Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Unprecented floods on the Mississippi, in Colombia, and Canada

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on May 16, 2011

The great Mississippi River flood of 2011 continues to make history, with Saturday's opening of the flood gates of the Morganza Spillway marking just the second time that flood control structure has been used since its construction in 1956. With the Morganza, Bonnet Carre', and Birds Point-New Madrid Spillways all open, the Army Corps of Engineers has now opened all of its major spillways simultaneously for the first time ever. The Mississippi is rising at Vicksburg, Mississippi, where the water has now reached 56.5', exceeding the previous all-time record of 56.2', set during the great flood of 1927. Natchez, Mississippi, is also at its greatest flood height on record, with the water at 60.6'. The previous record high was 58', set in 1937. However, the opening of the Morganza spillway has reduced the predicted heights of the great flood of 2011 from Natchez to New Orleans by 1 to 1.5'. This will serve to greatly reduce the pressure on the levees and on the Old River Control Structure, which as I discussed in my previous post, is America's Achilles' heel, and must be protected. According the National Weather Service, flood heights along the Lower Mississippi from Natchez to New Orleans will peak this week, and slowly fall next week. Rainfall over the next five days is expected to be minimal over the Lower Mississippi watershed. The next chance for significant rain over the region will come Sunday, May 22.

Figure 1. Saturday's opening of the first gate on the Morganza Spillway, as seen on the live feed from USTREAM.

Devastating flooding continues in Colombia
Devastating flooding has hit South America in Colombia, where exceptionally heavy spring rains have killed at least 425 people so far this year, with 482 others missing. Damages are in the billions, and there are 3 million disaster victims. "Some parts of the country have been set back 15 to 20 years", said Plan’s Country Director in Colombia, Gabriela Bucher. "Over the past 10 months we have registered five or six times more rainfall than usual," said the director of Colombia's weather service, Ricardo Lozano. Up to 800 mm (about 32 inches) of rain has fallen along the Pacific coast of Colombia over the past two weeks (Figure 3). The severe spring flooding follows on the heels of the heaviest fall rains in Colombia's History. Weather records go back 42 year in Colombia. Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos said, "the tragedy the country is going through has no precedents in our history." The 2010 floods killed 571 people--the second deadliest year for floods in Colombian history, next to 1987. The floods did over $1 billion in damage, and affected 2.8 million people. In many places, the flood waters from this great disaster never fully receded, and are now rising again due to this latest round of intense flooding. More rain is in the forecast--the latest forecast from the GFS model calls for an additional 5 - 10 inches (200 - 400 mm) across much of western and northern Colombia in the coming week.

Figure 2. Satellite-observed rainfall over Colombia during the past two weeks shows a region of up to 800 mm (about 32 inches) has fallen near the Pacific coast. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Colombia's rainy season usually has two peaks: one the fall in October, then then another in the spring in April - May. The heavy rains are due to the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the area encircling the earth near the Equator where winds originating in the northern and southern hemispheres come together. When these great wind belts come together (or "converge", thus the name "Convergence Zone"), the converging air is forced upwards, since it has nowhere else to go. The rising air fuels strong thunderstorm updrafts, creating a band of very heavy storms capable of causing heavy flooding rains. In La Niña years, when a large region of colder than average water is off the Pacific coast of Colombia, rainfall tends to increase over Colombia. La Niña was moderate to strong during the fall 2010 rains and floods in Colombia, and was largely to blame for Colombia's deadly rainy season. However, in recent months, La Niña has waned. April sea surface temperatures off the Pacific coast of Colombia (0° - 10°N, 85° - 75°W), warmed to the 13th highest temperatures in the past 100 years, 0.68°C above average. Thus, this month's flooding in Colombia may not be due to La Niña.

See also my December 2010 post, Heaviest rains in Colombia's history trigger deadly landslide; 145 dead or missing

Figure 3. Dramatic video of flooding in Colombia over the weekend. Flood waters swept away cars and buses in a busy street in the city of Barranquilla, and passengers climbed on the roofs of their vehicles in order to escape the flood waters. Video credit: BBC.

300-year flood in Canada; wildfires destroy large portions of Slave Lake, Alberta
In Manitoba, Canada, heavy spring snow melt in combination with heavy rains have combined to create record flooding on the Assiniboine River. Authorities intentionally breached a levee over the weekend to save hundreds of homes, but inundated huge areas of farmland as a result. The flood is being called a 300-year flood, and damages are already in excess of $1 billion. In Alberta, Canada, reverse extreme is causing havoc: severe drought and strong spring winds have made ideal conditions for wildfires, which swept into the community of Slave Lake (population 6,700) yesterday. The fires destroyed hundreds of buildings, burning down the town hall and at least 30% of the town, according to preliminary media reports.

Figure 4. Video of the May 15, 2011 Slave Lake fire.

First tropical wave of the year over the Atlantic
The first tropical wave of 2011 is now over the tropical Atlantic near 6°N 46°W, according to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion. The wave will bring heavy rain to the northeast coast of South America over the next two days, but is too far south to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. The Atlantic hurricane season is just two weeks away, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began yesterday. So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days.

Jeff Masters

The Great Flood of 2011 (jperilloux)

KCS train crossing the trestle through the Bonnet Carre Spillway at Norco, LA. Flood water diverted from Miss. River

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351. CaicosRetiredSailor 1:40 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
I see... Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133

352. Patrap 1:41 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
..it blinds,it blinds,.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111603

353. MechEngMet 1:44 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting pottery: And shirts to go with it, too. AHH, Life is so sweet! You still in VI's ? Sadly no. That was a 15th wedding anniversary, back in November '02. Chartered a 40 ft Benetau from Moorings, and sailed for 8 days. Highlights: The Baths, Bitter End YC, Beam Reaching to Anegada, too many to list... We want to go back, perhaps retire there. Land is still cheap but supplies, well, I'm sure you know... Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

354. AllyBama 1:44 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
I LOVE that showercurtain!!!...I have a fish shower curtain now but my fish are bigger!..lol Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

355. MechEngMet 1:52 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: By Gorah! I may have found it! Funky Fish Nautical Shower Curtain Is that being marketed as a portable CAT-5 storm deflector, Fukushima nuclear fallout bunker, and EF 6+ shelter? No? Someone's missing out on a golden opportunity. Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

356. pottery 1:52 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting MechEngMet: Sadly no. That was a 15th wedding anniversary, back in November '02. Chartered a 40 ft Benetau from Moorings, and sailed for 8 days. Highlights: The Baths, Bitter End YC, Beam Reaching to Anegada, too many to list... We want to go back, perhaps retire there. Land is still cheap but supplies, well, I'm sure you know... Best option, if finances allow, is to have a place there so you can visit for long periods when you want to. And rent it out when you are not there. Those small Islands are very, um, SMALL. In every sense. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

357. emcf30 1:53 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
USAprimeCreditPeggy: Can i use my rewards points to go towards my flight in a Hurricane Hunter Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

358. AllyBama 1:56 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting emcf30: USAprimeCreditPeggy: Can i use my rewards points to go towards my flight in a Hurricane Hunter check with Visa under the TRAVEL REWARDS section. Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

359. FLWeatherFreak91 1:56 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01: cold air aloft is causing some instability showers to begin developing here on the West Coast of FLorida. This is the first time I can remember getting convection and being able to call it "light convection". Here convection almost always means torrential rain. But when you have a dew point of 59, a temp of 68, and and only a 1.1 PWAT, I guess you can't expect much more! lol I'm surprised any convection is developing in such a poor environment. Normally you won't see a cloud in the sky here in these conditions. But we actually have shallow, but billowing convection as the sun sets, although ragged in appearance, unlike our normal moist, tropical convection. Then again, sometimes severe thunderstorms have developed in the northern plains with even less moisture and even cooler temps then this. Its all about the steep lapse rates and upper disturbances, and convergence. The atmosphere can squeeze out a lot more moisture then you think, even "dry air" like we have, given the right atmospheric situations. Yeah, I was surprised to hear rain outside because of how unfavorable the atmosphere seemed to be for convection today. I'm planning on going island camping off the coast of Tarpon Springs tomorrow night, and unfortunately I don't see the atmosphere being any less favorable for light rain tomorrow evening. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

360. pottery 1:58 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
For those who are interested, WU Member 'Barefootontherocks' has a great blog on the floodgates ect in LA (Morganza and all of that) with good discussion going on. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

361. Patrap 1:59 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
NOAA P-3 flys into the eyewall of Katrina note pronounced "stadium effect" This is the view Dr. Masters had while with NOAA,on the P-3 Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111603

362. ShenValleyFlyFish 1:59 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Na, methinks: this is closer. Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

363. MechEngMet 2:00 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Good night all. Gotta go pour another Bourbon before bed. Busy day tomorrow. Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

364. CaicosRetiredSailor 2:04 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting pottery: Best option, if finances allow, is to have a place there so you can visit for long periods when you want to. And rent it out when you are not there. Those small Islands are very, um, SMALL. In every sense. yup, yes sir... I remember way back when this small island ran OUT of Barbancourt Rhum! of course in years afore that, back in the 80s it was normal (sic) for Providenciales to run out of gasoline at Christmas/New Years but that wasn't a problem if we had Rhum. Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133

365. Patrap 2:11 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Mississippi River shooting through Bonnet Carre Spillway faster than expected Published: Monday, May 16, 2011, 9:05 PM A week after the opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway, the height and pressure of the Mississippi River is shooting water through the spillway well above its rated capacity. Even though only 330 of its 350 bays are open, an estimated 316,000 cubic feet of water per second is passing through the control structure, more than the structure's rated capacity of 250,000 cfs, spillway manager Chris Brantley said Monday. The spillway was designed to divert as much as 250,000 cubic feet of water per second away from New Orleans. It is opened whenever the volume in the river is expected to surpass 1.25 million cubic feet of water per second. The extra flow is driven by the river's height, he said. Each cubic foot of water contains 7.48 gallons, which means that more than 1.1 billion gallons of water per hour is moving toward Lake Pontchartrain. All that water seems to be filling up the 7,600-acre spillway, and parish work crews, along with the corps and state officials, have been shoring up low spots along the levee, particularly on the west side of the U.S. 61 bridge across the spillway. We're monitoring the levee very closely, and we're seeing freeboard of about 5 feet, with a couple of exceptions, where it's about 3 feet, Brantley said. St. Charles Parish work crews, with the assistance of the state Department of Transportation and the corps, closed a small portion of the outer eastbound lane of Airline Drive to build a small dirt levee as an additional safety margin. Another low spot is on the other side of the bridge in the westbound lane, which corps officials are closely monitoring, Brantley said. Motorists who stop along the highway to watch the fast-moving water are being shooed away, and signs warning motorists not to park on the shoulder of the bridge have been posted. Brantley said corps hydrologists will calculate river flows to determine whether more bays should be opened Tuesday. The last time all Bonnet Carre bays were opened was in 1983. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111603

366. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:13 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
2011 Season Storms All Active Year Atlantic East Pacific Central Pacific West Pacific Indian Ocean Southern Hem. Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40618

367. Chicklit 2:18 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Evening folks. By YUNJI DE NIES, EMILY FRIEDMAN (@EmilyABC) and BEN FORER May 16, 2011 The Army Corps of Engineers opened two additional gates at the Mississippi River's Morganza Spillway today, unleashing a wall of water which is now flowing into the spillway at a rate greater than that of Niagara Falls, more than 100,000 cubic feet per second. At that rate it would take just over an hour and a half to cover the entire island of Manhattan in a foot of water. So far only 11 of the 125 gates have been opened and the Corps plans to open more as the river rises. LinktoABCnewsarticle Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

368. pottery 2:19 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Wow, Pat. Things getting a little hairy there... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

369. caneswatch 2:27 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon. If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers. Night y'all. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

370. Chicklit 2:33 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Jindal said the Louisiana State Police, Department of Wildlife & Fisheries and the U.S. Coast Guard are patrolling the Morganza floodway for both wildlife and people. State Police and Coast Guard helicopter flights are equipped with infrared-reading equipment that can detect the heat of humans or animals inside flooded buildings. The Louisiana National Guard has mobilized 1,100 troops to assist in the emergency, with many assigned to build temporary levees and participate in search and rescue missions. In St. Mary Parish, Jindal said water from Morganza and the Old River Control Structure will eventually force water east around Morgan City through Bayous Chene, Boeuf and Black, into Lake Palourde and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. To block some of the backwater flooding that will cause, state and parish officials are creating a stopper in Bayou Chene: sinking a barge in the middle of the waterway and connecting it to shore with rock and sand. The project has three spud barges and four tugs working to place 17,000 tons of rock, pumps able to pump 14,000 cubic feet per second out of the bayou, and several hundred feet of sheet piling in place. The sediment-laden water will be diverted south and southwest of Morgan City, where it can help nourish and expand wetlands. The rising floodwaters already has resulted in three sightings of endangered Louisiana black bears in the Atchafalaya basin, according to Wildlife & Fisheries officials, who urged residents to avoid them and other animals, including deer, turkeys, alligators and snakes attempting to reach high ground. First Glimmer of Better News from Nola.Com Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

371. hurricaneben 2:43 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting caneswatch: Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon. If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers. Night y'all. . I'm very sorry, I hope your family feels better. My grandma just died back in January from cancer--she was only 67 yrs old. Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 598

372. Orcasystems 2:49 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Complete Update Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

373. Jedkins01 3:01 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Yeah, I was surprised to hear rain outside because of how unfavorable the atmosphere seemed to be for convection today. I'm planning on going island camping off the coast of Tarpon Springs tomorrow night, and unfortunately I don't see the atmosphere being any less favorable for light rain tomorrow evening. yeah tomorrow even colder air aloft will swing in with a vort lobe rotating around the upper low, periods of clouds, sprinkles, and a couple of isolated strong storms are even possible due to steep lapse rates from cold air aloft. Now we are reminded how much of rain up north falls. Sometimes severe storms in the mountain west and northern plains form under even a lot drier and less favorable thunderstorm weather. But strong forcing from low pressure and cold air aloft can squeeze out even strong convection in a seemingly very harsh convective environment given the situation. Very cold air aloft over tropical air with lots of heat and deep tropical moisture and wind shear creates horrible weather. Like the brutal outbreak in the deep south. BTW, if you can ignore some sprinkles, and some clouds and don't mind refreshing weather, you should still enjoy it!!! Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

374. EYEStoSEA 3:05 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting caneswatch: Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon. If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers. Night y'all. Just came on, Canes....I am so very sorry to hear this. I will certainly keep you and your family in my thoughts and prayers. Have a safe trip. Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1491

375. ShenValleyFlyFish 3:24 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
"He who shall not be named's" baby picture Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

376. weatherbro 3:25 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Dewpoints are expected to be in the 30's/40's(after the second frontal passage) tomorrow so it'll get interesting. Wednesday/Thursday guaranteed fire sensitive days. Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155

377. EYEStoSEA 3:45 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Reed Timmer on the Leno Show in a few minutes.... Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1491

378. CaicosRetiredSailor 4:11 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
The rising floodwaters already has resulted in three sightings of endangered Louisiana black bears in the Atchafalaya basin, according to Wildlife & Fisheries officials, who urged residents to avoid them and other animals, including deer, turkeys, alligators and snakes attempting to reach high ground. http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/05 /mississippi_river_flooding_mov.html Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133

380. Seawall 4:58 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting Chicklit: Jindal said the Louisiana State Police, Department of Wildlife & Fisheries and the U.S. Coast Guard are patrolling the Morganza floodway for both wildlife and people. State Police and Coast Guard helicopter flights are equipped with infrared-reading equipment that can detect the heat of humans or animals inside flooded buildings. The Louisiana National Guard has mobilized 1,100 troops to assist in the emergency, with many assigned to build temporary levees and participate in search and rescue missions. In St. Mary Parish, Jindal said water from Morganza and the Old River Control Structure will eventually force water east around Morgan City through Bayous Chene, Boeuf and Black, into Lake Palourde and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. To block some of the backwater flooding that will cause, state and parish officials are creating a stopper in Bayou Chene: sinking a barge in the middle of the waterway and connecting it to shore with rock and sand. The project has three spud barges and four tugs working to place 17,000 tons of rock, pumps able to pump 14,000 cubic feet per second out of the bayou, and several hundred feet of sheet piling in place. The sediment-laden water will be diverted south and southwest of Morgan City, where it can help nourish and expand wetlands. The rising floodwaters already has resulted in three sightings of endangered Louisiana black bears in the Atchafalaya basin, according to Wildlife & Fisheries officials, who urged residents to avoid them and other animals, including deer, turkeys, alligators and snakes attempting to reach high ground. First Glimmer of Better News from Nola.Com And if you do some research; you'll find out this will cause more flooding in Houma. Houma floods, and maybe, just maybe, Morgan City will be spared. Cathy (from Louisiana). And if anyone wants to know the correct pronounciation of the basin this is flooding, it is Chafaliya. The A is silent. Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401

381. sunlinepr 5:25 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Link Does anyone in the blog, living W or Central Conus have a geiger counter to check if these are inflated news? (CNN) -- Minuscule levels of radiation from Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant incident have been detected in a widening number of U.S. states, but the Environmental Protection Agency reaffirmed this week that the levels represent no threat to public health. "To date, data from EPA's real-time radiation air monitoring networks continue to show typical fluctuations in background radiation levels," Jonathan Edwards, director of the EPA's Radiation Protection Division, said in a statement Monday. "The levels we are seeing are far below any levels of concern." At least 15 states reported detecting radioisotopes in air or water or both. No states have recommended that residents take potassium iodide, a salt that protects the thyroid gland from radioactive iodine. Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

382. stillwaiting 5:57 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting caneswatch: Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon. If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers. Night y'all. ....sorry for your loss and have aa safe trip brother...... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

384. SWFLgazer 8:32 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Our sympathy, caneswatch! Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447

385. IKE 10:20 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
OLDWICK, N.J. May 16 (BestWire) — Recent earnings announcements from global reinsurers illustrate the damage that record first quarter 2011 catastrophe losses did to earnings and operating results. The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) industry, meanwhile, sustained significant catastrophe losses through April. Insured losses from winter storms and severe thunderstorm and tornado events—including one outbreak that could represent the industry’s costliest ever—already are pressuring operating results just before what has been forecast to be an active Atlantic hurricane season. How insurers manage catastrophe programs for the remainder of the year will be influenced by pricing and availability of property catastrophe coverage, as well as emerging views of loss exposure and whether the rising frequency and severity of storms seen in recent years is now the norm. — A.M. Best Co. believes U.S. primary insurers could face higher reinsurance costs at the upcoming July 1 renewals, given first quarter 2011 catastrophe losses sustained by global reinsurers and the release of a new version of Risk Management Solutions Inc.’s wind model, as companies evaluate the need for additional reinsurance protection. — Forecasters predict three to five intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, above the long-term average of two to three intense storms. One forecaster notes that the United States has not had a three year stretch without a hurricane landfall since the 1860s. — Volatility in property lines related to above normal frequency and severity of thunderstorms, tornadoes and related events in recent years continues to pressure the financial results of regional insurers and single state writers concentrated in the affected states. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

386. IKE 10:26 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
5 day QPF... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

387. aquak9 10:34 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
5 day QPF? That's not very nice. Is there a 10-day QPF? dare I hope for anything? Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

388. IKE 10:40 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting aquak9: 5 day QPF? That's not very nice. Is there a 10-day QPF? dare I hope for anything? Aquak...I don't see much of anything for Florida for the next 7-8 days...maybe longer. ................................................. .................................................. ............ Latest GFS showing the next rain chances for you and me in about 10 days... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

389. aquak9 10:42 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
oh well, I kinda figured as much. we go under a Red Flag warning today- didn't look to see when, or for how long....was too depressing. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

390. afj3 11:09 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 337

391. CybrTeddy 11:16 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting RastaSteve: Damm GFS is spitting out 6" to 10" startng later next week going thru the Memorial Day Holiday for parts of FL. WOW! It looks as if this rainy season is going to be a dousy. I'll believe it when I see it. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

392. IKE 11:22 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: I'll believe it when I see it. Ditto your thoughts. I don't see it on the latest GFS or ECMWF. I think it's going to be dry...for at least the next 10 days and then maybe a chance of rain in Florida the last 5 days of the month. ................................................. .................................................. ............ From the Tallahassee,FL. extended discussion..... "A WARM AND DRY EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON...NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD." Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

393. PensacolaDoug 11:36 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Bone dry in Pensacola. Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828

394. Tropicsweatherpr 11:42 AM GMT on May 17, 2011
Good morning.Contrary to Florida, in Puerto Rico,it has been a very wet May so far (Is normally one of the most rainy months) Today will be another unsetteled day here as flood advisories are up early.See my NE Caribbean blog for details. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8218

398. bappit 12:16 PM GMT on May 17, 2011
Quoting Seawall: And if anyone wants to know the correct pronounciation [sic] of the basin this is flooding, it is Chafaliya. The A is silent. Some people leave the A off. That's true. I might drop it from time to time, or maybe I almost skip over it. I also tend to say id'n instead of isn't. Edit: It id'n right but I don' care. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4384

399. IKE 12:21 PM GMT on May 17, 2011
Tampa....yearly rainfall to-date..... Year to date precipitation 10.82 Orlando International...yearly rainfall to-date..... Year to date precipitation 12.35 Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

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