CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting eyestalker:
IF both 93L and the Caribbean feature develop...I can honestly tell you we're going to have a more active season than 2010. Last year we didn't get a single CV storm until quite late in the year...almost the end of August...whereas in 2008 we had em comin' consistently from the beginning of July to the end of September. Overall 2008 was a MUCH more fun year to track because it was more of a spread-out season similar to 2005 as far as activity and the tracks were certainly enticing compared to last year's parade of fish storms.


If by 'active' you mean total number of storms, I wouldn't be so sure, neutral/2nd year La Ninas tend to have a much less active Cape Verde season. May all be 'fish storms', but it sure racks up the numbers.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Probably Upgrade the % to 40 to 60%. Depending on what the Hurricane Hunters find will determine if we have TD 1 tomorrow...


I concur.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting MrstormX:
Hey in another 30 minutes we will get an update from the NHC.
Probably Upgrade the % to 40 to 60%. Depending on what the Hurricane Hunters find will determine if we have TD 1 tomorrow...
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
the Surface map shows it either has a closed surface Circulation, or it has a very close to closed circulation.
Look back to Page 18, Comment 864
Note the trough still attached to the system extending towards the northeast...not an indicative sign of a system approaching tropical depression status. Additionally, surface observations would not support a closed circulation at this time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:
Come on 93L...bring me a shower.....





The carrot is sure dangling there.
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Hey in another 30 minutes we will get an update from the NHC.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/XX/93L
MARK
28.55N/83.85W
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
the Surface map shows it either has a closed surface Circulation, or it has a very close to closed circulation.
Look back to Page 18, Comment 864


True.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
934. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W WILL CONTINUE W MERGING
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 81W TONIGHT. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THU MERGING WITH THE TROUGHING IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUALLY MOVING N ALONG 81W FRI THROUGH MON.
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I can see the cmc has forgotten its meds this morning.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not quite yet. No evidence of a closed surface circulation at the moment.
the Surface map shows it either has a closed surface Circulation, or it has a very close to closed circulation.
Look back to Page 18, Comment 864
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Quoting kimoskee:
Met Service just issued a flash flood watch for the entire island (Jamaica) until 5pm tomorrow evening.

Thanks for the info, I didn't hear about it.
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Press release:

THE Meteorological Service has issued a flash flood watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 pm tomorrow.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, are expected to continue affecting most parishes this evening and continuing into the weekend.




With flooding possible, the Met Service is warning residents to take precautions, pay attention to further updates and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or a warning issued.

"An Area of low pressure over the Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica is merging with a tropical wave also south of Jamaica. As a result, the low pressure area has intensified through the course of today. Satellite imagery indicates cloudy conditions across the island while radar indicates widespread light to moderate showers affecting most parishes," explained the Met Service.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution, as strong winds and rough sea conditions are expected in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of the island.


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Hi, hope all's been well for everyone. First "look see" of the season and we already have some cooking going on... I see lots of blogging here ahead. Thanks for the weather info and stay safe all. Be seeing ya.
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Met Service just issued a flash flood watch for the entire island (Jamaica) until 5pm tomorrow evening.
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Quoting eyestalker:

Alas, remember the last time we had 2 named storms by the end of the first week of June...not too long ago...that happened to be the hurricane season in which everyhing that could have developed didn't develop, especially early in the season and for most of October. e.g. 93L, 96L, 97L, 99L, etc, then in October 90L, 92L, 93L etc all looked promising before Noel finally broke free. Despite so many dissapointing failures we still managed to squeeze out 15 named storms and 2 Cat. 5 hurricanes out of that year...


2007 was pretty active total-wise and was horrible for areas like Mexico because of Dean and Felix but the US wasn't greatly hit--it was actually relatively lucky that year compared to some of the other active years. Only one hurricane made landfall and like 3 TS's, a bit more busy in the US than last year but not by a whole lot.
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wunderkid, there has been Tropical Depressions with pressure more then 1010 MB, Claudette(2009) had a pressure of 1011 when it formed, and only got to a pressure of 1006 MB, and 50 MPH.
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Quoting cg2916:
50 Maple is the command post, ignore everything I said


Isn't it 15 Maple?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting j2008:
Carrabean disturbance or 93, which will develop to a tropical depression first??

If 93L will develop, I think it will be first. Storms like the Caribbean disturbance usually take a while to form.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5085
921. IKE

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Still firing convection, could happen....

Have my fingers crossed for you!
Thanks. I'm at 97.3 outside my window @ 6:01 pm CDST.
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Do I see a small burst of convection in the last few satellite frames?
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Quoting IKE:
Come on 93L...bring me a shower.....




Still firing convection, could happen....

Have my fingers crossed for you!
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting eyestalker:

Because that solution is unrealistic and not going to happen because the ridge is too strong and the pattern is flattening. pre-94L will likely move into the Gulf on a general northward track.


Yeah, just like last Arlene we had in '05.
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Another one. ("Funnel") WTF
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914. j2008
Carrabean disturbance or 93, which will develop to a tropical depression first??
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50 Maple is the command post, ignore everything I said
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912. IKE
Come on 93L...bring me a shower.....


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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
93L has all or most of the Characteristics to be classified Tropical Depression One... Banding, Strong Convection, Surface Circulation, Surface Low, Over Water Now...
Not quite yet. No evidence of a closed surface circulation at the moment.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Tornado reports so far today.

2030 WESTFIELD HAMPDEN MA 4214 7276
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN SHAKER ROAD AREA. (BOX)

2032 SPRINGFIELD HAMPDEN MA 4212 7254
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND ONE HALF MILE FROM MAIN STREET. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. (BOX)

2122 STURBRIDGE WORCESTER MA 4210 7206
STATE POLICE NORTHAMPTON REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN STURBRIDGE ON INTERSTATE 84 EXIT. CARS OVERTURNED. (BOX)

2124 STURBRIDGE WORCESTER MA 4210 7206
STATE POLICE NORTHAMPTON REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN STURBRIDGE ON INTERSTATE 84 EXIT. CARS OVERTURNED. (BOX)

2207 WESTFIELD HAMPDEN MA 4214 7276
ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTED TO POLICE A TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SOUTHWEST PORTION OF WESTIFIELD. (BOX)

2220 SPRINGFIELD HAMPDEN MA 4212 7254
STATE POLICE REPORT TORNADO IN NORTH SPRINGFIELD AREA. (BOX)
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Quoting eyestalker:

Because that solution is unrealistic and not going to happen because the ridge is too strong and the pattern is flattening. pre-94L will likely move into the Gulf on a general northward track.


It looks like it may well move further north-west, but I still think that all the models solutions should be considered.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Shear really dropping in the SW Carib.....



I told you guys that it was and it will
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Quoting eyestalker:
Hmm...this could be another year like 2005 where nearly everything that "could" develop does.


Well, these two at the minute could both develop, and if they do then it's a very early time to have our second storm. Still, it's very difficult to make a comparison to 2005, that was an extremely rare occurance.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Shear really dropping in the SW Carib.....

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and pressures still a bit too high plus I don't remeber having a TD with pressures above 1010mb
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
nope sorry not with that trough still attached look at comment #864 to see this trough
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Night is coming to that area soon,,and with a MCI Event,,Urgent influx of S & R is critical.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting eyestalker:

That takes it out to sea so that model will be discounted for now.


Why should we discount a model just because it moves a system out to sea?
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Mass Casulty Event Reported in West Springfield:

MASS CASUALTY
06/01/11 18:11 (WEST SPRINGFIELD - ) FIRE DEPARTMENT ON SCENE SEVERE DAMAGE FROM A TORNADO, REQUEST MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT AND EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES TASK FORCE ON A RUSH. [NHA057]
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
898. j2008
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
93L has officially made the crossing and is looking very well, Wouldnt be surprised to see a Tropical Depression Later Tonight(11 PM) or Early tomorrow morning(5 AM, 11 AM)

I was thinking the same thing.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Bitmap7:


Don't you see the pic? The nhc has now listed a 10% chance of development on both the Caribbean and Florida system on the first day of the hurricane season.


Thought you were going somewhere else with the discussion. My bad. LOL
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I love how the weather channel's tropical update involved talking about very strong shear in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, which is wrong, involved him circling the area of low pressure in the Caribbean as the convection to the north-east rather than the actual centre just of Nicaragua, and then said that the Caribbean disturbance could not track north, despite all the models showing it, yep, moving north.


I'm glad its not just me. Lol. Wow. And I think my locals watched that too. Geeeze!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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