Mississippi River flood of 2011 already a $2 billion disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:33 PM GMT on May 12, 2011

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The Mississippi River continues to rise to heights never seen before along its course through the states of Mississippi and Louisiana. At Natchez, Mississippi, the river has already hit 59 feet, breaking the previous all-time record of 58 feet set in the great 1937 flood. The river is expected to keep rising at Natchez until May 21, when a crest of 64 feet--a full six feet above the previous all-time record--is expected. Record crests are also expected downstream from Natchez, at Red River Landing and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on May 22. Fortunately, the levee system on the Lower Mississippi constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers is built to withstand a greater than 1-in-500 year flood, and this flood is "only" a 1-in-100 to 1-in-300 year flood. However, flooding on tributaries feeding into the Mississippi is severe in many locations along the Mississippi, since the tremendous volume of water confined behind the levees is backing up into the tributaries. Huge quantities of farmland are being submerged in the great flood, and damages already exceed $2 billion. Rainfall amounts of at most 1.25 inches are expected over the Lower Mississippi River watershed over the next five days, which should prevent flood heights from rising above the current forecast.


Figure 1. A crowd of hundreds gathered to watch Monday as the Army Corps of Engineers opened gates on the Bonnet Carre' Spillway to allow flood waters from the Mississippi River to flow into Lake Pontchartrain. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Damage from flood over $2 billion, could hit $4 billion
Damage from the Mississippi River flood of 2011 is already over $2 billion, and could surpass $4 billion. Among the damages so far, as reported by various media sources:

$500 million to agriculture in Arkansas
$320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee
$800 million to agriculture in Mississippi
$317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri's Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway
$80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana

The Mississippi River flood of 2011 now ranks as the 10th costliest flooding disaster in the U.S. since 1980, according to The National Climatic Data Center Billion Dollar Weather Disasters list. The top ten most expensive U.S. flood disasters since 1980 are:

1) $30.2 billion, Summer 1993 Upper Mississippi and Midwest flooding
2) $15.0 billion, June 2008 Midwest flooding
3) $7.5 billion, May 1995 TX/OK/LA/MS flooding
4) $4.8 billion, 1997 North Dakota Red River flood
5) $4.1 billion, Winter 1995 California flooding
6) $4.0 billion, January 1996 Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, blizzard rain and snow melt flooding
7) $3.9 billion, Winter 1996 - 1997 West Coast flooding
8) $2.3 billion, Winter 1982 - 1983 El NiƱo-related West Coast flooding
9) $2.3 billion, May 2010 Tennessee flood
10) $2 billion, May 2011 Mississippi River flood

With the Morganza Spillway, 35 miles upstream from Baton Rouge, likely to be opened sometime between Friday and Tuesday, hundreds of millions more in damage will occur along the Atchafalaya River basin, which will take up to 300,000 cubic feet per second of water out of the Mississippi and funnel it down to the Gulf of Mexico. About 22,500 people and 11,000 structures will be affected by some flooding, according to Governor Jindal of Louisiana. Also of concern is the impact all the fresh water flows from planned diversions of the Mississippi into salt water oyster beds. According to nola.com, fresh water kills oysters because it wreaks havoc on their metabolism, preventing them from keeping a saltwater balance. Increased fresh water diversions in 2010, used to keep the Deepwater Horizon oil spill away from the coast, contributed to a 50% drop in oyster harvests in 2010 compared to 2009. The huge flow of fertilizer-laden fresh water into the Gulf of Mexico is also expected to create a record-size low-oxygen "dead zone" along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. This year's dead zone could be as much as 20 percent greater than the record set in 2002, said Louisiana State University marine biologist Eugene Turner in an article published by nola.com. That year, the low oxygen area stretched over 8,500 square miles, an area the size of New Jersey. Dead zones are due to low oxygen level caused by blooms of algae that feed off all the fertilizers washed off of the farms in the Midwest by the Mississippi River.

A record number of billion-dollar weather disasters for so early in the year
The U.S. has already had five weather disasters costing more than a billion dollars this year, which has set a record for the most number of such disasters so early in the year. We've already beat the total for billion-dollar weather disaster for all of 2010 (three), and with hurricane season still to come, this year has a chance of beating 2008's record of nine such disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1 - $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.7 - $5.5 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($2+ billion)

Losses from the on-going Texas drought and wildfires are already at $180 million, and this is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster by the time all the agricultural losses are tallied.

Good links to follow the flood:
Summary forecast of all crests on Lower Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
Wundermap for Vicksburg, MS with USGS River overlay turned on.
National Weather Service "May 2011 Mississippi River Flood" web page

Jeff Masters

2011 Mississippi River (tkeith)
2011 Mississippi River

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586. ericbooth1926
2:35 AM GMT on May 19, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
storm forent
south
Member Since: October 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
585. nrtiwlnvragn
5:22 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11251
584. Levi32
5:18 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
The monsoon trough is becoming active now, but is waiting for the current trough extending down into the Caribbean to lift out. It will soon, but another will immediately take its place, but farther west. The stream of moisture currently flowing over Puerto Rico and the lesser Antilles will then be redirected farther west, following the area of upper divergence. After this 2nd trough lifts out, the door may open for fun and games in the tropics.



(I'll try to add coastlines to this loop at some point lol)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
583. RastaSteve
5:06 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S....

...ERN U.S...

BROAD ZONE OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD REGIONS EAST OF
THE MS RIVER AS ERN DAKOTAS LOW DROPS SOUTH FORCING TN VALLEY TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM TO A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL KY SWD ALONG THE AL/GA
BORDER AT 15/00Z. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...H5 FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30KT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF GA/NRN FL
RESULTING IN SFC-6KM VALUES MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL UPDRAFT CLUSTERS. IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE NOTED THROUGH MID DAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR STATES
OF AL/GA/FL INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT
FOR NUMEROUS ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUXTAPOSE ITSELF WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AS A
RESULT...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE
WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD AID INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TSTMS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

OF SOME CONCERN IS THE PROSPECT FOR VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN A FLOW REGIME
THAT WOULD SEEMINGLY SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. WITH
H5 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL TO MINUS 12C THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBS FOR
THIS REGION BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT
.

FARTHER NORTH...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS...NWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS ZONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN
REGIONS FARTHER SOUTH AS SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 500 J/KG AS
OPPOSED TO VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG NEAR THE GULF COAST OF FL.
FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBS FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
Member Since: March 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 885
582. Patrap
5:00 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Maybe we should send out the "Planetary Distress" Signal Via the Federation Main Dish in Australia?


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
581. jeffs713
5:00 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting alfabob:

Link

Yeah, I have that... I was looking for a link to save (for reference), without having to manually cut/paste it, and such.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
580. alfabob
4:57 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
Does anyone have the checklist used in regards to scoring a system whether it merits a TCFA?

Link According to the list it should have quite the amount of points.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
579. jeffs713
4:49 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Does anyone have the checklist used in regards to scoring a system whether it merits a TCFA?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
578. alfabob
4:46 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
569. Where do you see "warm-core convection"? I see popup storms around a low-pressure center - popup storms that don't sustain themselves, or grow in size.

As for "no front", there is still an occluded front stretching off around the northern half.

Also, 850mb winds in a developing system frequently do not correspond to surface winds.

And finally... what would the NHC name it as? A STD/STS? or TS Arlene? Beyond that, what would be the point? Making you feel better?

Sub-tropical storms are not suppose to have sustained convection, and model consensus says it went slightly warm core starting a day or 2 ago. That occluded front is also no longer there as seen on surface analysis, although I think they had it wrong even before they moved it; as the front was more to the north to begin with. Surface winds were being measured at 30 - almost 40 kts (recorded from a buoy) and that was far away from the higher winds. Prior to today 850mb winds were close to 60kts in some regions, I'm sure this translates to STS on the surface. The other storm it had merged with should have been at least a depression, although I think it also hit STS status before it was absorbed. I would like NHC to name storms which fully meet their requirements or to remove subtropical storms from their database and to change the rule back to the way it was. There will be an increase in sub-tropical storms in the future from SST creeping northward, it's bad science not to label them just because they are becoming more common.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
577. hydrus
4:45 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting iahishome:


Interesting spin there off of the delta... I guess that's just the low pressure system that actually gave Houston some rain yesterday? Here's hoping we don't get too much rain over "The River" and it's watershed today.
It was probably a meso-low..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
576. Waltanater
4:44 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Here comes Waterworld! Flood baby, flood! :)
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
575. iahishome
4:41 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting Patrap:


Interesting spin there off of the delta... I guess that's just the low pressure system that actually gave Houston some rain yesterday? Here's hoping we don't get too much rain over "The River" and it's watershed today.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 501
574. jeffs713
4:36 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
569. Where do you see "warm-core convection"? I see popup storms around a low-pressure center - popup storms that don't sustain themselves, or grow in size.

Also, 850mb winds in a developing system frequently do not correspond to surface winds.

And finally... what would the NHC name it as? A STD/STS? or TS Arlene? Beyond that, what would be the point? Making you feel better?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
573. Skyepony (Mod)
4:36 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 38618
570. hydrus
4:30 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting SQUAWK:
You guys have the wrong chart. You need the new one.

Cat-5 on or about May-20.?...:0
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
569. alfabob
4:29 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Not attached to a front, closed circulation, warm-core convection and 35-50kt 850mb winds... NHC must still be on vacation. Definition of sub-tropical Link
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
568. Patrap
4:22 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
567. SQUAWK
4:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
The peak between May 10 and June 1 is way too short. It needs to be equal with, or taller than the peak around September 10.


Next year. The update for October thru December is not in yet.
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
566. jeffs713
4:19 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting SQUAWK:
You guys have the wrong chart. You need the new one.

The peak between May 10 and June 1 is way too short. It needs to be equal with, or taller than the peak around September 10.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
565. TampaTom
4:18 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Feel its power


We are all DOOM!
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
564. SQUAWK
4:16 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
You guys have the wrong chart. You need the new one.

Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
563. MTWX
4:15 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Afternoon all!! Been a wet one here this morning in MS, looking toward the afternoon hail threat, hope it doesn't get too rediculious!!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
562. HomoLibrarius
4:03 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
I am reviewing weather related books and movies on my blog. The first review is of "The Perfect Storm". Please stop by if you like. Thank you.
Member Since: April 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
561. hydrus
3:56 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
I say face the monitor towards the SE FL coast, as that is where most wishcasting tries to turn storms...
Lol...That area will get whacked soon enough..Large and intense storms luv S.E.Florida and its P-warm Gulf Stream..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
560. IceCoast
3:56 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Not exactly blog related, but I found it interesting that a golf ball sized rock, traveling at 1,000 mph, can create such a powerful sonic boom.

Big Virginia Boom Likely a Meteor
Link
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
559. jeffs713
3:53 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
I say face the monitor towards the SE FL coast, as that is where most wishcasting tries to turn storms...
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
558. hydrus
3:52 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


REVERAND!

...actually, I suppose facing it to the West would be more appropriate.
Actually East and west are appropriate..Many faiths and sects worship the rising sun..This has been a religious, spiritual rite for thousands of years and will continue for thousands more...Just my harmless opinion..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
556. IKE
3:43 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
"""A chart is a graphical representation of data, in which "the data is represented by symbols, such as bars in a bar chart, lines in a line chart, or slices in a pie chart".[1] A chart can represent tabular numeric data, functions or some kinds of qualitative structures.
The term "chart" as a graphical representation of data has multiple meaning
  • A data chart is a type of diagram or graph,that organizes and represents a set of numerical or qualitative data.
  • Maps that are adorned with extra information for some specific purpose are often known as charts, such as a nautical chart or aeronautical chart.
  • Other domain specific constructs are sometimes called charts, such as the chord chart in music notation or a record chart for album popularity."""....

from Wikipedia.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
555. hydrus
3:40 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


I turn my monitor to the East everytime it is posted.
Yes,..YES....Not only is the Chart Gospel,.....Itsa shrine for the weather faithful to worship, pray and kowtow to....Thank yoooo Destin Jeff. Now I lay me down to sleep.... I pray to Chart my soul to keep.... And if I die before I wake.... I pray to Chart my soul to take...Chart bless Mom...Chart bless Dad......:0
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
554. aspectre
3:35 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
540 CanesfanatUT "No official decision on Morganza?!?! What do you folks think is going on?
I'm pretty shocked the commission hasn't said yay/nay as NO will be very close to the top of the levee's.
Are they worried they may not be able to close Morganza??
"

Nah, considering the 100billion or so federal taxpayer dollars that Mississippi and Louisiana politicians got to split amongst their wealthiest citizens due to Katrina (while getting rid of "no account po' folks sittin' on valuable real estate" for developers), they're just waiting on the bribes...errr...campaign contributions to pour in.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
553. HomoLibrarius
3:30 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
No, I do not wish more people had avatars like mine. Again, my meaning is misconstrude. That statement was in reference to the avatar that knocked me out, in a good way. Oh, nevermind.
Member Since: April 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
551. RastaSteve
3:25 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting HomoLibrarius:
In fact, I wish more people on here had avatars like that.


I have to admit everytime I see yours I laugh. Looks like on of the guys from the movie Hang Over.
Member Since: March 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 885
550. IKE
3:23 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Gotta love ~the chart....rain getting closer....woohoo.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
549. HomoLibrarius
3:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
In fact, I wish more people on here had avatars like that.
Member Since: April 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
548. hydrus
3:20 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


I love that I no longer have to post The Chart in order for it to be a punch-line ... but I know I will at some point.

I worked hard all last-season establishing that thing as the joke it has become. And I like seeing so many people enjoying it now. Long-live The Chart!
Feel its power
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
547. aspectre
3:20 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
530 RitaEvac "Ouch" [local forecast maps]

"Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice."
At least ya don't hafta worry about 40days and 40nights...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
546. RitaEvac
3:19 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9645
545. HomoLibrarius
3:18 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Sorry, I did not communicate that accurately. The avatar affected me in a good way. I am not dissing it.
Member Since: April 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
544. RastaSteve
3:17 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


What the hell yours? looks like the goof off saturday night live acting like that monkey


I agree! Looks like a naked APE with a pink paddle. LOL
Member Since: March 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 885
543. RitaEvac
3:14 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting HomoLibrarius:
Speaking of being shocked, someone's avatar practically knocked me out.


What the hell is yours? looks like the goof off saturday night live acting like that monkey.

Bah! Bah!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9645
542. HomoLibrarius
3:11 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Speaking of being shocked, someone's avatar practically knocked me out.
Member Since: April 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
540. CanesfanatUT
3:05 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
No official decision on Morganza?!?! What do you folks think is going on?

I'm pretty shocked the commission hasn't said yay/nay as NO will be very close to the top of the levee's.

Are they worried they may not be able to close Morganza??
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
539. jeffs713
3:03 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting bluheelrtx:
In Hockley (extreme northwest Harris county), I recorded 1.1 inches on two separate guages and inside the truck.


Hrm... since there was 0.95 in Tomball (about 3 miles from my house), my estimate may not be terribly far off... (DW Hooks airport, which is about 2 miles to my east, got a whopping 0.08 inches, so their gauge is really off)

Also, after polling the 5 nearest PWS, here are the totals I get for yesterday.

.37
.52
.59
.39
.81

The best part... the .37 and .52 are right next to each other, as are the .59 and .39 (the latter two are on the same street).

I'm going to stick with .6, and call it a day.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
538. aquak9
2:59 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting emcf30:
You can get the 4" guage sent to you from Cocorahs for $25.


Or the 13" one from RainmanWeather for around $25-$30. Tell'm you came from WU, and get a better discount.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26246
537. RastaSteve
2:54 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting IKE:
I'm stormW-casting.....along with

~The Chart.....




Ridge Pumping. LOL!
Member Since: March 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 885
536. beell
2:54 PM GMT on May 13, 2011
Quoting bluheelrtx:
In Hockley (extreme northwest Harris county), I recorded 1.1 inches on two separate guages and inside the truck.


Oops!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16856

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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