CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1694 - 1644

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

1694. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:

What's up, pot? And the rest? Resident curmudgeon? Fans of Matt Groenig? Various model-sitters, armchair mets, obsequious types, Henny Youngman pretenders, and all the rest?

I suspect 94L will be birthed no later than tomorrow morning if things continue to ever-so-slowly wrap up down south. It's good to get back into the swing of things.

Mostly. ;-)


Well, that is a bit of a cheeky hello. Perhaps I am wrong, but I noted a bit of sarcasm there. Don't feel badly, Nea. Not all of us can be blessed with good looks, intelligence, wit and humor. Thankfully I was, but in your case, 1 out of 4 isn't bad. I think you are very intelligent. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1693. effdbee
That loop of the ITCZ is interesting. Is there commonly a counterclockwise rotation of the ITCZ over or near Central America?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1692. IKE
Hey SAINTHURRIFAN....have a nice day.

Hey...I'm still using a push mower! And yes...I did cut yards when I was a kid with one.

As far as cell phones...I see about 15-20% of people driving...with one attached to their ear. I don't get the fascination with them. I guess killing 2 birds with 1 stone....driving somewhere and talking to someone.

77.5 outside my window.....right now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1690. cg2916
Wow, 1689 comments!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1689. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


the chance of Whatnot is real. STAY SAFE!

I'll keep trying....
Thanks, and you too!

Time to get Active around here. BBL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

Oh well....nothing is forever.


Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1050
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use





Second pic...Nightmares for sure this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1686. Bitmap7
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use





Lol a the naruto one. Super powered homer.
Also the rasegan in his hand is in the shape of a donut...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use


Your second one is actually pretty terrifying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1684. MahFL
Quoting Gearsts:
CMC takes this as a cat 7 towards Cuba then East out to Sea ^^


LMAO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning ike dry as a bone isnt it.I think people fail to realize that a lot of young kids are on the blog now.School is out. Hey, at least they are not out getting in trouble lol.Ike we must be getting old.back when we were teens mom and dad had chores for us to do plus we actually liked spending time outside.What ever happened to fishing, playing ball or the worst sin for the modern youth a summer job.Remember dragging the push mower around, or hey: collecting 32 ounce bottles for change? You know Im glad I grew up when I did .Thier were no computers, no cell phones, no xboxes.We in return had long lasting friendships and quality family time.I"am blessed my 17 year old stays busy all summer with football and soccer workouts.I'm truely blessed they like to fish and enjoy the outdoors.I also keep them busy helping thier mother and I keep up a 1 acre vegetable garden.Nothing like picking peas,butterbeans etc to get them out of the house lol.Also when I was young it was a requirement, not a choice to spend a week at vacation bible school.OH the good ole days.I really don't blame the kids, its the parents I blame.It is easy to give the kids a computer a cell phone, and electronic games, then to take the extra effort of quality family time and activities.Anyway Ike 0-0-0 I hope maybe the post's will decrease a bit when thier is nothing remotely threatening.Ike God Bless and take care you are in my prayers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocBen:
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?

NAMED??? Neither
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1680. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocBen:
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?

"Gulf-Blob" has as much a chance of reaching TS strength as Paris Hilton does of being elected President. Maybe less. So given that "Carib-Blob" is in a better (and increasingly healthier) environment, if either one ever gets a name, it will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just saw this one this is wild give me a hurricane to run from anyday as to have to deal with these.


Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1677. pottery
Quoting DocBen:
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?

Carib Blob.
On Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1676. DocBen
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1675. pottery
The fact that the first Invest to really grab everyone's attention came from somewhere up in the Great Lakes area, and lurched south along the east Coast across Florida, makes me feel that we will see some Strange Stuff and Whatnot this season.
I believe in Portents, you know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1674. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:

What's up, pot? And the rest? Resident curmudgeon? Fans of Matt Groenig? Various model-sitters, armchair mets, obsequious types, Henny Youngman pretenders, and all the rest?

I suspect 94L will be birthed no later than tomorrow morning if things continue to ever-so-slowly wrap up down south. It's good to get back into the swing of things.

Mostly. ;-)

Doing fine here.
Enjoying the way that the Season has come out of the blocks with a sprint.
Unusual to see so little SAL over the Atl for this time of the year.
And there is plenty moisture where it matters, right now.
Favourable shear, nice warm water, what more could an armchair met desire?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning/Evening

It is cool to see 93L's circlulation twin off to the south from the major storm cell to the north.
Could the north cell form its own circluation or will it get pulled into the southern circulation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1672. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
morning all

todays numbers
0.0.0.
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

'Morning, Nea.

What's up, pot? And the rest? Resident curmudgeon? Fans of Matt Groenig? Various model-sitters, armchair mets, obsequious types, Henny Youngman pretenders, and all the rest?

I suspect 94L will be birthed no later than tomorrow morning if things continue to ever-so-slowly wrap up down south. It's good to get back into the swing of things.

Mostly. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1670. pottery
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...

Hopefully you guys have noticed in the TPW Mimic, the abnormal latitude gain of the ITCZ West of Africa:



Sure hope is not the signs of something worst and unusual down the road (close to August and on).

Yeah, that's an interesting feature/bump there.
Maybe we will see the 'something worse' BEFORE August?
I hope not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now this is an intresting setup, not likely to happen but it would be petty cool to see it happen "Thats just me though"



Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1667. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, that's the planet killer. The blog killer is an overabundance of wannabe comedians during season. QED... ;-)

'Morning, Nea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1666. IKE

Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, that's the planet killer. The blog killer is an overabundance of wannabe comedians during season. QED... ;-)
Oh well....nothing is forever.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1665. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Hopefully you guys have noticed in the TPW Mimic, the abnormal latitude gain of the ITCZ West of Africa:



Sure hope is not the signs of something worst and unusual down the road (close to August and on).
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
I'm actually quite surprised that they even mentioned 93L, usually when they give something 0% they don't label it in the next TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1663. HCW
I hope that they get recon out there . This is very impressive :)

Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
Ike,20% means invest may be around the corner or not is always the case?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
Quoting IKE:

The blog killer..... Global Warming:(

Nah, that's the planet killer. The blog killer is an overabundance of wannabe comedians during season. Almost makes me want to switch to a Simpsons avatar... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1660. IKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1658. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1657. pottery
Hot and hazy morning here at 11n 61w, while we wait on the next T-Wave.
The stuff south of Haiti looks like it is going to hang around there for a while, waiting on who-knows-what.
If it stays thereabouts, and gets fed by even more moisture, and the shear keeps low, it could become quite unpleasant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1655. IKE

Quoting cg2916:


*Leaves blog*
Another one bites the dust...headed down the road. Thumb in the air.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DestinJeff:
In case anyone is wondering why 93L failed to materialize into TD Scattered Showers, and why the group of clouds in the Caribbean continues only to tease the eager, please refer to this handy visual aid. I found this while doing some research for my dissertation in a little-known place on the Information Super Highway called google.com.

Behold:



In the words of my hero Professor Homer Simpson PHD. "Dophh it's the chart"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:
AL, 93, 2011060200, , BEST, 0, 285N, 845W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 60, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

If anyone knows how to decode this, please do.

I think it says at 00Z, it was at 28.5 N, 84.5 W, 25 knots, 1014mb, a low pressure system, and beyond there it's gibberish.


Decoder
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
Quoting cg2916:
Is it just me, or do I see some spin in the SW Caribbean in this image?



I don't exactly think it means LLC, but it's interesting.


Definitive spin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1651. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


makes me want to hold my forehead with my fingertips just thinking about it

hahahahah, Brilliant!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1649. Gearsts
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

.SYNOPSIS...1008 MB LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W
ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD JAMAICA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA THROUGH MON.
A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FRI AND
INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN SAT. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRES SUN IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THAT
WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MON.

Another low? the blob?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1648. cg2916
Quoting IKE:

The blog killer..... Global Warming:(


*Leaves blog*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1647. pottery
Quoting cg2916:


AGW?

I think it means "Always Getting Wasted", as in the Planet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1646. cg2916
Is it just me, or do I see some spin in the SW Caribbean in this image?



I don't exactly think it means LLC, but it's interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1645. IKE

Quoting cg2916:


AGW?
The blog killer..... Global Warming:(
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

Viewing: 1694 - 1644

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.