PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2011

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Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

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Wisdom from Oswald Chambers

Crises reveal character. When we are put to the test the hidden resources of our character are revealed exactly. Disciples Indeed, 393 R
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Master Guitar Man

One of my true inspirations.

Great imagery with the video...and totally relevant to what's "going on"
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WTI Crude Oil
$100.52 ▲3.61
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Quoting JNCali:
So Cal is certainly overdue for at least a TS, anyone out there think the E Pac will be warm enough later this summer to get some wind and rain to go along with the imminent shake??


Hi JN... It's virtually unthinkable.

The last tropical system to actually make landfall as a tropical system was TD Norman in 1978. I remember it. I was 6 years old and it's the only time I remember seeing rain going down my street instead of landing on it.

I should note that also Hurricane Nora of 1997 held together as a tropical storm into the Deserts of Southern California and Arizona (between the Imperial Valley and Yuma) and caused an amazing amount of rainfall.

View the full list of impacts here:
California Hurricanes

Off the coast of California, we have a large area of cold water generated by a combination of upwelling and the Alaska current. A tropical system has to form into a powerful hurricane, move to just the right point off of Baja and get picked up by a fast moving trough to make it here before it dissipates.

On the other hand, stranger things have happened. I'm working on a short story about a future California after the cold water conveyor is stopped and our ocean temperatures approach those of Florida. Talk about climate change...
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Quoting KeysieLife:
For Keeper

"


Master Guitar Man (My fav. - Tender Surrender performance)
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Quoting Jax82:
I tell you what, those on the space shuttle and space station are going to have a great viewing of the end of the world Saturday. Hope they brought enough popcorn. :-)

That reminds me of Armageddon:

"Please Get Off The Nuclear Warhead"
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
49. 7544
not a big fan for predictions remember it only takes one stay safe all
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43-
killing me man
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So Cal is certainly overdue for at least a TS, anyone out there think the E Pac will be warm enough later this summer to get some wind and rain to go along with the imminent shake??
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Quoting DestinJeff:


or worse yet, rapturecussions.


or worse..percussions!!
Link

Wats up Jeff!!
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The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16


Can't find anything on their website about their 2008 prediction. There were sixteen named storms formed, including eight that became hurricanes and five that became major hurricanes.

Anybody know what they predicted that year?
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This is off topic but has anyone heard from Grother? I hope's ok. I miss his posts.
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It really doesnt matter how many form. We could have a near record amount miss us like last year or have the first one form in late August and it wipes out half of S. Florida.
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Quoting pottery:

Buy me a Porsche while you're at it...


Surely, you can ask for a better maker than that, Pottery! ;)

16 looks sort of close to the possible storm numbers for this year. Maybe an 'average' 95-present AMO+ season in terms of numbers.

Quoting aspectre:
9 aquak9 "there's not a "peggy" this year. hmm...is there?"

Gotta use the next few lists after running out of Greek letters.
Ain't much point in having an Apocalypse without tossing in lots and lots of hurricanes.


After Greek letters, we'll be on Egyptian hieroglyphics, surely.
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Your safe Peggy,at the call center in Russia.From hurricanes that is,you do have to worry about heat waves and famines though!
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9 aquak9 "there's not a "peggy" this year. hmm...is there?"

Gotta use the next few lists after running out of Greek letters.
Ain't much point in having an Apocalypse without tossing in lots and lots of hurricanes.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting aquak9:


you didn't ask for a pic of Dolly when we added her...why you so picky about Peggy?

I have Matured since then.
I am more choosy these days.
And anyway, Dolly conjured up certain images....
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Quoting twincomanche:
Is there anyone amateur or professional with over a fifty percent prediction accuracy for a five or ten year period or is this all just dart board stuff?

Dont diss the dart-board, man.
There could be Repercussions....
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Quoting pottery:

I would need to see a picture of Peg, before I add her to my list...


you didn't ask for a pic of Dolly when we added her...why you so picky about Peggy?
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A spread of twelve to twenty??? 'bout like playing darts with hand grenades.
Sure, you'll hit the board. But who cares?

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Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Maybe I could take up a petition. A write-in vote to get Peggy on the list.

I would need to see a picture of Peg, before I add her to my list...
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"My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends"
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
Quoting NEwxguy:
Does any of it really matter,since it is all over as of Saturday anyway.I for one will go out and max my credit cards,knowing I won't have to pay it back.

Buy me a Porsche while you're at it...
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Be sure to make a in kind donation to Portlight if maxing out.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129441
Does any of it really matter,since it is all over as of Saturday anyway.I for one will go out and max my credit cards,knowing I won't have to pay it back.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


No Peggy through at least 2015.
Actually not until past 2016.
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Thanks for the update Doc I say prediction smiction until a cane is bearing down on your neck of the woods does it really matter? with any luck at all we will have another active fish storm year.....weather it's 9 or 19 storms bring on the rainnnnnn SE Fla is parched
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The last piece you would think is 'Hurricane'. I don't know...have you ever smelled rotting potatoes?

don't wanna talk about the kewns..
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
Quoting Jax82:
I get the feeling we wont be spared a landfalling hurricane this season. It will be interesting for sure considering the trends already for devastating weather events in the US this year. Snowstorms, Tornado outbreaks, record river flooding, drought. The last piece you would think is 'Hurricane'.

I have a feeling you are right. Someone is going to get hit - I just hope it is a minor hurricane, and death/destruction/injury are largely avoided as much as possible.

Also, you forgot "rapture", "doom", and "Raccoon invasions".
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
.
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Quoting Jax82:
I get the feeling we wont be spared a landfalling hurricane this season. It will be interesting for sure considering the trends already for devastating weather events in the US this year. Snowstorms, Tornado outbreaks, record river flooding, drought. The last piece you would think is 'Hurricane'.


And last but not least...the megaquake
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Thank you Dr Masters. That post marks the symbolic start to the Seasonal Predictions in the Comment Section Season.

My research indicates this season will be deemed a bust by June 12th at the latest.

Summer well.

The 2011 Hurricane Season is a bust! Just two dunky invests this year! We will only get 1 or two TS this year!
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting aquak9:
there's not a "peggy" this year.

uhmm...is there?


No Peggy through at least 2015.
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Real early but ... is that something coming off the African coast this morning?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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