Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Laredo, Texas (Airport)
106 °F Clear
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 60 °F
Wind: 21 mph from the SE

Quoting Levi32:


2010 does not seem like a good analog year, considering that it came off of an El Nino with a much greater amount of heat content in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere across the worldwide tropics.

Also, since two back-to-back hurricane seasons are almost never similar (except sometimes 2nd- and 3rd-year ENSO events), last year naturally doesn't seem like the best choice.

I agree. Those years where from a hurricane prediction sight. I have not had time to research data that would help me in estimating the number of storms this year. I do believe it will be active, and there will be more than one U.S. landfall. Slow and erratic moving storms might occur. In neutral years, the steering currents seem a bit weaker to me, leaving storms meander a bit. jmo

Drought getting ready to start a whole new level now, summer heat banging down door. I can only pray for a tropical storm in June to quench the dead, parched, stifling, landscape with water some day.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Drought getting ready to start a whole new level now, summer heat banging down door. I can only pray for a tropical storm in June to quench the dead, parched, stifling, landscape with water some day.

This would be very helpful. To far out in time for sure.

OMG! if only this could happen

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TROPICAL STORM BEBENG (AERE)
5:00 AM PhST May 10 2011
====================================

Tropical Storm "BEBENG" " is moving away from the country in a north northeast direction.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Bebeng (AERE) located at 19.5°N 122.9°E or 120 km southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 9 knots.

Storm Signal #1
==============

Luzon Region
------------
1.Cagayan
2.Apayao
3.Batanes
4.Babuyan
5.Calayan

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Tropical Storm "Bebeng" is expected to bring rains over the western section of Luzon. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.

Quoting hurricane23:
Here are my numbers for this season 17/10/4 (which includes 1 Cat 5), and 180% ACE. With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore,I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was a the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

That is a good in brief discussion of what the upcomming season may look like that I agree with. How do you see the NE Caribbean in terms of potential strikes as I live in one of the islands? (PR) I think it depends on the NAO right?

By controlling the position of the Azores high, the NAO also influences the direction of general storm paths for major North Atlantic tropical cyclones: a position of the Azores high farther to the south tends to force storms into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas a northern position allows them to track up the North American Atlantic Coast.[2]

As paleotempestological research has shown, few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000–1400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3–5 times.Totally not wiki ;)

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is a good in brief discussion of what the upcomming season may look like that I agree with. How do you see the NE Caribbean in terms of potential strikes as I live in one of the islands? PR) I think it depends of the NAO right?

PR gets hit every 3 to 4 years, so we should expect something this year.

Quoting hurricane23:
Here are my numbers for this season 17/10/4 (which includes 1 Cat 5), and 180% ACE. With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore,I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was a the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

Couldn't agree more, my numbers are the same as yours with the exception that I think we'll see one more major.

Quoting Gearsts:
By controlling the position of the Azores high, the NAO also influences the direction of general storm paths for major North Atlantic tropical cyclones: a position of the Azores high farther to the south tends to force storms into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas a northern position allows them to track up the North American Atlantic Coast.[2]

As paleotempestological research has shown, few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000–1400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3–5 times.Totally not wiki ;)

paleowhat...:)

Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
G'evening, all; perfect timing I see, too, the elite bloggers are all on, ^_^.

Yep, we are.

heheheheh

Quoting hydrus:
paleowhat...:)

Yeah!
That's 5 four-letter words strung together.
Disgraceful!
:):) Good one though.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Couldn't agree more, my numbers are the same as yours with the exception that I think we'll see one more major.

15/9/2.Where is that shear graph that has been posted here in past entries?

Quoting Gearsts:
PR gets hit every 3 to 4 years, so we should expect something this year.

The last time they took a direct hit was Georges in 98. So they have had a nice lull.

Quoting hydrus:
The last time they took a direct hit was Georges in 98. So they have had a nice lull.

2004 Jeanne and 2007 sub tropical storm Olga

I can see the U.S not being so lucky this season. We might see a few hurricane landfalls possibly one major hurricane landfall.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Drought getting ready to start a whole new level now, summer heat banging down door. I can only pray for a tropical storm in June to quench the dead, parched, stifling, landscape with water some day.

OH, I so agree :O)

Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
Thanks for bringing the El Nino conspiracies to an end in terms of this year's upcoming hurricane season, Levi. Cough, cough, ''SkyPony'', cough, cough! People need to accept the fact that this year's season is gonna take place under neutral conditions, ^_^. Which should equate to a severe hurricane season, =). You're always the voice of reason when you speak in here, and for that, I appreciate you, my friend....

I fear that our region of the world is in for a tropical beating...Naturally I hope that it does not happen..Some of the necessary factors for such an event seem to be coming together.

Quoting Gearsts:
2004 Jeanne and 2007 sub tropical storm Olga

My bad..I meant cat-1 or higher.

Quoting Gearsts:
15/9/2.Where is that shear graph that has been posted here in past entries?

CIMSS?

Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
You're def. part of that list as well, Pottery! BTW, how's everything down there by the ABC islands tonight? Getting ready for the season, I'd presume?

Yes Indeed.
While I have no idea what to expect this season, I am assuming for the worst, and hoping for the best. For everyone.
It has been a very peculiar DrySeason with plenty of rain.
I expect we will get a very wet RainySeason, which will mean floods and landslides if that happens.
I am looking at the ITCZ, and the moisture across the Trop. Atl. and the relative lack of Sahara Dust, SST's etc.
The combination of those things (and others of course) is how I forecast the rainy season here.
Looks to be a wet one coming....

"Its getting Hot! Hot! Hot!"

Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
G'evening, all; perfect timing I see, too, the elite bloggers are all on, ^_^.

I haven't been on in months.
I see I came back at the perfect time.:)

Quoting hydrus:
My bad..I meant cat-1 or higher.

Oh ok ^^

Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:


Really? May you please further elaborate upon that, Hydrus? I'd appreciate it. I know that your not trying to be an alarmist or anything like that. But people need to know, since the season is now about 3 weeks away.

I am the furthest thing from a doomcaster, please believe that. I have not fully researched the data that is in from last year. I have not had time to finish examining the conditions that are out there right now. I will tell you that neutral years seem to have more landfalls. From 1900 to 1998, there were 63 major hurricanes striking the U.S., 5 during El Niño, 37 during neutral conditions, and 22 during La Nina. Those numbers are at the very least concerning. I do realize however that statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
CIMSS?

Was a graph for the average shear for each month :(

Quoting hurricanealley:
"Its getting Hot! Hot! Hot!"

Is there 1 from last month same day to compared?

Quoting RastaSteve:
It also appears with neutral conditions coming that the gulf coast states and including FL are in for a very wet summer that could last well into October. As some have said we really haven't had nuetral conditions in quite some time. The bad side is some of this rain will be associated with tropical systems.

neutral years usually do means it gets very active in Florida.

As far as the near term,I would expect a sea breeze storm regime developing later this week into the weekend. Computer outputs show PW's near 1.75 later in the period and that combined with cold air aloft should lead to some sea breeze storms. Nothing widespread it appears right now. Hopefully that will change, a wet period would be great. But even if its just a few afternoon storms that's alright, we'll take it.



The one thing is though, computers models also show a front sagging into the area at the end of the period. Lets hope it stalls to the north to keep the dry air away and allow moisture to build more into next week.

Quoting Gearsts:
Was a graph for the average shear for each month :(

I know which one you're talking about, I need to look through my 250+ bookmarks though, lol.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know which one you're talking about, I need to look through my 250+ bookmarks though, lol.

lol

Quoting Gearsts:
By controlling the position of the Azores high, the NAO also influences the direction of general storm paths for major North Atlantic tropical cyclones: a position of the Azores high farther to the south tends to force storms into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas a northern position allows them to track up the North American Atlantic Coast.[2]

As paleotempestological research has shown, few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000%u20131400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3%u20135 times.Totally not wiki ;)

Wow, I learned a new word today =)

Paleotempestology is the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. The term was coined by Kerry Emanuel.LOL

Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
G'evening, all; perfect timing I see, too, the elite bloggers are all on, ^_^.

hey look its JFV and you been reported

LinkO,O

Quoting Tazmanian:





hey look its JFV and you been reported

Oh man not again :(
The season hasn't even started yet:(

i say some this dont get it when some banneds you this dont keep comeing back with new IDs

Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh man not again :(
The season hasn't even started yet:(

yup JFV is back with yet other name


and you no what i find that drive me nuts when some one bannds you you this dont keep comeing back on with new IDs too bypass your banned it even in the rules

if i was the Admin of this site if you got in a banned be for i mean the kind of banned you can no longer post on the blog site and you come back with a new ID you be IP banned for some in

Quoting cat5hurricane:

How do you know it's really who you say it is?

watch the way he talks and all ways look at the end of his words he likes puting this , ^_^.

Dr. Masters says that "the great Mississippi flood of 2011 will give the Old River Control Structure its most severe test ever."

That statement requires an apples and oranges comparison. A lot of changes have been made to the ORCS since 1973. If they have desired effect, this test should be less severe actually. In 1973 the structure was in danger of collapsing. Hopefully such a dangerous situation will not come to pass, and the structure's foundations will remain secure.