! I was just there for freshman preview today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


I can't either it's a round blob full of lightning & night has only begun. Like I said~ give it 6 hours.



oooooh....a new visual to add to the collection..I like it....TY Skye :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Discussion from the NWS in Brownsville


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
729 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.UPDATE...A RARE UPDATE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NHC AND
WFO BRO IS MONITORING A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS NON TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSUR
E RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 25 MPH BUT
COULD TURN MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NUMERICAL
AND HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THIS TREND FOR THE LAST
24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE APPROACHING SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATER FRIDAY AND SPREADING MOISTURE INLAND
SATURDAY IF IT SURVIVES ITS TRIP ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THE ADDED
TROPICAL MOISTURE WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THIS SAID ADDED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weather456 left for personal reasons including to spend more time with family
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:


Keep dreaming, we shouldn't be messing with the atmosphere and doing so could really mess up the heat balance on earth.
Most of the discoveries of modern science started as dreams. We MUST motivate the thinkers of tomorrow, else they all sit around like a bunch of dried up prunes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1407. Skyepony (Mod)
Florida Lightning/2000 v5.3.1 Summary (Wednesday, June 01, 2011 at 10:53:23 PM EDT)

Since midnight (1373.4 mins.):
Total strokes: 63,514 (avg. 46.2/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 24,879 - 39.2% (avg. 18.1/min.)
+IC: 16,856 - 67.8% (avg. 12.3/min.)
-IC: 8023 - 32.2% (avg. 5.8/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 38,535 - 60.7% (avg. 28.1/min.)
+CG: 2608 - 6.8% (avg. 1.9/min.)
-CG: 35,927 - 93.2% (avg. 26.2/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 100 - 0.2% (avg. 0.1/min.)

Total flashes: 34,192 (avg. 24.9/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 19,993 (avg. 14.6/min.)
+CG flashes: 1899 (avg. 1.4/min.)
-CG flashes: 18,094 (avg. 13.2/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 14,099 (avg. 10.3/min.)
+IC flashes: 9070 (avg. 6.6/min.)
-IC flashes: 5029 (avg. 3.7/min.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets see if PRE-94L takes in D-Max very well and starts to develops convection over the LLC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
Hockey game was amazing, im sure orca just jumped outta his skin!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
I havent given up on this one yet...lol...



To bad NHC already has, they pretty much RIPPED it.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Numbers are up from last night, broad circulation is tightening up a bit as well.


Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
93L is one of the strangest things I have seen weather wise. I remember watching this approach Chicago, IL just a few days ago - small ball of convection. Not a drop of rain fell in Gainesville, FL from 93L. It looks like TX will get some rain in a couple of days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ryang:
Now that hurricane season is starting, I really miss Weather456. I used to love his analysis, especially on determining tropical waves in the EATL.


what happened to him?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


What Happened to him?

Weather456 left because of his new family and life in general, Thanks Levi
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1399. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
I havent given up on this one yet...lol...



I can't either it's a round blob full of lightning & night has only begun. Like I said~ give it 6 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I predict that someday we will eliminate hurricanes, just like we have eradicated smallpox, and instead of them we will get many small blobs just like 93L is, which will provide gentle beneficial rains on a regular basis to nourish our crops and wildernesses and help to moderate the heat of summer. Mankind will be able to sit in the shade of an oak and sip the sweetness of an iced tea or spirits if desired.


Keep dreaming, we shouldn't be messing with the atmosphere and doing so could really mess up the heat balance on earth.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
I predict that someday we will eliminate hurricanes, just like we have eradicated smallpox, and instead of them we will get many small blobs just like 93L is, which will provide gentle beneficial rains on a regular basis to nourish our crops and wildernesses and help to moderate the heat of summer. Mankind will be able to sit in the shade of an oak and sip the sweetness of an iced tea or spirits if desired.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Come on, bring us some rain 93L!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z maps

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236

Viewing: 1444 - 1394

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.