Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."


I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.


Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)
Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.
Tornado Power
25 May, (rdjgonzo)
May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.
25 May,
What A Storm (llpj04)
What A Storm

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 286 - 236

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

286. IKE

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow. The horror stories keep coming. :(
Tornado ripping bodies into pieces. Terrible.


Quoting emcf30:

I don't know if you saw it or not but on CBS news last night they were interviewing the mother when the police department and another person walked up. They went into the house and shortly came back out. That was the moment she found out her son was identified. She gave a interview. It was truly sad
Doctor would have to sedate me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Current area temperatures here in Fairbanks, AK. We are breaking records today. We haven't had a heatwave like this since 1947 here.



I bet that is strange for y'all. It was only 92 here, with relatively low humidity (for us anyway) and we were HOT!!!! I can just imagine there. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9896
Central America zone is flaring up....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9896
282. Skyepony (Mod)
Songda ~115kts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
From CNN....about the missing from the Joplin tornado....

As officials worked to ensure the death and missing counts were
up-to-date, some residents got answers on the fate of loved ones.

Michelle Hare said she learned that her 16-year-old son had been confirmed dead. Lantz was ripped from a car Sunday night by winds exceeding 200 mph,and was one of the people named Thursday.


I don't know if you saw it or not but on CBS news last night they were interviewing the mother when the police department and another person walked up. They went into the house and shortly came back out. That was the moment she found out her son was identified. She gave a interview. It was truly sad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
From CNN....about the missing from the Joplin tornado....

As officials worked to ensure the death and missing counts were
up-to-date, some residents got answers on the fate of loved ones.

Michelle Hare said she learned that her 16-year-old son had been confirmed dead. Lantz was ripped from a car Sunday night by winds exceeding 200 mph,and was one of the people named Thursday.

The Hares had been among many around Joplin still desperately searching for family members. One of the frustrations was a holdup at the morgue. Some were told that they may have to wait for two weeks before they can visit to search for relatives.

Coroner Bridges said some people will be allowed into the morgue to identify family members if they know unique characteristics such as tattoos.

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon said the magnitude of the storm has made the process of identifying victims difficult and will mean that some of the bodies will have to be identified by DNA.

"This is not a series of bodies lying in a row that are easily identifiable. There are pieces of folks," Nixon told CNN's Anderson Cooper. "There are very, very difficult scenes. It's not as easy as walking down a row and being able to instantly identify."


Wow. The horror stories keep coming. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current area temperatures here in Fairbanks, AK. We are breaking records today. We haven't had a heatwave like this since 1947 here.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SE TRADES COVER THE AREA
FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AS A TROUGH S OF 14N ALONG 71W MOVES A BIT MORE TO THE NW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES
MIGRATE INTO NORTHERN S AMERICA...WITH THEIR NORTHERN PORTION
EXTENDING INTO THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS. BY SAT...AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRES WILL START TO FORM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED BY
SW MONSOONAL TROUGH FLOW FROM THE E PACIFIC.

THIS WILL BECOME THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BY SUN. GLOBAL MODELS
INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW THIS LOW
DEEPENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE FAIRLY MEASURED
WHILE THE NOGAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THE LOW MIGRATE N TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST BY TUE...AND
WHILE THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN APPRECIABLY...THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS FROM THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN BY TUE...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH TUE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
277. IKE
From CNN....about the missing from the Joplin tornado....

As officials worked to ensure the death and missing counts were up-to-date, some residents got answers on the fate of loved ones.

Michelle Hare said she learned that her 16-year-old son had been confirmed dead. Lantz was ripped from a car Sunday night by winds exceeding 200 mph,and was one of the people named Thursday.

The Hares had been among many around Joplin still desperately searching for family members. One of the frustrations was a holdup at the morgue. Some were told that they may have to wait for two weeks before they can visit to search for relatives.

Coroner Bridges said some people will be allowed into the morgue to identify family members if they know unique characteristics such as tattoos.

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon said the magnitude of the storm has made the process of identifying victims difficult and will mean that some of the bodies will have to be identified by DNA.

"This is not a series of bodies lying in a row that are easily identifiable. There are pieces of folks," Nixon told CNN's Anderson Cooper. "There are very, very difficult scenes. It's not as easy as walking down a row and being able to instantly identify."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado: Highest Recorded Wind Speed in Tornado (via Doppler Radar)
Record Value 135 m/s (302 mph)
Date of Event 3/5/1999
Length of Record ~1996-present
Geospatial Location Bridge Creek Oklahoma [35°14'N, 97°44'W, elevation 416 m (1365 ft
Just fount it. Thats nut.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
275. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




even no there no EF6 rateing but i think that nado sould be at lest EF6

Really amazing stuff. I wounder what the highest ever estimated wind speed was in a tornado? This has got to be near the top.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasGulf:
I remember growing up in Kansas, just SW of KCK. When the tornado sirens sounded, my brothers and I would get out the ladder and climb up on the roof to watch for tornadoes. Never did see one except possibly way off in the distance once. Tornado sirens most often mean "go outside and look at the sky. If it doesn't seem too bad, go back to what you were doing".

In my opinion, the warning sirens are useful... but they really ought to do what the refineries and chemical plants do with their sirens. Every plant has a fire / chemical release signal, but they also have an evacuation (or "this is REALLY serious") signal. If the cities would do a wavering signal or pulsing signal for "Tornado on the Ground"... and use the longer constant signal for "Take Warning, possible funnel spotted in your county", then it would mean more to people. When you hear the wavering... it means get to the basement ASAP (and don't go outdoors to look first).

Midwest complacency is partially because they only have one signal for everything. When you hear that siren at least several times a month in Spring and Summer... you start to ignore it like so much background noise. A different sound, like wavering signal or possibly short blasts of signal, that you only hear once/year would get people's attention immediately.


I work for a petrochem company. I do agree this is the best idea, but I know we've had instances were people refuse to leave when our "sh*t has hit the fan" siren goes off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:
National Weather Service offers insight into EF5 rating for Joplin tornado
The winds at some points were 225 - 250mph,
11:16 a.m. CDT, May 27, 2011

JOPLIN, Mo. -- The National Weather Service provided additional insight into the decision to rate the tornado last Sunday at the top of the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The tornado was given an initial rating of an EF-4 before it was upgraded the next day.

Bill Davis with the National Weather Service said investigators look at structural damage and how far heavy objects were thrown. This tornado, for example, tossed concrete parking lot "bumpers" that sit low to the ground and can weigh up to 300 pounds.

The NWS investigators also noted that tractor-trailers parked near the Wal-Mart store were thrown farther than 1/8th mile. Manhole covers were also lifted and tossed.

The tornado's path is an estimated six miles long. It's from three-quarters of a mile to a mile wide at some points. The winds are estimated to have briefly hit between 225 and 250mph.
WOW




even no there no EF6 rateing but i think that nado sould be at lest EF6
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115908
National Weather Service offers insight into EF5 rating for Joplin tornado
The winds at some points were 225 - 250mph,
11:16 a.m. CDT, May 27, 2011

JOPLIN, Mo. -- The National Weather Service provided additional insight into the decision to rate the tornado last Sunday at the top of the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The tornado was given an initial rating of an EF-4 before it was upgraded the next day.

Bill Davis with the National Weather Service said investigators look at structural damage and how far heavy objects were thrown. This tornado, for example, tossed concrete parking lot "bumpers" that sit low to the ground and can weigh up to 300 pounds.

The NWS investigators also noted that tractor-trailers parked near the Wal-Mart store were thrown farther than 1/8th mile. Manhole covers were also lifted and tossed.

The tornado's path is an estimated six miles long. It's from three-quarters of a mile to a mile wide at some points. The winds are estimated to have briefly hit between 225 and 250mph.
WOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could possibly use fourier transforms on signal-strength, frequency-shifting, and phase-changes in cellphone-frequency tower-to-tower transfer signals as a substitute for tornado-detecting radar.
Back in the days*BC, people suspecting that a tornado might turn up soon would tune their analog televisions onto an unused channel (ie nearby stations wouldn't be broadcasting on that frequency) to watch the "snow", displays of static (random pixel firings) running across the cathode display screen. And when weird patterns started to flash across that snow and the speakers started to howl, they knew that a tornado was nearby...really nearby.
(Can't get snow or howling on digital televisions, they're programmed to just filter the static out.)
Cellphones use frequencies similar enough to television frequencies to also be disrupted by tornadoes. And what with all the real-time signal-processing capabilities of modern computers, technologists ought to be able to disentangle that disruption into useable tornado images.

Can definitely use the cellphone system to warn every cellphone owner near enough to the path of a tornado to be at HIGH risk of facing danger.
Yep, they always know where your cellphone is. How do you think you get incoming calls from the nearest/clearest tower? Or get transferred from tower to tower as you travel through coverage areas.

And ifn ya wanna get paranoid about it, ya can't really shut off the cellphone locator (short of going someplace with non-existent coverage, or placing the cellphone in a Faraday cage). When you shut a cellphone off, all you are doing is preventing the cellphone from informing you that someone wants to make contact.
I'm not even sure whether you can prevent sufficiently interested parties from remotely turning on your cellphone... to give you warning... or to eavesdrop without your knowlege if that's their desire.
(From one of the brouhahas in Congress that appeared then disappeared...without any privacy-protection bills being passed or even any publicly-reported conclusions that I'm aware of)

* BC -- Before(inexpensive/personal)Computers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DDR:
1 inch of rain this evening in Trinidad with the passing of the t-wave,the air is cool & refreshing,nice!

I think we will get some more out of it too.
I got 1/2", but I'm not complainin'.
Had a good siesta this afternoon as it drizzled!

What is the Radar showing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HarryMc:


Absolutely. And, in addition to investing in better technology, the primary issue is how to get people to pay attention. I think that's part of your concerns also. Too often, warnings go out then nothing happens and people get complacent.

Last week I was working the Alabama tornadoes. Most of the people I talked with said they had tons (a couple of days in fact) of warning but it was like all the other times and they just said "so what" until their house was disintegrating around them.

Accuracy, credibility, and psychology all play into it.


I just don't know there's a real good way to get the general public to listen. People are generally very ignorant as to weather events. Be it 'nadoes or canes or whatever.

I think human nature just makes people protective of their property, thus they do not want to leave.

I'm an engineer and am behind the NWS getting more and better data. I'm not sure how many more people would pay attention.

Someone already said it: we have lots of folks that don't leave for hurricanes, in which they have a whole day or more to decree "get out!".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nah, at most a cat. 2(2% chance), and that is if there is no complications with the formation of it... id say if conditions are right a 75 MPH Cat. 1 Arlene, but probably around 65 MPH. NOGAPS is currently putting the low as Arlene with 50 mph.


No I was saying that perhaps this means the HWRF and GFDL models will forecast a hypercane as usual. I don't mean this will be remotely close to a cat5.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
266. DDR
1 inch of rain this evening in Trinidad with the passing of the t-wave,the air is cool & refreshing,nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Red alert for resident of Cotui (R. D.).
All the recindent who live around of the BARRICKGOLD mine are in high danger by a dam is on the limit. the company makes a evacuacion over 5.000 people...... all area is militarized
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bitmap7:


Nogaps really loves this thing. It causes me to be even more enthusiastic about the GFDL and HWRF when they are ready. Perhaps a hyper-cane.
Nah, at most a cat. 2(2% chance), and that is if there is no complications with the formation of it... id say if conditions are right a 75 MPH Cat. 1 Arlene, but probably around 65 MPH. NOGAPS is currently putting the low as Arlene with 50 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
True...it's one model with one run. I hope you get some rain off of it...that you need.

you never talk that way to me... :(


Perhaps you would enjoy NOGAPS's solution. A hurricane sitting right on top of you giving you alll the moisture your heart desires XD
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
True...it's one model with one run. I hope you get some rain off of it...that you need.

you never talk that way to me... :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!!
looks like the low could split and pull an Ida(2009)(When Ida's low was doubled up, one went into the EPAC(RICK), One stayed(IDA), this could very well happen. I think it may follow an Arlene(2005) track, According to the track pattern during when the storm is going to be alive, an strong high will be in place off to the Northwest which will give it a NNW push off toward Florida, but this is just a model run, things change over time, always...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15982
Levi,what do you think about what I posted at post #20?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15593
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!!


Nogaps really loves this thing. It causes me to be even more enthusiastic about the GFDL and HWRF when they are ready. Perhaps a hyper-cane.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
Quoting IKE:

True...it's one model with one run. I hope you get some rain off of it...that you need.


Do we ever.Soon come as we say down here.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15982
Quoting wunderkidcayman:



you know I think that will be PRE/93L in the next 12-24 hours maybe 93L there after
not 12 to 24 hours, id say more like in the next 2 days, needs more time for the NHC to notice it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bitmap7:
As usual I look forward to the 00z and 12z.


Amen! Those are the best runs to look at as they have more data.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15593
251. IKE

Quoting kmanislander:


Looks that way. The ECMWF had the low hanging around and then heading off to the West just above Nicaragua.

Lots of other runs to watch before the 31st LOL
True...it's one model with one run. I hope you get some rain off of it...that you need.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

Looks like a low develops north of the islands and then races toward the northern ATL. Like the energy from the Caribbean gets shoved NNE to NNE and then spins up stronger and heads toward the NATL graveyard.


Looks that way. The ECMWF had the low hanging around and then heading off to the West just above Nicaragua.

Lots of other runs to watch before the 31st LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15982
As usual I look forward to the 00z and 12z.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
248. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, but the frame I posted was at 144 hours showing the system pretty much sheared out to the NE. We know that each run will vary so only time will tell what, if anything, develops down there and what it will do in terms of strength and longevity.
Looks like a low develops north of the islands and then races toward the northern ATL. Like the energy from the Caribbean gets shoved NNE to NNE and then spins up stronger and heads toward the NATL graveyard.

A lot of the moisture may go east of you.

Off to get something to eat for supper.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
247. IKE
GFS strengthens it as it heads toward the NATL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Hey KMAN.....here's 132 hours....GFS.....






Yes, but the frame I posted was at 144 hours showing the system pretty much sheared out to the NE. We know that each run will vary so only time will tell what, if anything, develops down there and what it will do in terms of strength and longevity.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15982
Building codes in the Midwest do NOT require basements. Most of the older homes have root cellars or basement storerooms. Almost all better built homes DO have basements. However, it's not uncommon to have slab-built homes or modular homes in Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma or Nebraska.

I believe the building codes need to be changed to require any new-construction house without a basement or storm cellar to have at least ONE room or walk-in closet which is built from a minimum of 8" thick reinforced concrete walls on at least 3-sides with rebar ties to the concrete slab floor. A ceiling of minimum 2x12's @ 12" centers secured to plate anchors set into the concrete wall and double 3/4" plywood (one over, one under) wood screwed @ 12" centers to the 2x12's. I don't care if this is a closet under some stairs, a master bedroom closet or even a small pantry. Every home should be required to have that minimum protection.

Building codes in the midwest do NOT require a basement, storm shelter or a storm resistant interior room. It doesn't have to be a costly feature of a home, but I believe it should be mandatory. That way, a family with a small amount of warning time could have some reasonable shelter. It's embarrassing that people have to resort to diving into a bathtub as their only form of possible shelter in an slab-on-grade house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. IKE
Here's hour 180....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
243. IKE
Hey KMAN.....here's 132 hours....GFS.....




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
My computer seems to be acting up. Here is the 2nd of June.

Definitely a weaker run



To be honest the GFS has been the weakest model all along with this one.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting Bitmap7:
You guys notice the remnants of 92 l with all that vort?

I think that when said low intensifies and moves under the Cayman area and the leftover convection from 92l drifts over on top of Hispaniola. That the resulting suction of air from the ridge in the atlantic into 93l will manage to ventelate that blob of convection (X 92L which will be in the Bahama Hispaniola area ). The anticyclone will probably have grown and reduced shear in the area as well.
Causing it redevelop into a new system hence the representation of a split on the GFS.



Quoting Levi32:
The split of the low in the Caribbean is due to the influence of both the trough-split over the Gulf of Mexico and the rest of the trough over the western Atlantic. It is likely that some energy will get pulled up that way, which the models are trying to turn into a separate low. The whole thing could go that direction as well. It will be interesting to see if a piece is left behind in the Caribbean, or if the whole thing gets trapped under the ridge.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I have a question, just curious, do you ever use periods and commas and such?

What makes you think we'll see 93L within the next day or so?


That first sentence should have contained a semicolon or should have been two sentences.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Yes I do, but I am multi tasking and doing this with one hand. I just have a gut feeling that it will be tagged around that time.
I sent you a WUmail earlier today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My computer seems to be acting up. Here is the 2nd of June.

Definitely a weaker run

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15982

Viewing: 286 - 236

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto