Deadliest U.S. tornado since 1953 rips through Joplin, Missouri, killing 89

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on May 23, 2011

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The incredibly violent tornado season of 2011 struck another sickening blow last night, when a violent tornado carved a ½ – ¾ mile-wide path of devastation through Joplin, Missouri. At least 89 people died, hundreds were injured, and huge sections of the town virtually obliterated. Damage from the tornado is so severe that pavement was ripped from the ground, which is characteristic of a top-end EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph. This was almost certainly a least an EF-4 tornado with winds over 166 mph, and the level of damage is so extreme that this is likely to surpass last month's Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado as the costliest tornado of all-time.


Figure 1. Cars stacked on top of each other in front of the heavily damaged St. Johns Regional Medical Center after the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri. Note the pavement ripped up from the road and piled in front of the cars. Tornadoes powerful enough to rip up pavement are frequently classified as EF-5 with winds in excess of 200 mph. Image credit: Chris McCrillis, posted to Twitter.

The huge supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin tornado formed over extreme southeast Kansas yesterday afternoon, along the boundary between warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air moving south from Canada. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had put the region in its “moderate risk” region for severe weather. As the supercell moved into Southwest Missouri, it spawned the tornado that roared through Joplin at 5:45pm CDT. This storm generated other tornadoes, straight-line wind damage, and flash flooding from torrential rains that exceeded six inches as it moved east southeast across Southwest Missouri. SPC recorded 48 preliminary reports of tornadoes yesterday, bringing the 2-day total for the current outbreak to 70. A tornado also killed one person and injured 22 in Minneapolis Sunday. Separate tornadoes killed one person each in Andice, Texas and Reading, Kansas on Saturday—the first tornado deaths in the U.S. since the April 25 – 28 Super Outbreak.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri tornado, ½ hour after it devastated the city (circle with the “+” symbol.)


Figure 3. Radar Doppler velocity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri tornado, ½ hour after it devastated the city (circle with the “+” symbol.)


Figure 4. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Deadliest tornado since 1953
Yesterday's Joplin, Missouri tornado is the deadliest single tornado in the U.S. since June 10, 1953, when 94 people died in the Worcester, Massachusetts tornado. The previous deadliest tornado in the past 50 years occurred just last month, when 65 people died in the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham EF-4 tornado in Alabama. This year's tornado death toll now stands at 455, making it the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. The deadliest year was 1925, with 794 deaths. That was the year of the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time, the great Tri-State tornado, which killed 695 people in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

More severe weather today
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a large section of the Midwest U.S., including portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, in its “moderate risk” region for severe weather today. The threat of tornadoes will not be as great today as yesterday, with today's main threat being large hail and damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds. However, I do expect we will see a dozen or so tornadoes today, and residents of the at-risk area need to keep in mind the deadly history of this storm system. The severe weather threat will continue into Tuesday, when additional tornadoes are likely over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Southwest Missouri. A severe thunderstorm roared through Joplin between 8:30am and 9am CDT this morning, bringing heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts to 36 mph. Undoubtedly, this storm frayed some nerves, and the city will remain at risk of seeing more severe thunderstorms through Tuesday night.


Figure 5. Severe weather threat for Monday, May 23, 2011.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video. We won't see a lot of spectacular videos of the Joplin tornado, since it was wrapped in rain and difficult to see.

Listen to my 12-minute interview on the historic April 2011 tornadoes for EarthSky.org, which aired on NPR earlier this month. I discuss how climate change might impact severe weather and tornadoes.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on The World's Deadliest Tornadoes.

My 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.


Figure 6. The Portlight relief trailer being loaded in Summerville, SC, in preparation for a journey to the April tornado disaster zone.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this spring's severe weather has brought, stop by the Red Cross website, or portlight.org blog. Portlight has been very active bringing aid to the victims of this year's tornadoes.

Jeff Masters

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Wall Cloud (thomasanthony)
Rotating wall cloud coming through Perry Kansas. That speck towards the top is a helicopter.
Wall Cloud
Gran Tara by ketchum ok. (wick918)
The one that hit Joplin Mo.
Gran Tara  by ketchum ok.
Reading, KS (wheelingrabbit)
Reading, KS Grain Silo
Reading, KS

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
92L still has that dry air to deal with though...

Yes, This is true, But wind shear is on it's side so it won't be getting dry air FORCED into it's core, but there still will be dry air.
Wind Shear Dropping by 30 Knots!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
it was an "invisible judgement day"
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting presslord:


the World is gonna end October 21...gonna be a bad earthquake....I'm talkin' REALLY bad...

You dont say....
I hope the interviewer is going to bonk him on the head
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Its Subtropical right now, so it doesn't need 26C waters to help it.


I know its sub tropical, but what I was saying was if it crossed that line then it may gain tropical characteristics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
Quoting pottery:

Just give us a brief synopsis.
I might bring-up my supper if I hear him....


the World is gonna end October 21...gonna be a bad earthquake....I'm talkin' REALLY bad...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
92L GFS phase diagram 18z.


92L CMC phase diagram 12z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I think there's a 53% Chance that the NHC will up the percentage to 30%. I think they'll wait and do it noon tomorrow. Unless it's even more impressive, No telling... Its a sit and wait game right now, if it becomes more impresive then i would upgrade the %, but not until there's some good organization within the invest.


It is getting better organized though, decent convection, and wrapping around. But I agree with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


No thanks, especially since his followers gave up all their possesions, emptied their bank accounts and sold their houses! LOL


yea...and he ain't givin' it back, either....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting tropicfreak:



92L is in waters below 80 F, but based on it's current movement, it's heading into warmer waters. If it crosses that dotted line separating from above 80 F and below 80 F temps, then it might, just might gain tropical characteristics.
Its Subtropical right now, so it doesn't need 26C waters to help it.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting presslord:
FYI - I'm listening to Harold Camping explain himself...Anybody interested in hearing this?

Just give us a brief synopsis.
I might bring-up my supper if I hear him....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
FYI - I'm listening to Harold Camping explain himself...Anybody interested in hearing this?


No thanks, especially since his followers gave up all their possesions, emptied their bank accounts and sold their houses! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Definitely becoming more organized.

Would not surprise me if the NHC upped it to 30% next advisory.
I think there's a 53% Chance that the NHC will up the percentage to 30%. I think they'll wait and do it noon tomorrow. Unless it's even more impressive, No telling... Its a sit and wait game right now, if it becomes more impresive then i would upgrade the %, but not until there's some good organization within the invest.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
92L firing up so more convection over it's Surface Low, the MLC/LLC is beginning it's wrap toward the convection... CLICK HERE FOR 92L VISIBLE


Very impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FYI - I'm listening to Harold Camping explain himself...Anybody interested in hearing this?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492

Tulsa, OK

Life-Threatening Flash Flooding and Severe Weather Tonight...Strong Tornadoes Possible Late Tuesday and Tuesday Night

Link
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btw Shen...your explanation of the keypad mystery makes sense to me...but surely takes some joy outta my life..
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting pottery:

Nice!
heheheheh
you guys are the Cream!


So who is Jack Bruce, who is Ginger Baker, and who is Eric Clapton? :)
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92L still has that dry air to deal with though...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870



92L is in waters below 80 F, but based on it's current movement, it's heading into warmer waters. If it crosses that dotted line separating from above 80 F and below 80 F temps, then it might, just might gain tropical characteristics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
tropicalanalysts, can you post those again...
Think that 92L should be @ 30% tomorrow, because it's losing it's frontal characteristics, if it organizes, and keeps it going, gives a little more effort in structure, and looks impressive by thursday, i could see possibly getting a subtropical depression...
Timeline if it follows the Above ^:
Tuesday: 30%, Night: 30% to 40%
Wednesday: 40%, Night: 50%
Thursday: 60%, Night 90% or Sub-Tropical Depression.
Friday: 90 to 100%/Sub-Tropical Depression, Night: Formed


I think the models may getting updated, seems to not be up attm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
Quoting kimoskee:


NOoooooo!!! That's not possible!!!!

I think they used the same key pads as for walk up locations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L firing up so more convection over it's Surface Low, the MLC/LLC is beginning it's wrap toward the convection... CLICK HERE FOR 92L VISIBLE
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Seems to be wrapping around better, but slowly.


Definitely becoming more organized.

Would not surprise me if the NHC upped it to 30% next advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
The Classic severe weather set-up as depicted by today's 12Z GFS. All frames valid 7PM CDT tomorrow evening. Things will probably get started much earlier (noon?) and a bit farther to the west over OK and KS. Link to a full size graphic at bottom left of each chart.

Starting at the surface with good convergence along the boundaries and backed (SE winds)flow in towards the surface low.

At 850mb, a fairly focused 40 knot LLJ with SSW winds bringing moisture and low level shear almost to Nebraska. Note the winds at this level veer slightly as compared to the surface winds. (SE to S or SSW).

At 500mb, very strong forced ascent provided by vorticity associated with the 500mb low/shortwave. Keeping with the veering winds with height, SW over OK at this level. Good directional shear present.

At 300mb, the plains will be under very good divergence aloft provided by an approaching jet max, the exit region or left front quad of the jet. If you're keeping up, the entrance region or right rear quadrant of this jet is over southern New Mexico.

Photobucket
Surface

Photobucket
850mb

Photobucket
500mb

A thousand pardons. The graphic should read LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION-not ENTRANCE. Will try to fix that pretty quick

Photobucket
300mb
+1 thanks for the analysis :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Just shaking your chain. I used to wonder about the same thing till I used a downtown walk-up and realized it was the same machine just different location. Guy with a guide dog or stick could use it, no problem. Easier to make em all the same and stick where you need them than to make special feature ones. And no it doesn't mean a damn thing that you have a sense of humor and still can care about all kinds of folks, although PC types don't seem to get it.

ShenValleyFlyFish
an equal opportunity offender

Nice!
heheheheh
you guys are the Cream!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
left front exit?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


Wow, Really low, probably some low mechanical energy from the water being so low.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting VAstorms:
There looks to be some super cells forming in Oklahoma and along the Oklahoma Missouri border right now. Looks like a hook echo in the storm west of Tulsa.


Hey fellow Virginian, where are you from, I am from Richmond.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
tropicalanalysts, can you post those again...
Think that 92L should be @ 30% tomorrow, because it's losing it's frontal characteristics, if it organizes, and keeps it going, gives a little more effort in structure, and looks impressive by thursday, i could see possibly getting a subtropical depression...
Timeline if it follows the Above ^:
Tuesday: 30%, Night: 30% to 40%
Wednesday: 40%, Night: 50%
Thursday: 60%, Night 90% or Sub-Tropical Depression.
Friday: 90 to 100%/Sub-Tropical Depression, Night: Formed
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yep, The Topic of 2011:
3 Nasty Earthquakes, 3 to 4 Major Tornado Outbreaks, Mississippi River Flooding at catastrophic levels, Major Drought In Texas, W Oklahoma, W Louisiana, E New Mexico, and all over the SE(but getting a bit better in places) Possible Major US hurricane Year, Still a good 6 months left of the year...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Just shaking your chain. I used to wonder about the same thing till I used a downtown walk-up and realized it was the same machine just different location. Guy with a guide dog or stick could use it, no problem. Easier to make em all the same and stick where you need them than to make special feature ones. And no it doesn't mean a damn thing that you have a sense of humor and still can care about all kinds of folks, although PC types don't seem to get it.

ShenValleyFlyFish
an equal opportunity offender



ah...I feel much better now knowing you were just giving me hell....the consistency gives me peace...you are definitely one of the good guys
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting presslord:


actually...I didn't know it...and we are...and I'm not sure how the two are even remotely connected...
Just shaking your chain. I used to wonder about the same thing till I used a downtown walk-up and realized it was the same machine just different location. Guy with a guide dog or stick could use it, no problem. Easier to make em all the same and stick where you need them than to make special feature ones. And no it doesn't mean a damn thing that you have a sense of humor and still can care about all kinds of folks, although PC types don't seem to get it.

ShenValleyFlyFish
an equal opportunity offender
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
375. beell
The Classic severe weather set-up as depicted by today's 12Z GFS. All frames valid 7PM CDT tomorrow evening. Things will probably get started much earlier (noon?) and a bit farther to the west over OK and KS. Link to a full size graphic at bottom left of each chart.

Starting at the surface with good convergence along the boundaries and backed (SE winds)flow in towards the surface low.

At 850mb, a fairly focused 40 knot LLJ with SSW winds bringing moisture and low level shear almost to Nebraska. Note the winds at this level veer slightly as compared to the surface winds. (SE to S or SSW).

At 500mb, very strong forced ascent provided by vorticity associated with the 500mb low/shortwave. Keeping with the veering winds with height, SW over OK at this level. Good directional shear present.

At 300mb, the plains will be under very good divergence aloft provided by an approaching jet max, the exit region or left front quad of the jet. If you're keeping up, the entrance region or right rear quadrant of this jet is over southern New Mexico.

Photobucket
Surface

Photobucket
850mb

Photobucket
500mb

Photobucket
300mb

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
374. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (T1102)
9:00 AM JST May 24 2011
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Songda (980 hPa) located at 11.9N 131.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast And Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.9N 128.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 14.5N 125.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 16.9N 123.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another thing about the SOI map, is that once it gets to 0 to -10 it should hit a brick wall and rebound to around +15 or +10.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We may very well be looking at a TD/TS in the Atlantic by Wednesday or Thursday. I know these aren't really reliable, but I'll post them anyway.



We shall see, but you're right, it is looking pretty impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yep, The Topic of 2011:
3 Nasty Earthquakes, 3 to 4 Major Tornado Outbreaks, Mississippi River Flooding at catastrophic levels, Major Drought In Texas, W Oklahoma, W Louisiana, E New Mexico, and all over the SE(but getting a bit better in places) Possible Major US hurricane Year, Still a good 6 months left of the year...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting presslord:
If you know of anyone who still needs help removing debris, email mprater@cbs42.com. Got folks ready and on standby.


Thank you and your crew's for the help.
"From the folks that may not be able to thank you them selfs"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasGulf:
I encourage EVERYONE that is eligible to donate blood. Some of these victims will require a lot of surgery and blood supplies are low.

I did a double red-cell donation for last tornado outbreak, so not eligible for 3-months. Save a life. It only takes 20-minutes to do your part.


yuppers
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Wikipedia is jumping the gun again. As I always tell my students, don't rely on the information presented in wiki-articles.

The infobox on the Joplin tornado says:
"2011 Joplin tornado
Date: May 22
Time: 5:35 p.m. CDT (2235 UTC)
Rating: EF5 tornado
Damages:
Fatalities: 116
Area affected: Joplin, Missouri (part of a larger outbreak)"

And in text we read:
"A preliminary survey of the tornado damage by the National Weather Service office in Springfield, Missouri began on May 23. The initial survey confirmed a violent tornado rated as a EF5 with winds of at least 198 mph (319 km/h). Ongoing damage surveys could increase the tornado's rating to EF5 if sufficient evidence of higher associated wind speeds is found.[2]"

page version as of 00:34UTC May 24 2011. my emphasis.

As long as the Weather service has not upgraded it, it's still an EF4 - a very large and particularly destructive one though. I can only hope that the people in the Central US get a break soon. This is just unbelievably gruesome.

edit: someone corrected the article, now back at EF4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I encourage EVERYONE that is eligible to donate blood. Some of these victims will require a lot of surgery and blood supplies are low.

I did a double red-cell donation for last tornado outbreak, so not eligible for 3-months. Save a life. It only takes 20-minutes to do your part.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Another sign that La Nina is gone is the big tumble that has continued since the 30 day SOI index was at +30 in mid April. From that point to today is down to +1.4.

Yep, Atmoshpere is now in a neutral state... a big plumet of 28.6 points in just a matter of 25 days or so... definetley means we should see storms form closer to home this year... Haven't seen the SOI DROP like this in more than 3 years, the biggest Jump in the SOI was back in April of 2010, when the El Nino was demolished a La Nina, Jumped 28 points there too, -12 to +16.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Survey information can be found here.

Link
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Quoting Ameister12:

The worst has passed. I went to the basement for a little bit. It's still pretty stormy, but nothing terrible. No hail, or funnels.

Good to hear that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...Initial Storm Surveys Completed...


Severe storms producing tornadoes impacted the NWS Springfield County Warning Area during the afternoon and evening of May 22, 2011, including major damage in the Joplin, MO area. NWS Springfield storm survey teams conducted surveys on Monday. Initial tornado surveys have been completed and data is being compiled. The survey teams have determined three seperate tracks.

Joplin - EF-4

Wentworth area - EF-2

Galena area in Stone County Missouri - EF-2
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Another sign that La Nina is gone is the big tumble that has continued since the 30 day SOI index was at +30 in mid April. From that point to today is down to +1.4.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 70W CONTINUE TO SUPPORTS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N54W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS 1009 MB...CENTERED NEAR 28N55W. FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO FADE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PAIRED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 39W-53W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.
So with the frontal characteristics fading we could see the NHC bump up the % to 30% tomorrow, depending on how 92L reacts to tonight's duirnal Minimum. If it organizes slightly, fires up convection(along with no shear affecting it's core), and loses all frontal characteristics we could be on our way to getting a well accomplished invest, this system seems to not have a nearby deadline, so it should last through the week with no major shear affecting it, if it gets proper organization we could be looking at STS Arlene(or TS Arlene depending on it's (non)tropical characteristics... So be keep an eye,or two if you like, on this 3rd invest of the season... Maybe 3 times the charm? no one really knows...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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