PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2011

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Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:


This will help with Ghost Adventurers, Zak will have a field day chasing spirits and taunting them like hell.


Checking Retro Chanel.... The invisible man...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
Quoting sunlinepr:
Rasta, ya basta
Nice!
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Another round of rain for PR



Whats this rain you speak of. It hasn't rained in ages in my part of the UK. I'd kill for some.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Yeah, no kidding. Got whiplash from that succession of posts. (I liked the Robert Frost, though... one of my favorite poems)
thanks....and it's odd that the menthos + coke end-of-the-world scenario is rarely mentioned.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
Apology accepted.

Nap time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting RastaSteve:
Well if I was to get banned this now is then now is the time as the wx is quiet. Anyways sorry guys I meant no harm I was just joking. Pat sorry brother meant no harm,


yeah, but the problem is...You don't joke like that. Even I know that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31901
Quoting RitaEvac:


This will help with Ghost Adventurers, Zak will have a field day chasing spirits and taunting them like hell.

LOL
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Quoting sunlinepr:
This can improve Weather satellite technology...

Invisibility Cloak: Scientists Achieve Optical Invisibility in Visible Light Range of Spectrum

ScienceDaily (May 18, 2011) — "Seeing something invisible with your own eyes is an exciting experience," say Joachim Fischer and Tolga Ergin. For about one year, both physicists and members of the team of Professor Martin Wegener at KIT's Center for Functional Nanostructures (CFN) have worked on refining the structure of the Karlsruhe invisibility cloak to such an extent that it is also effective in the visible spectral range.

"The invisibility cloak now developed is an attractive object demonstrating the fantastic possibilities of the rather new field of transformation optics and metamaterials. The design options that opened up during the last years had not been deemed possible before," emphasizes Ergin. "We expect dramatic improvements of light-based technologies, such as lenses, solar cells, microscopes, objectives, chip production, and data communication."

Link


This will help with Ghost Adventurers, Zak will have a field day chasing spirits and taunting them like hell.
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OK....in an attempt to get the blog back on track...Our first TW is looking rather spirally.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31901
This can improve Weather satellite technology...

Invisibility Cloak: Scientists Achieve Optical Invisibility in Visible Light Range of Spectrum

ScienceDaily (May 18, 2011) — "Seeing something invisible with your own eyes is an exciting experience," say Joachim Fischer and Tolga Ergin. For about one year, both physicists and members of the team of Professor Martin Wegener at KIT's Center for Functional Nanostructures (CFN) have worked on refining the structure of the Karlsruhe invisibility cloak to such an extent that it is also effective in the visible spectral range.

"The invisibility cloak now developed is an attractive object demonstrating the fantastic possibilities of the rather new field of transformation optics and metamaterials. The design options that opened up during the last years had not been deemed possible before," emphasizes Ergin. "We expect dramatic improvements of light-based technologies, such as lenses, solar cells, microscopes, objectives, chip production, and data communication."

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
Well, about an hour ago, it was a fun, freewheeling conversation that was quite humorous. But as usually happens, people got caught up in the moment, pushed the boundaries, and stepped over a line.

Now its a buzzkill (and back to work).
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Quoting jeffs713:
See this line here?

Most of the blog is on this side.
---------------------------
But you stepped over it, and are now alone on this side.
Enjoy your time off...
from R. Frost to that...a rapid trip to the gutter.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Another round of rain for PR



Otra vez cayo granizo,ahora fue en Morovis.

Again,hail fell in Puerto Rico,this time in a town called Morovis.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14218
See this line here?

Most of the blog is on this side.
---------------------------
But you stepped over it, and are now alone on this side.
Enjoy your time off...
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Ya'll have fun with that .... Im out c u later
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Hasta la Vista for
Rasta la Stevah!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
enjoy your "Vacation"
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Another round of rain for PR

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
Quoting Neapolitan:

Ha!

(Okay, the buzzkill: I work with a meteorite group that sent some experts to the house two days after the incident, and they immediately ruled out any possible meteorite strike. FWIW, they've decided on two possibilities: a) pranksters either set off a small buried charge [black powder would do the damage with a relatively small bang], or tied a stout rope to a small tree/large bush planted at the site and drove quickly away [and roots in and around the hole agree with this]; b) there was a natural or man-made buildup of some sort of gas followed by an ignition. There's no fracking anywhere nearby, so dirt from the "crater" is being analyzed for trace elements. I go with A. If you live near there and want to check it out yourself, WU-mail for the address.)


I'll bet you're one o' those 'Climate Change' cultists, too...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10484
I beg yer pardon ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting Neapolitan:

Ha!

(Okay, the buzzkill: I work with a meteorite group that sent some experts to the house two days after the incident, and they immediately ruled out any possible meteorite strike. FWIW, they've decided on two possibilities: a) pranksters either set off a small buried charge [black powder would do the damage with a relatively small bang], or tied a stout rope to a small tree/large bush planted at the site and drove quickly away [and roots in and around the hole agree with this]; b) there was a natural or man-made buildup of some sort of gas followed by an ignition. There's no fracking anywhere nearby, so dirt from the "crater" is being analyzed for trace elements. I go with A. If you live near there and want to check it out yourself, WU-mail for the address.)


you. are.no.fun.at.all.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10484

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

Robert Frost





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Quoting presslord:
Proof?!?!?! You want proof?!?!?!?! Here's your proof!!!!!!!!!!
Link

Ha!

(Okay, the buzzkill: I work with a meteorite group that sent some experts to the house two days after the incident, and they immediately ruled out any possible meteorite strike. FWIW, they've decided on two possibilities: a) pranksters either set off a small buried charge [black powder would do the damage with a relatively small bang], or tied a stout rope to a small tree/large bush planted at the site and drove quickly away [and roots in and around the hole agree with this]; b) there was a natural or man-made buildup of some sort of gas followed by an ignition. There's no fracking anywhere nearby, so dirt from the "crater" is being analyzed for trace elements. I go with A. If you live near there and want to check it out yourself, WU-mail for the address.)
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Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Friday is going to be the best, I can tell its going to be hella fun in here.
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Ive always loved things that fall from the sky ...rain, snow, ... but I hadnt concidered all this
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Quoting Levi32:
The first tropical wave of the season is now advancing into Guyana, and will likely bring showers/thunderstorms to Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow.

the wave is looking nice, isn't it levi
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im leaving before this doomsday fest chugs down the track with the crazy train, and the pshyco clown that follows.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Somewhere, ancient Mesoamericans are getting one heck of a laugh...
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lol it is ... I love it all
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Quoting DopplarDee:
U guys r killin me!!! ... this is more amusing than tv any day of the week :))
...not sure that's a complement.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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