Joplin tornado toll at 116; dangerous tornado outbreak expected today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on May 24, 2011

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Severe weather is expected again today in storm-torn Joplin, Missouri, as rescuers sift through the rubble of their town that was devastated by the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. A violent high-end EF-4 tornado with winds of 190 – 198 mph carved a 7-mile long, ¾ to one mile-wide path of near-total destruction through Joplin beginning at 5:41pm CDT Sunday evening. In nine terrifying minutes, the tornado killed at least 116 people, injured 500 more, and obliterated huge sections of the town. Damage from the tornado is so severe that pavement was ripped from the ground, and the level of damage is so extreme that this is likely to surpass last month's Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado as the costliest tornado of all-time.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri tornado, one minute before the tornado touched down at 5:41pm CDT. There is a hook echo apparent, though not a classic well-defined one.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the period May 22 – 24 over the region surrounding Joplin. Rains of 1.83" fell on the city yesterday, a record for the date.

The Joplin tornado's place in history
According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his post, The World's Deadliest Tornadoes, the death toll of 116 from the Joplin tornado ranks as the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947, when a violent F-5 tornado hit Woodward, Oklahoma, killing 181. However, it is now thought that the Woodward tornado was actually one of a series of tornadoes, and the tornado that hit Woodward killed 107 people. If that is true, we have to back all the way to 1936 to find the last U.S. tornado that killed more people than 2011's Joplin tornado. In 1936, violent tornadoes a day apart hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) rates this year's Joplin tornado as the 9th deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time.

This year's tornado death toll now stands at 482, making it the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. That year, three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (89 – 94 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Video 1. The last year with more tornado deaths than 2011 was 1953, when three great tornadoes killed more than 90 people each. This old newsreel video shows destruction from the first of these deadly 1953 tornadoes, the May 11, 1953 F-5 tornado that hit downtown Waco Texas, killing 114 people. The wunderground youtube channel has almost 300 old newsreel videos of historically significant weather events.

What's going on?
It's been an incredibly dangerous and deadly year for tornadoes. On April 14 - 16, we had the largest tornado outbreak in world history, with 162 tornadoes hitting the Southeast U.S. That record lasted just two weeks, when the unbelievable April 25 – 28 Super Outbreak hit. Unofficially, that outbreak had 327 tornadoes, more than double the previous record. The legendary April 3 – 4 1974 Super Outbreak has now fallen to third place, with 148 tornadoes. Damage from the April 25 – 28, 2011 outbreak was estimated to be as high as $5 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak in history; the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April 27 may end up being the most expensive tornado of all-time—until the damage from Sunday's Joplin tornado is tabulated. Officially, 875 tornadoes hit the U.S. In April 2011, making it the busiest tornado month in history. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April tornado record was 267, set in 1974, and April has averaged just 161 tornadoes over the past decade.

So what's going on? Why are there so many tornadoes, and so many people getting killed? Well, the high death toll this year is partly just bad luck. Violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes usually miss heavily populated areas, and we've had the misfortune of having two such tornadoes track over cities with more than 50,000 people (the Joplin tornado, and the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham EF-4 tornado in Alabama, which killed 61 people on April 27.) This sort of bad luck occurred in both 1953, when F-5 tornadoes hit Flint, Worcester, and Waco, and in 1936, when F-5s hit Tupelo and Gainesville. However, this year's death toll is more remarkable than the 1953 or 1936 death tolls, since in 2011 we have Doppler radar and a modern tornado warning system that is very good at providing an average of twelve minutes of warning time. The warning time for the Joplin tornado was 24 minutes. The first tornado warning wasn't issued until 1948, and virtually all tornadoes from the 1950s and earlier hit with no warning. On average, tornado deaths in the United States decreased from 8 per 1 million people in 1925 to 0.12 per 1 million people in 2000. Had this year's tornadoes occurred 50 years ago, I expect the death toll would have exceeded three thousand.


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. There are no obvious trends in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 – 2011 from Wikipedia.)

Tornadoes require two main ingredients for formation—instability and wind shear. Instability is at a maximum when there is record warm air with plenty of moisture at low levels, and cold dry air aloft. April 2011 sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico were at their third highest levels of the past 100 years, so there was plenty of warm, moist air available to create high instability, whenever approaching storm systems pulled the Gulf air northwards into Tornado Alley, and brought cold, dry air south from Canada. The La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, in part, caused this spring's jet stream to have very strong winds that changed speed and direction with height. This sort of shearing force (wind shear) was ideal for putting a twist on thunderstorm updrafts, allowing more numerous and more intense tornadoes than usual to occur. Was this year's heightened wind shear and instability the result of climate change? We don't know. Over the past 30 years, there have not been any noticeable trends wind shear and instability over the Lower Mississippi Valley, according to the NOAA Climate Scene Investigations team. Furthermore, there have been no upward trend in the number of violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes over the past 60 years, or in the number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes (Figure 3.) However, this year's remarkable violent tornado activity—17 such tornadoes, with tornado season a little more than half over—brings our two-year total for the decade of 2010 – 2019 to 30. At this rate, we'll have more than 150 violent tornadoes by decade's end, beating the record of 108 set in the 1950s. In summary, this year's incredibly violent tornado season is not part of a trend. It is either a fluke, the start of a new trend, or an early warning symptom that the climate is growing unstable and is transitioning to a new, higher energy state with the potential to create unprecedented weather and climate events. All are reasonable explanations, but we don't have a long enough history of good tornado data to judge which is most likely to be correct.

More severe weather today
Yesterday, survivors of the tornado endured a 12-hour period with two severe thunderstorm warnings, a record 1.83” of rain, hail, and lightning that struck two police officers. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recorded 11 preliminary reports of tornadoes yesterday, along with 315 reports of damaging winds and 182 reports of hail up to 3.5” in diameter. The severe weather threat is much higher today, and SPC has placed a large section of eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma in their "High Risk" region for severe weather potential, and warn of the potential for long-lived strong tornadoes. This is their third "High Risk" forecast for the year, and the first since the terrible April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak. That day was the busiest tornado day in world history, with 198 tornadoes occurring in a 24-hour period. Over 300 people died. The other "High Risk" forecast by SPC came during the final day of the April 14 – 16 outbreak over the Southeast U.S. Fifty-two tornadoes hit that day, and 26 people died in North Carolina and Virginia. The severe weather threat will continue into Wednesday, when additional tornadoes are likely along a swath from Arkansas to Indiana.


Figure 4. Severe weather threat for Tuesday, May 23, 2011.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 2. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the Red Cross website, or portlight.org blog. Portlight has been very active bringing aid to the victims of this year's tornadoes. Below is the damage survey from the Joplin tornado:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
938 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...JOPLIN TORNADO GIVEN A PRELIMINARY HIGH END EF-4 RATING...

* DATE...22 MAY 2011
* BEGIN LOCATION...APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN
* END LOCATION...1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF DUQUESNE
* ESTIMATED BEGIN TIME...541 PM
* ESTIMATED END TIME...550 PM
* MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4
* ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...190-198 MPH
* ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 OF A MILE
* PATH LENGTH...7 MILES
* FATALITIES...116 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY
* INJURIES...400 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY
* BEGIN LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.57 W
* END LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.39 W

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS RATED THE TORNADO THAT KILLED OVER 100 PEOPLE IN AND AROUND JOPLIN AS A HIGH END EF-4 TORNADO.

BASED UPON SURVEYS COMPLETED TODAY...MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 190 AND 198 MPH. THE TORNADO HAD A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 3/4 TO ONE MILE.

THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 541 PM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTRY CLUB AND 32ND STREET. ADDITIONAL SURVEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCTED TO FURTHER DEFINE THE STARTING POINT AND INTENSITY AT THIS LOCATION.

DAMAGE BECAME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TORNADO CROSSED MAIDEN LANE...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO NEARLY ALL WINDOWS ON THREE SIDES OF ST JOHNS HOSPITAL AS WELL AS TO THE ROOF. THE TORNADO FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS IT DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND BUSINESSES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE HOSPITAL. THE HIGHEST RATED DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WAS TO A CHURCH SCHOOL THAT HAD ALL BUT A PORTION OF ITS EXTERIOR WALLS DESTROYED AS WELL AS TO A NURSING HOME. WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ESTIMATED AT 160 TO 180 MPH.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROY OVER 100 HOMES BETWEEN 32ND AND 20TH STREETS. THREE STORY APARTMENT COMPLEXES HAD THE TOP TWO FLOORS REMOVED...OTHER TWO STORY COMPLEXES WERE PARTIALLY LEVELED.

A BANK WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VAULT.

A DILLONS GROCERY STORE ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL DAMAGE. LASTLY...THE EXTERIOR AND INTERIOR WALLS OF A TECHNICAL SCHOOL...A MORTAR AND REBAR REINFORCED CINDER BLOCK BUILDING...FAILED.

THE TORNADO CROSSED RANGELINE ROAD NEAR 20TH STREET. THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE WAS NOTED JUST EAST OF THIS INTERSECTION WHERE A HOME DEPOT WAS DESTROYED BY AN ESTIMATED 190 TO NEARLY 200 MPH WINDS.
IN ADDITION...THE CUMMINS BUILDING...A CONCRETE BLOCK AND HEAVY STEEL BUILDING...HAD ITS STEEL ROOF BEAMS COLLAPSE. SPORTS ACADEMY AND THE WALMART ALSO SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF 20TH STREET DESTROYING NUMEROUS WAREHOUSE STYLE FACILITIES AND RESIDENCES THROUGH DUQUESNE ROAD. WINDS IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO APPROACH 200 MPH.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROYING NUMEROUS HOMES BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNED SOUTHEAST TOWARD INTERSTATE 44.

SUBSEQUENT DAMAGE SURVEYS WILL BE REQUIRED TO DETERMINE THE SCOPE OF ADDITIONAL REPORTS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 71 AND INTERSTATE 44.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

Jeff Masters

May 22, 2011 (WisconsinCowboy)
Hailstones in Westfield, WI
May 22, 2011
Wall cloud (weatherfanatic2010)
wall cloud with scud clouds rising up into it that looked like a funnel but were actually not ratating with the wall cloud.
Wall cloud
Tornado? (thomasanthony)
This is a shot looking west toward Topeka Kansas, about 5 miles away, as the wall cloud came closer to my position.
Tornado?
Wall Cloud (thomasanthony)
Rotating wall cloud coming through Perry Kansas. That speck towards the top is a helicopter.
Wall Cloud
Cleora, OK Tornado (okeedoky)
Very active tornado day 5/22 was. About the same time as Joplin, MO was getting hit, we had this one come right over the Grand Lake RV park and put down some EF-3 damage on the other side of the hay field you see.
Cleora, OK Tornado

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
should be another fast and furious day i see maybe by 1 pm this afternoon dev should commence along the line


With these storms here in Illinois this morning it will likley shove that higher risk zone to the south I-64. It's going to take a lot of sun to cook this atmosphere back up and I don't see that happening hopefully.
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Quoting srada:


There is also another child who is 16 name Will Norton who had just graduated that is missing too. He was sucked out through the sunroof of his vehicle while driving with his father. The pyschological effect that these storms will have on people will be felt many, many years later.


Just read that story on CBS News' site. Something about that story doesn't add up for me. He's alive and checked himself into a hospital but they don't know which one... dunno. it just doesn't sit right.
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1075. IKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed May 25 2011
Location of Eye: 13.1 N Lat 127.6 E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 370 km (200 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) East of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 420 km (227 nm) East of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 455 km (245 nm) ESE of Iriga City
Distance 6: 480 km (260 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 7: 520 km (280 nm) ESE of Daet, CamNorte
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: 2AM-2PM Tomorrow
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]





Is PAGSAS for real?????

Only agency with this sort of track. What are all the other agencies missing or what is PAGASA missing?
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1072. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting KeysieLife:
TOR:CON index updated at 6am this morning:

AR northwest - 6
AR northeast - 8
AR southwest - 5
AR southeast - 7
IA south - 2
IL central - 5
IL south - 9
IL north - 2
IN - 4
KS east - 3 early
KY west - 9
KY central - 4 to 5
KY east - 3
LA northwest - 4
MI south - 2
MO southeast - 8
MO south-central 6
MO east-central - 6
MO southwest - 4
MO north - 3
MS northwest - 6
NC northwest - 2
NE southeast - 2
OH - 4
OK extreme east - 3 early
PA west - 3
TN west - 9
TN middle - 4 to 5
TN northeast - 3
TX east as far south as Beeville and Jasper - 4
VA southwest - 2 to 3
WV west an central - 4
other areas - less than 2
should be another fast and furious day i see maybe by 1 pm this afternoon dev should commence along the line
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54637
TOR:CON index updated at 6am this morning:

AR northwest - 6
AR northeast - 8
AR southwest - 5
AR southeast - 7
IA south - 2
IL central - 5
IL south - 9
IL north - 2
IN - 4
KS east - 3 early
KY west - 9
KY central - 4 to 5
KY east - 3
LA northwest - 4
MI south - 2
MO southeast - 8
MO south-central 6
MO east-central - 6
MO southwest - 4
MO north - 3
MS northwest - 6
NC northwest - 2
NE southeast - 2
OH - 4
OK extreme east - 3 early
PA west - 3
TN west - 9
TN middle - 4 to 5
TN northeast - 3
TX east as far south as Beeville and Jasper - 4
VA southwest - 2 to 3
WV west an central - 4
other areas - less than 2
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1070. IKE
Violent storms kill 13 in Okla., Kan., Ark.

By KRISTI EATON
The Associated Press
EL RENO, Okla... Violent storms that swept through a chunk of the
central U.S. killed at least 13 people in three states, while toppling
trees, crushing cars and ripping apart a rural Arkansas fire station.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1068. srada
Quoting IKE:
If you think you're having a rough day....how would you like to be facing what this family is facing, with a baby missing from the Joplin tornado........

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Skyular-Logsd on-home/218457884839786


There is also another child who is 18 name Will Norton who had just graduated that is missing too. He was sucked out through the sunroof of his vehicle while driving with his father. The pyschological effect that these storms will have on people will be felt many, many years later.
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1067. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 10 NM RAGGED EYE. TY 04W HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING INTENSITY
FROM 60 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. A 242316Z SSMIS
IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH AN OBLONG EYEWALL
AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. TY 04W
HAS SLOWED AND BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 04W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE 24/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER CHINA, EAST CHINA SEA AND SOUTH CHINA
SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR HAS SHIFTED WEST INTO SOUTHEAST ASIA AND
WEAKENED. BASED ON THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT TY 04W WILL TURN POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK
EAST OF LUZON AND TAIWAN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 04W SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
SHOULD PEAK AT 115 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. AFTER TAU 60,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SHOULD
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED FROM
A CROSS-TRACK PERSPECTIVE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL. THE
UKMO MODEL IS HIGHLY SUSPECT DUE TO THE POORLY INITIALIZED AND
FORECASTED INTENSITIES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TRACK NEAR OKINAWA THEN SHARPLY RE-CURVING
SOUTH OF HONSHU AHEAD OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DIG INTO WESTERN JAPAN NEAR TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE,
HOWEVER, VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM AN ALONG-TRACK PERSPECTIVE WITH
NOGAPS, GFDN AND GFS EAST OF HONSHU BY TAU 120. THE JGSM AND ECMWF
TRACKERS ARE QUITE A BIT SLOWER AND INDICATE A TAU 120 POSITION NEAR
KYUSHU. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 96
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EQUATORWARD AT TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 04W IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY NEAR OKINAWA DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
THE KANTO PLAIN BUT SHOULD REMAIN A STRONG 50-55 KNOT MIDLATITUDE
LOW.//
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54637
1065. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
TPPN10 PGTW 250909

A. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA)

B. 25/0832Z

C. 13.0N

D. 127.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: W1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. A WHT EYE IS SURROUNDED BY
A WHT RING YIELDS AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 FOR A EYE
ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 5.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES. OFF
HOUR INTENSITY DVORAK ACCOMPLISHED TO SHOW SYSTEM WEAKENING.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0445Z 12.6N 127.9E MMHS
25/0457Z 12.4N 128.0E MMHS
25/0517Z 12.6N 128.0E AMSR


KIENZLE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54637
1064. emcf30
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Morning emcf. Great coverage with the severe wx, as always. Listen...do you see the current moderate risk over the middle Mississippi valley being upgraded to a high risk in a few hours?


Good morning cat5, I am looking at it now. I do believe we are going to have a bad day in TN, KY,and AR. I am going to dig into here in a few mins.
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1063. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good morning all another day unfolds
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54637
1062. IKE
If you think you're having a rough day....how would you like to be facing what this family is facing, with a baby missing from the Joplin tornado........

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Skyular-Logsd on-home/218457884839786
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:

The Tampa rain threat......in a picture....




Lets not Wishcast for rain in Tampa. Heading down that way to visit the grand kids and attend by grandson second birthday party. It can rain on Monday.
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1059. IKE

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Is that a little bit of green over Tampa Bay? I think it is picking up the fountain sprays from the local water parks.
The Tampa rain threat......in a picture....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1057. Gearsts
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1056. emcf30


Reed Timmer Intercept
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1055. Gearsts
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Quoting IKE:
Death toll from Joplin,Missouri tornado now at 125. Per CNN.


Gah :(
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1053. IKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1052. IKE
2 day QPF....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1051. IKE
Death toll from Joplin,Missouri tornado now at 125. Per CNN.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting nocaneindy:
Thanks Aussie, for both replies!

This show's how big Song Da really is.
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Thanks Aussie, for both replies!
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Quoting nocaneindy:
Does anyone know of any radar that is or will pick Songda up? Tia..

There is no public accessible radars in the Philippines. Also due to lack of infrastructure.
Loops of Song Da.
Loop 1
Loop 2
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Quoting nocaneindy:


10 miles is still a pretty tight eye. I hope few if any have to endure it.

Now a blog question. What would you consider more severe, a pin hole eye or one with the stadium effect going on? Just curious...

Well, Wilma had both a pin-hole eye and stadium effect, we all know about Wilma. Don't normally get a clear stadium effect until a Cat 3,4 or 5 system. Pin-holes can happen in any, all depends on how big the system is.
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Does anyone know of any radar that is or will pick Songda up? Tia..
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Weather.com satellite imagery of Songda What a beast!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Its a cat 3 now with 120 mph winds!


Look at that core! Amazing!

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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!! typhonn songda
Its a cat 3 now with 120 mph winds!
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


I'm not sure exactly what you meant with your question, as far as I know a a stadium effect can appear in a pinhole eye. The term pinhole is just a measure of how small the eye of the cyclone is.


Yeah I have a way with being vague and confusing I guess. (just ask my wife) You answered my question to an extent, I was just wondering if the smaller the eye regardless of appearance, or say a 20-30 mile eye with stadium effect, which would be stronger? Does it matter? I suspected the smaller eye regardless of appearance, since that would mean tighter isobars, right?

Purely for my own learning curve, I'm still attempting to get a full grasp on hurricanes.
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Quoting nocaneindy:


10 miles is still a pretty tight eye. I hope few if any have to endure it.

Now a blog question. What would you consider more severe, a pin hole eye or one with the stadium effect going on? Just curious...


I'm not sure exactly what you meant with your question, as far as I know a a stadium effect can appear in a pinhole eye. The term pinhole is just a measure of how small the eye of the cyclone is.
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:
A 10 mile wide eye, isn't exactly a pinhole eye in my opinion. In that satellite photo, the eye is obscured by the CDO


10 miles is still a pretty tight eye. I hope few if any have to endure it.

Now a blog question. What would you consider more severe, a pin hole eye or one with the stadium effect going on? Just curious...
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A 10 mile wide eye, isn't exactly a pinhole eye in my opinion. In that satellite photo, the eye is obscured by the CDO
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Morning all. Well, morning here in the UK. BBC News had a report, seemed a bit bad but not catastrophe-bad, so I hope they're right there and what touched down in the main was relatively weak or in unpopulated spots.

Am I right in understanding then that it looked like this storm was a bit too perfect for its own tornado-forming good and sort of over-cooked itself, unable to form much in the way of coherent systems? Here's hoping.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
1037. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
quite the pressure drop on Typhoon Song Da.

From 975hPa down to 960hPa in 6hr is quiet a drop.
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1035. Gearsts
Quoting AussieStorm:

i said that at comment 999. Bit slow ain't ya
Not here all day reading the blog, cant keep up with everything.
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:
Pinhole, I think

i said that at comment 999. Bit slow ain't ya.

It has a A 10 NM RAGGED EYE as per the JTWC Analysis
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1033. Gearsts
Quoting JustSouthofEquator:
Pinhole, I think
;)
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Pinhole, I think
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Quoting Gearsts:
WOW at this thing! You can see the little eye, DONT SAY IT...

don't say what?
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1030. Gearsts
WOW at this thing! You can see the little eye, DONT SAY IT...
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:
To aussie:

Oh right, because the circulation enhances the monsoon.

Btw, I hope the flooding situation has eased up now that La Nina is over. Strange to think that the last time I went there, Australia is in severe drought (Melbourne)

Yeah all the flooding is gone now, just a bit of clean up and rebuilding to do. still a AU$30Bil disaster. Still many people living in shelters up in far north Queensland after TC Yasi. Insurance companies playing hard ball as always.
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first comment of the year! We have a week to go till the first day of hurricane season, so I decided to make way on a week early. Everybody saying active season.I can't believe that these tornadoes are hitting these big cities too! Its crazy!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.