Tornadoes, huge hail pound the Midwest, but bring little Texas drought relief

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:41 PM GMT on April 20, 2011

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Severe weather blasted the Midwest again yesterday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 32 reports of tornadoes, 399 reports of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 325 instances of large hail (including softball-sized hail of 4.25 - 4.5" diameter in Clarkesville, MO and Stringtown, OK.) Fortunately, no deaths or injuries were reported from yesterday's storms. The storm also brought the heaviest snow so late in the season to Green Bay, Wisconsin--9.9 inches. This brought the seasonal total for Green Bay to 92.4", the third most on record.

The storm responsible will trek eastwards today, bringing the threat of severe weather to regions of the Southeast hard-hit by last week's remarkable tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a wide swath of the country from Eastern Texas to New Jersey under their "slight risk" for severe weather. According to the latest tornado tallies on the excellent Wikipedia page on the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, 128 tornadoes are confirmed to have occurred, with 39 of these strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. Remarkably, there have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes reported yet in 2011, despite the fact that the preliminary 2011 tornado count as compiled by SPC is 611, which will likely make 2011 the most active tornado season on record for this point in the year.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 8pm EDT on Tuesday, April 19, 2011, of the storm system that brought severe weather to the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today.

Yesterday's storms bring little drought relief for Texas
Yesterday's severe weather outbreak brought a few thunderstorms to the Dallas/Fort Worth area last night, with up to two inches of welcome rain falling in isolated areas. However, the rains missed the areas of Texas where the worst fires area burning, and strong winds associated with the spring storm helped whip up the fires. Winds will not be as strong today, and the latest 1 - 5 day rainfall forecasts show the possibility of isolated thunderstorms bringing drought relief to the same portions of Texas that benefited from last night's rains. These rains will not be enough to significantly slow down the record fires scorching Texas, though, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little chance of drought-busting rains over Texas into early May.


Figure 2. Total rainfall for North Texas from last night's storms brought only isolated drought relief.

Atlantic tropical disturbance
As a reminder that hurricane season is not that far away, an area of disturbed weather has formed in the Atlantic near 23N, 80W, about 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This system is under a hefty 60 knots of wind shear, but does have a surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has been removed well to the northeast of the surface circulation center by the high wind shear. The storm is expected to move northwest into a region of lower wind shear on Thursday and Friday, and should begin building more heavy thunderstorms during the next three days. The storm is not a threat to any land areas, and will likely be ripped apart by high wind shear this weekend. It has perhaps a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical depression before then. Climatology argues against this storm becoming the first named storm of the year; there has only been once named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.

Jeff Masters

Wildcat Fire (AngeloJoe)
Wildcat Fire near San Angelo, Texas. Pictures taken between 3 and 4 pm just to the south and east of Orient, Texas.
Wildcat Fire
April Showers (novembergale)
SNOW showers!
April Showers

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
91L looking better this morning convection-wise. The circulation also has tucked itself underneath the convection so we'll so how things go. IMO, for the next TWO, chances should get bumped up to 40%.

in step process will be used in the process we go to orange then red then T.C.F.A 01L DEPRESSION then t.s and finally hurr. if we even make it that far we will see
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Lady on local news station in Houston was saying water temps where 91L are way too cold for development, and I'm like ok lady, whatever, how the hell has it made it to invest status then? even I know water temps are in the upper 70s to 80 out there. And if atmoshpheric conditions are decent things can develop under 80 degree water.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting Drakoen:
91L is a bit better organized this morning with its convection
getting that arc look to it slowly steady as she goes
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It's April and were invest watching, crazy year in store for us
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
91L looking better this morning convection-wise. The circulation also has tucked itself underneath the convection so we'll so how things go. IMO, for the next TWO, chances should get bumped up to 40%.

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Good morning, I cannot believe we are already watching an invest.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N62W. ONE SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 22N67W 23N72W 27N73W.
A SECOND SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 20N54W 23N57W 23N61W. EACH SHEAR AXIS IS A BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES WIND SPEEDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KT ON THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF IT FROM WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 48W AND THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE BAHAMAS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

Loop
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The pressure's down another notch; winds are still at 35 knots:

AL, 91, 2011042112, , BEST, 0, 236N, 629W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
12Z update, down 1mb


AL 91 2011042112 BEST 0 236N 629W 35 1009 LO
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Anyone have any idea what kind of time we'll see the TWO from NHC?
around 2 pm to 4 pm 24 hrs after first special tropical statement unless significant dev occurs in which case normal issue time will be used
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Complete Update





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Quoting Jedkins01:


Those numbers look overdone to me.



Almost half of it is from day 4-5, which IMO is still low confidence; however many forcasters are actually saying the models are under forcasting precip amounts for days 1-3


days 4-5



days 1-3


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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Good point... but it CAN become an STS/TS

It still looks really good for an invest in April.


Oh, it is definitely impressive for an April invest. That said, I don't think its worthy of naming, and it has an uphill battle to get named.

IMO, ANY invest has a potential to be named - most just don't make it.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Anyone have any idea what kind of time we'll see the TWO from NHC?
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Just a little jug to the north and the wind shear will drop significantly witch i see the system trying to do right now
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


It has more convection around the center, and the circulation is not as naked as it was yesterday... it should be stronger than what it was yesterday.

While I agree that it *looks* stronger, I don't think it has consolidated enough to be named as a TS or an STS.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting sammywammybamy:


How is it too weak? it looks better than yesterday.


Look =| strength.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
818. IKE

Quoting sammywammybamy:


How is it too weak? it looks better than yesterday.
Agree...it does look better than yesterday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
816. Skyepony (Mod)
21/1145 UTC 23.4N 62.9W TOO WEAK 91L
21/0515 UTC 23.1N 62.5W TOO WEAK 91L
20/2345 UTC 23.2N 62.0W TOO WEAK 91L
20/1745 UTC 23.0N 60.8W ST1.5 91L

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
Although thunderstorm activity has increased near the circulation the center, the circulation looks somewhat elongated SW-NE as the convection may be trying to pull the circulation closer. Overall, looks better than yesterday though.

If you're looking for links to track 91L, you can check out this site.
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Good Morning/Evening

Nice big draw lines to the south of the disturbance.

Something is bringing rain to Florida. The forecast only said 10% chance but there were thick clouds all afternoon and it rained everywhere. Some hail and new fires from the lightning.

Yes I know 10% is still a chance, but the forecast is usually much closer than that.
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91L is a bit better organized this morning with its convection
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Quoting RastaSteve:
Rain for SE TX and Flooding for NW ARK as a staggering 11" is being predicted by the HPC Folks.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif


Those numbers look overdone to me.
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Quoting RastaSteve:
91L is still weak but interesting to watch. Like I have been saying this moisture will eventually move into FL sometime early next week.


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Quoting RastaSteve:


This trough is the key as it may not make it into the gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ namer/gfs/06/fp0_180.shtml


I don't see a trough digging into the gulf anytime soon as strong as high pressure has been holding.
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807. flsky
Horrifying new video of the tsunami.
Link
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Is the fire still near you house/ranch?

Nope. I saw some smoke nearby yesterday, but I think it was a car fire, rather than a grass/brush fire. I'm in the middle of a subdivision, so I'm not THAT worried, but still...

(and thank you for asking!)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
And for the love of all that is (un)holy... PLEASE stop with the wishcasting! The "thing" doesn't have quite a few of the qualifications for a TS or STS. (no CDO, it has an extremely exposed LLC, no 40mph+ winds, and issues with thunderstorm persistence).

Wishing a storm does not make a storm. Its not worthy of naming by any means.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
798.

Nobody has mentioned it because its 10 days out, and is just one model.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
115

WHXX01 KWBC 211112

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1112 UTC THU APR 21 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110421 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110421 0600 110421 1800 110422 0600 110422 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.3N 62.5W 23.7N 64.1W 23.7N 64.9W 23.2N 65.3W

BAMD 23.3N 62.5W 25.5N 58.5W 28.3N 55.9W 31.1N 54.0W

BAMM 23.3N 62.5W 24.6N 62.5W 25.9N 62.2W 26.6N 61.8W

LBAR 23.3N 62.5W 24.2N 61.9W 25.2N 61.1W 26.1N 59.9W

SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS 28KTS

DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110423 0600 110424 0600 110425 0600 110426 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.1N 65.6W 20.5N 68.1W 19.6N 71.9W 20.0N 76.1W

BAMD 33.6N 50.7W 39.3N 35.8W 44.8N 22.1W 45.5N 12.2W

BAMM 26.1N 61.5W 23.5N 62.9W 21.7N 65.0W 21.2N 66.5W

LBAR 26.9N 58.6W 27.3N 55.2W 26.4N 52.3W 26.2N 50.4W

SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 62.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 23.2N LONM12 = 60.8W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 22.6N LONM24 = 58.9W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM



$$

NNNN
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XX/INV/91L
MARK
24.93N/63.16W
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Quoting RastaSteve:
Rain for SE TX and Flooding for NW ARK as a staggering 11" is being predicted by the HPC Folks.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif


If they could shift that entire line about 300 miles to the south, I would be estatic.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting RastaSteve:


I like the aggressiveness!
Well, im just playing my cards as they work out, if it becomes disorganized again, im more than welcome to lower it again.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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