CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

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NEW BLOG
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Quoting MahFL:


XXXXX, wildlife evolved with droughts. Some species will die down a bit, others increase. Then the ones that went lower will recover. It's natural cycle.

Watch your language please
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Cue the satellite shots of Africa to get some interest going.

ok, you asked for it.....




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Is it me or is 93L splitting in half?

Click image for loop
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1738. barbamz
Hello everybody from Germany. Drought in our country has been mitigated a bit due to some thunderstorms and rain two days ago. More to come this weekend.
Others news are not so good.

E. coli outbreak is a new strain2 June 2011 Last updated at 12:24 GMT
James Gallagher
Health reporter, BBC News
Leading microbiologist has warned the E. coli outbreak may worsen

The World Health Organization says the E. coli outbreak in Germany is a completely new strain of the bacteria.

The infection can cause the deadly complication - haemolytic-uraemic syndrome (HUS) - affecting the blood and kidneys.

More than 1,500 people have been infected and 17 have died: 16 in Germany and one in Sweden.

In the UK, three British nationals have been infected - all had visited Germany.
Aphaluck Bhatiasevi, a WHO spokesperson, is reported as saying: "This strain has never been seen in an outbreak situation before."
Scientists at the Beijing Genomics Institute, in China, are also reported as saying: "This E.coli is a new strain of bacteria that is highly infectious and toxic."
Preliminary genetic analysis of the outbreak suggests the bacteria is unique.
More:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-13626499

I've followed the news about the tornado outbreak in MA yesterday and I'm sorry for the fatalities and the damage. Some incredible video footage though.

Have a good day. I hope 93L will bring at least some drops of rain to Texas.
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1737. cg2916
NEW POST!!!!
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1736. Ryuujin
Good grief you Gulf Coaster/Floridians with that drought. I didn't know it was that bad. Man we had something along the lines of 14in of rain in like a weeks time here on the Ohio River. Wish I could of sent some of that your way.
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New Blog
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1734. srada
The Weather Channel are actually doing a parody when Cantore shows up in your hometown..a sense of doom felt by people..here is the story..

Link
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 774
And us coasties (East Of Turnpike) get 10% chance next Sunday, that's it...
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1732. ackee
anyone think THE blob of convection south of haiti will devlop further ?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Soooo starved of thunderstorms here in EC Florida!

More dry days ahead.

Time to start farming the hay... or is it hey?



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAYBE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
.

That has been the story all year...
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1730. Bayside
It seems that last year, here in VA, it was pretty dry too... we'd wish for rain and when it would come, it would come with nasty thunderstorms very high winds. I hope this dry spell now isn't a sign for another season of wicked thunderstorms ahead.
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Quoting LPStormspotter:
What ever happen to JFV & Storm.. Dont see them posting.

Storm is somewhere else now he is no longer here. JFV will eventually show up with another handle
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1728. Bayside
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
I keep up a 1 acre vegetable garden


Wow, that's a big garden! Wish I had the much room... I'd turn my whole yard into a garden if my wife would let me... the grass doesn't do anything except make work... I guess I'd leave a strip for the kids to play...
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Is it me or is 93l looks like it's starting to regenerate?


I think it's biggest difficulty will be time, I doubt it has even 24 hours before it hits Mexico or Texas.
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1723. Gearsts
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1722. srada
Yesterday, our Governor (NC) met with President Obama on the Federal Govt reponse to hurricane disasters and we had Jim Cantore in Wilmington as well shooting a promo shot for the Weather Channel..not too shabby for NC..scary though that Jim was in Wilmington..
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 774
i like it. even though its dry the evenings are mild and not too hot. heck of lot better than some yrs at the beginning of june where it is so steamy you can hardly breath. its not all bad.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4774
#1714 Funny!!!!!!


Looks like many places around the world are suffering droughts also...

seems it is either flooding or drought..

is there anyplace that is getting "normal" amounts of rainfall for spring/early summer?
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And europe too


Europe's dry spring could lead to power blackouts, governments warn

River levels may cause nuclear reactors to go offline, while dry weather in northern and eastern Europe will raise food prices

One of the driest springs ever recorded in northern Europe could lead to power blackouts this summer, with nuclear reactors going offline because of low river levels. The exceptionally dry weather will also raise food prices and has already forced water restrictions on millions of people, say governments, farm groups and meteorological organisations across the continent.

Large parts of southern Britain, northern France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria and other northern and eastern European countries have had their driest three-month spells in more than 50 years, receiving just 25-60% of their long-term average rainfall since February. This has led to parched soils and difficult growing conditions for farmers, as well as to river levels that are dangerously low for wildlife.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/31 /europe-dry-spring-power-blackouts
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Is it me or is 93l looks like it's starting to regenerate?
Its trying, but not looking healthy at all.
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Regarding drought conditions

West Texas sees worst drought since Dust Bowl

Climatologist: “Along with the U.S., France, and China all are experiencing some pretty nasty drought that is going to have a major global impact on commodities, wheat in particular.”

Parts of West Texas, Oklahoma and adjoining states are suffering from a drought that rivals the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Some scientists say this is a kind of “global weirding” heralding climate change.

Were it not for the Biblical flooding of the Mississippi River and, well, Biblical whirlwinds slamming the Midwest, the “hellish” side of Hell and High Water would be the big news. Last month a “record breaking 1.79 million acres burned across the country” and most of that was in Texas, NOAA reported.

The Houston Chronicle reported this week, “Texas’ farmers and ranchers are coping with their eighth drought in the last 13 years, and this one, while still young, has a chance of slamming producers with their biggest losses ever, officials said.

Nearly four fifths of Texas is under extreme or exceptional drought. Reuters reports, the “dire drought” has “expanded across the key farming state of Kansas … the top U.S. wheat-growing state” over the last two weeks, “adding to struggles of wheat farmers already dealing with weather-ravaged fields.”

 
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/05/26/208170/t exas-worst-drought-dust-bowl-wheat/
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Quoting Grothar:


And even that isn't too accurate. The only reason that Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade is not as deep red anymore, is that they had some rain in the interior, but the coastal areas have received practically nothing in months.


that's right, people close to the beach have not seen even sprinkles in the past 6 months..
the bottom map shows the colors by area not necessary county and you see all the fushia/hot pink in many places that does not reflect by county.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning my friends,

Happy Thursday.... well in all the years I've been watching I don't think I have seen this Florida Drought map look this red for so long.

Even in 2007/2008 drought at least north Florida got some rain while Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades dried up.

parts of South Florida been getting afew of those afternoon sprinkles which has helped some; at least we are red now and not dark red.






I always knew Florida was a red state, not literally though, lol. However, even that is changing with time.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I think we'll see 94L before long though heavy convection is removed from COC, looks like things are coming together for development and I suspect this AOI has a good shot at becoming Arlene within the next 96hours, just my opinion of course!
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Is it me or is 93l looks like it's starting to regenerate?
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1711. HCW
Worst drought since 1997 here in South AL where we are 16 to 20 inches below normal

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1710. Grothar
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning my friends,

Happy Thursday.... well in all the years I've been watching I don't think I have seen this Florida Drought map look this red for so long.

Even in 2007/2008 drought at least north Florida got some rain while Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades dried up.

parts of South Florida been getting afew of those afternoon sprinkles which has helped some; at least we are red now and not dark red.





And even that isn't too accurate. The only reason that Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade is not as deep red anymore, is that they had some rain in the interior, but the coastal areas have received practically nothing in months.
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1709. IKE
Quoting ElCubanon:
G'morning, all; Ikster, you around?
Lurking.

................................................. .................................................
6-10 day precipitation....



6-10 day temperatures....




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Quoting LPStormspotter:
I sure was counting on this thing hitting upper Tx coast. We need some rain bad


sure do

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Chances of formation for the big blob are increased to 20%.
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What ever happen to JFV & Storm.. Dont see them posting.
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Good morning my friends,

Happy Thursday.... well in all the years I've been watching I don't think I have seen this Florida Drought map look this red for so long.

Even in 2007/2008 drought at least north Florida got some rain while Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades dried up.
Then another year north Florida was on fire and South Florida was plenty wet.. but not the entire state at the same time.

parts of South Florida been getting afew of those afternoon sprinkles which has helped some; at least we are red now and not dark red.



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Good evening. Looks like we have some activity on the 1st day of hurricane season.

Time for my annual hurricane forecast prediction.

Here was my forecast from last year(you can check my blog if you don't believe me) actual season totals are in parentheses

Named Storms:19(19)
Hurricanes:11(12)
Major Hurricanes:6(5)


2011 Hurricane Season forecast

Named Storms:17
Hurricanes:9
Major Hurricanes:6

Key points of forecast
1. High SST's- above normal
2. Lower than average pressure expected over MDR during peak months
3. Weak La Nina/ Neutral Enso typically translate to active seasons
4.I strongly take into consideration NOAA and CSU predictions and add some independent thought
5.just an amateur take everything with grain of salt
6. I have a feeling most hurricanes this season will be majors
7. ITCZ farther north than climatalogical average
8. I expect at least one U.S. landfall this season: reasons including active tornado season and neutral ENSO increases landfall probablities

Everyone be prepared and stay safe!!!!!!!
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I sure was counting on this thing hitting upper Tx coast. We need some rain bad
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1701. HCW
2 ships around the center of 93L are reporting 7 and 9mph winds
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
1700. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, I miss on all four counts. But that's okay; I've had a lifetime to get used to it. ;-)

I realize it's a 0% blob--o-nothing, but, still, 93L looks somewhat robust this morning, with a good LLC and some healthy convection flaring up on the east side. In the image below, it's centered at roughly 25N/89W. (The RGB loop tells a better story.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg


Hey, 0 blobs can fool you sometimes. That Carib feature is beginning to look better all the time. The shear is still high, but it is really firing up strong convection. Too bad Levi isn't here. We could ask him about the weather conditions and the meaning of life in the same blog.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, I miss on all four counts. But that's okay; I've had a lifetime to get used to it. ;-)

I realize it's a 0% blob--o-nothing, but, still, 93L looks somewhat robust this morning, with a good LLC and some healthy convection flaring up on the east side. In the image below, it's centered at roughly 25N/89W. (The RGB loop tells a better story.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

sis boom bah! Gom Glob !rah, rah, rah!
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1698. Grothar
The Navy site is really showing some high, cold top clouds. Didn't expect it to see it this strong this early.


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Based on the smoke between Gainesville and Palatka, the forest service fire map is missing several.
What with the burn ban, temperatures around 100, and only a 20% chance of rain a few days this week, the fire weather advisory is a DUH! It should be a fire weather watch.
I'm surprised Putnam county isn't under the advisory.
The odd part is that counties with active wild fires are not in the advisory area. hummm.
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Down to 20 kt, difference between inner/outer pressure only 1 mb.


AL 93 2011060212 BEST 0 250N 888W 20 1012 LO 34 NEQ 0 0 0 0 1013
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, that is a bit of a cheeky hello. Perhaps I am wrong, but I noted a bit of sarcasm there. Don't feel badly, Nea. Not all of us can be blessed with good looks, intelligence, wit and humor. Thankfully I was, but in your case, 1 out of 4 isn't bad. I think you are very intelligent. :-)

Nah, I miss on all four counts. But that's okay; I've had a lifetime to get used to it. ;-)

I realize it's a 0% blob--o-nothing, but, still, 93L looks somewhat robust this morning, with a good LLC and some healthy convection flaring up on the east side. In the image below, it's centered at roughly 25N/89W. (The RGB loop tells a better story.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg
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1694. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:

What's up, pot? And the rest? Resident curmudgeon? Fans of Matt Groenig? Various model-sitters, armchair mets, obsequious types, Henny Youngman pretenders, and all the rest?

I suspect 94L will be birthed no later than tomorrow morning if things continue to ever-so-slowly wrap up down south. It's good to get back into the swing of things.

Mostly. ;-)


Well, that is a bit of a cheeky hello. Perhaps I am wrong, but I noted a bit of sarcasm there. Don't feel badly, Nea. Not all of us can be blessed with good looks, intelligence, wit and humor. Thankfully I was, but in your case, 1 out of 4 isn't bad. I think you are very intelligent. :-)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.