CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well i'm off for tonight.Good-bye everyone.Have a nice evening.


You too Wash.
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Well i'm off for tonight.Good-bye everyone.Have a nice evening.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i smell JFV on the blogs


JFV?
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Quoting zoomiami:
We appear to be stuck in the cloud free area between North Florida and Southern Cuba. Would certainly like a day full of rain here. Getting tired of filling up the swimming pool.

The breeze from the pressure between the systems is very nice though.
Hey, zoo. We actually got rain for most of the first part of the day!!!! Plus continued easterlies kept the rest of the day cool... great stuff if you can get it... the fact that it rained here at all today is proof that the atmosphere is moistening. I wouldn't mind another couple of mornings with some early morning showers...
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Hey, Storm! How ya doin?


WHERE, WHERE?????

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Quoting HotBreeze:
Good evening, =).


Hello. New user?
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1287. Grothar
Here is the UKMET

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
i smell JFV on the blogs
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Quoting hurricane23:


To add to this 2008 was an active season and also followed the peak of a La Nina episode. However, the year with the second largest outbreak ever, 1974, had 7 total tropical cyclones and 4 hybrid-type subtropical cyclones. Of the 7 tropical cyclones, 4 were hurricanes and no major (Cat 3+) hurricanes occurred. 1974 also followed a strong La Nina...in fact peaking stronger than the than the episodes of winter 2007/ 2008 and winter 2010/2011. While evidence suggests the season following the peak of a La Nina may result in both increased tornado activity across the Midwest and Ohio Valley and a more active hurricane season, 1974 stands out as a rather "quiet" hurricane season. The presence of so many subtropical storms also suggests wind shear was higher than normal during the summer...which is not a La Nina trait. There is the possibility another longer-term cycle was at play, tied to salinity cycles in the North Atlantic and rainfall across northwest Africa (which was bone dry during the 1970s). Those cycles have reversed, allowing increased rainfall in northwest Africa (providing more of the tropical weather disturbances responsible for tropical cyclone formations in the deep tropics).

Adrian
1974 was also apart of the "quite" cycle when it came to hurricane activity...
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Quoting PcolaDan:


She said old members, so I was asking how she knew their ages, not when......


Oh never mind! The joke is lost. :(







see - more idle banter


Sorry, Bud. When the posts are flyin' fast, one doesn't have much time to formulate a response, before the window of opportunity closes. :)
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting HotBreeze:
Good evening, =).


Como estas?
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Quoting Patrap:


Looks pretty good tonight...
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1281. Bitmap7
Quoting Grothar:
The GFS in now coming on board with development of some kind.



It gets more intense than that in the longer run at the nhc site. The UKmet is onboard with development also.
Link
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Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Rain in Texas?
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1279. Patrap
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1277. Melagoo
Wunderground should hold a Hurricane prediction contest
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
For anyone who keeps up with hurricanecity, Tampa was picked as this year's ticking time bomb. I hope the complacent people wake up this year.


As is always the case, they never will until it actually happens. So sad.
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1275. Patrap
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey, two blobs in the Caribbean. It really looks like it is trying to do something.



Am I going to have to be the one to point out the obvious?
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What's going on in here? Any blobs spun up to Cat 5s yet?
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1272. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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holy cow, day 1 of the season and the 2nd Doc entry in one day already has 1,250+ comments. was gone for just a few hours and wanted an update on 93L, which also has a hefty pace!
got some catching up to do :)
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Quoting Grothar:
The GFS in now coming on board with development of some kind.



GFS has been on it for a bit.

Basically, all models are on board, questions are, where will it go and how strong will it be?
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
For anyone who keeps up with hurricanecity, Tampa was picked as this year's ticking time bomb. I hope the complacent people wake up this year.
I feel as though alot of people along the coastal areas have become complacent due to lack of storm activity...
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


You should see it on every post, Dan.

"Member Since"....


She said old members, so I was asking how she knew their ages, not when......


Oh never mind! The joke is lost. :(







see - more idle banter
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Last post for the day. What to expect:
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN....
A 1008 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 12N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AROUND THE LOW FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
MORE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT N AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND MERGE
WITH THE SURFACE LOW.


From the NHC 8 p.m. Tropical Weather (Atlantic) Discussion.
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Hey Grothar!
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1265. Grothar
The GFS in now coming on board with development of some kind.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm lets see 2003,2004,2008,1974,2008 all had above average counts of tornadoes.And that same year a storm or hurricane made landfall.Could their be a correlation?.Yeah maybe.But I need to do more research.


To add to this 2008 was an active season and also followed the peak of a La Nina episode. However, the year with the second largest outbreak ever, 1974, had 7 total tropical cyclones and 4 hybrid-type subtropical cyclones. Of the 7 tropical cyclones, 4 were hurricanes and no major (Cat 3+) hurricanes occurred. 1974 also followed a strong La Nina...in fact peaking stronger than the than the episodes of winter 2007/ 2008 and winter 2010/2011. While evidence suggests the season following the peak of a La Nina may result in both increased tornado activity across the Midwest and Ohio Valley and a more active hurricane season, 1974 stands out as a rather "quiet" hurricane season. The presence of so many subtropical storms also suggests wind shear was higher than normal during the summer...which is not a La Nina trait. There is the possibility another longer-term cycle was at play, tied to salinity cycles in the North Atlantic and rainfall across northwest Africa (which was bone dry during the 1970s). Those cycles have reversed, allowing increased rainfall in northwest Africa (providing more of the tropical weather disturbances responsible for tropical cyclone formations in the deep tropics).

Adrian
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Evening all.

@ Aqua....

Hmmm.... water dog plus rain man.... sounds like an atmospheric marriage...
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Really?!?!?!
Northern California again?!?!?!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
WEST CENTRAL PLACER COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
EAST CENTRAL SUTTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
SOUTHWESTERN YUBA COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM PDT

* AT 600 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAMMONTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PALERMO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHWAY 70
FROM NEAR NICOLAUS TO EAST OF OLIVEHURST. THIS STORM IS STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO FOR THE NEXT 45 MINUTES. THE STORMS
COULD APPROACH HAMMONTON...BEALE AIR FORCE BASE AND SHERIDAN IN THE
NEXT 45 MINUTES.
Something fishy is going on around the country latley and I'm not talking and JFV's shower curtain.
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I am now convinced the Caribbean blob is actually a Rorschach test.
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1260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
552

WHXX01 KWBC 020056

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0056 UTC THU JUN 2 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110602 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110602 0000 110602 1200 110603 0000 110603 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.5N 84.5W 27.9N 88.2W 27.6N 91.8W 28.4N 95.4W

BAMD 28.5N 84.5W 27.7N 87.2W 27.2N 90.1W 27.3N 93.0W

BAMM 28.5N 84.5W 27.6N 88.1W 27.2N 91.6W 27.3N 94.8W

LBAR 28.5N 84.5W 27.7N 88.6W 27.1N 92.3W 27.0N 95.7W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110604 0000 110605 0000 110606 0000 110607 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 29.8N 98.3W 33.2N 101.9W 36.2N 103.1W 38.6N 102.2W

BAMD 28.1N 95.7W 29.1N 99.4W 28.9N 101.1W 28.3N 101.3W

BAMM 28.3N 97.6W 30.0N 101.6W 31.0N 104.0W 31.9N 105.1W

LBAR 27.5N 98.6W 27.7N 101.7W 26.2N 103.4W 24.3N 103.3W

SHIP 44KTS 43KTS 41KTS 43KTS

DSHP 36KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 28.5N LONCUR = 84.5W DIRCUR = 252DEG SPDCUR = 26KT

LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 246DEG SPDM12 = 24KT

LATM24 = 32.2N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 60NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Hey, Storm! How ya doin?
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For anyone who keeps up with hurricanecity, Tampa was picked as this year's ticking time bomb. I hope the complacent people wake up this year.
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Really need rain here In sw Louisiana....... even a bit. Would settle for an outer band of some sort......anything.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Lucky for you. I'm about 12 miles inland. Say if Ike came to where I lived (which was his original track), he would have barely weakened at all since he was going full speed ahead at nearly 20 mph.


If Ike had gone 20 miles west of its landfall location, Galveston, and where I live 20 miles inland would be gone.
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Quoting aquak9:
washingtonian- I knew it was a fake Keeper right away- the real Keeper would NEVER wear lavender.
Ya gotta watch out for the way the person also types.Buuut lavender is in KOTG's avatar now.Could that be the fake one!.Find out soon next week!!.Lol.
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1254. Grothar
Hey, two blobs in the Caribbean. It really looks like it is trying to do something.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
1253. aquak9
Thanks again, ya'll.

sweet dreams, g'nite.
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Quoting Grothar:


Congrats to both of you. Mine is in October. I will be accepting condolences the entire month.


Too late for that, Ancient One.....
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
As always, it appears that the CMC model is developing everything...
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I'm a couple miles from the beach...I'll be the first one in line going North on 231 for anything stronger than a 2.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Still can't find that place on the member blogs where their age is! How do you do that? ;)

p.s. Happy anniversary. :)


You should see it on every post, Dan.

"Member Since"....
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Really?!?!?!
Northern California again?!?!?!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
WEST CENTRAL PLACER COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
EAST CENTRAL SUTTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
SOUTHWESTERN YUBA COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM PDT

* AT 600 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAMMONTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PALERMO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHWAY 70
FROM NEAR NICOLAUS TO EAST OF OLIVEHURST. THIS STORM IS STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO FOR THE NEXT 45 MINUTES. THE STORMS
COULD APPROACH HAMMONTON...BEALE AIR FORCE BASE AND SHERIDAN IN THE
NEXT 45 MINUTES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1247. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
thanks, ya'll. We met thru WU, and the rest is weather history.

And it IS really nice to see some old members showing back up.


Congrats to both of you. Mine is in October. I will be accepting condolences the entire month.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Did anyone see this?


STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

from the Oklahoma outbreak last week


Didn't see it. Very interesting.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I have the luxury of rarely having the opportunity of seeing a full-fledged Category 4 or 5 hurricane in my neck of the woods. I'm like 70 miles inland.


Lucky for you. I'm about 12 miles inland. Say if Ike came to where I lived (which was his original track), he would have barely weakened at all since he was going full speed ahead at nearly 20 mph.
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Quoting caneswatch:


I have some 650 miles away and some 1400 miles away. I'd rather go with the ones that are 1400 miles away LOL
When a hurricane usually makes landfall up here it's all gloomy.But I'd rather have that then the real thing.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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