No new news on Vince or Puerto Rico disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2005

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The low pressure area that formed near Puerto Rico this morning is now north of the island. No increase in organization has happened today, and wind shear remains high enough--20 knots--that no development can occur until Tuesday at the earliest. The low continues to bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands. Most of the global computer models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form from this disturbed area of weather later this week and move north to threaten Bermuda.


Figure 2. Current radar out of Puerto Rico shows some banding developing in association with a low to the north of the island.

Vince
Vince is headed east towards Portugal, and is still holding together in the face of 22 C water temperatures and 30 knots of wind shear. The cold water and wind shear will destroy Vince by tomorrow, before he can hit land. Vince recently passed over a buoy that measured a central pressure of 996.7 mb. Vince's remains will bring heavy rain and 30 mph winds to southern Portugal on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Hurricane Vince at peak strength, Sunday October 9, 17 GMT. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey, CA.

Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains in the 1000 - 2000 range. Most of these deaths occurred in the Lake Atitlan area.

For those of you who want to help out, wunderground member neavilag in Guatemala recommends a donation to the Guatemalan Red Cross:

Intermediary Bank
CITIBANK
399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK N.Y. 10043
U.S.A.
ABA 021000089
SWIFT CITIUS33

Paying institution:
Banco del Cafe, S. A. Guatemala
Account 36009832
swift CAFBGTGC

For final credit to:
Cruz Roja Guatemalteca Acct Number 81-03-44361-0

My next update will be Tuesday at 9:30 am EDT.

Jeff Masters

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160. pbaylis
9:20 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
How interesting. Our Blessed Mother Mary could be drawing our attention to a key apparition location - Fatima, Portugal.
The prophecies of Fatima are still awaiting conclusion.
So, how apt! http://www.fatima.org

Or it could just be an oddball storm.
159. oriondarkwood
2:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
New post by the Doc up, and I let you in on the IPO. I start auctioning stocks on here later today.. (LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
158. guygee
2:09 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
orion - Now you're really on to something! Please let me in on the IPO!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
157. HateHurricanes
2:08 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Orion - I'll take two.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
156. oriondarkwood
2:05 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Oh yea I forgot one item. The best for last

.50 Cal Troll Sniper rifle with smartlink and aimbot support, has upgradable firmware with a wireless connection to download the last troll list via Trolltorrent. Scope has the ability to see thur fake id's, multi-ids (ie two people flaming that are actually the same person), whinning and my favor can blow thur flamewar armor (requires special ammo sold seperatly).

Now with designer cases and stocks..

If you want one please post your credit card information here

(LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
155. oriondarkwood
1:59 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Guygee,

That was not a bright idea, don't you know never put 2 trolls in the same area not matter what the sex they will breed profilicaly (sic). And NEVER EVER feed them after midnite (LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
154. HateHurricanes
1:57 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Orion - I'll take one of each.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
153. guygee
1:53 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Orion -LOL, instant multi-millionaire if you could mane some Troll-Off or Troll-Guns, or Troll-Cages. USENET treid to invent alt.flame as a troll cage, but it didn't work, the buggers just bred in there then spread across the globe.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
152. oriondarkwood
1:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
guygee,

Think I could make some money by selling Troll-Off, Troll-Guns, Troll-Cages, Troll Bait and the Troll Detector 9000?

Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
151. guygee
1:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Lefty and weatherwannabe once had a legitimate beef with each other. Lefty posted big pics, cool for people with wideband access, but for people with dial-up, it made this blog unusable. So links seems like a good compromise. I don't see the big pics anyomore, but as usual on the internet, bad feelings linger on.

These flamewars attract trolls like BS attracts flies. Picture Mr. BoldMAN (?), little troll hiding behind his keyboard, making fun of everyone here. He likes the pointless argument, it gives him a chance to show his "wit", makes him feel, you know, BOLD.

Lefty can seem a little overbearing, but I think that is his enthusiasm showing though. One thing about Lefty, he has his internal ignore list, but he is nice enough to answer you if you address him. weatherwannabe, why not just put lefty on your "internal ignore list"; after all you can just skip reading his posts, as long as he doesn't post any more large images?

And "don't feed the trolls", ignore them and they will be gone in a day or tow.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
150. palmbeacher
1:05 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Kudos Orion.
149. oriondarkwood
1:02 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
weatherwannabe,

I agree with you in part, however you faced with having a general area that would die out when a storm is around (or die out because people prefer this one). Modify this blog so that you can filter out posts based on a personal ingore list (big undertaking). Do what you said in limiting the amount of times a user could post, but how would you make it so a user couldn't simply create a new account and post. Lastly we could leave it along and for better or worse relish the great online community we have.

Ulimately its the good Doc's choice.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
148. oriondarkwood
12:59 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Wake up sniff the coffee, a new day is here. No systems in the pipe so maybe its time for some more random questions

Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
147. weatherwannabe
12:44 PM GMT on October 11, 2005
Dr. Masters, this blog needs a limit on total posts per user per day. I think I speak for many when I say that it gets a little old having to shift through hundreds of the posts a few posters which are utterly irrelavant to the purpose of the blog. Lefty, StormJunk et al we don't need to know or care about your Xbox playing or substance abuse problems. You may not realize this but this is not your personal IM site. Please be respectful of those who are here to dicsuss weather.
145. StormJunkie
7:38 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Lefty?

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
144. StormJunkie
6:27 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Jeff and wannabe are the same person.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
143. StormJunkie
6:26 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
The kettle was not a name caller Jeff.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
142. theboldman
6:25 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Posted By: weatherwannabe at 1:12 PM PDT on October 10, 2005.
anyway, this blog is great for laughs. Lefty sits here all day and night watching every fog bank from Texas to Africa. There is the hourly inevitable "we got a new monster forming" post follwed by hundreds of worthless observations about nonexistent recon and poorly interpreted satellite pics to follow until Masters makes a new professional post that discredits everything for the last 5 hours. Then you all start al over. LOL - I love this blog
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
141. theboldman
6:25 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
well storm g night ill leave this for you to thin kon lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
140. theboldman
6:19 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
but storm what did the kettle call the pot
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
139. theboldman
6:18 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
hey stom so back from work gosh aint it great to be single lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
138. StormJunkie
6:17 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Be nice Jeff.

"circus" = not nice. And anywho that is the pot calling the kettle black.

Nice on Zanzi. Think I had some issues with my cable last night. Digital cable kept on freeze framing and breaking up in to those little squares and stutter talking. Don't think that was all of my problem last night, as I was tired and had played a good bit too, but I think the cable glitch thing was a part of the problem. Hope it is better tonight.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
137. theboldman
6:15 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Posted By: weatherwannabe at 1:12 PM PDT on October 10, 2005.
anyway, this blog is great for laughs. Lefty sits here all day and night watching every fog bank from Texas to Africa. There is the hourly inevitable "we got a new monster forming" post follwed by hundreds of worthless observations about nonexistent recon and poorly interpreted satellite pics to follow until Masters makes a new professional post that discredits everything for the last 5 hours. Then you all start al over. LOL - I love this blog
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
136. theboldman
6:14 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Posted By: weatherwannabe at 1:12 PM PDT on October 10, 2005.
anyway, this blog is great for laughs. Lefty sits here all day and night watching every fog bank from Texas to Africa. There is the hourly inevitable "we got a new monster forming" post follwed by hundreds of worthless observations about nonexistent recon and poorly interpreted satellite pics to follow until Masters makes a new professional post that discredits everything for the last 5 hours. Then you all start al over. LOL - I love this blog
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
135. theboldman
6:07 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
sooo anyine here besides the circus
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
134. theboldman
6:00 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
oh crap leftyy been drinking lol and smoaking 420 lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
133. leftyy420
5:59 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
sj i just got 20kills 4 deaths at zanzibar. and i been drinkinglol. be in the game when u get home
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
132. theboldman
5:52 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
hi junkie
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
131. StormJunkie
5:50 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Be home in about an hour and a half.

Thank goodness. Bad night at work.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
130. StormJunkie
5:31 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Posted By: weatherwannabe at 3:35 AM GMT on October 11, 2005.

next casue nothing will form in the sw carribean for atleast 5-7 days thats why. but thats why i have my opinion and you have urs

I assume the above was a quote from Lefty.

Wannabe,
Are you too stupid to understand what opinion is? And could you have any less common sense?

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
129. mammasleep
5:29 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
WHERE DID EVERYONE GO?
128. theboldman
5:13 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
dang i go and miss all the fun lol keep up the good laughts wannabe prettyeyes and leftyy
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
127. leftyy420
4:39 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
thats a ull
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
126. Hurriphoon
4:29 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
anyone know anything about the circulation well north of Puerto Rico about 28N 67W?
125. Hurriphoon
4:21 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
hello all, tornadoty, I read your blog about Vince hitting Europe, but it looks like maybe it is going to hit Morocco
124. missyjj55
4:18 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Thanks Lefty. The north coast of Jamaica gets the most rain, I had wondered if the trench had any thing to do with it.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 5
123. leftyy420
4:10 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
yeah i know what it is and i think it has little affect on the weather. the hot water in the carribean is quite deep. but not all the way to the sea florr so even if the sea floor was deeper it wouldhave no effect as the important part of the watter column is the first 100-200 meters. which is quite warm in the carribean
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
122. missyjj55
4:07 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Lefty. do you know what the Cayman Trench is? and is it of any importance in the weather in the caribbean?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 5
121. leftyy420
4:00 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
ur welcome prettyeyez
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
120. prttyeyez2002
3:45 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
If I recall "someone" said that this blog needed cleaning.....it needs to start with wannabe....quit being a smart-mouth pain in the a$$ delinquent..you are the reason everyone ignores you.

WAY TO GO LEFTY !!! THANKS FOR THE INFORMATIVE POSTS !
119. leftyy420
3:40 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
lolonce again wannabe i am stating whatall theglobalmodels say and no cyclone forms in the sw carribean for 5-7 days, maybe longer but i am not willing to trust the models more than 5-7 days out. so if i am wrong for stating what the globalmodels say. sue me lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
118. weatherwannabe
3:35 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
next casue nothing will form in the sw carribean for atleast 5-7 days thats why. but thats why i have my opinion and you have urs
117. leftyy420
3:30 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
wannabe what are u talking about. what i just posted was from the 1030 outlook from the nhc.

if ur talking about the pr system ok but i have just been stating what the models ahve been saying. all the global models
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
116. weatherwannabe
3:21 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
well, lefty, I think once again you will be proven wrong. Forecasting is easy just predict the opposite of Lefty. LOL

115. leftyy420
3:16 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
IS CENTERED ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
WARMER GULFSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OR
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... WHICH WOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO
BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
114. tornadoty
3:06 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
I've reinitiated my advisories on Vince:

Link
113. dcw
3:06 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
HUH??? STRENGTHENING???

Alright, who hacked the satellite?
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
112. Zaphod
3:06 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
Vince should be named In-vince-ible instead!

Still no clear picture of the Puerto Rico system?

Like my football picks, I think I'll stick with a long-shot prediction that the system will form further to the S and W than the models guess. Declining shear, a surface low appearing to stretch westward, high surface temps, and ready outflow channels, if I'm reading things right.

But then my wife's pool standing is better than mine......
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
111. Skyepony (Mod)
3:05 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
I found a PR live stream cam but it was down do to the weather:(
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39100
110. cgableshurrycanegal
2:52 AM GMT on October 11, 2005
PR is having disastrous flooding now. I've lived through that flash-flooding when a whole mountainside slid down. It was a no-name system. I wonder if this will be as bad...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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