CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Haha, how could anybody be worried about that wee bunny.
I've seen reletivley small storms turn into nasty storms.So don't be fooled.Us your brain...not your eyes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1042. Titoxd
Quoting guaguapichincha:
Hi, I've got an off-topic question about radar.

On the radar maps from weather underground, it defaults to base reflectivity. What do I choose to see wind velocities, to try to spot tornadoes?

We are having tornadoes today here in western Massachusetts, which is very unusual for us.


On the radar screen, click on "Select radar type", then select the one you want (in this case, base radial velocity). You get something like the following image:

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1040. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


0-0-0:)
1 day finished...
182 to go....and it's over.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1039. Levi32
Quoting guaguapichincha:
Hi, I've got an off-topic question about radar.

On the radar maps from weather underground, it defaults to base reflectivity. What do I choose to see wind velocities, to try to spot tornadoes?

We are having tornadoes today here in western Massachusetts, which is very unusual for us.


Choose "Storm-relative Mean Radial velocity, 0.5 degrees" from the "Select radar type" menu.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I love how the weather channel's tropical update involved talking about very strong shear in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, which is wrong, involved him circling the area of low pressure in the Caribbean as the convection to the north-east rather than the actual centre just of Nicaragua, and then said that the Caribbean disturbance could not track north, despite all the models showing it, yep, moving north.
You know you seem to know more then the experts they said what i told you earlier the strong shear in the GOM...So you should just take over the NHC and we would be better off lol
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting IKE:
...10 PERCENT...

...10 PERCENT...






...Over the next 48 hours, give both of the systems 12-48 hours an I would guess each one of their precentages would rise in that time period.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1036. scott39
Ike... Do you have your shield activated? Put it down for about 24-72 hours.... so that little blob can rain on someone!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1035. IKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
93L 10%
pre94L 10%
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1033. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:
0-0-0:)


0-0-0:)
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Ain't dead yet.
DvorakLoop
oh yeah, watching Die Hard.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11358
While I didn't actually think they would lower it, I'm not surprised. I guess no one wins the poll.
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Quoting Patrap:
Itsa Bunny Wabbit



Wow! You're right! Just missing the ears...
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As I've said before.Nuetral years usually get of to a fast start.Seems that this year is no exception.I wouldn't be surprise to see at least two storms for in July.Hey 2005,2008(which were both nuetral years) produced more than two storms in July.So why not this year?.
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Quoting Patrap:
Itsa Bunny Wabbit



Haha, how could anybody be worried about that wee bunny.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1027. IKE
...10 PERCENT...

...10 PERCENT...






Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1026. cg2916
Quoting Patrap:
Itsa Bunny Wabbit



It is a bunny wabbit!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
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1024. Bitmap7
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not surprising, circulation is elongated and the environment it is in isn't the most favorable.


also its pressure is 1015mb; not a lot of heavy convection; lack of model support. Oh yeah there is a lot of dry air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi, I've got an off-topic question about radar.

On the radar maps from weather underground, it defaults to base reflectivity. What do I choose to see wind velocities, to try to spot tornadoes?

We are having tornadoes today here in western Massachusetts, which is very unusual for us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1022. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not surprised with the 10% on 93L.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not surprising, circulation is elongated and the environment it is in isn't the most favorable.


Well, the shear is actually pretty low and the SSTs are alright. I guess dry air is a big problem though.

Now, we've have plenty of elongated circulations before, and at least is has a circulation.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1021. Patrap
Itsa Bunny Wabbit

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting alfabob:

"facts"->opinions, because it isn't there according to the actual observations.


It's the opinion of the NHC/TPC and I respect that, sorry.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting cg2916:
Downgraded? What? No way!
Not surprising, circulation is elongated and the environment it is in isn't the most favorable.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1017. Ryuujin
Wow, the rain is just evaporating before it hits the panhandle. Its pretty crazy to see that.
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1016. IKE
0-0-0:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Wow 10% didn't see that one coming....
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1014. Patrap
Double Down Low from the NHC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
The GTWO just came out...still 10% for Caribbean and also 10% now for the Floridian blob.
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Not surprised with the 10% on 93L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
1011. cg2916
I remember in 2008 everytime there was a new TWO, 10 ppl posted
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1010. Bitmap7





(it gets more intense as it continues)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012339
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Good rule of thumb is add 36 to 48 hours to what you would normally think.
People go mad expecting that a storm is suppose to form on their time....sorry not gonna happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1007. cg2916
Downgraded? What? No way!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1006. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1005. Levi32
Good evening.

Key phrasing in the latest TWO:

"ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. "
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Not me


It'd probably either stay the same or be upped to about 20 or 30%, IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1003. cg2916
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So the possibilties for 3 storms in June:
93L~ Has a 50% chance as of currently

Pre-94L~ Has a 60% Chance in its lifetime and has great model support

Possible 95L~ 3 hurricane Models(GFS, CMC, NOGAPS) support the formation of a low Northeast of Puerto Rico, which will head ENE, or NE And Head out to sea,
Has a Chance as of model support of 10% as of the latest model runs


It's a stretch
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012339
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
So the possibilties for 3 storms in June:
93L~ Has a 50% chance as of currently

Pre-94L~ Has a 60% Chance in its lifetime and has great model support

Possible 95L~ 3 hurricane Models(GFS, CMC, NOGAPS) support the formation of a low Northeast of Puerto Rico, which will head ENE, or NE And Head out to sea,
Has a Chance as of model support of 10% as of the latest model runs
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Quoting IKE:

It's drying up before it reaches me:(




crap
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Quoting alfabob:

Then why are winds moving @100 degrees at the buoy @ (28.500 N 84.517W)? 93L looks to be WSW of Tampa.
Could be winds induced by the thunderstorms and not necessarily the circulation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting eyestalker:

I'll look at 93L again when the T-number rises to 2.0.


I doubt it will ever get there, could surprise though.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
93L.INVEST

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
90W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
98A.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere
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Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Wed, Jun 01, 2011.

As of Wed, 01 Jun 2011 23:30:01 GMT
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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