Disturbed weather from Bermuda to Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on October 12, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

An unusually large and long-lasting area of low pressure with heavy rains continues to affect a large section of ocean from New England to Bermuda south to Puerto Rico, and then westward across Hispanolia and Jamaica to Honduras. Over 10 inches of rain has fallen over much of Puerto Rico the past two days. The entire island is under a flash flood warning today, and many rivers are out of their banks and many streets and neighborhoods flooded.

Wind shear levels over this disturbed area are in the 10 - 20 knot range, which is too high to allow much in the way of tropical storm development to occur. The various global computer models continue to insist that a tropical storm will develop this week between Puerto Rico and Bermuda and move north to threaten Bermuda, but thus far the models have performed very poorly with their predictions of tropical cyclone development with this weather pattern. If development does occur, it would likely be focused on one of two low level circulations that have developed, one just north of Jamaica near 19N75W and another midway between Puerto Rico and Bermuda near 25N67W.

Stan's toll
I will continue to talk about Stan's destruction for a while yet. This is a disaster that has killed many more people and caused more suffering than Hurricane Katrina, yet will not get nearly the attention it deserves because of the earthquake in Pakistan.

Today the death toll in Guatemala stands at 1252. Another 133 people died in El Salvador, Mexico, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. Many more lie buried in areas rescuers still cannot reach, although by today 95% of the affected communities had been. Particularly hard hit were the coastal mountains of Guatemala near the Mexican border. Some of our wunderground members have sent in some remarkable photos of the floods in Guatemala, a few of which I link to below.

The next update will be Thursday morning, unless some unexpected development happens. I will talk about some new estimates of what Katrina's winds really were at landfall, and the results are surprising.

Jeff Masters

Stan Effects (neavilag)
Stan Effects
Flooded house (fractal12)
Huracane Stan
Flooded house
Destroyed house by the river (fractal12)
Huracan stan
Destroyed house by the river

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 290 - 240

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

290. MandyFSU
2:27 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
Thanks 21! did NOT know that :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
289. Pensacola21
2:24 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
Hey all... Did you guys know that Dr. Masters has a new post?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
288. MandyFSU
1:43 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
I'm with orion. I want to curl back up in bed. It's supposed to be nice next week. I think the high Monday is only 84 and the low is in the upper 50's. I'm VERY excited.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
287. oriondarkwood
1:39 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
With the weather around here I be back in bed, or aleast nesting in front of the computer/TV
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
286. gbreezegirl
1:33 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
It's absolutely gorgeous here today. Cooler, blue skies. If only I were'nt at work! I bet the beach is wonderful today.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
285. primez
1:33 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
A tropical storm hasn't even developed in the Carribean since Emily, let alone hurricanes. This is very strange.

If the warm water temps stay there during winter, some bad storms could develop. If storms, don't develop, the temps will stay warm into next hurricane season!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
284. MandyFSU
1:20 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
Hi gbreeze. How're things your way? It's cloudy here AGAIN.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
283. gbreezegirl
1:14 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
Mornin' all!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
282. MandyFSU
1:12 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
Mornin' all. :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
281. oriondarkwood
1:02 PM GMT on October 13, 2005
Due to the lack of tropical weather. Let's talk about other weather around in my hood here is the weather.

Temp 56F
Conditions: Mist/Light Dizzle
Wind 6mph out of the east/south east
UV 0 out of 16
Pressue 1009mb

Suppose to be in the low 60's today, some steadier rain later today. Next week we might even get down around freezing for the lows
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
280. snowboy
9:59 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Folks at NHC suggesting no tropical storms to develop, despite the heavy rains across much of the Caribbean.


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA....AND
PUERTO RICO... AND THEN CONTINUING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO
BERMUDA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME
...AND DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
279. StormJunkie
7:23 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Anyone there?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
278. weatherwannabe
5:10 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
lefty?
277. nolegirl14
4:41 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
A few of us discussed it yesterday. While I do nto wish another storm on anyone, I would like to see us get through to the last name on the list.
276. 8888888889gg
4:34 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
ok all tell me do you all think that we will see one more TS be for we are done i would like to see if we get to W i think it be a little funny to end this year with the W storm
275. nolegirl14
4:28 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Gosh, I miss all the action during the day!

Anyways, like Mandy said earlier, here in Tallahassee we have had Fog in the AM until around 10 or 11-then the sun finally breaks through and it warms up FAST. I'll take it right now though-better than leaving the house while it's 80s degrees out!

Skyepny~Thanks for the info on that bill. I haven't read all of it, but this is my first knowledge at all! Aren't there more important things the Florida legislature should be spending time on?
274. dcw
3:58 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Chatting is better in real time.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
273. AM91091
3:22 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
In Toms River, NJ on the Jersey Shore we've gotten 4.02" of
rain so far TODAY!
272. palmettobug53
3:01 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Was off somewhere else for a bit. Guess I'll catch this up tomorrow. Time to hit the hay.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
271. orlandocanewatcher
2:54 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
well...I guess I am talking to myself...so I will just go to bed! Night all :)
270. orlandocanewatcher
2:53 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
weather here has been kinda cruddy all week...no soccer practice for my little power puffs again this week...just a nasty misty rain here today with the occassional down pour...really strange weather.
269. orlandocanewatcher
2:51 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
hi all -- I guess not too much weather to discuss tonight...tropics just look like a big bunch of rain for poor PR...YUCK
268. palmettobug53
2:23 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
I'd been watching a while. Never blogged before last night. Didn't get on Wunderground much last season, but this year I have. I've got a ton of sites bookmarked, that I've been checking daily during last year's storm season and this year's. Am slowly learning how to read all those maps, models, etc. and forming my own opinions as to what things will do. Haven't done too terribly bad; the guys at work call me the office weatherperson.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
267. CalGal
2:21 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
I'm thinking this would be such a valuable tool in a high school classroom. I have learned more about geography, climate, cultures of the various countries, etc. over the past week. When you are watching a storm develop and move, you really get a sense of where things are, and how small the world is. You get such an intimate feel for a region and how its people are impacted. I'll write my congressman.

266. LakeWorthFinn
2:18 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Hi CalGal and Palmetto, I'm new too, just found this site 3 days ago and love it. Just a few buggers once in a while...
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7421
265. palmettobug53
2:07 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Man, I would jones BIG TIME if I couldn't keep myself updated with my weather info during the storm season. I'm smack dab on the coast, and each year is an increasing nail-biter!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
264. Skyepony (Mod)
2:02 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Hey, Yeh ~ new bloggers!

I was shocked, out lookin for new info on the weather privitization bill. Googled s786 is1s (the bill #). My blog was 3rd! on google! So hey people are lookin at it so keep the info commin. I just updated it (click on my name to check it out).

Tidbit fom Sen. Nelson~ A spokesman for Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., said the bill threatens to push the weather service back to a "pre-Internet era" a questionable move in light of the four hurricanes that struck the state last year. Nelson serves on the Senate Commerce Committee, which has been assigned to consider the bill.

"The weather service proved so instrumental and popular and helpful in the wake of the hurricanes. How can you make an argument that we should pull it off the Net now?" said Nelson's spokesman, Dan McLaughlin. "What are you going to do, charge hurricane victims to go online, or give them a pop-up ad?"

Can't thank ya'll enough for helping
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 39718
263. palmettobug53
2:02 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Ah, jeez, you're gonna make me go it alone?
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
262. CalGal
2:01 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Um...It was kinda foggy here for an hour or so yesterday morning. So I might have to wash my car this weekend.

Sorry, that's the best I can do. We don't really have "weather" per se. How about I just hang off here to the side and watch.
261. palmettobug53
2:00 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Thanks. Like I said, I just got up the nerve last nite to pipe up. Not really sure about blog etiquette, so if I goof, pls explain.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
260. CosmicEvents
1:58 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Welcome CalGal and Palmetto
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5695
259. palmettobug53
1:55 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Hey, WMD, don't think you're clogging up too much tonight. It's been slow. Thought I was sick of rain, you're gettin clobbered with that stuff up north, huh? We had a gullywasher here two weeks ago, that had everything flooded.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
258. Weathermandan
1:52 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
UPDATE from LI, NY :-) lol

aand we're back lol still getting pounded with wind gusts to 45 mph...the rain has let up slightly but it's still coming down and there's a decent amount of street flooding. some people in town are starting to lose power and there are branches everywhere. lawn furniture is starting to blow around as well. another area of heavier rain is starting to move in off the ocean with another one to two inches of rain expected by dawn.

Rainfall:
since 6pm: 0.17"
since 6pm 10/11: 5.05"
since last Thursday (10/6; when this whole rainy pattern started): 7.92"

other notes: coastal flooding (tidal departures of 2-4')

just thought I'd post some little stuff lol. i'm still fairly new at this so if i shouldn't be posting stuff like this (if it's clogging the blog or whatever) please let me know

k thanx :-)
257. palmettobug53
1:46 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Hey, CalGal, you're not alone. I'm taking the plunge with blogging for the first time, myself. I watched for a good while and finally got up the nerve to pipe up.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
256. CalGal
1:44 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Greetings all from So Cal. This is my virgin voyage with Blogging. A few days ago I didn't know what a Blog was. But my boyfriend is in Honduras this month working on a Scuba boat and we are pretty much incommunicado. You folks have been my lifeline. So I won't take up too much of your space or time, but I wanted to join to support you, and to say thanks. If it were not for you, I would have gone out of my mind over the past couple of weeks. I'm keeping a close eye on Utila. Let me know if I should be worried. Thanks for being there.
CalGal.
255. palmettobug53
1:40 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
Anyone home? Think that wave around 30W10N will develop into anything?
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25514
253. 8888888889gg
1:19 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
i see that how do you like it
252. cirrocumulus
12:57 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
The area around Jamaica looks a little like it could start something!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
251. cgableshurrycanegal
12:53 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
catch you all later, feeding dogs!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
250. cgableshurrycanegal
12:52 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
umm, not a good idea to say that about a major hurricane heading in any particular direction... if we get a new person to the blog and they don't know you're goofing around, you could totally freak him/her out with that post.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
249. cgableshurrycanegal
12:50 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
888, dropped by your blog!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
248. LakeWorthFinn
12:33 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
dcw, got in now, all ok
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7421
247. aquak9
12:31 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
hey dcw, I'm in like flynn...yepper's i even posted(?) something of zero importance!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26814
246. tornadoty
12:30 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
It worked for me, dcw.
245. dcw
12:26 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
My link doesn't open? Weird, it does when I click on it and works perfectly. Anyone else try?
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
244. 8888888889gg
12:24 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
ok then i see you on my yahoo im then ok then
243. theboldman
12:19 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
hey 8888 i added you to my list k
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
242. phelp
12:17 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
hey 889, I commented on your blog!
241. 8888888889gg
12:16 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
oops did i say cat 5 hurricane i think they are going to kill me for saying that this trying to keep this blog going
240. theboldman
12:11 AM GMT on October 13, 2005
dang david dont scare people I REPEAT THERE IS NO HURRICANE COMING TO FLORDIA
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2

Viewing: 290 - 240

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley
Big Sur Clouds
Steaming Redwood