CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

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94. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting SouthALWX:
Most any meso low with sufficient instability can spin up a tornado. The intensity and duration of a tornado however from a system like 93L would almost certainly be small.


Usually when these cross FL the exit side seems to see any or the most waterspouts/tornadoes near the coast.
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CMC = creates monster canes
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Quoting SouthALWX:
Most any meso low with sufficient instability can spin up a tornado. The intensity and duration of a tornado however from a system like 93L would almost certainly be small.


True enough, but we all know even a small tornado can be devastating to the ones it hits.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
93L looks like it is starting to move more W than SW now.
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Quoting Patrap:
The Caribbean,,a forgotten stepchild seems,,LoL


It is actually a nice diversion for the blog I think, lol. Micro-tracking a monsoonal low would have sent some to the looney bin by now.
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Quoting alfabob:
Funny thing is that 93L looked like it was forming an eye for a frame or two when it was still over lake michigan. Most likely just a strong MCV back then, but it has had a strong rotation for a while (not all on the surface obviously).
93L is not over Lake Michigan! Are you sure you are talking about the correct system here?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Why are you covered in Thompson's Water Seal. This may keep you dry, but I don't think it's healthy.

He forgot his umbrella. So he doused himself in Thompson's Water Seal on the last blog.

Quoting RitaEvac:
post 77......WOW....
Eh? I no see a 77...
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Finally some rain is falling in central Florida! Did you get some, too, Aqua? I hope The Blob holds together and brings its good rain to the Gulf coast areas that need it so badly.

If The Blob is an indication of things to come, it will be a very interesting season.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
This is a potentially stoopid question (if so,forgive me, I'm covered in Thompson's Water Seal). But can a storm moving SW like this spin up tornadoes?

Seems like tornadoes spin up from NE moving storms.


Yes it can, and both cyclonic and anti-cyclonic tornadoes. But there is not much instability to allow for that in Florida today.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
This is a potentially stoopid question (if so,forgive me, I'm covered in Thompson's Water Seal). But can a storm moving SW like this spin up tornadoes?

Seems like tornadoes spin up from NE moving storms.
Why are you covered in Thompson's Water Seal. This may keep you dry, but I don't think it's healthy.
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post 77......WOW....
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Looks like the 12Z HWRF took XTRAP to heart, straight to Mexico :)


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 1

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -78.40 LAT: 30.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1013.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -80.30 LAT: 29.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1013.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -82.80 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1012.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -85.40 LAT: 27.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -87.40 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -89.20 LAT: 25.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -90.90 LAT: 25.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -92.60 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -93.70 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -94.70 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -95.50 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -95.90 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -96.20 LAT: 24.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -96.50 LAT: 24.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -96.80 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -97.10 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -97.80 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -98.40 LAT: 22.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -99.20 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1012.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -100.80 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1017.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 17.00
STORM DISSIPATED AT 114.0 HOURS AT ABOVE POSITION.
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11165
82. HCW
GFS@192

Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC @ 144 hours....




Are we DOOM, Ike??
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93L is a freak show, so small but yet boggles the mind
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Most any meso low with sufficient instability can spin up a tornado. The intensity and duration of a tornado however from a system like 93L would almost certainly be small.
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93L Rainbow Floater Loop

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Pat is focused on Carribean, he knows that's the one to be watching
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Quoting BobinTampa:
This is a potentially stoopid question (if so,forgive me, I'm covered in Thompson's Water Seal). But can a storm moving SW like this spin up tornadoes?

Seems like tornadoes spin up from NE moving storms.

Any storm can spin up a tornado, if the wind shear profile is right. This system really doesn't have the right shear profile that I can see, though.
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This is a potentially stoopid question (if so,forgive me, I'm covered in Thompson's Water Seal). But can a storm moving SW like this spin up tornadoes?

Seems like tornadoes spin up from NE moving storms.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Forgotton Carribean? we gotta a dangerous 93L heading for the entire gulf coast, gonna rake the shores with its sword


yuppers....scattered showers are no laughing matter...
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The Blob is so small it may be able to reform over Lake Apopka.
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Oh, CMC.... ^_^

Good to be back in the saddle.
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Quoting WxLogic:
12Z CMC... hmm.


Ummmmm...We are all Doom?
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Quoting WxLogic:
12Z CMC... hmm.


Hmmmm is right...

Early season mischief, anyone?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Agnes
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
Forgotton Carribean? we gotta a dangerous 93L heading for the entire gulf coast, gonna rake the shores with its sword
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC @ 144 hours....




Pretty crazy... but CMC sure has shown a bit more consistency than GFS at times.

Will be interesting to see the 12Z ECMWF to see if it starts coming on board with other models (GFS, CMC, NGP, etc...) on a more deeper system.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC @ 144 hours....



I see the CMC is still psychotic.

The GFS spins up a weak TS.
The CMC spins up an apocolyptocane. Somehow, I'm not at all surprised...

You know, maybe a few wishcasters are the ones actually running the CMC...

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12Z CMC... hmm.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
93L Rainbow Loop



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Quoting RitaEvac:
Cape Verd season coming outta the Northeast, then down the east coast into Florida into Gulf
Climate change is instituting the new "Cape Cod" hurricane formation season.
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59. IKE
12Z CMC @ 144 hours....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The Caribbean,,a forgotten stepchild seems,,LoL
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57. IKE
12 Z GFS @ 168 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This isn't going to get any stronger while over the peninsula. The circulation is ill defined on radar, and you can't rely on momentum to keep the storm rotating if there isn't a strong circulation to begin with.



I was just commenting on past storms. I doubt that 93L will get stronger, it's not even a TD.

However, to say that it definitely isn't is just the same as saying it definitely will. We all know nothing is definite in the tropics, 93L's existence is proof of that.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Cape Verd season coming outta the Northeast, then down the east coast into Florida into Gulf
lol
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Cape Verd season coming outta the Northeast, then down the east coast into Florida into Gulf
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did the local weather tv folks know this thing was coming? They said 30% chance of rain this a.m. on Bay News 9 and they made it sound like there would just be some extra moisture in the air that would fire off afternoon thundershowers.

Complete whiff.

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Quoting pottery:

Good Point!
I am also concerned that the Climate is so different now, that analogue years going back more than 10 years will be irrelevant as well.
We are in pretty new territory all round, Weather wise.
Historic Data is fine, but not when conditions are changing like they are.


CSU has 61% of a strike for the Caribbean by a major cane is scary. Also,they have Puerto Rico for landfall probabilities at 50% of tropical storm/ 26% of a hurricane and 8% of a major cane.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14259
fairly impressive little squall moving through Tampa.

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Quoting twincomanche:
I think this one is going to do far more good than harm with as many places needing rain.
yeah you're right about that. I was refering more to Steve McQueen's untimely death.
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Quoting TampaTom:
The blob has arrived in downtown Clearwater...


... Strong thunderstorms will affect southern Hillsborough...
Pinellas... Manatee... southwestern Polk and western Hardee counties...

National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates a line of
thunderstorms located along a line extending from Dunedin to Bowling
Green... or along a line extending from Dunedin to 7 miles north of
Wauchula... moving south at 30 mph... will affect Tampa...
Clearwater... Saint Petersburg and Riverview... until 145 PM EDT.

Gusty winds 35 to 45 mph will occur. Frequent lightning is expected.
To be safe go indoors immediately. If caught outside... find a low
spot... and stay away from tall objects. Torrential rains will reduce
visibility to near zero and will cause ponding of water on roadways.

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Quoting pottery:

I think it's a guessed outcome of the previous guesses.

And was your answer also a guess? =)
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Throw your analog years right in the garbage.
The climate is changing.
It always used to be that we'd look to the Cape Verde Islands, or maybe the windward Islands as places where cyclones-to-be passed over....this year it's Staten Island.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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