PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2011

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Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

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203. Is there a short form of that? Or a Reader's Digest version?
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Thank you developers for da Minus button.

LoL

..for when a link wont do
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Quoting presslord:
Proof?!?!?! You want proof?!?!?!?! Here's your proof!!!!!!!!!!
Link


I say meteor...two reasons, one explanation.

Reason 1: No one "heard" anything because it sounded like a gun shot...too normal of a sound so no one paid attention.

Reason 2: No one "found" anything because there was a cool rock laying there and it was stolen immediately to sell for another cool "rock"

Explanation: IT'S NEW YORK!
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31 years ago today,,was a BIG BADA BOOM!!

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
The first tropical wave of the season is now advancing into Guyana, and will likely bring showers/thunderstorms to Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
U guys r killin me!!! ... this is more amusing than tv any day of the week :))
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Quoting kmanislander:
You never know when a lawyer may be watching :-)


or a cockroach
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

No offense to any lawyers in here, but I thought they were one and the same...

(sorry! I had to!)


Well, to be honest, there are some subtle differences.

Some cockroaches can fly on their own, while the lawyers own Lear jets.
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For asbestos Litigation,,I chose Baron & Budd.

U betcha.
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Quoting presslord:
Proof?!?!?! You want proof?!?!?!?! Here's your proof!!!!!!!!!!
Link


Because some pranksters dug a hole? haha
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Quoting presslord:
Proof?!?!?! You want proof?!?!?!?! Here's your proof!!!!!!!!!!
Link

ALIENS!
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VIDEO: Mississippi River flooding update: Port reopened at Natchez; additional bay opened at Morganza

Posted: Wednesday, May 18, 2011, 1:09 PM
Lynette Johnson, The Times-Picayune By Lynette Johnson, The Times-Picayune The Times-Picayune
Follow

The Times-Picayune's John Pope gives the latest news about the reopening of the port at Natchez, Mississippi, after it was closed due to reports of sand erosion.
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You never know when a lawyer may be watching :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15776
Proof?!?!?! You want proof?!?!?!?! Here's your proof!!!!!!!!!!
Link
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www.nola.com/rivercam
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Quoting hcubed:


I thought the only thing that would survive was cockroaches.

Or lawyers, I can't remember which...

No offense to any lawyers in here, but I thought they were one and the same...

(sorry! I had to!)
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Quoting hcubed:


I thought the only thing that would survive was cockroaches.

Or lawyers, I can't remember which...


6 of one, half a dozen of the other.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Ohhhhhhh my God, it's a super nova burst, heading towards earth faster than the speed of light.
NASA must have read a prophecy about it, since its moving faster than the speed of light...

either that, or NASA has some new technology they aren't telling anyone about...
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Hale Bopp modified entry from years back here
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Quoting aquak9:
Who will inherit the earth?
A. The believers
b. The non-believers
3. The data is flawed
IV. Raccoons


I thought the only thing that would survive was cockroaches.

Or lawyers, I can't remember which...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Who will inherit the earth?
A. The believers
b. The non-believers
3. The data is flawed
IV. Raccoons

7)
A.
(3.2) People of Walmart
.......(is the correct answer)
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Tornados??! we never have those, must be a sign.


Yep! It's another sign.....

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

MDC035-041-181930-
/O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110518T1930Z/
QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
250 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
TALBOT AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTIES...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED BETWEEN ST. MICHAELS
AND EASTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ST. MICHAELS AND 7 MILES EAST OF TALBOT BY 255 PM EDT...
COPPERVILLE BY 300 PM EDT...
QUEENSTOWN...GRASONVILLE...7 MILES EAST OF CHESTER AND 9 MILES EAST
OF STEVENSVILLE SOUTH BY 320 PM EDT...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jax82:


That hale-bopp? I got a similar pic.


Yeppar's and the water was in Bayou Manchac West of NOLA as the Bonnet Carre was opened that year,which allowed the reflection shot.
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According to their calculations....it should be here....wait a minute....Saturday?!
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Puerto rico radar station is saying that theres a 100% Hail on 1 thunderstorms on the center of the island.Can someone confirm?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1566
179. Jax82
Quoting Patrap:




patrap Images 97



No way,,ya need a nice Bright Comet in the Sky for that..

Everyone knows dat ?

I thought.


That hale-bopp? I got a similar pic.
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Quoting SQUAWK:
I probably shouldn't do this but, here goes:

IN OTHER NEWS:

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER WESTERN
HARFORD COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEL AIR...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORRISVILLE...
MARYLAND LINE...

Tornados??! we never have those, must be a sign.
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Ohhhhhhh my God, it's a super nova burst, heading towards earth faster than the speed of light.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
they SHOULD be concernced
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
I probably shouldn't do this but, here goes:

IN OTHER NEWS:

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER WESTERN
HARFORD COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEL AIR...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORRISVILLE...
MARYLAND LINE...
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concernced?

LoL


FireFox does have a auto spell checker.

NASA uses it in all their browsers too.
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NASA is puzzled and concernced
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Quoting TXMegaWatt:
I'm just curious if these religous doomsday believers are going to all commit suicide on Sunday like the "Heaven's Gate" group did in California in the late 90's?




patrap Images 97



No way,,ya need a nice Bright Comet in the Sky for that..

Everyone knows dat ?

I thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KeysieLife:

Let's just say if things are A LOT quieter on Sunday and you notice an increase in locusts...you may have missed the cut. =)

I have sprays to get rid of locusts from my garden, so I'm good. (locusts = related to grasshoppers)
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Wait, NASA is reporting an oject heading for earth right now at an outrageous speed, they're prepping to move the shuttle outt of the way because of this.
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Quoting pottery:

You guys have not thought this out, have you?
There will be no corner store. Even the corner is gone.
Your'e DOOOOMED.


And I suppose nobody has thought about who's gonna be the designated driver, have they?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Who will inherit the earth?
A. The believers
b. The non-believers
3. The data is flawed
IV. Raccoons

IV for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

So May 21 is when a bunch of people who preach a lot disappear, while the rest of us go on like nothing happened for 5 months?

Let's just say if things are A LOT quieter on Sunday and you notice an increase in locusts...you may have missed the cut. =)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
Who will inherit the earth?
A. The believers
b. The non-believers
3. The data is flawed
IV. Raccoons
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At least we won't have to worry about global warming anymore... Or will we?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.