PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 410 - 360

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting Patrap:
tyvm..


Look familiar


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting RevElvis:
Hi all - been a member for over five years, have lurked, but never posted. Thought this was an interesting enough story to break the pattern.

"Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Before M9 Earthquake"

Link
come on in, the water's fine! I am a reformed lurker myself. Interesting link. Since some of those images are over thousands of feet of water I am skeptical that escaping radon could cause enough rapid heating to be detected. I wonder what the water temps did in those areas.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm at 16-8-4, very similar to 2008.

I'd agree with those numbers

my range is

14-18
7-10
3-5

so those numbers fall right in the middle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
I was doing a lot of Mack-O and Aurora watching,,not far from your Bivouac if mem serves me well.

LoL


About one mile.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
tyvm..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
If the PDO and the MJO,bump into the MDO and the PLO,will there be a War?

Bueller?

anyone?




That's the reason for the apocalypse predictions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#401


..interesting,,thanx for da linkie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Probably gave you Pompeii flash-backs.;)


I was too busy telling Pliny what to write down. Poor guy was rowing and writing at the same time.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Hi all - been a member for over five years, have lurked, but never posted. Thought this was an interesting enough story to break the pattern.

"Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Before M9 Earthquake"

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the PDO and the MJO,bump into the MDO and the PLO,will there be a War?

Bueller?

anyone?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
And Dora hit us in 1964.

ok, ix-nay on the 64-ay.


Dora started way out there. Were you alive way back in 1964?

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Well, a lot of those years were before the multi-decadal oscillation started the upward trend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was doing a lot of Mack-O and Aurora watching,,not far from your Bivouac if mem serves me well.

LoL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Can't believe that was 31 years ago.
Probably gave you Pompeii flash-backs.;)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting TomTaylor:
oh howdy Grothar! been a long time


Hey, Tom T. Glad to be back.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting Patrap:
Remember it well, datz dee day I signed my USMC contract.


And what were you doing 4 years later? LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm at 16-8-4, very similar to 2008.
This is about where I am. I think we may see one more hurricane / majors: to wit, 16 - 9 - 5. If we were heading back to a la nina-type ENSO situation, I might go for more named storms. But warm-side neutral IMO doesn't necessarily lend itself to protracted season length...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
oh howdy Grothar! been a long time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember it well, datz dee day I signed my USMC contract.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
31 years ago Doom came in with a bang.



Can't believe that was 31 years ago.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
The Colorado forecast is using 1956, 1961, 1989, 2009, and 2008 as analog years for 2011.



Pretty quiet years except for one





Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting Patrap:
31 years ago Doom came in with a bang.

folks up this way remember it well.:(
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Happy Upcoming Hurricane Season, Everyone. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Colorado forecast is using 1956, 1961, 1989, 2009, and 2008 as analog years for 2011.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:


2012 is supposta be an analogous year.


That is a comforting thought.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
And Dora hit us in 1964.

ok, ix-nay on the 64-ay.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25774
31 years ago Doom came in with a bang.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think they did, I know that 2008 and I think 1964 are among them.


Ooh, Cleo hit us in 1964.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
@ Peggy, the quote button might actually be of use from time to time.... u may have to press twice...

@ Everybody, still no rain here... though it is prolly drenching North Eleuthera right now...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
Quoting Grothar:


Are we expecting an unusual amount of mischief? I am going with 18-10-6.


2012 is supposta be an analogous year.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25774
Quoting DestinJeff:


18 "mischiefs"

10 "tropical mischief"s

6 "apocalyptic mischief"


They're all apocalyptic mischief.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Have they determined an analagous year for 2011 yet?


I think they did, I know that 2008 and I think 1964 are among them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm at 16-8-4, very similar to 2008.


Have they determined an analogous year for 2011 yet?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting Levi32:


I'm at 15 to 16 named, 9 hurricanes, 4 major.


Keeping it on the low side, eh? Think the AO will have any positive affect on the winds in the Atlantic?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Tropics! Wonder what they will announce. It seems they added some new long term forecast models this year. Should be interesting to see what will change.
i heard somewhere they use a bigger dart board i think it was what i heard or maybe they mean a bigger dart not sure really guess we see tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Are we expecting an unusual amount of mischief? I am going with 18-10-6.


I'm at 16-8-4, very similar to 2008.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes, it will be tommorow.Here is the announcement.


Link


Thanks Tropics! Wonder what they will announce. It seems they added some new long term forecast models this year. Should be interesting to see what will change.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting Grothar:


If I lasted this long, not much will bother me.


Bonehaid! he's talking about the kitteh, not you. Remember his kitteh passed away last year?

oh the details of it all are too depressing, wish now I hadn't even brought it up.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25774
dont believe anything a lion says

'zurp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Are we expecting an unusual amount of mischief? I am going with 18-10-6.


I'm at 15 to 16 named, 9 hurricanes, 4 major.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
I got my own zombie kit.

Chainsaw.

so the prediction comes out tomorrow? I got confused and thought they moved back the apocolypse date.

Or is that the apocolypse?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25774
Quoting DestinJeff:


clearly.

I remain hopeful that, should he survive the impending Rapture, he will return to the blog for The Season.


If I lasted this long, not much will bother me.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
CDC Warns Public to Prepare for 'Zombie Apocalypse'

Link
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


OMG !! Hip, Hip, Hooray....THANK GOODNESS you are finally back.....We have been worrying and "fretting" about you. I know peeps are tired of my whining...So dont let this happen again !! BTW, some of the good ole bloggers are returning....and the season is nigh....All's right in wunderworld again...:)


Don't frett none! Sorry I couldn't get on, but I was a little busy for a bit.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467
Quoting Levi32:


Tomorrow, 11:30am EDT I believe.


Are we expecting an unusual amount of mischief? I am going with 18-10-6.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25467

Viewing: 410 - 360

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
75 °F
Mostly Cloudy