La Niña fades to neutral; April the globe's 4th - 7th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:12 PM GMT on May 17, 2011

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April 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated April the 4th warmest on record, tied with April 2005. April 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. The UK had its hottest April on record, with rainfall only 21% of average. Huge fires burned through Scotland, England, and Northern Ireland, fanned by strong spring winds.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April, 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña fades to neutral
The La Niña that began in June 2010 is now transitioning to neutral conditions, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America are now just 0.4°C below average, the first time since June 2010 that these temperatures have not been 0.5°C or more cooler than average, the threshold for a La Niña. However, it is possible that these water could cool a bit again over the next few weeks, so NOAA has not yet declared an official end to this La Niña episode. Equatorial SSTs were 0.5°C below average in the central Pacific, and average to above-average temperatures have emerged in the eastern Pacific. While this signals the end to La Niña, the CPC cautions that the atmosphere is still behaving like La Niña is continuing. An animation of SSTs since February shows the weakening La Niña nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May.

Arctic sea ice 5th lowest on record
Arctic sea ice declined slowly through most of April, and had the 5th lowest extent since satellite record began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. However, sea ice extent began declining more quickly toward the end of the month, and as of May 16 was the second lowest on record.

I'll have more on the Mississippi River flood next post. If you haven't seen it, read my post, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River Old River Control Structure.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Angela is a new wunderground hire, with a Masters degree in Meteorology, who will be helping out with my blog and the site's weather education and climate change content.

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Quoting Levi32:


Hey Kman good to see ya :)

Indeed, would be nice to get some rain up there. The GFS keeps hinting at it before the month ends. These deep troughs have been keeping the monsoon trough out of the western Caribbean so far.


Hey guys.This trough that is hanging around the Eastern Caribbean has to move because Puerto Rico is going thru a bad situation with many rivers over their banks,dams with open gates,between 5-8 inches since last Saturday,hail falling,mini tornadoes,waterspouts. We have been thru all.I can send some to the Caymans and to Florida right?
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Low pressure centered over North Carolina is driving cool and moist Atlantic air onshore and to the West.

Thanks ... my hair hates this weather .... Im goin back 2 Orlando!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
East Idaho Forecast:

Mostly cloudy with a 99% chance of dirt. Winds out of the southwest at 40 mph with gusts to 55.:(

Sand storm in eastern Idaho

...the SAL is vacationing in Idaho.

That looks pretty Dread...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24916
I actually wouldn't be too surprised to see that tropical wave bring some rain to the western Caribbean in several days. It will be tracking along the north coast of South America at the same time that a trough-split from the current trough over the SE US moves over the NW Caribbean Sea. Such a trough could draw the wave, or a portion of it, northward a bit. The divergent upper dynamics would also favor rainfall should the wave move into that area.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Hey everyone I just got a new scoop from Cyclone Oz. Check out this Facebook post he just made:

Hello To All. I am taking time to send you all this message that I am retiring from all storm chasing effective immediately. Best wishes to all my other storm chasing friends and to all my supporters. It was an interesting run of many decades, and my only regret is that "storm-proofed" and internet broadcast technology was not available during all those years when I was a young man. May you all be blessed!

Damn! damn damn damn. Oh well I am sure he has good reason.
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ok...so vodka, cherries, and sweetness. Got it.
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East Idaho Forecast:

Mostly cloudy with a 99% chance of dirt. Winds out of the southwest at 40 mph with gusts to 55.:(

Sand storm in eastern Idaho

...the SAL is vacationing in Idaho.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Okay - so when is this mythical Florida 'rainy' season going to start because we sure could use it right now, top things off last years rainy season was a dud.
Was it ever...I dont know Ted, things are changing so fast from the normal rainy pattern, its hard to say.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
Quoting hydrus:
Not much Sahara dust at the moment...Link

Yep.
I made a post on that earlier today.
Unusual to see so little Dust heading into June.
Low dust levels tend to allow/encourage T-Waves coming off Africa to become better defined.
Just another factor in the Potential set-up.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24916
Quoting aquak9:


Yeah, but would you rather have one pretty woman, or ten ugly women?


In the squadron we had a motto: "Go ugly early - it saves time and money."
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Okay - so when is this mythical Florida 'rainy' season going to start because we sure could use it right now, top things off last years rainy season was a dud.
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Quoting aquak9:


Yeah, but would you rather have one pretty woman, or ten ugly women?
uummmmm....How about 5 sweet average looking women....please.?....With a cherry on it...
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Quoting SQUAWK:



10

edit: 9+1

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Quoting RastaSteve:
Euro is indicating a tropical low approaching the YUC Channel in 144 hours. Interesting!


Not that I can see:

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Quoting aquak9:


Yeah, but would you rather have one pretty woman, or ten ugly women?
...depends on how much vodka I've drank.;^)
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Not much Sahara dust at the moment...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
Quoting aquak9:


Yeah, but would you rather have one pretty woman, or ten ugly women?


10

edit: 9 plus 1
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Well Pottery, you've done it wrong already. It's "re-ported." Now get it right!

De-ported.
Flaged and Ignerd.

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24916
Quoting hydrus:
Its not that there so hot...They out number the guys buy a huge margin...Which makes a lot of guys very happy...:)


Yeah, but would you rather have one pretty woman, or ten ugly women?
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Quoting DopplarDee:
I love all the maps ya'll r posting ... I live n Ohio and Ive noticed the rain is comming from my east and the temps r n the 40s but only over Ohio some of Va ,KY, and IN ... can anyone tell me why .... (in laymans terms)Please?


Low pressure centered over North Carolina is driving cool and moist Atlantic air onshore and to the West.
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Quoting RastaSteve:



On average, the rainy season begins in Orlando on May 27 and in Daytona Beach on May 29.

Read more: http://www.wesh.com/weather/19494242/detail.html#i xzz1MeEZXgz6
My bad...I was referring to the S.W. Florida region..
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Quoting aquak9:
Russian chicks are hot?

Think of TheChart as a really cool tattoo...
Its not that there so hot...They out number the guys buy a huge margin...Which makes a lot of guys very happy...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
Quoting pottery:

REPORTED!
What Blog Police?
heheheh

Some heavy rains falling on the capital in the North West of the Island right now, with pretty impressive black sky.
Clouds are blowing in from the southwest, pulling in moisture from that mess over Venezuela.
Still as a tomb here, waiting to see if the rains will get here to Central Trinidad. Got almost 1/2" yesterday.


Well Pottery, you've done it wrong already. It's "re-ported." Now get it right!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there Levi.

Good to see you back on the blog. Too bad that wave isn't headed for the NW Caribbean. The rainfall deficit here since last November has been quite severe and the November 2010 deficit is the lowest recorded rainfall since record keeping began in 1957

The past several weeks has seen no rain at all other than the odd sprinkle and clear skies with high daytime temps are pushing up the TCHP levels in the NW Caribbean fairly quickly.

Normally the SW Caribbean would be producing a lot of convection by now but so far this year very little to speak of. Perhaps a slow start to the season on tap but a few powerful systems when they do develop.





Hey Kman good to see ya :)

Indeed, would be nice to get some rain up there. The GFS keeps hinting at it before the month ends. These deep troughs have been keeping the monsoon trough out of the western Caribbean so far.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting aquak9:
Russian chicks are hot?

Think of TheChart as a really cool tattoo...
It is also a shrine for the weather fanatics to go and worship...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
Quoting twhcracker:


does anyone know when this usually happens on the average? I am really worried the high will settle over the florida panhandle and we will be in for more drought...
On average, the rainy season begins the second or third week of June.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
Russian chicks are hot?

Think of TheChart as a really cool tattoo...
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Quoting hydrus:
Most of the old school Florida mets will say it is officially the start of rainy season when the trade winds have become established across the Bahamas into the state. This also means that the Bermuda high has migrated to its typical summertime position.


does anyone know when this usually happens on the average? I am really worried the high will settle over the florida panhandle and we will be in for more drought...
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Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I still don't understand "The Chart".
The Chart.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
I love all the maps ya'll r posting ... I live n Ohio and Ive noticed the rain is comming from my east and the temps r n the 40s but only over Ohio some of Va ,KY, and IN ... can anyone tell me why .... (in laymans terms)Please?
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Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Peggy does not hand out purple hippos. Only trucker hats and key chains. Chicks dig them.
And I dig Chicks...Russia is absolutely brimming with them...The Beatles tune Back in the U.S.S.R supports this statement. You can see the moisture associated with the tropical wave moving into northern South America.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
Quoting Levi32:
Our first tropical wave is still chugging along, now just north of French Guiana, with clear curvature still apparent on visible imagery:



Hi there Levi.

Good to see you back on the blog. Too bad that wave isn't headed for the NW Caribbean. The rainfall deficit here since last November has been quite severe and the November 2010 deficit is the lowest recorded rainfall since record keeping began in 1957

The past several weeks has seen no rain at all other than the odd sprinkle and clear skies with high daytime temps are pushing up the TCHP levels in the NW Caribbean fairly quickly.

Normally the SW Caribbean would be producing a lot of convection by now but so far this year very little to speak of. Perhaps a slow start to the season on tap but a few powerful systems when they do develop.



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Derrumbes e inundaciones en varias carreteras

Por otra parte, en Yabucoa la carretera PR-906 en el barrio Aguacate está parcialmente cerrada por un derrumbe de rocas, informó el Departamento de Transportación y Obras Públicas (DTOP).

Las rutas alternas para los conductores que transitan por dicha vía son la PR-3 y PR-53.

Mientras la cacarretera PR-901 en el Municipio de Humacao se encuentra parcialmente abierta, los conductores pueden transitar por dicha área con la debida precaución, según el DTOP.

Los aguaceros afectaron el paso por la carretera PR-191 y la PR-31, en el sector La Fe en Naguabo, quedando inundada la vía de rodaje.

Las rutas alternas para los conductores que transitan por dichas áreas son la carretera PR-3 y PR-53, de acuerdo al DTOP.

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2001
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Quoting alfabob:

I'll agree that the observation of weather is subjective, and that you can't tell if there is low level vorticity if there is cloud cover; but there were periods with gaps in cloud cover, and it was somewhat visible on RGB (now it is obvious on RGB). So if I am correct about it (in reference to my previous question), is it common for a single vorticity to last for a couple of days in the ITCZ or could that potentially hint at possible formation?


Circulations within the ITCZ commonly last for several days, sometimes over a week, before evolving into anything more. Think back to some of the invests in the Atlantic last year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
"As long as we have a voucher..."

Quoting aquak9:
minnie- I promise Peggy will make you laugh, I promise. And now that I knowabout the commercials, it is a cool handle.

Yes?
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Quoting pottery:

REPORTED!
What Blog Police?
heheheh

Some heavy rains falling on the capital in the North West of the Island right now, with pretty impressive black sky.
Clouds are blowing in from the southwest, pulling in moisture from that mess over Venezuela.
Still as a tomb here, waiting to see if the rains will get here to Central Trinidad. Got almost 1/2" yesterday.
Taz was playing blog-cop yesterday. Threatening to report anyone posting" The Chart ". Cloudy, drizzly day here Wind out of the north at 10 to 25 mph...55 degrees...no good..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I understand why people are suspicious. After seeing the troll yesterday making the rude comments towards aquak9, I understand why a new handle is under scrutiny.

All I can say is every new handle is not a troll. At some point, everyone on here was a new handle. Actions speak louder than handles.
Yeah I shared Mikes suspicions yesterday but it the scruffy dog is vouching for you....:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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