Invest 91L more organized, but has little time to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on April 22, 2011

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Hurricane season is more than a month away, but we have a tropical disturbance (91L) typical of what one might see in June or November. 91L is spinning over the waters a few hundred miles south of Bermuda, and has improved considerably in organization since yesterday, thanks to a drop in wind shear. The latest SHIPS model output is showing shear of 40 - 55 knots over 91L, but shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is showing lower shear values of 20 - 30 knots over the main circulation center and to 91L's north, where the heaviest thunderstorms are. The system has a warm core at low levels, but a trough of low pressure lies over the storm at upper levels, and this trough is pumping cold, dry air into 91L, making it not completely tropical. One characteristic of subtropical systems like 91L is the presence of the main band of heavy thunderstorms removed several hundred miles from the circulation center, and 91L fits that description. 91L has two centers of circulation competing to be dominant, and this competition is slowing the storm's development. The storm was headed north at 5 - 10 mph early this morning, but that motion has halted, and 91L appears to be moving more south-southwesterly now, away from Bermuda. Sea surface temperatures are 23°C, which are very cold for a tropical storm to form in, but could support development of a subtropical storm.

As 91L moves south today, shear will steadily rise, and the storm likely has only until Friday night before shear grows too high to permit development. NHC is giving 91L a 20% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression, which is a reasonable forecast. There has been only been one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003. The formation of a tropical disturbance at this location this time of year is unusual, but is not a harbinger of a active season ahead. Had this been going on in the Caribbean, that would be a different story.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 91L. Note the two centers of circulation competing to be dominant. I expect the northern center will become dominant.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting beell:
click-able





I feel awful for that region; Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois seemingly get hit every other day.
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Quoting beell:
click-able





The Midwest, Central/Southern Plains, and Southeast have gotten slammed with Severe Weather lately.
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253. beell
click-able



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Nothing in a INVEST is ignored,,all resources combine to watch,log, and cover the System.

Relax..the Season will have many chances to go berserk.

of note,

Smaller 'cone of probability' cuts down on hurricane fear


After the hurricane center checked forecasts against what really happened last year, its margin of error for the five-day forecasts broke all records for accuracy, going back to when the center first began doing the five-day estimate in-house in 2001.

Last year's five-day forecasts were 65 miles better than the 2005-09 average. The three-day forecasts were 14.5 miles better. The one-day forecast was actually worse, by less than a mile, and the 12-hour forecast was off by 2.5 miles compared with the preceding five years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
91L is doing a great job.It fight against SSTs,shear,dry air and is winning.But tomorrow the enemies will change,and fight will be even harder.
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Quoting Chicklit:
If you just start naming storms because they fit a certain critera but are not going to threaten land, then you are setting up a scenario in which naming storms doesn't cause people to start making storm preparations. It's bad enough now with the "hype" systems get when they're actually threatening people and property.


So do we just ignore systems out at sea? Basically that means we are ignoring a one-time meteorological event just so people don't become complacent. Obviously safety is a big issue, but scientific accuracy and reliability is as well.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Yah your right, their decisions just evoke emotions.


If you just start naming storms because they fit a certain critera but are not going to threaten land, then you are setting up a scenario in which naming storms doesn't cause people to start making storm preparations. It's bad enough now with the "hype" systems get when they're actually threatening people and property.
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Oh well.

Made a good run at Arlene.




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Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like us in Florida will get slammed this season.


91L is not a harbinger of the season, Doc says:
"The formation of a tropical disturbance at this location this time of year is unusual, but is not a harbinger of a active season ahead. Had this been going on in the Caribbean, that would be a different story."

Last year we had high SSTs but many systems were battling a ULL. Am sure those along the Yucatan and in north Mexico have a different view of things, but still it could have been a lot worse if one was just basing conditions on one thing.
It's when everything starts to work together (or against us) that things become a problem.
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The second circulation is gone now. It still has a little time, I am on the fence. It still continues to improve with each frame. I am curious to see what it does now that it's not competing.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Update from Foreca:COC found near 25.7N 64.5W,strongest winds near 40-42mph
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236 , "I don't get the bias within the nhc sometimes, junky little low pressures (like Bonnie 2010) can be considered Tropical Storm Strength yet a blatant Subtropical Depression/Storm is given a yellow circle and sent off to the archive a couple days later."

Bonnie met the minimum criteria AND more importantly...
...could have blown up near the DeepwaterHorizon disaster's mitigation&capping operations; which coulda been totally stopped by mere 2metre/~6foot waves. As it was, many of the onshore and offshore mop-up efforts were halted.
Like it or not, how soon a storm becomes declared is dependent on how soon and how hard it can affect people. I think that's only proper.
A storm far offshore gives plenty of time to evaluate how strongly a storm meets designated criteria.
A closer storm doesn't leave forecasters with much margin of error in making such decisions. Better to err on the side of caution.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
91L Facebook Fan Page:

Link


Sammy!!! that's awesome! I am not on Facebook- but if each storm, invest, whatever gets a facebook page, I just might hafta join. Oh now, that is so funny. After the past 10 days of weather horror, I needed something humorous. Add that to Beell's avatar, and I'm smiling.

:)
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sunlinepr

where are your animated maps from, very cool
I am in fish biz in Central America

but here now on SC coast, looks like we will get some surf
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Quoting hydrus:
At the end of the day, they are the masters of each and every systems designation or name. It matters not what our observations are. I remember Bonnie well..Some were angry, and I was chewed out for calling it a very weak system. There may have even been some tears. I felt bad and stopped posting.....not.


Yah your right, their decisions just evoke emotions.
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aspectre- post 230- very eloquent.

I think the world has forgotten about Fukushima.
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Quoting MrstormX:
I don't get the bias within the nhc sometimes, junky little low pressures (like Bonnie 2010) can be considered Tropical Storm Strength yet a blatant Subtropical Depression/Storm is given a yellow circle and sent off to the archive a couple days later.
At the end of the day, they are the masters of each and every systems designation or name. It matters not what our observations are. I remember Bonnie well..Some were angry, and I was chewed out for calling it a very weak system. There may have even been some tears. I felt bad and stopped posting.....not.
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

DISCUSSION FROM APRIL 22/0000 UTC. MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
REMAINS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE FLOW NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AND THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO 60W...WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH
REACHING 18N/20N AS IT CENTERS ON A LOW NEAR 26N 65W. THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 05N/06N...WITH AXIS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA-CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PATTERN
FAVORS A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT
LOW LEVELS...A LOW NEAR 26N 63W EXTENDS A TROUGH TO A COL NEAR 20N
63W...WHERE IT JOINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTH
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION IS BUILDING
ALONG A CONFLUENT ASYMPTOTE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH
ALONG 22N 62W TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE SURGING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A DRY
SLOT OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES SEPARATES THE LATTER
FROM A MOIST TONGUE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

AT UPPER LEVELS...EXPECTING A SLOW EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEGIN TO
FILL LATER THIS EVENING AS IT STARTS TO PULL TO THE EAST. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE IS TO REPLACE THIS SYSTEM LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE
TROUGH PULLS... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA
REPOSITIONING TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/USVI-NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR
A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF/YUCATAN THROUGH 48/54 HRS...TO THEN SLOWLY LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTHEAST
USA-CUBA-BAHAMAS...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH 48-60 HRS...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY PULLING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. A TROUGH TO THE
EAST...A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WILL MEANDER
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA WHILE CENTERING ON A LOW NEAR 25N
63W. THROUGH 42-48 HRS THE LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST...TO WEAKEN
TO AN OPEN TROUGH THROUGH 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH STARTS TO
PULL...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES...PROVIDING STEERING TO CELLS BUILDING
OVER THE LARGER ISLANDS.

AS SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATIONS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS MOVE ACROSS
MEXICO/THE GULF THEY ARE TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE
FOCUS...HOWEVER...IS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO-GUATEMALA TO
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO...TO CONCENTRATE ON THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL...EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM/DAY THROUGH 48-54 HRS. OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MEXICO-GUATEMALA
EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-35MM THROUGH
48-54 HRS. OVER EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY AT 36-72 HRS. OVER COSTA
RICA-PANAMA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND WIDELY ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE GFS MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AS IT NOW SHOWS THE LOW
WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST THAN WHAT THE MODEL PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...AND CLOSER TO
THE UKMET-ECMWF SOLUTIONS. AS THE LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS...WINDS ARE
TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE EAST BY FIRST LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. THE EVOLVING FLOW PATTERN IS TO CONTINUE FAVORING MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION ON EASTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOISTURE
BRIEFLY SURGING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE. BUT NOT EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
POOL/LINGER FOR TOO LONG. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
EVENING/MONDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF THE LOW/OPEN TROUGH DRAW
SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE NAM IS RESPONDING QUITE WELL TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS...SHOWING
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY. THE UKMET IS THE ONLY ONE OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOWING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN DRY
BIASED. THE UKMET/NAM SOLUTIONS ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF (ARW AND NMM VERSIONS)...AS BOTH SHOW RISK OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST INTENSE
IS EXPECTED ON DAY 01...WHEN JET ALOFT IS TO ENHANCE
VENTILATION...TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIKELY DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL
FORCING...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN EXCESS OF 50MM. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SURGE LATE ON SUNDAY-MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES TO FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY...WHILE OVER
THE FRENCH ISLES EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. THIS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SOUTH OVER THE CONTINENT...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO DOMINATE
UPPER FLOW. AT 250 HPA IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TO THE CONTINENT ALONG 05N. FURTHERMORE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH WILL EXTEND ACROSS BRASIL ALONG 05S/10S TO PERU...WITH
AXIS TO GRADUALLY BUILD/INTENSIFY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
48-72 HRS. BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE RIDGES
ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER BRASIL. THE DAILY MAXIMA
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS TO PEAK AT 20-35MM/DAY...WITH SOME
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS-AMAZONIA IN VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA.
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA...WITH MOST INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN VENEZUELA TO
AMAZONIA/SANTANDERES IN COLOMBIA. IN THIS AREA... DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM/DAY. OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ANDEAN REGION EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

ALEXANDER...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
LORENZO...ONAMET (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

Fingers crossed!

.LONG TERM...

AS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES, THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...WE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO RELIEVE THE DROUGHT,
BUT WILL HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE RAINFALL DEFICITS THAT
CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.




Yeah, me too. Hopefully the shear doesn't completely kill it. That's the trend this year though. Promised rain that never shows up or just enough to get the pavement wet. Anything attempting to move south of Lake O falls apart. The new sod I planted last spring is now hanging on by a thread and weeds have infiltrated once again, argggg.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I don't get the bias within the nhc sometimes, junky little low pressures (like Bonnie 2010) can be considered Tropical Storm Strength yet a blatant Subtropical Depression/Storm is given a yellow circle and sent off to the archive a couple days later.
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Miami NWS Discussion

Fingers crossed!

.LONG TERM...

AS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES, THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...WE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO RELIEVE THE DROUGHT,
BUT WILL HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE RAINFALL DEFICITS THAT
CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
One thing of note is the size of this AOI, convection aside.

looks more like an Arlene than a 91L to me.

I guess naming a storm really isn't that important when its not threatening any land (and by the time it reaches land will be much weaker) or significant shipping lanes but I don't really see the problem with naming it either...
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232. DDR
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187 Neapolitan "yeah, it seems many people are suffering from "The-nuclear-fiasco-is-yesterday's-news-say-what's -Charlie-Sheen-doing-now" disease, so they're tired of talking about the ongoing situation at Fukushima. But the fact that 600 square kilometers or so of once-prime agricultural land is about to be indefinitely/permanently closed to anyone but Hazmat-suited nuke workers should bother folks."

Add in the new EvacuationZone, and the loss almost doubles.
At 20millisieverts per year contamination -- if the radioactive cesium and strontium levels compared to the radioactive iodine levels are similar to those typically reported earlier -- that farmland is lost till well past when everyone alive today is long RIPed.

On the day marking the first anniversary of the DeepwaterHorizon disaster, NPR ran some interviews of "jes' plain folks" talking about the past year. You could hear how mad they still are, and empathize with how sad they feel.
To them, fishin' ain't just a way of making a living, but rather a way of life that defines them. It's about going out to eg haul in some oysters as part of making money, bycatching a few crabs or fish extra and sharing them with neighbors who ain't quite as well off as you are at the moment. And that's after only a few generations of habit/custom. BP stole that from them and their friends...
...for what appears to be a relatively short time, a year for most of the victims.

In Japan, citizenship and the census is and has been officially drawn from births and deaths recorded in family rolls: many covering over a thousand years.
The social ladder went (and still does, in a certain sense) samurai*, farmer, merchant...
So ya got folks proud to be farmers being tossed off their land -- some being "farmed by the family" for far longer than the US has existed -- not merely losing their livelyhood but losing what they are and what their families have been over many many many generations.
Knots my stomach just thinkin' about it.

* Most soldiers were not samurai.
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Pass da Tabasco please,..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
Quoting sammywammybamy:
91L Facebook Fan Page:

Link

LOL Sammy!
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One thing of note is the size of this AOI, convection aside.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259


IR is not looking so wholesome...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20702
Looks like us in Florida will get slammed this season.
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Very obvious that the second circulation is in the process of being absorbed. It may actually have a chance, it sure looks like a duck now.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
My mother swore at the dinner table that this 91L is looking like it's coming to let us know the hurricane season is on the way.... think she should call NHC to give them the word??? lol

Whether it turns out to be anything more than an AOI, 91L sure has gotten our attention in this neck of the woods...

BTW anybody else notice that the only really dry area in the ATL right now seems to be right over Cuba, The Bahamas, and FL?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20702
#201,
A big Howdy back at ya Leo/Snake/Sister Gams!
Happy Good Friday / Earth Day / Easter weekend to you and family!
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Quoting TaylorSelseth:


It's gonna get smeared against a wall of wind shear to it's south like a bug against a windshield.


LOL that is one way of putting it! thanks
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Only under 20 knots of windshear currently. Not all that unfavorable.
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At this point, given the recent improvement in organization and slightly higher winds shown with the most recent ASCAT pass and latest fix numbers, I would now give this a medium chance for development into a tropical/subtropical cyclone.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Just checked and our little 91L is looking a lot healthier this afternoon.... from what I read back.. it will not last long???

shear suppose to tear it up tonight again?



It's gonna get smeared against a wall of wind shear to it's south like a bug against a windshield.
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Quoting AllStar17:


I'd agree. But if its a storm a storm, no matter the forecast.
You are correct, I'm just saying what I think will happen rather than what I would call a storm. But hey, I'm just a meteorology student, not a NHC employee.
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"91L,keep pushing.You've overtaked one opponent,but you have to push.There are still some hours to go before forecasted torrential rain(heavy wind shear),you can win a fight for a name(with NHC).Keep pushing"
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I have a feeling that if it were October instead of April, 91L would be called a subtropical storm. Definitely looks like one now to me. Will be interesting to see what the NHC says. I think they wont start issuing advisories since it will probably be dead by tomorrow.


I'd agree. But if its a storm a storm, no matter the forecast.
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Just checked and our little 91L is looking a lot healthier this afternoon.... from what I read back.. it will not last long???

shear suppose to tear it up tonight again?

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I have a feeling that if it were October instead of April, 91L would be called a subtropical storm. Definitely looks like one now to me. Will be interesting to see what the NHC says. I have a feeling they wont start issuing advisories since it will probably be dead by tomorrow.



That and I really don't think they will tag it until that spin off is gone.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Subtropical Depression Twenty-Two from 2005:


Invest 91L in April 2011:
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171 PlazaRed [inre comment168] "...There was a 5.5 quake a bit to the southwest of the plant today about 3 hours ago and it was very close to what looks like another big installation or nuclear facility on the coast..."

~14miles(~22.5kilometres)south of SSW of TEPCO's FukushimaDaiichi nuclear disaster
~7miles(~11.3kilometres)SSW of TEPCO's FukushimaDaini nuclear powerplant
FukushimaDaini is located ~11kilometres south of FukushimaDaiichi

Yesterday there was a magnitude5.7quake epicentered
~20miles(~32.2kilometres)ENE from FukushimaDaiichi and
~24miles(~38.6kilometres)NE from FukushimaDaini.
The lone red dot represents centralTokyo.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.