Tornadoes, floods, and fires continue to pound U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on April 27, 2011

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The nation's unprecedented April tornado-fest continued full force last night, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 57 tornado reports, 295 cases of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 254 reports of large hail. The 2-day tornado count from this latest huge April tornado outbreak is already 102. With another "high risk" forecast for tornadoes today, the tornado total for this week's outbreak may rival the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak (155 confirmed tornadoes) as the greatest April tornado outbreak in history. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together, and the April preliminary tornado count of 654 is truly stunning. Even adjusting this number downwards 15% (the typical over-count in preliminary tornado reports) yields a probable April tornado total of 550. This easily crushes the previous April tornado record of 267, set in 1974. An average April has "only" 163 tornadoes, so we are already 300% over average for the month, and may approach 400% after today's outbreak. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). One positive note--there has only been one violent EF-4 or stronger tornado this year, despite the fact we've already had about 2/3 of the 1200 tornadoes one typically gets for the entire year. Over the past 20 years, we've averaged 7 violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes per year, so we should have had 4 or 5 of these most dangerous of tornadoes so far this year.


Figure 1. Satellite image of last night's storm at 8pm EDT April 26, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Fortunately, no one was killed in last night's tornado frenzy, but four twisters caused injuries, with 7 injuries in Hesterman, Mississippi, and 3 in Beekman, Louisiana. Over 100 homes were damaged when a tornado struck Edom, Texas, approximately 75 miles East of Dallas. One woman was injured when her mobile home was destroyed. The only killer tornado of the current outbreak occurred on Monday night at 7:30 pm CDT when a 1/2 mile-wide EF-2 tornado struck the small town of Vilonia, Arkansas. Four people died in the town, where 50 - 80 buildings were destroyed. Tornado warnings were issued 30 minutes before the storm hit, contributing to the relatively low loss of life.


Figure 2. Storm chaser video of a tornado yesterday in Ben Wheeler, Texas.

Another very dangerous tornado outbreak expected today
The busiest April in history for tornadoes continues full-force today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued their highest level of severe weather potential, a "High Risk" forecast, for Northern Alabama, Southern Tennessee, and adjoining portions of Georgia and Mississippi. This is the second day in a row, and third time this year, that SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast. The devastating North Carolina tornado outbreak of April 16, which generated 52 confirmed tornadoes that killed 24 people in North Carolina and 2 people in Virginia, was the other "high risk" day. Numerous tornado warnings have already been issued in Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Ohio, and Alabama this morning, but today's main action is expected to erupt late this afternoon as the cold front from a low pressure system currently over Arkansas moves eastwards over the "high risk" area. Strong daytime heating in a very moist, unstable airmass will allow a tremendous amount of energy to build up ahead of the front. The arrival of the cold front will force the warm, moist air upwards, allowing the pent-up energy to burst out and fuel supercell thunderstorms.

Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?


Figure 3. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, April 27, 2011.

Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio River
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.


Figure 4. The latest River Flood Outlook from NOAA shows major flooding is occurring over many of the nation's major rivers.

Extraordinary intentional levee breach of Mississippi River halted by lawsuit
In a sign of just how extreme this flooding situation is, yesterday the Army Corps of Engineers, which is responsible for flood control efforts on the Mississippi River, announced plans to intentionally destroy a levee protecting the west bank of the Mississippi River in Southwest Missouri. The destruction of the levee is intended to relieve pressure on the levees at Cairo, Illinois, at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Cairo is currently under a voluntary evacuation order. The levee to be destroyed, located at Birds Point, is called a "fuse-plug" levee, and was designed to be destroyed in the event of a record flood. The levee protects 132,000 acres of prime farmland along the New Madrid Spillway, which is designed to take 550,000 cubic feet per second of water flow out of the Mississippi and redirect it down a 3 - 10 mile wide, 36 - 56 mile long path along the west side of the Mississippi. An 11-mile long section of the levee upstream at Birds Point, and 5-mile long stretch at the downstream end, are set two feet lower than the surrounding levees and filled with holes to accommodate dynamite. These levees will be destroyed if the Army Corps has its way, but a lawsuit by the state of Missouri is currently blocking the way. The Army Corps has now agreed to wait until Saturday to decide whether or not to blow the levee. The Army Corps' website has an unofficial damage estimate of $100 million for destroying the levees and flooding the New Madrid Spillway. At least 100 people live in the spillway and have been evacuated, and it would likely take many years for the farms to recover after flooding. The levees have been blown and the spillway opened only once before, back during the record flood of 1937.

Midwest deluge enhanced by near-record Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures
The deluge of rain that caused this flood found its genesis in a flow of warm, humid air coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs )in the Gulf of Mexico are currently close to 1 °C above average. Only two Aprils since the 1800s (2002 and 1991) have had April SSTs more than 1 °C above average, so current SSTs are among the highest on record. These warm ocean temperatures helped set record high air temperatures in many locations in Texas yesterday, including Galveston (84°F, a tie with 1898), Del Rio (104°F, old record 103° in 1984), San Angelo (97°F, old record 96° in 1994). Record highs were also set on Monday in Baton Rouge and Shreveport in Louisiana, and in Austin, Mineral Wells, and Cotulla la Salle in Texas. Since this week's storm brought plenty of cloud cover that kept temperatures from setting record highs in many locations, a more telling statistic of how warm this air mass was is the huge number of record high minimum temperature records that were set over the past two days. For example, the minimum temperature reached only 79°F in Brownsville, TX Monday morning, beating the previous record high minimum of 77°F set in 2006. In Texas, Austin, Houston, Port Arthur, Cotulla la Salle, Victoria, College Station, Victoria, Corpus Christi, McAllen, and Brownsville all set record high minimums on Monday, as did New Orleans, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, and Alexandria in Louisiana, as well as Jackson and Tupelo in Mississippi. Since record amounts of water vapor can evaporate into air heated to record warm levels, it is not a surprise that incredible rains and unprecedented floods are resulting from this month's near-record warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 5. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for April 25, 2001. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Fierce winds fan Texas, New Mexico fires
Fierce winds fanned raging fires across eastern New Mexico and Western Texas yesterday, thanks to a powerful flow of air feeding into the Midwestern storm system. Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with humidities less than 10% combined to make yesterday a nightmare fire day for firefighters attempting to control the worst springtime fires in the history of the region. At 3:53 pm MDT yesterday in Carlsbad, New Mexico, the temperature was 87°F, winds were 38 mph gusting to 46, and the humidity was 8%--a perfect storm for extreme fire weather. In Fort Stockton, Texas near the huge Rock House fire, the temperature was 91°F, winds were 35 mph gusting to 44, visibility was reduced to 5 miles due to haze and smoke, and the humidity was 5% at 5:53pm CDT. According to the Interagency Fire Center, wildfires in 2011 have already burned nearly 2.3 million acres in the U.S. This is the greatest acreage on record so early in the year, and is more area than burned all of last year. The largest U.S. acreage to burn since 1960 was the 9.9 million acres that burned in 2007, so we area already 25% of the way to the all-time record fire year--with summer still more than a month away. The fire weather forecast for today is better then yesterday, with winds not expected to blow nearly as strong.


Figure 6. Major wildfires and smoke plumes as visualized using our wundermap with the "fire" layer turned on.

For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.

Jeff Masters

Rare Sight (Freakofnature1)
I haven't seen a storm like this in quite some time. Still no rain in Seguin, Tx. Pic taken in Seguin storm near Martindale.
Rare Sight
Mississippi @ Burlington (BURGuy)
Seating along the shore
Mississippi @ Burlington
Base of Anvil Cloud 4/26/11 (HuskerMama)
Taken within minutes after the storm cell had passed directly overhead.
Base of Anvil Cloud 4/26/11
Southern Lightning (WeatherRose)
This is a shot of a lightning strike associated with some severe storms moving through this evening in Southaven, MS.
Southern Lightning

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City of Toronto
3:48 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 27 APRIL 2011
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
City of Toronto ISSUED

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
SPC Current Convective Watches
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow! A watch with all the probabilities being >95% is unreal. Defiantly an extremely dangerous situation.
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A very sane and welcomed post MrMixon.

and If I may add

"calamity knows no borders,,only men's minds and Maps do"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Dupage Severe Warnings

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
343 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
EASTERN MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
ATHENS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
SWEETWATER...MADISONVILLE...ENGLEWOOD...NIOTA...CO KER CREEK...MOUNT
VERNON...TELLICO PLAINS...PHILADELPHIA...CITICO...TARIFFVILLE...
VONORE...CITICO BEACH AND GREENBACK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Patrick been doing some kind VooDoo or something, acting strange today
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Grothar- I, too, am tired of the idling Banter. And I'm too old to be your mother.
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I can certainly understand why emotions run high around a topic like this (i.e. the man who died in a tent protecting his daughter from a falling tree). From the outside, and with the benefit of hindsight, the accident seems totally preventable. Empathetic folks (especially parents) feel pained to read stories like this and yearn to prevent them.

Every year the Rocky Mountain Rescue Group has to rescue somebody off a high peak during a snow storm because the person was either unaware of the incoming system or they just didn't take it seriously. And every year I shake my head and wonder how they got themselves into that situation. I'm such a weather geek, and so intimately aware of our changeable weather patterns around here that I think it's highly unlikely that I'd ever be in a similar situation.

That said, I have the benefit of living here, meaning if the weather is bad this weekend I can wait until the next. But what about the folks who paid thousands of dollars to plan a trip to Colorado and end up with bad weather the one weekend they're here? I can understand why they might go ahead with their plans to get into the mountains and enjoy their trip. Yes, it's perhaps a bit short-sighted, but despite all the negativity in the world, I think people have a tendency to err towards being optimistic when it comes to the potential dangers from natural disasters. "It won't happen to me."

The bottom line is that stories like the one Pat posted about the man dying in his tent are as old as humanity and we will ALWAYS have stories like that because, well, that's human nature.

Namaste
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RastaSteve:


Hi girl! Did you get any rain yesterday? The reason I ask is because it looked like there was a nice cell over there yesterday afternoon.

Hi Rasta, yes we had a sprinkling.
Still managed to get tennis in about 5 though :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting Patrap:
U betcha sweet bippys



Good Laugh In that one!
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Phascinating stuff...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
261. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
yeah skye....we know.

maybe we all should live underground in a bunker.


or maybe all them folks living in trailers should cut down every pine tree within falling distance to their estates,,


Ill bow to your superior wisdom and tell the family when i attend the funeral.


When I'm living in the forest & weather is going to get as bad as what was expected there I go sleep in a cave, a friend's house or motel. You are always saying be prepared. Same thing when you camp. If there's a lot of lightning don't pitch at the top of a mountain, lotta rain coming get away from the creek, wind~ well avoid the trees. Sorry this is so close to home for you..but alot of people have been dying in campgrounds across the world the last few years needlessly.

People that live in trailers should have a concrete safe place for storms. Those are required in this area of FL in trailer parks & should be everywhere. No need to kill the trees. They weren't in a trailer either. Tents don't stop even small tree limbs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
New Convective Outlook is out considerably early:









SPC AC 271911

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA....ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA...THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA...OHIO...PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...

...A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADOES APPEARS
UNDERWAY...AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

REMNANTS OF THE MORNING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL...JUST EAST OF UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...REMAIN A
COMPLICATING FACTOR CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING. AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRECEDING RAINFALL...COUPLED WITH LATE AFTERNOON INSOLATION AND
MODIFYING LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...PROBABLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO JUSTIFY EXPANDING
MODERATE RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC AND 12Z ECMWF...INDICATE
THAT A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MIGRATES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
...INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS CENTERED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...FROM NEAR ITS CONFLUENCE WITH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE CINCINNATI OH AREA BETWEEN 28/00-06Z.
A 50-70 KT 850 MB JET APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO OHIO BY LATE THIS
EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. GIVEN AT LEAST
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR STRONG /STRAIGHT LINE/
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/27/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH
VALLEY...

...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND SRN OH VALLEY...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS TODAY AS A
POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SFC... A LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NNEWD
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
THIS AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY ORGANIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY
EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY.

CONCERNING THE CURRENT SETUP...A LARGE MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE INTO ERN TN AND NW
GA BY 21Z. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED NEWD INTO THE HIGH RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MCS EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. AS THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP
IMPROVES...THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE AS THE NOSE OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS EWD
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS WILL CREATE LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM ERN MS AND NCNTRL AL
NWD INTO SRN TN. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 600
M2/S2 RANGE SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM COLUMBUS MS EWD TO
BIRMINGHAM AND HUNTSVILLE AL. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
ONGOING MCS WHERE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. AS
SUPERCELLS INITIATE IN ERN MS AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED. A FEW
LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY A VIOLENT TORNADO OR TWO
MAY OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A 45 PERCENT SIG-TOR AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN WCNTRL KY...THE ONGOING MCS
IS HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN NRN LA
AND SRN AR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND
WCNTRL KY BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS AND A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW AR
AND SRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOIST AXIS TO BE LOCATED FROM WEST
OF NASHVILLE NEWD TO NEAR LOUISVILLE WHERE NUMEROUS SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS
THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES EVEN IF DESTABILIZATION IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA AND TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

AS A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH
AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THIS EVENING...A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE CONGEALS AND BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS DEVELOP. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST
AS FAR EAST AS WRN VA ...WRN NC AND WRN SC DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS WHEN A LARGE MCS MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY SHIFT SWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO NRN GA WHERE THE
STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE.

...CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GREAT LAKES WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE JET AXIS...A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING SWD
INTO FAR WRN SC AROUND 06Z. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
NY...PA...VA...NC AND SC WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DUE
TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST
ACROSS VA AND WRN CAROLINAS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat, I'm trying to figure out what all those words have to do with each other, but I'm lost. Only Anthropologist and Skeletor are throwing me.... and I'm pretty sure I don't want to know how they fit in. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
U betcha sweet bippy's Boyz and Gurls

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
.searching in Google

Florida


anthropologist

chads

Severe


Broward

Skeletor

LoL



answer.."tomorrow at noon EDT"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
A lot of idle chatter on the blog today. Aren't there any severe outbreaks to talk about?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

If you are living in a mobile home park, and there is a tornado outbreak forecast, then do not stay in the mobile home and get out ahead of time.
If you are manager at a mobile home park, then it is your responsibility to make sure that everyone is safe.
If you are stuck there because you have no transportation, no tv, nobody looked after you, then you are not stupid, you are unfortunate.
I'm not going to keep belaboring this point.
I feel sorry for people who either don't have access to public safety information or who do not have the resources or people around to help them.
This all started because I said you don't want to be one of those people in the ditch with their hands on their heads.


negative
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting flsky:

Has this pick been "doctored" at all? If not, it's incredible.
Definitely an incredible pic.
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Quoting emcf30:


Cool pic

One of my favorites. It's an old one taken near Clewiston, Florida, back in 1991.
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PAT started all this!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
247. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Let's not forget not everyone chooses to live of the land with candlelight and raising their own food to be planet conservative. Some folks do not have the resources, the time, or the money to have a computer to allow them to hook up online. Not everyone has the same luxeries in life for that.


& some people are just full of excuses.

The guy posted pics to facebook of the campsite not long before the tree went though his tent.. he had internet. He drove his daughter to the campground..he could have drove away.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
235, that's an old pic, from when I was a kid in the early 90s
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Its amazing how quickly a good, relevant, civil discussion can degenerate into abstract personal criticisms and hair-splitting.

Yes, what happened is tragic. Can anything be done about it now? No. Then why the heck are we beating the horse senseless, when we have a major severe outbreak, disastrous drought, and significant flooding occuring - at the same time?
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Well,,,least Friday I'll be in a Large crowd enjoying Jazz Fest,in PERFECT weather..

So Pllllllllllllllllllttttttttt....

LoL


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
CAPTAIN HINDSIGHT STRIKES AGAIN!

On another note, flsky, it appears to be unaltered. Maybe 10 second exposure...
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242. flsky
Quoting emcf30:


Cool pic

Has this pick been "doctored" at all? If not, it's incredible.
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All these stupid kids and teenagers texting and driving, hate to say it, but gonna be a lot of dead kids out there
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238. flsky
Yikes! This is getting nasty. I'll check back in later tonight when everyone calms down.
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Quoting Patrap:
This all started because I said you don't want to be one of those people in the ditch with their hands on their heads.

Id maybe check the posts Dawling,,I made no such statement here...

I said it.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424


Cool pic
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This all started because I said you don't want to be one of those people in the ditch with their hands on their heads.

Id maybe check the posts Dawling,,I made no such statement here...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Some serious competetion going on for the arrogant comment of the day...
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People die everyday for no reason at all, where is your bleeding hearts for those people. The world is overpopulated and nature will take care of it, and that's disposing of careless people and ones who just happen to be in the way.
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Quoting Patrap:
yeah skye....we know.

maybe we all should live underground in a bunker.


or maybe all them folks living in trailers should cut down every pine tree within falling distance to their estates,,


Ill bow to your superior wisdom and tell the family when i attend the funeral.

If you are living in a mobile home park, and there is a tornado outbreak forecast, then do not stay in the mobile home and get out ahead of time.
If you are manager at a mobile home park, then it is your responsibility to make sure that everyone is safe.
If you are stuck there because you have no transportation, no tv, nobody looked after you, then you are not stupid, you are unfortunate.
I'm not going to keep belaboring this point.
I feel sorry for people who either don't have access to public safety information or who do not have the resources or people around to help them.
This all started because I said you don't want to be one of those people in the ditch with their hands on their heads.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Barefoot, many situations, like being on the road as a tornado approaches, can be prevented if people pay attention to what is going on around them and make the necessary adjustments ahead of time.

Bless your heart. You just don't get it.
:)


I don't get what? Ask that little girl's mother how she feels today. He should never have taken that little girl out camping in the first place.
And all of us who are parents identify with his last misery, realizing what he had done, and doing what he could to protect his daughter. It's totally tragic. I get that.
People, particularly adults who are responsible for chlidren need to be smart when there's serious stuff going on around them and pay attention, taking measures ahead of time so you don't get caught having to lie in a ditch with your hands on your head.
That was my only point.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
225. Skyepony (Mod)
Pat~ I've got to agree with Chicklit here.. As someone experienced at tent living that's an avoidable accident. He had internet service & was at a campground. People need to lose that campground sense of security..many are on flood plains & look up before you pitch a tent. So many times I see people pitching a tent under a widow maker. Just cause you pay a few bucks to camp doesn't mean much for your safety.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
Where did the severe for GA go? In my area it used to be a 90% chance of severe t-storms. Now it is a 40% chance of regular t-storms.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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