CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

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lordy.. politics & trolls and accusations of wishcasting and downcasting and the first day of hurricane season aint even done.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting Chicklit:
93L has been a blessing. Let's hope it continues to do its good work by dropping rain in places that need it badly.


We need it bad in Louisiana but gosh darnit its heading to Mexico just like everything else did last year lol
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Quoting pressureman:
The area moving into the GOM now has 2 major factors why this will never develop into anything and will disipate over time...First factor is the strong winds out of the east at 30-40 knots traveling with this system and the other reason is there is dry air out there and that will keep anything from trying to develop...So the GOM can rest at ease this is just going to be some rain for probably the lower texas coast...


Again.. SHOW ME PROOF!!!!

CIMMS highly dissagrees with you and others that are saying high wind shear. 5-10 knots.. so very high :P
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93L WV Loop dee Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


He just did a new TV commercial telling average Floridians to "invite" an out of state friend to Florida cause it creates jobs.......I thought his main platform was that "He" was going to create the jobs......LOL
....just what Florida needs....more Yankees.
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738. JRRP
Quoting eyestalker:

va a ser, solo dale un poco de tiempo probablamente menos de 2 dias

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

Es cuestion de tiempo que 94L va a ser realidad.

Is a matter of time,that 94L will be tagged.


bueno...
well...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6155
Quoting eyestalker:

Hmm, is he democrat or republican?


You didn't vote in your own gubernatorial election?
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I'm a bit confused here on what to think. I know that the old LLC may potentially be on land, but there has to be something forming under that blow-up of convection, right? It does appear that the old LLC is in NE FL, but I may not be looking at the right thing.

Ugggh.....
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PLEASE tell me where StormW is now????
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Live feed.
7News NY
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
I love to see the blog hot.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
The area moving into the GOM now has 2 major factors why this will never develop into anything and will disipate over time...First factor is the strong winds out of the east at 30-40 knots traveling with this system and the other reason is there is dry air out there and that will keep anything from trying to develop...So the GOM can rest at ease this is just going to be some rain for probably the lower texas coast...
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Por que hablan Español?
Why are you speaking Spanish?


Because his real name is Janiel and he's been here before...
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93L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting aquak9:
Now, depending on the ULL, there could be a whole new LLC form over the gulf, UNDER all that healthy convection. But as far as the ACTUAL LLC, that got tagged yesterday? That "point on the map" is what I'm talking about.


Just looking at the satellite loops, I agree with this. The original LLC is to the north-east of all that convection, still over Florida, but I think there's a new LLC forming under all the convection.

In fact, I think you can see this better if you speed the loop right up.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1005.9 reading on the coast of NE Nicaragua.



And, Aqua is quite correct the center of 93L is in the center of Florida NE of Tampa Bay, this image is about 40 minutes old.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting beell:
click graphics to open in new window.
2hr surface pressure change






That LLC is not on land.
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723. IKE
GFS dries up 93L as it heads toward Mexico.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
721. IKE

Quoting eyestalker:

StormW was always the opposite of a downcaster. He always predicted development and strengthening and westward motion with every storm, but the ridge wouldn't pump.
Just talking about the "RGB loop".
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thunderstorm activity associated with 93L will likely begin to weaken within the next few hours. Satellite imagery reveals a few lower-level outflow boundaries exiting the southern semicircle of our system. These outflow boundaries can be seen clearly on radar imagery.


How you know all this at your age amazes me.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
718. beell
click graphics to open in new window.
2hr surface pressure change




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Quoting Patrap:
Gov Scott from Fla, signed a "No Hurricane in Fla" Bill,,so you guys should be safe.

Teachers,,well,,good luck.


Seeing his name makes my skin crawl, grrrr.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
716. IKE

Quoting alfabob:

I'm 99% sure I'm correct about this and NHC is wrong. The MCV has been to the east of the forming LLC the entire time. Now it is detached and this is what you are looking at. Surface observations show 30kt gusts @ 90 degrees where I'm saying LLC is at. Radar isn't lying either.
***heads to the kitchen to start up supper***
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Patrap:
Gov Scott from Fla, signed a "No Hurricane in Fla" Bill,,so you guys should be safe.

Teachers,,well,,good luck.


rofl
That egghead is currently the most hated man in Florida. Evil I tell ya.
We get a hurricane in Florida and his policy will probably be 'survival of the fittest.'
If you're on the losing end then you deserve to be.
Yup that's our gov.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
Here are some useful bookmarks for the hurricane season I collected over the past hurricane season. Just look up how to import an HTML into your favorites/bookmarks.

Here they are
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting aquak9:
you guys are killing me!

ok, take a look at an RGB loop. Slow it down, really slow it down. Don't let your eyes fool you: Low, to low/mid circ is still over land. You can see the upper level convection so vigorous, moving quickly to the SW. Of course we wanna see the convection as being the MAIN circ...but it's a bit decoupled.

Quite really, actually, if it hasn't even tried to open up a bit.

(geez) ok, I looked at NHC. Here's what they say, from just a coupla hours ago:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 20 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THAT BASICALLY MEANS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING FIRST IN ADVANCE OF WHERE
THE ACTUAL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS.

I'm 99% sure I'm correct about this and NHC is wrong. The MCV has been to the east of the forming LLC the entire time. Now it is detached and this is what you are looking at. Surface observations show 30kt gusts @ 90 degrees where I'm saying LLC is at. Radar isn't lying either. LLC is at the SE quadrant of the convection, needs to build convection and more winds in the SE section of the LLC.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Thunderstorm activity associated with 93L will likely begin to weaken within the next few hours. Satellite imagery reveals a few lower-level outflow boundaries exiting the southern semicircle of our system. These outflow boundaries can be seen clearly on radar imagery.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting aquak9:
you guys are killing me!

ok, take a look at an RGB loop. Slow it down, really slow it down. Don't let your eyes fool you: Low, to low/mid circ is still over land. You can see the upper level convection so vigorous, moving quickly to the SW. Of course we wanna see the convection as being the MAIN circ...but it's a bit decoupled.

Quite really, actually, if it hasn't even tried to open up a bit.

(geez) ok, I looked at NHC. Here's what they say, from just a coupla hours ago:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 20 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THAT BASICALLY MEANS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING FIRST IN ADVANCE OF WHERE
THE ACTUAL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS.


I still think that the COC is under the convection, or very close to it. Didn't see anything different on RGB.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting RitaEvac:
good news since the market is crashing, oil is down

WTI Crude Oil
$99.64 ▼3.06
Keep on crashing !!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
Now, depending on the ULL, there could be a whole new LLC form over the gulf, UNDER all that healthy convection. But as far as the ACTUAL LLC, that got tagged yesterday? That "point on the map" is what I'm talking about.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Welcome to the Gulf of Mexico, 93L, enjoy your luxourous atmosphere, and feel free to become your maxium potential.



Ummmm. How bout just some rain? Good evenin' everyone.
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704. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
you guys are killing me!

ok, take a look at an RGB loop. Slow it down, really slow it down. Don't let your eyes fool you: Low, to low/mid circ is still over land. You can see the upper level convection so vigorous, moving quickly to the SW. Of course we wanna see the convection as being the MAIN circ...but it's a bit decoupled.

Quite really, actually, if it hasn't even tried to open up a bit.

(geez) ok, I looked at NHC. Here's what they say, from just a coupla hours ago:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 20 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THAT BASICALLY MEANS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING FIRST IN ADVANCE OF WHERE
THE ACTUAL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS.
Hmmm.....StormW?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
673. aquak9 9:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
I ain't downcasting nothing, Ike. But that cake ain't ready to come outta the oven yet.

That horse ain't left the barn yet.

That's dog's still layin' on the porch.


And that LLC's still over land. :)



and the weather weenie hasn't hidden behind the shower curtain yet....
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Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
you guys are killing me!

ok, take a look at an RGB loop. Slow it down, really slow it down. Don't let your eyes fool you: Low, to low/mid circ is still over land. You can see the upper level convection so vigorous, moving quickly to the SW. Of course we wanna see the convection as being the MAIN circ...but it's a bit decoupled.

Quite really, actually, if it hasn't even tried to open up a bit.

(geez) ok, I looked at NHC. Here's what they say, from just a coupla hours ago:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 20 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THAT BASICALLY MEANS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING FIRST IN ADVANCE OF WHERE
THE ACTUAL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS.
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Springfield, MA tornado.



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699. IKE
Latest NAM run shows virtually no rain over the Florida panhandle from 93L.

GFS doesn't either. Thanks 93L. Guess someone else will be buying you a steak dinner.

:(
:(

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Gov Scott from Fla, signed a "No Hurricane in Fla" Bill,,so you guys should be safe.

Teachers,,well,,good luck.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
cmc makes carribean system HUGE


CMC hates everybody.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't think so...


I agree with you TAx13.
Loop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

Es cuestion de tiempo que 94L va a ser realidad.

Is a matter of time,that 94L will be tagged.

Por que hablan Español?
Why are you speaking Spanish?
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It is the MCV that is on the east coast of Florida, upper atmosphere has broken into 2x 200mb anti-cyclones. 93L now has its own anti-cyclone which is being aided by the ULL to the south. Both are becoming detached as the LLC enters the gulf, and current direction is W/WSW.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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