PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2011

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Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I love it, everyone knows the earth is only 13,000 years old. Plus, all their math makes total sense.

I love the part where they do some fancy math on the years since Noah. 4990 BC - 2011 AD = 7001 years... but since you are going from old testament to new testament, one year doesn't count, since our whole scam depends on 7000 years. Oh, and don't mind the contradictory evidence throughout this pamphlet.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


nice pottery, make us have all the tea parties up here in the states. Thats generous of you. Do you accept pets?

This has put me in a bit of a Sticky Situation.
Please keep in mind that I'm not operating an Ark here...
And I have 2 dogs, a cat, 9 chickens and some Tilapia in a pond.
So this gives us a good basic starting point for the ReGeneration of all Life, whether hairy, feathered or scaled.
So. Sorry. No more pets.
Life is hard, you know?
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We're having a Rapture Party Saturday out here on Folly Beach...every single one of you is welcome...even Pottery...there will be food and booze...right up to the very end...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



It's really pathetic, the corrupted business religion has become. Sure there are a few honest ones out there but, far and few between.


Right they are the "The worlds going to end, so send us tons of donations and we will help you be saved." crowd. They are pathetic.
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But, I firmly believe this is NOT what the good lord had in mind.

Next topic...
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting sunlinepr:

Wow! Guyana is getting rained on! Is that the tropical wave you guys been talking about that could interact with a trough once it gets into the Caribbean?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


nice pottery, make us have all the tea parties up here in the states. Thats generous of you. Do you accept pets?


do you accept raccoons?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25782
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


exactly they even do it in the same sentence.
"For yet seven days, and I will cause it to rain upon the earth forty days and forty nights;"

they count the seven days as thousands of years, yet the forty days is really days... youd have to be hit by a brick to believe this...



It's really pathetic, the corrupted business religion has become. Sure there are a few honest ones out there but, far and few between.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting pottery:
Now hear this.
I have spent several moments analysing the relevant passages in The Book that pertain to the End.
Throughout the thing, The Book talks about The World coming to a nasty conclusion.
But upon careful scrutiny, I realise that 'The World' means only to THE FIRST WORLD.

Here in The Third World, we seem to be Immune to the Impending Rapture (unless it is cocktail hour of course).

So, here's the deal-
Send ALL your possessions & women, (not children or men or anyone named Sarah), down here for safe-keeping.
They'll be fine, and well cared for.

I am sure you will all appreciate this altruistic outpouring of personal inconvenience I am making here.
But what are friends for??


your generosity is inspiring...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting pottery:

Well, people named Sarah seem intent on hosting Tea Parties all over the place.
This will get in the way of our Carnival celebrations.
We NEVER drink Tea during Carnival.


nice pottery, make us have all the tea parties up here in the states. Thats generous of you. Do you accept pets?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Why no one named sarah?! hahaha

Well, people named Sarah seem intent on hosting Tea Parties all over the place.
This will get in the way of our Carnival celebrations.
We NEVER drink Tea during Carnival.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Now hear this.
I have spent several moments analysing the relevant passages in The Book that pertain to the End.
Throughout the thing, The Book talks about The World coming to a nasty conclusion.
But upon careful scrutiny, I realise that 'The World' means only to THE FIRST WORLD.

Here in The Third World, we seem to be Immune to the Impending Rapture (unless it is cocktail hour of course).

So, here's the deal-
Send ALL your possessions & women, (not children or men or anyone named Sarah), down here for safe-keeping.
They'll be fine, and well cared for.

I am sure you will all appreciate this altruistic outpouring of personal inconvenience I am making here.
But what are friends for??


Why no one named sarah?! hahaha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now hear this.
I have spent several moments analysing the relevant passages in The Book that pertain to the End.
Throughout the thing, The Book talks about The World coming to a nasty conclusion.
But upon careful scrutiny, I realise that 'The World' means only to THE FIRST WORLD.

Here in The Third World, we seem to be Immune to the Impending Rapture (unless it is cocktail hour of course).

So, here's the deal-
Send ALL your possessions & women, (not children or men or anyone named Sarah), down here for safe-keeping.
They'll be fine, and well cared for.

I am sure you will all appreciate this altruistic outpouring of personal inconvenience I am making here.
But what are friends for??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12-20 storms? So, if there are 10 named storms or 22, we'll say the statistical prediction is close? I am not understanding why an 8 storm spread is accepted. It seems to be hedging their bets that they'll be "accurate".

At least the experimental MDR SST comparison gives a distinct number: 19.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


And to them it was given that they should not kill them, but that they should be tormented five months: and their torment was as the torment of a scorpion, when he striketh a man. Revelation 9:5


Since it's known that 1 day is 1000 in Gods world, at least to this twit, wouldn't 5 months be 150,000 years?


exactly they even do it in the same sentence.
"For yet seven days, and I will cause it to rain upon the earth forty days and forty nights;"

they count the seven days as thousands of years, yet the forty days is really days... youd have to be hit by a brick to believe this...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
You send some good Stuff KEEPER. Keep up the good work. 
A viewer.
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Quoting jeffs713:
5 bucks says the website will be down Sunday...


On sunday, they will be looking for 5,000 members to donate $5 bucks, due to the extra time given, before DOOM
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May 21, 2011 from Family Radio on Vimeo.
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interesting tornado like feature imbedded in the eyewall,that pic alway had me wondering what the heck it is???
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
It really is happening on Saturday...
Look this website says so.
Link


And to them it was given that they should not kill them, but that they should be tormented five months: and their torment was as the torment of a scorpion, when he striketh a man. Revelation 9:5


Since it's known that 1 day is 1000 in Gods world, at least to this twit, wouldn't 5 months be 150,000 years?
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
The best part is, the world ends Saturday, yet they want our donations more than ever... seems counterproductive.
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Quoting presslord:
It MUST be true!!!!! 'cause I read it on the internet...
Yep, and you also read this--

"Pottery is 22 years old"
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I love it, everyone knows the earth is only 13,000 years old. Plus, all their math makes total sense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Don't look at that website today, Check it out on Sunday to read their excuses.... (if they do so)
5 bucks says the website will be down Sunday...
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
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It MUST be true!!!!! 'cause I read it on the internet...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
It really is happening on Saturday...
Look this website says so.
Link

All of this stuff we say is completely true and accurate, BECAUSE WE SAY SO!
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
It really is happening on Saturday...
Look this website says so.
Link


Don't look at that website today, Check it out on Sunday to read their excuses.... (if they do so)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Wave currently on the coast of Venezuela, is coming this way and we should begin to get some rains out of that later tonight.

The first wave last year passed on May 16th.
It rained on and off for that week, and on the 25th we got 5.5" of rain!
Total rainfall for May 2010 was 9.25", which was way above average.
10 year av. for May is 4.5"
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Quoting Waltanater:
So how many years did they analyze to come up with this new experimental forecast based on the difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans? How do they know it is not just a coincidence? Hope they have more than a couple year's worth of data to make that assumption. Seems kinda hoaky to me.

Oh, you know those scientists, always coming up with stuff on the spur of the moment, never really giving much thought to things like baseline length, coincidental data, and the like. ;-)

Seriously, while no scientist in infallible, when it comes to climate science, Mann is as good as it gets. But even saying that, the prediction's web page does clearly state that it's experimental. It will be very interesting to see if there's any validity to that experiment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It really is happening on Saturday...
Look this website says so.
Link
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"...back to back....sacroiliac..."
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting DestinJeff:
Local forecast for Saturday evening, from weather.com and intellicast:


Finally! Sheesh, what took you so long?!
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Quoting presslord:
Link


Nice! Howdy, Press. :)
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Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting Waltanater:
So how many years did they analyze to come up with this new experimental forecast based on the difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans? How do they know it is not just a coincidence? Hope they have more than a couple year's worth of data to make that assumption. Seems kinda hoaky to me.

Hindcasts are great. If you develop a hypothetical theory, you can test that theory using data from previous years. For example, if I want to say that in years that SE TX has a drought, we get a tropical system making landfall, I can look back over 15-20 years, and see how often it happens.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875

Nice to see the good Doc's blog so cordial.

Good afternoon, folks.

I'm sorry I missed the season, as it's already been declared dead. Just my luck. hehehehe :)
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So how many years did they analyze to come up with this new experimental forecast based on the difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans? How do they know it is not just a coincidence? Hope they have more than a couple year's worth of data to make that assumption. Seems kinda hoaky to me.
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Quoting KeysieLife:

One of my true inspirations.

Great imagery with the video...and totally relevant to what's "going on"


For me Hendrix, then Vai... then other masters....
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Quoting DestinJeff:


hey srada ... nice reference. i still have the same set, don't you worry. but i may try a new instrument, too.


better do it before saturday, after that its a wrap..LOL!
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Sheesh, what's up with the anti-thrillseeker bias in here? What about those who don't WANT to stay safe? Nobody ever thinks of the thrillseekers... :P
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Wisdom from Oswald Chambers

Crises reveal character. When we are put to the test the hidden resources of our character are revealed exactly. Disciples Indeed, 393 R
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.