CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

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93L kinda reminds me of TD 5 last year.

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GOM WV Loop
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This is good alfabob imho as long as it doesn't end up in LA where they already have more water than they want.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Speaking of tornadoes, we have the 5th EF5 this year, the Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado.

NORMAN, Okla. (AP) The National Weather Service has upgraded a tornado that tore through central Oklahoma last week to EF5, the highest rating given to tornadoes.

The weather service in Norman said Wednesday the May 24 tornado that started in Binger and traveled 75 miles to Guthrie had maximum winds of 210 mph.

Nine people died in the storm, which traveled across four counties.

Two other tornadoes were rated EF4, one was an EF3, another an EF2 and the other an EF1. One twister is unrated.

This is the fifth EF5 tornado in the United States this year. Three EF5 twisters hit the South during an April outbreak and a tornado that devastated Joplin, Mo., also was rated EF5.

Before April, the last time an EF5 tornado occurred was in 2008.

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:



Conditions at Pocatello Regional Airport
Fair 69°F
(21°C) Humidity: 41 %
Wind Speed: calm

Barometer: 29.81 in (1005.20 mb)
Dewpoint: 44°F (7°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles

My Sister-in-law is up from Covington La and she is happy to escape the heat.
Het index in Crestview is 106f degrees
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Will 93L hit the brakes and slow down any? Or will it keep booking it, hell bent for wherever across the Gulf?
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Quoting srada:


Hey Reed..do you have a link? I have friends near Boston and they are emailing saying its bad up that way..


Henry is on top of it! I've been following his posts on the tornado.
Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Or we could be tracking Arlene and Bret by the weekend. It's kind of excited tracking systems, isn't it?


True........I have Buds from all over FL e-mailing me today wishing a me a happy 1st day of the season; they normally do not e-mail until the peak of the season for a status......... :)
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Quoting IKE:
Crestview,FL....



101 °F


Mostly Cloudy

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 36143



Conditions at Pocatello Regional Airport
Fair 69°F
(21°C) Humidity: 41 %
Wind Speed: calm

Barometer: 29.81 in (1005.20 mb)
Dewpoint: 44°F (7°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles

My Sister-in-law is up from Covington La and she is happy to escape the heat.
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POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/XX/93L
MARK
28.55N/83.25W
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
93L may well end up as a much needed rainmaker but looking at the WV loops, it is completely surrounded on all sides (except the FL Peninsula side) with very dry air.....This will be a big inhibitor to any significant development IMHO......


yet it is over water and has some organization.
interesting to say the least.
let's hope it winds up coasting into Texas.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
93L may well end up as a much needed rainmaker but looking at the WV loops, it is completely surrounded on all sides (except the FL Peninsula side) with very dry air.....This will be a big inhibitor to any significant development IMHO.....different situation in the Caribbean with plenty of moisture but a very slow burner......Still, very exciting on the first day of the season but who knows what will happen; these two areas could dissipate by the weekend and we not see anything again until late July...This is one heck of a tease from Mother Nature.


Or we could be tracking Arlene and Bret by the weekend. It's kind of excited tracking systems, isn't it?
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Quoting Patrap:
93L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


Looks like 93L is liking it in the Ole GOM.
This has been an interesting system. And for it to be here so early in the year is also of interest.
And we're not even talking about that Caribbean about-to-be-named-invest yet. Wow.
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Two possible tornadoes on the ground in Massachusetts. The southern storm has a debris ball and has caused a lot of destruction.
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I've lived in MA my whole life and have never seen two supercells like that here.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

CTC013-015-MAC013-015-027-012115-
/O.CON.KBOX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110601T2115Z/
TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WORCESTER MA-HAMPSHIRE MA-HAMPDEN MA-
458 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HAMPDEN...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHWESTERN
WORCESTER...NORTH CENTRAL WINDHAM AND NORTHEASTERN TOLLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR PALMER...OR 13 MILES EAST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WALES...BRIMFIELD...HOLLAND...BROOKFIELD AND STURBRIDGE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF
YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7239 4221 7240 4222 7205 4199 7203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 262DEG 33KT 4215 7227

$$

DOODY
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Quoting IKE:
Crestview,FL....


101 ?F
Mostly Cloudy

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 36143


102 here in Tally right now with cloudy skies from 93L's circulation attempt.....I hate it this hot and in early June............Jeeeesh.
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Impressive derbies ball associated with the tornado now heading towards Oxford MA.
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Quoting srada:


Hey Reed..do you have a link? I have friends near Boston and they are emailing saying its bad up that way..


Online newspaper from springfield, MA
Link



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hook echo

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621. IKE
Crestview,FL....

101 F
Mostly Cloudy
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595 TropicalAnalystwx13 "Anyone? The pressure on 93L?"

1014millibars as of 6pmGMT 1June.
They give out new pressures only every 6hours until after a TropicalDepression is numbered.
Then ya can switch between the ATCF and the NHC sites for pressure readings every 3hours.
More often than that, only when the HurricaneHunters are aloft.
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93L may well end up as a much needed rainmaker but looking at the WV loops, it is completely surrounded on all sides (except the FL Peninsula side) with very dry air.....This will be a big inhibitor to any significant development IMHO.....different situation in the Caribbean with plenty of moisture but a very slow burner......Still, very exciting on the first day of the season but who knows what will happen; these two areas could dissipate by the weekend and we not see anything again until late July...This is one heck of a tease from Mother Nature.
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Quoting IKE:
This blog is stretched...for some reason. The heat?


We hit the century mark today too in Hattiesburg. Broke our old record by a whopping 3 degrees.
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617. srada
Quoting reedzone:
Another destructive tornado, this time in Massachusetts.


Hey Reed..do you have a link? I have friends near Boston and they are emailing saying its bad up that way..
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june seems to be abnormally active I doubt it will remain this active for the rest of the month
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Bring it on!!

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Wonder if this is a pre cursor for TX, everything heading this way, storms coming SW over Florida, Carribean systems going NW to gulf..
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612. IKE
This blog is stretched...for some reason. The heat?
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93L is bee lining for Matagorda Bay, TX
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610. IKE

Quoting eyestalker:

Don't sweat, it's been to over 104ºF at my house twice in the past couple weeks, with heat indices of over 110. You're not the only one.
I know I'm not. Just reporting what it says. I'm not even out in it anyway.
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Quoting IKE:
It's hot outside....



100.7 °F


Scattered Clouds

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well its hot is it humid too cause thats two conditions we need for cyclones and its north of 5 thats three low shear thats 6 pre existing disturbance thats 7
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Pretty impressive that we're talking about at max two named storms developing soon. 93L has a good chance at this point but its main factor will be its size and speed, it needs to slow down to really be able to utilize the warm Gulf of Mexico and its size will make it much more vulnerable to sheer. Model support has maintained with the SW Caribbean disturbance, though the CMC is wacky with a Category 3 storm. Its very possible that the June - July months this year will be a complete reversal in activity from the last two seasons.
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Another destructive tornado, this time in Massachusetts.
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Bless it's little heart. Actually kinda held itself together (good obs, weatherfreak), guess now we sit and watch.

Poor Ike, that's hot.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
** WTNT80 EGRR 011800 ***

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.06.2011

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.8N 80.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.06.2011 13.8N 80.6W WEAK
00UTC 03.06.2011 13.5N 81.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.06.2011 15.3N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2011 15.5N 79.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.06.2011 16.4N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2011 16.5N 79.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.06.2011 16.5N 79.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.06.2011 16.7N 79.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.06.2011 16.8N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.06.2011 17.5N 77.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.06.2011 18.5N 74.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

I'm really having a hard time wrapping my head around the Caribbean blob moving NNE and NE at this time of year.
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601. xcool
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deadly tornado in Massachusetts!!

live coverage: Link
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599. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone? The pressure on 93L?


Closest buoy is 29.98mb & falling fast..

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GOM untouched no more
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597. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTNT80 EGRR 011800 ***

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.06.2011

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.8N 80.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.06.2011 13.8N 80.6W WEAK
00UTC 03.06.2011 13.5N 81.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.06.2011 15.3N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2011 15.5N 79.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.06.2011 16.4N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2011 16.5N 79.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.06.2011 16.5N 79.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.06.2011 16.7N 79.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.06.2011 16.8N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.06.2011 17.5N 77.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.06.2011 18.5N 74.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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DING, you have now entered your final destination...
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Anyone? The pressure on 93L?
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Welcome to the Gulf of Mexico, 93L, enjoy your luxourous atmosphere, and feel free to become your maxium potential.

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