America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:20 PM GMT on May 13, 2011

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America has an Achilles' heel. It lies on a quiet, unpopulated stretch of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, a few miles east of the tiny town of Simmesport. Rising up from the flat, wooded west flood plain of the Mississippi River tower four massive concrete and steel structures that would make a Pharaoh envious--the Army Corps' of Engineers greatest work, the billion-dollar Old River Control Structure. This marvel of modern civil engineering has, for fifty years, done what many thought impossible--impose man's will on the Mississippi River. Mark Twain, who captained a Mississippi river boat for many years, wrote in his book Life on the Mississippi, "ten thousand river commissions, with the mines of the world at their back, cannot tame that lawless stream, cannot curb it or define it, cannot say to it "Go here," or Go there, and make it obey; cannot save a shore which it has sentenced; cannot bar its path with an obstruction which it will not tear down, dance over, and laugh at." The great river wants to carve a new path to the Gulf of Mexico; only the Old River Control Structure keeps it at bay. Failure of the Old River Control Structure would be a severe blow to America's economy, interrupting a huge portion of our imports and exports that ship along the Mississippi River. Closure of the Mississippi to shipping would cost $295 million per day, said Gary LaGrange, executive director of the Port of New Orleans, during a news conference Thursday. The structure will receive its most severe test in its history in the coming two weeks, as the Mississippi River's greatest flood on record crests at a level never before seen.


Figure 1. Two views of the Mississippi River. Left: the meander paths of the Mississippi over time, as published in "Geological Investigation of the Alluvial Valley of the Lower Mississippi River" (Fisk, 1944). Right: The Army Corps of Engineers' view of Mississippi River peak flow rates during a maximum 1-in-500 year "Project Flood" (U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, 1958.) The places outlined in red are where the Corps has built flood control structures capable of diverting a portion of the Mississippi's flow.

A better path to the Gulf
The mighty Mississippi River keeps on rollin' along its final 300 miles to the Gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans--but unwillingly. There is a better way to the Gulf--150 miles shorter, and more than twice as steep. This path lies down the Atchafalaya River, which connects to the Mississippi at a point 45 miles north-northwest of Baton Rouge, 300 river miles from the Gulf of Mexico Delta. Each year, the path down the Atchafalaya grows more inviting. As the massive amounts of sediments the Mississippi carries--scoured from fully 41% of the U.S. land area--reach the Gulf of Mexico, the river's path grows longer. This forces it to dump large amounts of sediment hundreds of miles upstream, in order to build its bed higher and maintain the flow rates needed to flush such huge amounts of sediment to the sea. Thus the difference in elevation between the bed of the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya--currently 17 - 19 feet at typical flow rates of the rivers--grows ever steeper, and the path to the Gulf down the Atchafalaya more inviting. Floods like this year's great flood further increase the slope, as flood waters scour out the bed of the Atchafalaya. Without the Old River Control Structure, the Mississippi River would have carved a new path to the Gulf in the 1970s, leaving Baton Rouge and New Orleans stranded on a salt water estuary, with no fresh water to supply their people and industry.

History of the Old River Control Structure
The Mississippi River has been carving a path to the ocean since the time of the dinosaurs, always seeking the shortest and steepest route possible. Approximately once every 1000 years, the river jumps out of its banks and carves a new path. In John McPhee's fantastic essay, The Control of Nature, we learn:

The Mississippi's main channel of three thousand years ago is now the quiet water of Bayou Teche, which mimics the shape of the Mississippi. Along Bayou Teche, on the high ground of ancient natural levees, are Jeanerette, Breaux Bridge, Broussard, Olivier--arcuate strings of Cajun towns. Eight hundred years before the birth of Christ, the channel was captured from the east. It shifted abruptly and flowed in that direction for about a thousand years. In the second century a.d., it was captured again, and taken south, by the now unprepossessing Bayou Lafourche, which, by the year 1000, was losing its hegemony to the river's present course, through the region that would be known as Plaquemines. By the nineteen-fifties, the Mississippi River had advanced so far past New Orleans and out into the Gulf that it was about to shift again, and its offspring Atchafalaya was ready to receive it.

For the Mississippi to make such a change was completely natural, but in the interval since the last shift Europeans had settled beside the river, a nation had developed, and the nation could not afford nature. The consequences of the Atchafalaya's conquest of the Mississippi would include but not be limited to the demise of Baton Rouge and the virtual destruction of New Orleans. With its fresh water gone, its harbor a silt bar, its economy disconnected from inland commerce, New Orleans would turn into New Gomorrah. Moreover, there were so many big industries between the two cities that at night they made the river glow like a worm. As a result of settlement patterns, this reach of the Mississippi had long been known as "the German coast," and now, with B. F. Goodrich, E. I. du Pont, Union Carbide, Reynolds Metals, Shell, Mobil, Texaco, Exxon, Monsanto, Uniroyal, Georgia-Pacific, Hydrocarbon Industries, Vulcan Materials, Nalco Chemical, Freeport Chemical, Dow Chemical, Allied Chemical, Stauffer Chemical, Hooker Chemicals, Rubicon Chemicals, American Petrofina--with an infrastructural concentration equaled in few other places--it was often called "the American Ruhr." The industries were there because of the river. They had come for its navigational convenience and its fresh water. They would not, and could not, linger beside a tidal creek. For nature to take its course was simply unthinkable. The Sixth World War would do less damage to southern Louisiana. Nature, in this place, had become an enemy of the state.


The Atchafalaya steadily took more and more of the Mississippi's water to the Gulf of Mexico during the 20th Century, until by 1950, it had captured 30% of the great river's flow, becoming the 4th largest river in the U.S. by volume discharge. The Army Corps of Engineers stepped in, and in the late 1950s began construction of a massive structure that resembled a dam with gates to control the amount of water escaping from the Mississippi to the Atchafalaya. This "Low Sill Structure", completed in 1963, consisted of a dam with 11 gates, each 44 feet wide, that could be raised or lowered. The entire structure was 566 feet long. A companion "Overbank Structure" was built on dry land next to the Low Sill Structure, in order to control extreme water flows during major floods. The Overbank Structure had 73 bays, each 44 feet wide, and was 3,356 feet long. The total cost of the two structures: about $300 million.


Figure 2. Aerial view of the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure, looking downstream (south.) Image credit: U.S. Army Corp of Engineers.

The flood of 1973: Old River Control Structure almost fails
For the first ten years after completion of the Old River Control Structure, no major floods tested it, leading the Army Corps to declare, "We harnessed it, straightened it, regularized it, shackled it." But in 1973, a series of heavy snowstorms in the Upper Midwest was followed by exceptionally heavy spring rains in the South. The Mighty Mississippi rose inexorably until the flow rate at the Old River Control Structure reached 2 million cubic feet per second--twenty times the flow of Niagara Falls--and stayed there for more almost three months. Turbulence from the unprecedented flows through the Low Sill Structure scoured the foundation and destroyed a 67-foot-high wing wall that guided water into the structure. Scour holes as big as a football field developed upstream, downstream, and underneath the structure, exposing 50 feet of the 90-foot long steel pilings supporting the structure. The structure began vibrating dangerously, so much so that it would slam open car doors of vehicles parking on top of Highway 15 that crosses over the top. Emergency repairs saved the structure, but it came every close to complete failure.

The flood of 1973 permanently damaged the Low Sill Structure, forcing the Corps to build additional structures to control future great floods. The first of these structures was the Auxilliary Control Structure. This 442-foot long structure, completed in 1986, consisted of six gates, each 62 feet wide, and cost $206 million to build. Joining the mix in the late 1980s was a 192-megawatt hydroelectric power plant, build at a cost of $520 million.


Figure 3. The flow of water in the Mississippi River as of Friday, May 13 (red line) has exceeded 2 million cubic feet per second, and was approaching the all-time record (dashed blue line.) Image credit: USACE.

The Old River Control Structure's greatest test: the flood of 2011
Flow rates of the Mississippi at the latitude of the Old River Control Structure are expected to exceed the all-time record on Saturday, giving the Old River Control Structure its greatest test since the flood of 1973. Since there are now four structures to control the flooding instead of just the two that existed in 1973, the Old River Control Structure should be able to handle a much greater flow of water. The flood of 2011 is not as large as the maximum 1-in-500 year "Project Flood" that the Old River Control Structure was designed to handle, and the Army Corps of Engineers has expressed confidence that the structure can handle the current flood. However, the system has never been tested in these conditions before. This is a dangerous flood, and very high water levels are expected for many weeks. Unexpected flaws in the design of the Old River Control Structure may give it a few percent chance of failure under these sorts of unprecedented conditions. While I expect that the Old River Control Structure will indeed hold back the great flood of 2011, we also need to be concerned about the levees on either side of the structure. The levees near Old River Control Structure range from 71 - 74 feet high, and the flood is expected to crest at 65.5 feet on May 22. This is, in theory, plenty of levee to handle such a flood, but levees subjected to long periods of pressure can and do fail sometimes, and the Corps has to be super-careful to keep all the levees under constant surveillance and quickly move to repair sand boils or piping problems that might develop. Any failure of a levee on the west bank of the Mississippi could allow the river to jump its banks permanently and carve a new path to the Gulf of Mexico. I'll say more about the potential costs of such an event in a future post.

According to the latest information from the Army Corps the Old River Control Structure is currently passing 624,000 cubic feet per second of water, which is 1% beyond what is intended in a maximum "Project Flood." The flow rate of the Mississippi at New Orleans is at 100% of the maximum Project Flood. These are dangerous flow rates, and makes it likely that the Army Corps will open the Morganza Spillway in the next few days to take pressure off of the Old River Control Structure and New Orleans levees. Neither can be allowed to fail. In theory, the Old River Control Structure can be operated at 140% of a Project Flood, since there are now four control structures instead of just the two that existed in 1973 (flows rates of 300,000 cfs, 350,000 cfs, 320,000 cfs, and 170,000 cfs can go through the Low Sill, Auxiliary, Overbank, and Hydroelectric structures, respectively.) Apparently, the Corps is considering this, as evidenced by their Scenario #3 images they posted yesterday. This is a risky proposition, as the Old River Control Structure would be pushed to its absolute limit in this scenario. It would seem a lower risk proposition to open the Morganza spillway to divert up to 600,000 cfs, unless there are concerns the Corps has they aren't telling us about.


Figure 4. Kayaking, anyone? The stilling basin downstream of the Low Sill Structure of the Old River Control Structure, as seen during major flood stage of the Mississippi River on May 10, 2011. The flow rate is 2 - 3 times that of Niagara Falls here. Video by Lee Alessi.

Recommended reading
John McPhee's fantastic essay, The Control of Nature

Jeff Masters

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It's a wonderful article, but it's dated May.

I also find that on the internet I can't find any current information on the "Old River Control Structure."

I've heard it sustained some damage, but can't find any solid information about damages, or anything current. Every thing seems to reach back to May.

What gives?

signed August 2011



any suggests where else to look?
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Latitude flow is not the flow of the Mississippi. Latitude flow is the flow of all bodies of water at that latitude in that general area.

Therefore the latitude chart represents the flows of the Mississippi and Atchafalaya combined, not the Mississippi itself.
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Quoting NOLALawyer:
DARPA Time article: "On Saturday afternoon, Sandra Kelly, a 53-year-old cook, stood along the Atchafalaya (pronounced: Attach-uh-fah-la-ya) River"

Urk. uh-cha'-fuh-lie-yah

Merriam-Webster says it rhymes with Iphegenia.



It is pronounced:

Ah-Chaf-A-Lie-Yah.

Of course, everyone has their own way of saying it.

That must be the N.O. way. :)
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I've made a web interface to the map in Figure 1, the historical meanders of the Mississippi river. Enjoy!
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Quoting GBlet:
Windows has finally come up with Essentials, which works great.I also ditched the standard defrag program as well because all 3 are still based off the originals that are some 30 yrs old. Auslogics is a fantastic defrag program.


I try to avoid Windows applications, due to the constant intrusion of their software codes, and the regular patching of digital code (That's why you receive X number of updates every month).... Most of the time, I solve all my problems with freeware... Check ot this excellent link;

Link
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DARPA Time article: "On Saturday afternoon, Sandra Kelly, a 53-year-old cook, stood along the Atchafalaya (pronounced: Attach-uh-fah-la-ya) River"

Urk. uh-cha'-fuh-lie-yah

Merriam-Webster says it rhymes with Iphegenia.



It is pronounced:

Ah-Chaf-A-Lie-Yah.

Of course, everyone has their own way of saying it.
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[Quoting bappit:
722 Interesting. Thank you Mr. Sakharov ... I guess.

Found this tidbit about our atomic mischief in the Wikipedia mushroom cloud article.

If the fireball is comparable to the size of atmospheric density scale height....,]


Notice the "fireball" . Mushroom clouds can be in proportion to thunderstorms but they are a bit hotter yes? That is the affect I was wondering about.. How does that much heat effect the upper atmosphere? Any thoughts?
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seems a bit wet in this basin not too wet at least more like neutral
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chiklit- that really really stinks. Were you able to get your bank account fixed?
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I don't know when was the last time...but here in PR we had hail during the past weekend. Specifically on Saturday, there were reports of hail, strong winds and heavy showers in the municipality of Canovanas which is located at the northeast of the island. Widns were responsible for the damage of many automobiles that were impacted by trees. Fortunately, there were no reports of people affected by the storm.
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Woke up to the smell of smoke this morning; not a good leaf-burning day around here:
Coastal Volusia County
Fire Weather WarningStatement as of 4:09 AM EDT on May 16, 2011
... Red flag warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for low relative humidity with wind for Lake... Seminole... Orange and Volusia counties...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a red flag warning... which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening.

Westerly surface and transport winds will combine with
temperatures reaching the lower 80s to produce very good to excellent dispersion. In addition... minimum rh values are forecast to dip below 35 percent this afternoon across the warning area.

The other news is I had Norton which stunk and was told by my on-line college program to get McAfee which I did and since then have been infected about 3 times. Evidently, the social networks are crawling with bugs. This one came from an email on Facebook that I thought was from my neice! McAfee charges $89 every time to remove a virus and I wonder what I am paying my annual fee for. This time they asked me to give them 24 hours to devise a patch. There were so many people infected yesterday that I waited on the phone for 45 minutes and then hung up and contacted someone online.

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hydrus- got lost in that link, some REALLY frightening costumes...he had a great voice but some really out-there costumes.
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Good Morning. Very nice weather after the cool front along the Gulf but that does not slow down the flooding. With ENSO neutral conditions for H-Season and record heat in the Gulf, lets hope that storms stay out of the Gulf this season.....
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I can't even buy a storm
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792. GBlet
That's ok Rita I am not lost. A little leary this week as local mets are already talking about storm system that is 4 days out and Pottery is talking of strange weather in BC. Things that make you go hmmmm.
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791. IKE

Quoting RitaEvac:
Then we have someone to blame on the wildfires
lol.
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Then we have someone to blame on the wildfires
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Ike, need to come to TX to burn leaves, as they will be fallen off the trees from the drought.
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788. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
just go burn some leaves, Ike. Quit complaining.
Which is exactly what I feel like doing.
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785, the IT blog is down the hall on the right
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Quoting aquak9:
just go burn some leaves, Ike. Quit complaining.
Good morning Aqua..I was hoping for a facetious response from you after the link I posted yesterday..I like your snappy comeback lines.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
785. GBlet
Windows has finally come up with Essentials, which works great.I also ditched the standard defrag program as well because all 3 are still based off the originals that are some 30 yrs old. Auslogics is a fantastic defrag program.
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certainly not the usual weather here in Ms....much too nice...59 and crispy...the humidity is so low, the hair is actually still puffy..lol..
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just go burn some leaves, Ike. Quit complaining.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Need rain in TX to ignite this blog
I hope you get some..Texas will soak it up like a thirsty beach towel...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what's THIS???

What ever it is, a gave us a decent downpour here on the plateau this morning. And it was 45 degrees at the time....A bit raw for middle or late May...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
Need rain in TX to ignite this blog
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779. IKE
Need an invest in the ATL to ignite a dull blog. I don't see anything based on the GFS and ECMWF in the next 10 days.
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Thanks Dr. Masters, for posting the great river flow map and historical map of flow paths. They are beautiful and useful. I had no idea the Ohio was 10x larger than the Mississippi at their confluence in 1958. I wonder what that ratio is now.

Are there live webcams at the structures they just opened on the Achafalaya?
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Made it up and had a sweet separation.
Heaters doing great.
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Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1540
Quoting Hurrykane:


Most likely...no.



It will probably be very warm neutral.
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Good morning everyone. Well, yesterday when that front moved through the Keys, I was very hopeful that we would get some rain. Had clouds, thunder, cooler air, and 15 drops of rain. Then the sun came out. So disappointing. So BahaHurican, don't get your hopes up. I can't wait for one of our frog strangling downpours. I will be dancing in the street, until I have to dog paddle:)
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Bah... I missed the shuttle launch... booo...
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
After using McAfee, Norton, and Black Ice, and still being hacked, I installed Kaspersky Internet Security and Spybot S&D.
Have been hacker and virus free for three years now.
14 attempts have been made, none of them managed to get past Kaspersky.
Only one small inconvenience, their automatic cookie deletion program,
which causes you to have to log back in to some of your sites after the program wipes them all out. :)
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Quoting IKE:
I'm up.

53.8 my morning low.

64 here, going to be 86 F. Actually not going to be 90 today. Ever since that front came through last thursday weve been cooler than we have in the weeks past. Still about to warm up...
GOOD NEWS FOR TEXAS 4 days of Chances of rain.
Austin, Texas
Today: 86F, Partly Cloudy
Tuesday: 90F, Partly Cloudy
Wednesday: 88F, Partly Cloudy
Thursday: 85F, Scattered T-Storms/ 40%
Friday: 90F, Isolated T-Storms/ 30%
Saturday: 90F, Isolated T-Storms/ 30%
Sunday: 92F, Isolated T-Storms/ 30%
Monday: 94F, Partly Cloudy
Tuesday: 94F, Partly Cloudy
Wednesday: 93F, Sunny
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Good Morning.
Still under high overcast here this morning.
Last night was hot and sticky, and it looks to be a day like that.
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Finally some rain here in Naples; the airport received 1.27", which isn't necessarily a lot, but it's nearly as much as we had received since March 1, so we'll take it. Of course, we're still down 5.38" since 1/1, and 10.39" since 10/1. But rainy season will start any day now...

Temp-wise, we're supposed to reach 65 for each of the next two nights (after hitting 67 last evening, the coolest we've been since April 6). The last time we reached 65 was March 24. Not to worry, though; by Friday we'll be back in the upper 80s/low 90s, with lows into the mid 70s.

So far as AV software is concerned, I'll say what I always say: stay away from Norton and McAfee. Their software is effective, but far from efficient, as both are bloated resource hogs. I like AVG and Avast, with a better liking for the latter. If you look at a list of running processes with Norton or McAfee installed, you'll see lots of CPU time, disk activity, and memory being devoted to them--something that is definitely not the case with Avast or AVG.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
764. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN
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Good morning.Another active afternoon is on tap for Puerto Rico.Anything from the models about tropical development in EPAC or Atlantic?

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS 90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS 76 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 65 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 76 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
67 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 75 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS
RANGING TO 68 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14883
761. IKE
I'm up.

53.8 my morning low.
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Geez, even Ike isn't up yet.... not used to being the first up in the a.m.

Anyway, I gotta head out....

L8r...
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Quoting superweatherman:
never use McAfee... I am an IT for a School District and we left them because they software never caches anything.. and it uses a lot of computer resources...
(So a TD or TS may develop next week?)
A couple of my different laptops over the years have come packaged with MacAfee, and I always just wipe it off and install Norton instead. I'm not saying NAV is perfect, either, but they seem to have a lot more "on the ball" than Mac does.
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Quoting Chicklit:
I am on hold with McAfee for 25 minutes now.
Evidently, there's been a virus outbreak :(
I made the mistake of opening an email sent to me by my neice on facebook. oops. It was on my lap top so think this one's safe.
Problem surfaced when I renewed a subscription on the laptop with atm and then my checking account was wiped out. Hoping that since it's sunday the bank will be able to recall the charge. ugh.
Wow, chick. I just read about that Facebook problem. Seems to me the worst virus outbreaks we've had lately have come from FB.... makes me reluctant to use FB on both computers....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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