PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2011

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Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

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At least we won't have to worry about global warming anymore... Or will we?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

So May 21 is when a bunch of people who preach a lot disappear, while the rest of us go on like nothing happened for 5 months?

Exactly!! It really may not be soo bad...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
I would like to see there financial statement. I bet my mother in law has sent them a check.OMG


Look at the FAQs on that website... entirely too funny


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Quoting presslord:
OK...here's how it's gonna work...the believers will vanish Saturday...the rest of us will be 'left behind' to endure unspeakable disasters, wars, pestilence and venereal disease for five months...on October 21 we will then be cast into Hell to burn for all eternity....Got it?!?!

So May 21 is when a bunch of people who preach a lot disappear, while the rest of us go on like nothing happened for 5 months?
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I'm just curious if these religous doomsday believers are going to all commit suicide on Sunday like the "Heaven's Gate" group did in California in the late 90's?
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Quoting Patrap:
I plan on hopping on Sunday (usually don't on the weekends), just to witness the amusement.

I have about 4=6 good comebacks for that line Jeff,,but my year plus 43 days "no bann" streak would be in serious jeopardy if I opined.

I'm disappointed... I left that one open on purpose...
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OK...here's how it's gonna work...the believers will vanish Saturday...the rest of us will be 'left behind' to endure unspeakable disasters, wars, pestilence and venereal disease for five months...on October 21 we will then be cast into Hell to burn for all eternity....Got it?!?!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting cmahan:


These folks would be happy to look after your pets for you, for a small up-front fee.

Look at the FAQs on that website... entirely too funny.

"Q: How can your rescuers possibly pay for my pet's care for only $135.00?
A: The $135.00 fee for one pet is not for the cost of their care. It is to compensate the rescuers for their travel, cover website expenses, and provide a profit margin."

A 100% profit margin, that is...
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I plan on hopping on Sunday (usually don't on the weekends), just to witness the amusement.

I have about 4=6 good comebacks for that line Jeff,,but my year plus 43 days "no bann" streak would be in serious jeopardy if I opined.
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I'm not seeing any convective buildup going on for Saturday, it's a damn bust I tell ya.
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Quoting aquak9:
Poor Dr. Masters.

There's no way this blog will be right until after Saturday or Sunday.
I plan on hopping on Sunday (usually don't on the weekends), just to witness the amusement.

(and IMO, Dr. Masters is probably getting a hearty laugh out of this, too - or at least some amusement)
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


nice pottery, make us have all the tea parties up here in the states. Thats generous of you. Do you accept pets?


These folks would be happy to look after your pets for you, for a small up-front fee.
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Poor Dr. Masters.

There's no way this blog will be right until after Saturday or Sunday.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25729
I guess "Toxic Avenger" was taken?


Joe Bastardi from weatherbell.com
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Anyway.
Everyone knows that Foolish People laugh and make snide comments when they are faced with things that are Beyond Their Understanding.
Good thing we dont do that around here.

I am heading for the Hills, and will be back on Friday to say my Farewells...

heheheheh
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Quoting DestinJeff:
DOOM:CON does not go to "Black: Outright Panic" unless the Pilot advises that we are also out of coffee.


Dude... If the corner store is gone, that means it doesn't have coffee. And if the corner store is gone, chances are that Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts are gone too, which means....


GAAAAAAAAH!!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


we don't hate you because you're beautiful, but we do wish you had a much better understanding of what the word means.


you really know how to hurt a girl...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting DestinJeff:
DOOM:CON does not go to "Black: Outright Panic" unless the Pilot advises that we are also out of coffee.


or if the pilot and the co-pilot both had the fish...
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Quoting SQUAWK:

Which habit? The drinking one or the annoying one??? ;P
BOTH!!

Quoting DestinJeff:


pottery is a nun?

Lets not go there....
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Quoting pottery:

You guys have not thought this out, have you?
There will be no corner store. Even the corner is gone.
Your'e DOOOOMED.


Photobucket
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Quoting jeffs713:

And in other news, sales of "Eye Bleach" has hit record levels today...


Don't hate me because I'm beautiful...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting pottery:

Maybe I'll bring my Habit along.
yukyukyuk!

Which habit? The drinking one or the annoying one??? ;P
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Quoting presslord:


Great!!!! And I can wear my dress!!!!

And in other news, sales of "Eye Bleach" has hit record levels today...
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Quoting presslord:


Bert's Market on Folly Beach NEVER closes....ever...



kinda like da French Quarter here,,doom comes and goes but da Cats Meow never closes either
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Quoting pottery:

You guys have not thought this out, have you?
There will be no corner store. Even the corner is gone.
Your'e DOOOOMED.

If there is no corner store.. um...

*contacts DOOM:CON, and requests an urgent upgrade to code black*
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Quoting pottery:

You guys have not thought this out, have you?
There will be no corner store. Even the corner is gone.
Your'e DOOOOMED.


Bert's Market on Folly Beach NEVER closes....ever...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting presslord:
We're having a Rapture Party Saturday out here on Folly Beach...every single one of you is welcome...even Pottery...there will be food and booze...right up to the very end...

You buying????
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Quoting aquak9:


(shakes finger) oh no you DINT

I did, didn't I? I wasn't even thinking of that when I wrote it (I was trying to get them off your hands, actually), but its quite amusing now that I'm looking back...
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Quoting jeffs713:

Aren't they one and the same? When booze and food runs out, all he** breaks loose (until someone goes to the corner store and gets more).

You guys have not thought this out, have you?
There will be no corner store. Even the corner is gone.
Your'e DOOOOMED.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting iahishome:


On the other hand, stranger things have happened. I'm working on a short story about a future California after the cold water conveyor is stopped and our ocean temperatures approach those of Florida. Talk about climate change...

Thanks for the Input IA!
Keep me posted on the short story. I've been in SoCal since the 60's and would love to have some warmer water to swim in at the beach.. Now if the Pacific current changes do you  think the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic would follow suit??
That would be a mess....
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PSU e-WALL : THE ELECTRONIC MAP WALL

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Quoting jeffs713:

He has to accept Recooon and Nucoon, since you were feeding them, and they are therefore your pets.


(shakes finger) oh no you DINT

The coons can go- I'll stay back
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25729
Quoting presslord:


Great!!!! And I can wear my dress!!!!


Welp that officially ends my visiting plans.
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Quoting pottery:

Maybe I'll bring my Habit along.
yukyukyuk!


Great!!!! And I can wear my dress!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting presslord:


well...you make a good point....as there will be a couple of priests and nuns in attendance, the booze may go pretty fast...

Maybe I'll bring my Habit along.
yukyukyuk!
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What happens when the NAO is either positive or negative?
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Quoting CalebDancemastah:

Wow! Guyana is getting rained on! Is that the tropical wave you guys been talking about that could interact with a trough once it gets into the Caribbean?

Yeah, thats the one I believe.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, you know those scientists, always coming up with stuff on the spur of the moment, never really giving much thought to things like baseline length, coincidental data, and the like. ;-)

Seriously, while no scientist in infallible, when it comes to climate science, Mann is as good as it gets. But even saying that, the prediction's web page does clearly state that it's experimental. It will be very interesting to see if there's any validity to that experiment.


Thanks Neapolitan! Should be an interesting season.
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Quoting pottery:

The "end" end?
Or the end of the booze and food?
This is important you know!

Aren't they one and the same? When booze and food runs out, all he** breaks loose (until someone goes to the corner store and gets more).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

The "end" end?
Or the end of the booze and food?
This is important you know!


well...you make a good point....as there will be a couple of priests and nuns in attendance, the booze may go pretty fast...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Weather,Theology, & Scientology ?


Phascinating,..


yup, wunderground.com Main Blog.

Word is the Mayans are Huge Lurker's

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Quoting aquak9:


do you accept raccoons?

He has to accept Recooon and Nucoon, since you were feeding them, and they are therefore your pets.
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Being a former student I respect Penn State's analysis of this upcoming hurricane season, 12-20 named storms with La Nina fading...If this ends up being a neutral year I wonder if we will be in for an active season, by the way we are using the same names as 2005...
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Quoting presslord:
We're having a Rapture Party Saturday out here on Folly Beach...every single one of you is welcome...even Pottery...there will be food and booze...right up to the very end...

The "end" end?
Or the end of the booze and food?
This is important you know!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I love it, everyone knows the earth is only 13,000 years old. Plus, all their math makes total sense.

I love the part where they do some fancy math on the years since Noah. 4990 BC - 2011 AD = 7001 years... but since you are going from old testament to new testament, one year doesn't count, since our whole scam depends on 7000 years. Oh, and don't mind the contradictory evidence throughout this pamphlet.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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