Deadliest U.S. tornado since 1953 rips through Joplin, Missouri, killing 89

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on May 23, 2011

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The incredibly violent tornado season of 2011 struck another sickening blow last night, when a violent tornado carved a ½ – ¾ mile-wide path of devastation through Joplin, Missouri. At least 89 people died, hundreds were injured, and huge sections of the town virtually obliterated. Damage from the tornado is so severe that pavement was ripped from the ground, which is characteristic of a top-end EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph. This was almost certainly a least an EF-4 tornado with winds over 166 mph, and the level of damage is so extreme that this is likely to surpass last month's Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado as the costliest tornado of all-time.


Figure 1. Cars stacked on top of each other in front of the heavily damaged St. Johns Regional Medical Center after the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri. Note the pavement ripped up from the road and piled in front of the cars. Tornadoes powerful enough to rip up pavement are frequently classified as EF-5 with winds in excess of 200 mph. Image credit: Chris McCrillis, posted to Twitter.

The huge supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin tornado formed over extreme southeast Kansas yesterday afternoon, along the boundary between warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air moving south from Canada. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had put the region in its “moderate risk” region for severe weather. As the supercell moved into Southwest Missouri, it spawned the tornado that roared through Joplin at 5:45pm CDT. This storm generated other tornadoes, straight-line wind damage, and flash flooding from torrential rains that exceeded six inches as it moved east southeast across Southwest Missouri. SPC recorded 48 preliminary reports of tornadoes yesterday, bringing the 2-day total for the current outbreak to 70. A tornado also killed one person and injured 22 in Minneapolis Sunday. Separate tornadoes killed one person each in Andice, Texas and Reading, Kansas on Saturday—the first tornado deaths in the U.S. since the April 25 – 28 Super Outbreak.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri tornado, ½ hour after it devastated the city (circle with the “+” symbol.)


Figure 3. Radar Doppler velocity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri tornado, ½ hour after it devastated the city (circle with the “+” symbol.)


Figure 4. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Deadliest tornado since 1953
Yesterday's Joplin, Missouri tornado is the deadliest single tornado in the U.S. since June 10, 1953, when 94 people died in the Worcester, Massachusetts tornado. The previous deadliest tornado in the past 50 years occurred just last month, when 65 people died in the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham EF-4 tornado in Alabama. This year's tornado death toll now stands at 455, making it the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. The deadliest year was 1925, with 794 deaths. That was the year of the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time, the great Tri-State tornado, which killed 695 people in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

More severe weather today
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a large section of the Midwest U.S., including portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, in its “moderate risk” region for severe weather today. The threat of tornadoes will not be as great today as yesterday, with today's main threat being large hail and damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds. However, I do expect we will see a dozen or so tornadoes today, and residents of the at-risk area need to keep in mind the deadly history of this storm system. The severe weather threat will continue into Tuesday, when additional tornadoes are likely over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Southwest Missouri. A severe thunderstorm roared through Joplin between 8:30am and 9am CDT this morning, bringing heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts to 36 mph. Undoubtedly, this storm frayed some nerves, and the city will remain at risk of seeing more severe thunderstorms through Tuesday night.


Figure 5. Severe weather threat for Monday, May 23, 2011.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video. We won't see a lot of spectacular videos of the Joplin tornado, since it was wrapped in rain and difficult to see.

Listen to my 12-minute interview on the historic April 2011 tornadoes for EarthSky.org, which aired on NPR earlier this month. I discuss how climate change might impact severe weather and tornadoes.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on The World's Deadliest Tornadoes.

My 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.


Figure 6. The Portlight relief trailer being loaded in Summerville, SC, in preparation for a journey to the April tornado disaster zone.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this spring's severe weather has brought, stop by the Red Cross website, or portlight.org blog. Portlight has been very active bringing aid to the victims of this year's tornadoes.

Jeff Masters

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Wall Cloud (thomasanthony)
Rotating wall cloud coming through Perry Kansas. That speck towards the top is a helicopter.
Wall Cloud
Gran Tara by ketchum ok. (wick918)
The one that hit Joplin Mo.
Gran Tara  by ketchum ok.
Reading, KS (wheelingrabbit)
Reading, KS Grain Silo
Reading, KS

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510. Skyepony (Mod)
Atleast what is going through OK City has weakened a bit. That cell headed east across AK still looks bad.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
Quoting Chicklit:

Would not want to chase a tornado at night.
Anyway, goodnight all. Barely a dull moment these days weatherwise.


Neither would I ! Could not get me in a car...but I do like to follow online...goodnight Chicklet and smiley dog :)
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
FYI....Tornadodude( a good WU blogger)...is now with the MIDSCAR group of Chasers.....that is a good group....so glad for him :)

Would not want to chase a tornado at night.
Anyway, goodnight all. Barely a dull moment these days weatherwise.
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Reference Post #469: Songda headed for NE Japan as CAT 4.

JapanMeteorologicalAgency
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FYI....Tornadodude( a good WU blogger)...is now with the MIDSCAR group of Chasers.....that is a good group....so glad for him :)
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I understand everyone is concerned about the Joplin tornado (as am I), but I just wrote a blog on both Invest 92L and Invest 90E. Please check it out.
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502. Skyepony (Mod)
The EF-1 tornado that tore through Central Wisconsin Sunday night was on the ground for 32 miles and nearly 40 minutes, and had winds up to 110 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

The report about the damage it left behind from the National Weather Service is as follows:

The National Weather Service in Green Bay completed a damage survey across southern Wood and Portage counties and found evidence of a tornado that struck during the evening of May 22.

The tornado entered Wood County just west of the Wisconsin River at about 6:05 pm. The tornado hit a campground just east of the river about three miles south of Nekoosa. Over 100 pine trees were snapped and uprooted on the campground, some two feet in diameter. Several camper vehicles were damaged by fallen trees. The tornado was seen by campground visitors just before 6:15 pm. The tornado continued east-northeast and snapped or uprooted hundreds of additional trees south of Wisconsin Rapids. The storm damaged at least three homes and several other outbuildings about six miles south-southeast of Wisconsin Rapids. This area experienced high-end EF1 damage with winds at least 95 to 105 mph.

The tornado continued into Portage County, mainly over farmland, where it continued to snap trees and overturn irrigation systems. About six miles south of Plover, a nearly half-mile long row of power poles were bent over. The tornado crossed I-39 at Coddington Road two miles west of Keene. The tornado grew to nearly 700 yards wide as it passed just north of Keene and damaged a farmstead. A silo was heavily damaged and barn flattened. Along the path, several more irrigation systems were overturned and hundreds of trees snapped or uprooted. This area also experienced high-end ef1 damage with winds of 100 to 110 mph. The tornado dissipated about nine miles southeast of Plover at about 6:46 pm.

Total track length: 32 miles estimated time on the ground: 605 pm - 646 pm strongest damage: Ef1...Winds near 110 mph maximum width: 700 yards average width: 200 yards

This is preliminary information and may be updated as additional information is received and analysis completed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
501. Skyepony (Mod)
USDA Reminds Producers to Apply for 2011 LDA
Manhattan, Kansas, May 20, 2011 - Adrian J. Polansky, State Executive Director of USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) in Kansas, reminds eligible ranchers and livestock producers to apply under the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) for losses incurred during the 2011 grazing season up to October 1, 2011.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
500. Skyepony (Mod)
JPL climatologist warns of potential flooding in the West
Rogue jet stream considered culprit of tornadoes, large snowpack
Posted: 05/23/2011 01:22:44 PM PDT

LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE - A Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist warned Monday that a rogue jet stream in the upper atmosphere that has been the culprit of severe weather since the fall, including Sunday's devastating tornado that destroyed much of Joplin, Mo., could soon result in severe flooding in the West.

Bill Patzert of the NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said he is "extremely anxious about late spring and early summer floods in the West, especially on the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers," which merge in the San Francisco Bay Delta.

This jet stream or powerful air current has seen unusual dips in recent months as it drags dry, cold air down from the north that collides with warm, moist air from the south. It's the source of recent "heartbreaking" tornado activity in the Midwest and South, severe storms resulting in a large snow pack in the northern tier of the country and subsequent Mississippi River flooding, Patzert said.

"We've had so much snow in the Rockies and the Sierras, and it has not begun to melt yet," Patzert said. "We might see flooding that we haven't seen in over 25 years here in California. I'm really concerned about the Bay Delta." Hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland are situated in that vicinity, and many residents have their homes built on flood plains, he said.

Read more: http://www.sgvtribune.com/ci_18122058#ixzz1NEkzF5X J
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
Quoting JJ:


Twas bryllyg, and ye slythy toves
Did gyre and gymble in ye wabe:
All mimsy were ye borogoves;
And ye mome raths outgrabe. ??
Aye!
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Quoting JJ:


Twas bryllyg, and ye slythy toves
Did gyre and gymble in ye wabe:
All mimsy were ye borogoves;
And ye mome raths outgrabe. ??


love it.
Jabberwocky

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Quoting JJ:


Twas bryllyg, and ye slythy toves
Did gyre and gymble in ye wabe:
All mimsy were ye borogoves;
And ye mome raths outgrabe. ??


LOL...good one...that would be compacted garbage, ..if I read it correctly :p
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496. Skyepony (Mod)
Chasers are after the one near OK City..in the dark!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
Water tanker trucks have arrived at Joplin Memorial Hall, bring containers to take water home with you.
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493. JJ
Quoting kimoskee:


Just give us the short version of his long explanation. :-)


Twas bryllyg, and ye slythy toves
Did gyre and gymble in ye wabe:
All mimsy were ye borogoves;
And ye mome raths outgrabe. ??
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Quoting blsealevel:




Ooooo, that's a neat visual...like it:) TY
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
Quoting Skyepony:
Hoping OK City doesn't get hit..
crosshairs entire alley
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
a href="LinkUpperMsValleyLoop" target="_blank">Link

1011 PM CDT Mon may 23 2011

... Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 1030 PM CDT for northeastern Sebastian... northwestern Franklin and eastern Crawford counties...

At 1009 PM CDT... severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Paradise to 16 miles south of Mulberry... moving southeast at 30 mph.

Storm hazards include... wind gusts to 60 mph...

.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 20 and 34.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

People outside should move to a safe shelter... preferably inside a strong building. Stay away from windows until the storm has passed.


Lat... Lon 3552 9386 3550 9388 3533 9423 3556 9408
3576 9398 3577 9381 time... Mot... loc 0311z 293deg 23kt 3557 9381 3527 9404



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488. Skyepony (Mod)
Hoping OK City doesn't get hit..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
Quoting alfabob:
90E just had some dry air which is why it looks the way it does, should start to build up convection again soon. The circulation is being driven more by external winds instead of convection/coriolis effect, so it may still strengthen even if it doesn't look that great via convection. Not so sure about 92L, the cold core isn't as deep as some of the other extra-tropical systems that moved off the east coast; but since SST are a little higher it could start having central convection. Even if it does lose the front and go sub-tropical, there's always the issue with NHC actually classifying it. Also high pressure begins to build back in soon, making it less likely to develop; or that's at least what the models are showing.

First of all, 90E looks much rougher than 92L in the way of that there is now surface low or LLC, the convection is beginning to build around 92L's Low, while the EPAC system is fading like a tropical wave(fades during duirnal minimum) 92L has a much better chance at development than 90E(shown by NHC's conclusion tonight downing the % to just 10%) 92L will be able to last until Friday then it will be to South and get eaten by shear, but until then it has 3 full days to organize and strengthen, The Peak day of intensity is around Wednesday PM or Thursday.
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you can see cool shot in the 850's dropping down pushing out the warmth and causing the storms
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
485. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
Nine Minutes.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
938 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...JOPLIN TORNADO GIVEN A PRELIMINARY HIGH END EF-4 RATING...

* DATE...22 MAY 2011
* BEGIN LOCATION...APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN
* END LOCATION...1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF DUQUESNE
* ESTIMATED BEGIN TIME...541 PM
* ESTIMATED END TIME...550 PM
* MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4
* ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...190-198 MPH
* ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 OF A MILE
* PATH LENGTH...7 MILES
* FATALITIES...116 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY
* INJURIES...400 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY
* BEGIN LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.57 W
* END LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.39 W

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS RATED THE TORNADO THAT KILLED OVER 100 PEOPLE IN AND AROUND JOPLIN AS A HIGH END EF-4 TORNADO.
BASED UPON SURVEYS COMPLETED TODAY...MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 190 AND 198 MPH. THE TORNADO HAD A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 3/4 TO ONE MILE.

THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 541 PM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTRY CLUB AND 32ND STREET. ADDITIONAL SURVEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCTED TO FURTHER DEFINE THE STARTING POINT AND INTENSITY AT THIS LOCATION.

DAMAGE BECAME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TORNADO CROSSED MAIDEN LANE...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO NEARLY ALL WINDOWS ON THREE SIDES OF ST JOHNS HOSPITAL AS WELL AS TO THE ROOF. THE TORNADO FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS IT DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND BUSINESSES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE HOSPITAL. THE HIGHEST RATED DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WAS TO A CHURCH SCHOOL THAT HAD ALL BUT A PORTION OF ITS EXTERIOR WALLS DESTROYED AS WELL AS TO A NURSING HOME. WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ESTIMATED AT 160 TO 180 MPH.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROY OVER 100 HOMES BETWEEN 32ND AND 20TH STREETS.
THREE STORY APARTMENT COMPLEXES HAD THE TOP TWO FLOORS REMOVED...
OTHER TWO STORY COMPLEXES WERE PARTIALLY LEVELED.
A BANK WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VAULT.
A DILLONS GROCERY STORE ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL DAMAGE.
LASTLY...THE EXTERIOR AND INTERIOR WALLS OF A TECHNICAL SCHOOL...A MORTAR AND REBAR REINFORCED CINDER BLOCK BUILDING...FAILED.

THE TORNADO CROSSED RANGELINE ROAD NEAR 20TH STREET. THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE WAS NOTED JUST EAST OF THIS INTERSECTION WHERE A HOME DEPOT WAS DESTROYED BY AN ESTIMATED 190 TO NEARLY 200 MPH WINDS.
IN ADDITION...THE CUMMINS BUILDING...A CONCRETE BLOCK AND HEAVY STEEL BUILDING...HAD ITS STEEL ROOF BEAMS COLLAPSE.
SPORTS ACADEMY AND THE WALMART ALSO SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF 20TH STREET DESTROYING NUMEROUS WAREHOUSE STYLE FACILITIES AND RESIDENCES THROUGH DUQUESNE ROAD.
WINDS IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO APPROACH 200 MPH.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROYING NUMEROUS HOMES BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNED SOUTHEAST TOWARD INTERSTATE 44.
SUBSEQUENT DAMAGE SURVEYS WILL BE REQUIRED TO DETERMINE THE SCOPE OF ADDITIONAL REPORTS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 71 AND INTERSTATE 44.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.


&&

$$

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Worth repeating.
I want to be a weather wienie. I'm gonna' do it.
now we got a weather cult
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
XX/INV/92L
MARK
27.25n/53.45w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
Airlines cancel flights as ash nears Europe
Plume released from Icelandic volcano forces President Obama to shorten trip to Ireland


Luck of the Irish





VOLCANIC ASH
Following the eruption of the Icelandic volcano, there will be a lot of nervous holidaymakers across the UK as the Spring bank half term holiday approaches, with fresh memories of the disruption faced in Spring last year.
Unfortunately, weather patterns do not inspire confidence.
Scottish airspace could be affected later tonight.
The main risk is then from Wednesday night onwards, as upper level winds start to drag ash southeastwards across other parts of the UK.
If wind projections stay the same Leeds Bradford, Robin Hood, Manchester and Humberside airports, amongst others, could be at risk from possible disruption towards the end of the week, depending on the concentration of the ash in the atmosphere at that time.
The chart below shows wind arrows at the 20,000 ft flight level originating from the Iceland area and travelling across parts of the UK at 7am on Thursday morning.



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Quoting Patrap:
Best keep family and NOAA Radio close by in the watch and warned areas next 24.


Helmets and Basements as well.

Inform the elderly and assist with others who may not know the threat exists.


BE a pro-active weather weenie.



The family or person you inform and educate may survive for your efforts.

Forecast Products
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid mississippi valley into the central great lakes region this afternoon and evening.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
Current Weather Watches



Worth repeating.
I want to be a weather wienie. I'm gonna' do it.
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23/2345 UTC 27.3N 53.5W ST1.5 92L -- Atlantic

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Quoting txjac:
No kidding ...It is hard to remember. My son who currently lives in Huntsville (at SHSU) is moving to Beaumont at the end of this summer...I'll be down in that area. I'll keep our fingers crossed for us ...gotta run, my boss is bothering me ...heck, I AM supposed to have nights off??


Ok. Fingers crossed too. :)
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So, summarizations on 92L? Thoughts?
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475. txjac
No kidding ...It is hard to remember. My son who currently lives in Huntsville (at SHSU) is moving to Beaumont at the end of this summer...I'll be down in that area. I'll keep our fingers crossed for us ...gotta run, my boss is bothering me ...heck, I AM supposed to have nights off??
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474. beell
Quoting Drakoen:



Ah right front exit


LOL, Drak. It's good to see you!
I'll stick to my guns. Right front exit is subsident.

Haby-Exit Regions/Jet Streaks
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15339

Quoting beell:
Also known as Left Front Quadrant (LFQ)/Right Rear Quadrant (RRQ)

Photobucket


Ah right front exit
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Quoting txjac:
At home ...I agree, please be kind. We need a good soaker ...so long, slow, gentle rain so the ground can soak it up. I cant believe how dry it is around here. I'm in Houston ...where are you at?


Down I-10E from you in Orange Co. on the LA border. Beaumont area. Yes a slow soaking rain would be nice. We tend to flood fast like y'all do when we get too much at once. And we seem to get that a lot. At least if I remember correctly? Been awhile. Lol.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It also has 30 MPH now, had 25 MPH. Getting stronger, also has a surface low... This Invest has the best shot to become Arlene than the last 2...


I agree.
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468. txjac
At home ...I agree, please be kind. We need a good soaker ...so long, slow, gentle rain so the ground can soak it up. I cant believe how dry it is around here. I'm in Houston ...where are you at?
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Quoting kimoskee:


Enjoy! :-D

I will certainly try! Thanks.

You too!
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466. mbjjm
A very scary day shaping up tommorrow for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska and Missouri as dozens of tornadoes are likely across these areas.
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Quoting txjac:


look at post 445 ...all that beautiful rain that isnt coming our way ...


Yeah, I was just reading this.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THIS
GO ROUND. WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED AND RAIN-FREE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN OUR
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

I hope whatever does give us some rain is going to be kind to us. Some scary stuff out there lately. Maybe the thing in the Pacific will move some moisture our way. I can't find any models on it though.
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Quoting pottery:

Nice!
Long weekend here too! (Indian Arrival Day)
Will follow your very good example.


Enjoy! :-D
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ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 70W CONTINUE TO SUPPORTS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N54W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS 1009 MB...CENTERED NEAR 28N55W. FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO FADE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PAIRED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 39W-53W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.
Its Detaching from the front(losing it's frontal characteristics)
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Quoting Skyepony:
Most recent ASCAT is mostly a miss, yet shows some frontal attachment.
The TWD from 8pm states that it's frontal characteristics are fading quickly, and it will become a trough split which will help get it attention from the NHC. So with this occuring the NHC should bump the percentage up to 30% tomorrow...
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92L looks to me baroclinic and needs to shed that front that's attached in order for any subtropical develop to occur. Though it has a better chance than 91L did.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.