Record floods on Mississippi River, Lake Champlain; 3rd EF-5 tornado verified

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on May 06, 2011

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The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois continues to fall today, with a level of 59.3', 2.5' below the all-time peak of 61.8' set on Monday night. On Monday night, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to intentionally destroy a levee at Birds Point on the west bank of the Mississippi, just downstream from Cairo, Illinois, in order to relieve pressure on the levees in Cairo and save that city from a billion-dollar levee breach. The destruction of the Birds Point levee also helped slow the rise of the Mississippi River just south of its confluence with the Ohio River, but the river is still rising slowly, and has now set all-time records at New Madrid, Missouri, Tiptonville, Tennessee, and Caruthersville, Missouri--a 70-mile stretch of river downstream from Cairo. Currently, the Mississippi is expected to reach its 2nd highest level on record at Memphis on May 10, cresting at 48.0'. The all-time record at Memphis occurred during the great flood of 1937, when the river hit 48.7'. Downstream from Memphis, flood waters pouring in from the Arkansas River, Yazoo River, and other tributaries are expected to swell the Mississippi high enough to beat the all-time record at Vicksburg, Mississippi by 1.3' on May 20, and smash the all-time record at Natchez, Mississippi by six feet on May 22, and by 3.2 feet at Red River Landing on May 23. Red River Landing is the site of the Old River Control Structure, the Army Corps' massive engineering structure that keeps the Mississippi River from carving a new path to the Gulf of Mexico. I'll have a detailed post talking about the Old River Control Structure next week. Its failure would be a serious blow to the U.S. economy, and the great Mississippi flood of 2011 will give the Old River Control Structure its most severe test ever. Also of concern is the forecast for the Mississippi to crest at 19.5 feet in New Orleans on May 24. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet--that is not much breathing room. Fortunately, only 0.5 - 1.5 inches of rain are expected over the Missouri/Illinois region over the next five days, which should not raise flood heights significantly.

Good links to follow the flood:
Summary forecast of all crests on Lower Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
Wundermap for Cairo, IL with USGS River overlay turned on.
National Weather Service "May 2011 Mississippi River Flood" web page


Figure 1. Flooding of the farmland along the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway due to the intentional destruction of a levee along the west bank of the Mississippi River in Southeast Missouri is obvious in this pair of before and after photos. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Lake Champlain hits highest level since 1869; record flooding in Canada
The Governor of Vermont declared a state of emergency yesterday in Vermont due to flooding along Lake Champlain. Heavy rains over the past ten days, combined with snow melt have combined to push the lake ot three feet above flood stage, and the lake has now broken its previous record high, set in 1869. The flooding has caused numerous road closures but no evacuations in the U.S. The story is different in Quebec, Canada, where flood waters from Lake Champlain coursing down the Richelieu River have created a 150-year flood, forcing the evacuation of 1,000 people and the flooding of 3,000 homes and businesses in the Richelieu Valley, just south of Montreal. The lake level is expected to crest Saturday morning, then slowly fall. Lake Champlain is 120 miles long with nearly 600 miles of shoreline, making it the sixth largest natural lake in the U.S., trailing only the Great Lakes in size.


Figure 2. Five to eight inches of precipitation has fallen over much of the Lake Champlain watershed over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

A third tornado from the April 27 Super Outbreak rated an EF-5
Yesterday, the Jackson, Mississippi office of the NWS upgraded the violent tornado that hit Neshoba, Kemper, Winston, and Noxubee Counties in the northeast part of the state to EF-5 status, with top winds of 205 mph. This tornado continued into Alabama and had a total path length of 92.3 miles. Three people died in the tornado, which was so powerful that it dug out the ground to a depth of two feet over an area 25 - 50 yards wide and several hundred yards long. This is the third tornado rated EF-5 from the April 27 outbreak; tornadoes that hit Smithville, MS and Hackleburg, AL also received EF-5 ratings.


Figure 3. EF-5 damage from the April 27, 2011 Neshoba tornado in Mississippi. The tornado was so powerful that it dug out the ground to a depth of two feet over an area 25 - 50 yards wide and several hundred yards long. Image credit: NWS.

Rare EF-2 tornado hits New Zealand
A tornado ripped through New Zealand's largest city, Auckland, on Tuesday, killing one person at a shopping mall and injuring at least fourteen others. The damage was rated EF-2, making the tornado one of the strongest in New Zealand's history. Below is some footage of the twister, showing why it is dangerous to be in a car during a tornado. (Note also the clockwise rotation of the tornado--this is the Southern Hemisphere, where storms rotate clockwise.)


Figure 4. Footage of the May 3, 2011 New Zealand tornado that passed through the Auckland suburb of Albany.

I'll have a new post Monday.

Jeff Masters

Flood 2011 Metropolis, IL (MikeShivers)
Market St looking south towards casino. Contrary to what the media makes you think, blowing the levee greatly helped in keeping the waters lower here. It wasn't just about Cairo, it helped a lot of communities. Flood stage is about 39 ft here, currently it is at about 61.5 feet it could have been closer to 65.
Flood 2011 Metropolis, IL
Flood 2011 Metropolis, IL (MikeShivers)
view from atop the casino barge looking north up Ferry St
Flood 2011 Metropolis, IL
Champlain in his Lake (Pedaltwister)
Isle La Motte, VT. St. Anne's Shrine Hey Hetzenwaelder these are more pictures of Lake Champlain at flood stage.
Champlain in his Lake

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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Keeper, what do you see for Texas?
well hopefully nothing too bad
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52200
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52200
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when somethings coming ya will see it from me firsthand


Keeper, what do you see for Texas?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dangit Taz you almost had me jump on the NHC site for a second.. LOL.
when somethings coming ya will see it from me firsthand
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52200
Quoting Chicklit:

Rain for Texas?


Here's hoping that will continue to build...wish we could re-route this coming down the Ms River to them
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Rain for Texas?
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


On the blog...the original shower curtains ??


Yes haha

It's startin' early LOL
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Quoting caneswatch:


He is a very kind person, very witty and humorous too LOL

Other than that, I saw shower curtains last night haha


On the blog...the original shower curtains ??
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Good evening, if you have nothing better to do, would someone please interpret this? I am trying to figure out if the current moisture in EPAC will make it to Texas and hopefully die out before it reaches MS, AL.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
246 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 12Z MON MAY 09 2011 - 12Z FRI MAY 13 2011

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INLAND OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING MEAN LOWS/TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE NE/ERN PAC AND WRN ATLANTIC OFF THE NERN US COAST THAT SANDWICH POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ENERGIES TUCKED BETWEEN FROM THE WRN TO EAST-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK. THESE TYPE OF FLOWS OFTEN PORTEND MAJOR CONTINUITY ISSUES IN THE SPRING AND ARE EVIDENT IN THIS FLOW REGIME...PRIMARILY WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DEPICTION FROM THE WRN US OUT ACROSS/INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL US.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SEEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTO DAYS 3-4 MON/TUE. GUIDANCE OFFERS INCREASINGLY VARIED SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK THOUGH... ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEM ENERGIES EJECTING OUT FROM THE WRN US INTO THE E-CENTRAL US. THIS SYSTEM IS ESPECIALLY THREATENING WITH WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED AND TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN INCLUDING HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS OUT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE N-CENTRAL ROCKIES...LEADING INTO CENTRAL US CYCLOGENESIS/ FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE FUELED CONVECTIVE INFLOW WITH TIME. SPC INDICATES THAT SRN PLAINS DRYLINE FOCUSING STORMS BY TUE/WED MAY BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LIMITED SUPPORT AND CONTINUITY FROM EVEN THEIR OWN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL PREDICTABILITY NEXT WED-FRI. MEASURED LESS SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED/MORE PROGRESSIVE GENERAL SYSTEM TRENDS FROM TODAYS 00/12 UTC GUIDANCE OVER THE LOWER 48 SEEMS IN CONTRAST TO THE OVERALL BLOCKY FLOW NATURE TO A DEGREE.

ACCORDINGLY...HPC FINAL PROGS STILL SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY DAYS 3/4 AND ACCEPTANCE OF MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRENDS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IS MORE LIMITED. THESE RESULTANT HPC PROGS BY DAYS 6/7 THU/FRI REMAIN CLOSEST TO ABOUT A HALF DAY SLOWER VERSION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THESE HPC SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ARE ON THE SLOWER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL BLOCKY NATURE OF THE FLOW...BUT NOT AT THE EXTREME EDGE OF SOLUTIONS AMID AMPLE UNCERTAINTY.

SCHICHTEL


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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Great, TY Canes..:) you know, when I first starting blogging, after lurking since 2005 , he was the first person to reply and made me feel so welcome....ya never forget a kindness....


He is a very kind person, very witty and humorous too LOL

Other than that, I saw shower curtains last night haha
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134. xcool
hmmm
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Quoting caneswatch:


I talked to him the other day. He's been busy, he should be back soon.


Great, TY Canes..:) you know, when I first starting blogging, after lurking since 2005 , he was the first person to reply and made me feel so welcome....ya never forget a kindness....
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Please don't insult me like that. 4chan is only useful for memes. Nothing more. :P


Haha :P
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Quoting caneswatch:


4chan meets WU LOL


Please don't insult me like that. 4chan is only useful for memes. Nothing more. :P
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Quoting Guysgal:


I miss his intelligence and wit also. It seems that a couple of weeks ago someone accused him of an inappropriate remark and he seemed to take it the wrong way and quit posting or at least I haven't seen anymore of his posts. Hopefully he will reappear soon.







Hmmmm.....thinking about that...I sure cannot imagine Grothar making an inappropriate remark, and he's much to sharp to take something the wrong way, IMHO....thank you for posting Guysgal...and here's hoping Grothar will be back soon. He is vital to the popularity of this blog.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Been out of pocket for a few days, and hope all is well with you fellow bloggers. Has anyone see Grothar lately.......beginning to worry about the Gro.....


I talked to him the other day. He's been busy, he should be back soon.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Been out of pocket for a few days, and hope all is well with you fellow bloggers. Has anyone see Grothar lately.......beginning to worry about the Gro.....


I miss his intelligence and wit also. It seems that a couple of weeks ago someone accused him of an inappropriate remark and he seemed to take it the wrong way and quit posting or at least I haven't seen anymore of his posts. Hopefully he will reappear soon.





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Quoting KoritheMan:
inb4 OMG HE'S JFV


4chan meets WU LOL
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126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEBENG
11:00 AM PhST May 7 2011
====================================

Tropical Depression "BEBENG" has maintained its strength as it now moves in northwest direction.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Bebeng located at 12.7°N 126.4°E or 180 km east Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Signal #1
==============

Luzon Region
------------
1.Camarines Sur
2.Camarines Norte
3.Albay
4.Catanduanes
5.Sorsogon
6.Masbate
7.Ticao
8.Burias Islands
9.Polillo Island

Visayas Region
------------
1.Leyte
2.Samar Provinces
3.Biliran Island

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Been out of pocket for a few days, and hope all is well with you fellow bloggers. Has anyone see Grothar lately.......beginning to worry about the Gro.....


Come to think of it, he has been noticeably absent. I wouldn't worry about it just yet, however.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231604
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAS DIMINISHED...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THAT TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.





trollface.jpg
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Well, it's a beautiful starry night in Ms,... and where the heck is everyone on the blog ?.....Know it's a Friday night, but not everyone has a date, I'm sure....lol..
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Been out of pocket for a few days, and hope all is well with you fellow bloggers. Has anyone see Grothar lately.......beginning to worry about the Gro.....
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I remember you though. Are you still in school or are you finished now ?


Finishing, this was my last official day. I will make the best of my summer then head on in to university.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dangit Taz you almost had me jump on the NHC site for a second.. LOL.



LOL



I like massing with you all lol
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Dangit Taz you almost had me jump on the NHC site for a second.. LOL.
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Quoting Bitmap7:


No problem morph it all you want, I am one of the Caribbean fellas, my original name was shikori. I hail from the vicinity of wunderkid and stormwatcher. I don't remember you so I don't expect you to remember me.
I remember you though. Are you still in school or are you finished now ?
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117. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
9:00 AM JST May 7 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 12.7N 126.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 13.7N 125.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting spathy:


Sorry, I was referring to you, now. Bitmap7/ Bit for short.
Do you prefer the whole thing?
A lot of people even cut the y outa my name,anything to shorten things.
Do you remember what your previous WU name was?


No problem morph it all you want, I am one of the Caribbean fellas, my original name was shikori. I hail from the vicinity of wunderkid and stormwatcher. I don't remember you so I don't expect you to remember me.
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levi32 you have WU mail
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Well I can't seem to remember any Bit but I do remember JFV, for now I am neither and we will leave it at that. The name is just something I conjured up while trying to brain storm something cool.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 231604
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAS DIMINISHED...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THAT TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


F5.. F5.. F5.. oh wait, not time for that yet?
No, not yet but still think it is odd. Resting up for hurricane season ?
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JFV where so i can e mail the Admin and get him lock back up
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
TWD has not updated yet.


F5.. F5.. F5.. oh wait, not time for that yet?
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Quoting spathy:


Kinda like this effect?



Basically yeah. Air piles in towards one ocean or another.
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inb4 OMG HE'S JFV
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Hey guys!
I am here for the hurricane season. This is not my first time here. I was here a few years back but abandoned the site. Of late I have started lurking and decided that I needed to return so I made an account. I can see a few guys are still blogging here hopefully, a few more will rear there heads in the season.
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TWD has not updated yet.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Nevertheless, I do understand him. Clearly, it's the weather enthusiast within that is making him wish for such things. There's nothing inherently wrong about that, necessarily, as long as you still maintain your regard and compassion for human life.

What irks me instead, is his seeming inability to provide actual evidence for his claims. Human beings are the only creatures on this planet capable of logical thought processes. Instead of bastardizing that, we should utilize them to their fullest potential.
I agree and he says he works in the Meteorological Office down here but never has an explanation for his thoughts. IDK
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Quoting bappit:

Levi already posted that.


Actually, my post was my own.

Timestamp from JB's post: May 06 7:22 pm EDT

My post: 13. Levi32 9:05 AM AKDT on May 06, 2011

Which is 1:05pm EDT

I have been speaking about early-season development long before JB started to.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I didn't quite understand the end. He said the warm PDO of 2005 "added heat to the atmosphere" and explained the horseshoe patterns of cold/warm water in the Pacific. However, what do they actually do? How does a warm PDO adding heat to the atmosphere affect tropical cyclones in the Atlantic?


A warm Pacific competes with a warm Atlantic. When the Pacific is cold but the Atlantic is warm, air is forced to rise more over the Atlantic.

In 2005 though, of course, we had the most active hurricane season ever in the Atlantic, likely because the Atlantic was near-record warmth, and the equatorial Pacific was cooling to neutral.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
All of us down here suffered the same impact but we wish for none whereas I sometimes think he wishes for all.
Nevertheless, I do understand him. Clearly, it's the weather enthusiast within that is making him wish for such things. There's nothing inherently wrong about that, necessarily, as long as you still maintain your regard and compassion for human life.

What irks me instead, is his seeming inability to provide actual evidence for his claims. Human beings are the only creatures on this planet capable of logical thought processes. Instead of bastardizing that, we should utilize them to their fullest potential.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
For a while, I suspected his tendency to make unsubstantiated, baseless claims was the result of a devastating impact from Ivan. Seems I was mistaken.
All of us down here suffered the same impact but we wish for none whereas I sometimes think he wishes for all. The further away from us the better although we do need rain so I can't say I wouldn't welcome a TD or minimal TS.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Cayman's version of JFV has no evidence just wishes.
For a while, I suspected his tendency to make unsubstantiated, baseless claims was the result of a devastating impact from Ivan. Seems I was mistaken.
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Quoting emcf30:
Can someone please tell me how to change my avatar. Thanks


upload a new pic to wunderphotos, and look down at the bottom when you do that- there oughtta be something that says "make this my avatar" or something like that.
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keeper- I really enjoyed the song.
Wish I had a pack'o'chimps to dance with, too.
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Can someone please tell me how to change my avatar. Thanks
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.