Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."

I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)

Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.

25 May, (rdjgonzo)

May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.

What A Storm (llpj04)

Categories: Tornado

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151. sunlinepr 8:20 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting Levi32: The split of the low in the Caribbean is due to the influence of both the trough-split over the Gulf of Mexico and the rest of the trough over the western Atlantic. It is likely that some energy will get pulled up that way, which the models are trying to turn into a separate low. The whole thing could go that direction as well. It will be interesting to see if a piece is left behind in the Caribbean, or if the whole thing gets trapped under the ridge. Excellent analysis, thanks... for your tropical Tidbits Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

152. fatlady99 8:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: ...that guy is a tool, I hate when representatives act as if they know the seriousness of situations, when phds are telling them to worry, and they scoff saying something like "I've seen a tornado before." Boggles me how they get themselves dressed in the morning. That's what they have interns for... No sir.. one leg at a time... that's right... Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

154. help4u 8:32 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Technology also allows us to drill for our own oil and gas and not depend on terroists for this,has not stopped our little government from stopping this.Or is it we cannot do anything without them leading us along like sheep to the slaughter! Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1069

155. jerseycityjoan 8:37 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
I wish the press release had been more specific but perhaps as government employees, they felt they should not ask for specific items. I would appreciate knowing what the Federal government should buy and who it should hire to increase and improve the monitoring of tornadoes. Are there any bills in Congress? If not, there should be. It's criminal that people died because we haven't bought additional equipment and hired additional personnel. What we spend on weather is nothing compared to the size of the federal budget. No matter how conservative or anti-government a person can reasonably be, surely it's obvious to all that it's morally imperative and econically sound to invest in all the preventative and predictive activities we can. These storms cost billions in property damage, insurance payments, health care costs and government benefits for survivors. Plus I would think the new equipment would make forecasting better overall, not just for tornadoes. Member Since: September 29, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 119

156. cyclonekid 8:38 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Hmmm.. NHC Surface Analysis Forecast shows a trough of Low Pressure for Day 2 in the SW Caribbean. An area of low pressure in the EPAC as well. Day 3: They show a continued trough of low pressure that's stationary and a closed low pressure system in the EPAC that's also stationary. Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

157. aspectre 8:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
65 SkyePony "Alaska's Heat Wave." Odd, that. The provided coordinates centers it in Fairbanks (near KodiakJack's as a matter of fact) yet that site ignores the fairly well-known city in favor of naming an obscure region known as the Betral. And it doesn't give a temperature. Though admittedly toasty for this time of year, 80degreeFahrenheit(27degreeCelsius)days ain't hardly likely to send folks into heat exhaustion. Levi32 gave a first-hand account in the last blog (or maybe the one previous). Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

158. PrivateIdaho 8:40 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting fatlady99: That's what they have interns for... No sir.. one leg at a time... that's right... lol! How ya been Lady? Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

159. Jedkins01 8:41 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
As we head into June, long term computer models still show an upper level ridge dominating and PW's only around 1.5 inches to keep thunderstorm coverage low. Man I sure hope this isn't a sign of yet again another relatively lame wet season in Florida. I swear, the weather here is just more tame then it used to be in a long term sense. Maybe I'm just frustrated with mostly sunny skies day after day, so it may be causing me to sound rather negative. But even still... Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

160. wunderkidcayman 8:45 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
NEW MAP NEW MAP 18Z DEVELOPING LOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5406

161. fatlady99 8:46 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: lol! How ya been Lady? Good sir, and you? I'm working on my hurricane evac supplies for this year, and lugging the puppies to the vet so they can get their health certificates just in case. Lots of dogs, lots of paperwork. Fortunately, they started allowing pets with certs in carriers in our local shelters, otherwise we'd all be taking cover in the schoolbus! How about you, are you ready for anything this year? Looks like it's gonna be a bumpy ride!!! LOL! Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

162. FrankZapper 8:47 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: It's difficult to get It's difficult to imagine increased funding for the NWS at this moment when many members of the House are so virulently dismissive of science, steadfastly opposed to funding anything other than the military and various tax breaks for the wealthy, and openly mocking of anything that they deem "Big Government". Just as a for-instance, there's the following tweet from last year's annual tornado drill: The person who tweeted that, you should know, is auctioneer, poker player, college dropout, and U.S. Representative Billy Long of Missouri's 7th congressional district--which includes, yes, Joplin. (I suppose it's true: we get the representation we deserve. But still...) The fact is, the technology exists to improve warning times for severe weather of all types. But until and unless those controlling the purse strings can be made to see the light and held accountable for their lack of action, people will continue to die needless deaths. :-\ Yes it's sad where this country is going. We build and rebuild other countries, we are the world's policeman for free, yet our infrastructure is rotten, services are cut to the bone and many hard working Americans are one illness or layoff from bankruptcy from lack of affordable insurance. Here in NOLA a rather successful chef was shot in a robbery attempt and now his fellow coworkers are trying to raise money for his medical bills because he has no insurance yet the thugs get free care when they shoot up each other in daily drivebys, Sad! Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

163. gulfbreeze 8:48 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
HURRICANE SEASON is here water temp 12 miles south of Orange Beach Al. Buoy 82.8 F Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 594

164. TampaTom 8:48 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting twincomanche: In all seriousness, if you had two hours notice or six hours notice what would anyone do different when the band of these disasters are so narrow and so hard to predict exactly where they are going to go? Heck, the NHC gives people 24 - 36 hours, and you see a lot of folks ignoring the warning... Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1048

165. seflagamma 8:50 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting cg2916: pant pant pant I came here as soon as I heard the ECMWF spun up something in the Caribbean... again. LOL +1 Good one!!! many of the "old timers" should be returning soon!! Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40484

167. MiamiHurricanes09 8:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Blog Update Models Showing Consistency On Tropical Development Next Week Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

168. IKE 8:53 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Actor Jeff Conaway, who was in the TV series "Taxi" and the movie "Grease," died from pneumonia, his manager said. ................................................. .................................................. ..... 20% chance of rain here tomorrow....woohoo! Saturday Areas of fog in the morning. Mostly sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 91. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

169. seflagamma 8:53 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
#145 Hi ya Doc, well said, I couldn't agree more! Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40484

170. PrivateIdaho 8:53 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Trees caught on a diversion dam in the Snake River near Blackfoot Idaho. It is usually a 6 foot drop over this dam. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

171. kwgirl 8:53 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Well it is quitting time. Everyone have a great weekend. I will be tuning in on Tuesday. Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

172. ElConando 8:54 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Rained in my area of Miami for the first time in over a month. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

173. PrivateIdaho 8:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Flood waters flowing down a road and into a park. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

174. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:57 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

175. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:57 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Blog Update! Short Update: an early start to the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season likely Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25277

176. IKE 8:59 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

177. seflagamma 9:00 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: Actor Jeff Conaway, who was in the TV series "Taxi" and the movie "Grease," died from pneumonia, his manager said. ................................................. .. Ike, I saw he was in critical condition on TV a day or two ago, earlier this week.. that is so sad; he was not that old Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40484

178. IKE 9:01 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting seflagamma: 60 years-old. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

179. HarryMc 9:01 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: It's difficult to get It's difficult to imagine increased funding for the NWS at this moment when many members of the House are so virulently dismissive of science, steadfastly opposed to funding anything other than the military and various tax breaks for the wealthy, and openly mocking of anything that they deem "Big Government". Just as a for-instance, there's the following tweet from last year's annual tornado drill: The person who tweeted that, you should know, is auctioneer, poker player, college dropout, and U.S. Representative Billy Long of Missouri's 7th congressional district--which includes, yes, Joplin. (I suppose it's true: we get the representation we deserve. But still...) The fact is, the technology exists to improve warning times for severe weather of all types. But until and unless those controlling the purse strings can be made to see the light and held accountable for their lack of action, people will continue to die needless deaths. :-\ Quoting Neapolitan: It's difficult to get It's difficult to imagine increased funding for the NWS at this moment when many members of the House are so virulently dismissive of science, steadfastly opposed to funding anything other than the military and various tax breaks for the wealthy, and openly mocking of anything that they deem "Big Government". Just as a for-instance, there's the following tweet from last year's annual tornado drill: The person who tweeted that, you should know, is auctioneer, poker player, college dropout, and U.S. Representative Billy Long of Missouri's 7th congressional district--which includes, yes, Joplin. (I suppose it's true: we get the representation we deserve. But still...) The fact is, the technology exists to improve warning times for severe weather of all types. But until and unless those controlling the purse strings can be made to see the light and held accountable for their lack of action, people will continue to die needless deaths. :-\ As a journalist I sort of follow things like this. I am not from there, never met this guy, and have no dog in the fight as they say. That quote was from Twitter March 11, 2010, long before he even was elected. Taken in context, it has little relevance to anything to do with anything except in general terms during that time frame he was 'stressing' about getting the campaign going. Maybe this one was taken from one of those liberal attack sites? Of course to be fair, there are conservative attack sites too. Maybe look at some of this guy's recent work which has been rather impressive and more rational than one would expect for a "college dropout" "poker player" etc. It's rather easy to look up the facts on Twitter. Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 325

180. seflagamma 9:02 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
I cannot type anymore! LOL Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40484

181. seflagamma 9:03 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: 60 years-old. At first when I read that I was thinking "wow, I did not realized he was that old.. I mean he is only a few years older than me.. .then I realized in Aug I will be 58! " LOL Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40484

182. IKE 9:03 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Miami discussion.... FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN US WILL MOVE TO THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL HELP BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AS WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. Key West..... BREEZY EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP THROUGH THE FAR EXTENDED RANGE...DUE TO FALLING PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY OFTEN DIES DOWN FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF BUILDING WINDS DUE TO LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT AND LESS CONVERGENT NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE ALREADY ADVERTISED SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY AND BEYOND. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

183. IKE 9:05 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting seflagamma: At first when I read that I was thinking "wow, I did not realized he was that old.. I mean he is only a few years older than me.. .then I realized in Aug I will be 58! " LOL I'm not far behind you:( Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

184. HurricaneSwirl 9:06 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting IKE: If this were to come true, would steering currents take it into Nicaragua or north towards Jamaica and Cuba? Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

185. IKE 9:08 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: If this were to come true, would steering currents take it into Nicaragua or north towards Jamaica and Cuba? Models I've seen take it NNE to NE slowly....eventually. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

186. PrivateIdaho 9:08 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Even this muskrat seems perplexed by all the water. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

187. Tropicsweatherpr 9:08 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
San Juan discussion... .DISCUSSION...LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW PRES IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MOISTURE FCST TO SURGE WED NIGHT THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTH ACROSS JAMAICA INTO HISPANIOLA. AS THIS OCCURS...ATLC RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWARD TO 20N AND WWD INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH DEEP MOISTURE RETREATING NWD NORTH OF THE AREA BY NEXT FRI. WHILE PW ARE FCST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WED NIGHT...THIS IS A BRIEF SURGE WITH STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN FROM JAMAICA INTO HISPANIOLA. ATTM...DO NOT SEE THIS AS A SIG RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA BUT DO EXPECT DAILY CONVECTION LIKE TODAY WITH A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151

188. emcf30 9:10 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Getting some decent storms in East Orange co. Unfortunately there is lost of lighting. Now there are several wild fires burning out of control. The Beeline (SR528) is being closed off and one and fire treating a facility housing three prisons and a mobile home park just East of Orlando International Airport. Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

189. Skyepony (Mod) 9:10 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
I see the arguments we couldn't improve this much more.. GOES-R & future satellites could improve it & there is already better radar, smaller scale technology developed for war. In 1950 there was no lead time & not much hope for one. & the argument people don't care.. it's not just about a better lead time by a few minutes but more accurate...less crying evacuate when it's not needed. People would be more apt the heed a high risk warning. Could save a lot of money too. It's hard to not campaign for this stuff considering the age of the hardware, software & satellites of what there is left. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29283

190. PrivateIdaho 9:10 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
A few more feet of water and these geese will be swimming in the livingroom! Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

191. PrivateIdaho 9:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Water starting to run under the temporary barriers placed on a low spot on the levee. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

192. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
At this point, Songda looks like a low to moderate Category 3 storm. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25277

193. fatlady99 9:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: It's already been a bumpy ride up your way, hasn't it? As well as for lots of other folk. Hope all is well with you and yours. Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

194. xcool 9:15 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

195. PrivateIdaho 9:17 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting fatlady99: It's already been a bumpy ride up your way, hasn't it? As well as for lots of other folk. Hope all is well with you and yours. Been a wet, cold, stormy spring. If we get a big warm-up the river will really become a problem since snow melt is the major source of water. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

196. DocNDswamp 9:18 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting seflagamma: At first when I read that I was thinking "wow, I did not realized he was that old.. I mean he is only a few years older than me.. .then I realized in Aug I will be 58! " LOL LOL, and a big hiya, Leo / Snake / Sister Gams! As usual, I'll test the water fer ya a week ahead of your scheduled, uh... ripening! ;) Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 92 Comments: 4640

197. PrivateIdaho 9:19 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Lots of water in the high country and no place to put it when it melts. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

198. Skyepony (Mod) 9:20 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting aspectre: 65 SkyePony "Alaska's Heat Wave." Odd, that. The provided coordinates centers it in Fairbanks (near KodiakJack's as a matter of fact) yet that site ignores the fairly well-known city in favor of naming a pretty obscure region known as the Bertral. And it doesn't give a temperature. Though admittedly toasty for this time of year, 80degreeFahrenheit(27degreeCelsius)days ain't hardly likely to send folks into heat exhaustion. Levi32 gave a first-hand account in the last blog (or maybe the one previous). Saw that, thought he might like to know his heat wave made the wire. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29283

200. HarryMc 9:22 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
Quoting Skyepony: I see the arguments we couldn't improve this much more.. GOES-R & future satellites could improve it & there is already better radar, smaller scale technology developed for war. In 1950 there was no lead time & not much hope for one. & the argument people don't care.. it's not just about a better lead time by a few minutes but more accurate...less crying evacuate when it's not needed. People would be more apt the heed a high risk warning. Could save a lot of money too. It's hard to not campaign for this stuff considering the age of the hardware, software & satellites of what there is left. Absolutely. And, in addition to investing in better technology, the primary issue is how to get people to pay attention. I think that's part of your concerns also. Too often, warnings go out then nothing happens and people get complacent. Last week I was working the Alabama tornadoes. Most of the people I talked with said they had tons (a couple of days in fact) of warning but it was like all the other times and they just said "so what" until their house was disintegrating around them. Accuracy, credibility, and psychology all play into it. Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 325

201. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:23 PM GMT on May 27, 2011
I wish that the TCHP wouldn't get so high approaching the peak of the hurricane, and I wish it wouldn't this year. Sadly...It will. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25277

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