Tornadoes, huge hail pound the Midwest, but bring little Texas drought relief

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:41 PM GMT on April 20, 2011

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Severe weather blasted the Midwest again yesterday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 32 reports of tornadoes, 399 reports of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 325 instances of large hail (including softball-sized hail of 4.25 - 4.5" diameter in Clarkesville, MO and Stringtown, OK.) Fortunately, no deaths or injuries were reported from yesterday's storms. The storm also brought the heaviest snow so late in the season to Green Bay, Wisconsin--9.9 inches. This brought the seasonal total for Green Bay to 92.4", the third most on record.

The storm responsible will trek eastwards today, bringing the threat of severe weather to regions of the Southeast hard-hit by last week's remarkable tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a wide swath of the country from Eastern Texas to New Jersey under their "slight risk" for severe weather. According to the latest tornado tallies on the excellent Wikipedia page on the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, 128 tornadoes are confirmed to have occurred, with 39 of these strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. Remarkably, there have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes reported yet in 2011, despite the fact that the preliminary 2011 tornado count as compiled by SPC is 611, which will likely make 2011 the most active tornado season on record for this point in the year.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 8pm EDT on Tuesday, April 19, 2011, of the storm system that brought severe weather to the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today.

Yesterday's storms bring little drought relief for Texas
Yesterday's severe weather outbreak brought a few thunderstorms to the Dallas/Fort Worth area last night, with up to two inches of welcome rain falling in isolated areas. However, the rains missed the areas of Texas where the worst fires area burning, and strong winds associated with the spring storm helped whip up the fires. Winds will not be as strong today, and the latest 1 - 5 day rainfall forecasts show the possibility of isolated thunderstorms bringing drought relief to the same portions of Texas that benefited from last night's rains. These rains will not be enough to significantly slow down the record fires scorching Texas, though, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little chance of drought-busting rains over Texas into early May.


Figure 2. Total rainfall for North Texas from last night's storms brought only isolated drought relief.

Atlantic tropical disturbance
As a reminder that hurricane season is not that far away, an area of disturbed weather has formed in the Atlantic near 23N, 80W, about 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This system is under a hefty 60 knots of wind shear, but does have a surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has been removed well to the northeast of the surface circulation center by the high wind shear. The storm is expected to move northwest into a region of lower wind shear on Thursday and Friday, and should begin building more heavy thunderstorms during the next three days. The storm is not a threat to any land areas, and will likely be ripped apart by high wind shear this weekend. It has perhaps a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical depression before then. Climatology argues against this storm becoming the first named storm of the year; there has only been once named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.

Jeff Masters

Wildcat Fire (AngeloJoe)
Wildcat Fire near San Angelo, Texas. Pictures taken between 3 and 4 pm just to the south and east of Orient, Texas.
Wildcat Fire
April Showers (novembergale)
SNOW showers!
April Showers

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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
HAHAHA!a TWO,20% chance.Reminds of 90L'10,but it was month later...amazing season ahead.Invests in both March and April...2005 looks like baby compared to this.
But in the end 2005 will likley surpass 2011.But what the hell am I talking about?.We never knew what would come about that season.So who knows about this one....
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Early season start, Gulf primed for development in June/July? if so bring it to Texas, were on fire and burning up
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390. unf97
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lol! Doesn't that just figure.

Hm.. my better judgment tells me I shouldn't say it but..

Great Scott!



CybrTeddy, that is the way it has been for me these days. I try to lauugh these days after what I have been through the past month as my father passed away on March 19.

I'm doing better and it is good to back on the WU blog tracking unexpectedly an invest in late April.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Lightning and gusty winds are gonna spark and fan more fires unfortunately. Whoever is sitting under the rain faucet will be benefited. But the days of power house summer heat and high sun angle is gonna evaporate the soils like a fat kid sucking up a rootbear float.

LOL.

And right now, instead of the high sun angle, we just have near-summer heat, and a blow-dryer of winds. Not sure which is worse.
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259

WHXX01 KWBC 201901

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1901 UTC WED APR 20 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110420 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110420 1800 110421 0600 110421 1800 110422 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.2N 60.8W 23.7N 62.5W 24.1N 64.0W 24.1N 64.6W

BAMD 23.2N 60.8W 24.8N 57.4W 27.5N 55.8W 30.5N 55.2W

BAMM 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 61.1W 25.6N 61.6W 26.9N 61.7W

LBAR 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 60.6W 25.3N 60.7W 26.7N 60.5W

SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS

DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110422 1800 110423 1800 110424 1800 110425 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.6N 65.3W 21.8N 68.2W 21.3N 73.0W 21.9N 77.7W

BAMD 33.5N 53.2W 41.4N 38.1W 50.1N 21.3W 55.1N 12.1W

BAMM 27.2N 61.8W 24.8N 63.6W 23.3N 66.8W 23.3N 69.4W

LBAR 28.1N 59.9W 29.9N 56.4W 30.1N 51.8W 30.1N 50.2W

SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 60.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 22.6N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.6W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting pottery:

Note the large area of saturated air in the ITCZ approaching 25w.
Lots of moist air all over...


I see your MET service has another visiting meterologist at HPC, they are forecasting for you:

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLES TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO/ORINOCO DELTA REGION IN VENEZUELA...WHERE DAILY MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 15-25MM/DAY.


Link
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Lake Charles NWS on todays lower winds higher humidity. Sigh

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY
AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
POSSIBLY GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...THIS
WILL HELP KEEP MIN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 45
AND 55 PERCENT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 AND BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP FIRE
WEATHER BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON THE OTHER HAND...NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP GROUND FUELS VERY DRY
AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO IGNITE GRASS OR WOODS FIRES AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALSO...IF ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN ZONES...THEY WILL PRODUCE STRAY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
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when does the next run of the XTRAP model come out?

bwaahahahahaaaaa bring it on!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26642
The MDR ,and the whole Basin is primed,..pott
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Quoting RastaSteve:
Strongest storms in the US right now are west of Gainesville and these bad boys are packing a punch. Cloud tops are at 45,000 to 50,000 feet.




This is the strongest at 49,000
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
XX/INV/91L
MARK
22.98N/59.36W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting Patrap:

Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery



Note the large area of saturated air in the ITCZ approaching 25w.
Lots of moist air all over...
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Severe storms ongoing in Arkansas
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at201191_model_intensity
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Storms firing SE of San Angelo TX, lets see what happens
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Quoting RastaSteve:
Strongest storms in the US right now are west of Gainesville and these bad boys are packing a punch. Cloud tops are at 45,000 to 50,000 feet.


Maybe they'll develop southward and give Tampa some rain? Seems like they're developing everywhere in the last few days in Florida except the Tampa Bay area.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
HAHAHA!a TWO,20% chance.Reminds of 90L'10,but it was month later...amazing season ahead.Invests in both March and April...2005 looks like baby compared to this.
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373. IKE

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You new career as a wishcaster is off to a good start... :)
lol!
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Quoting IKE:

R U kidding me?

WTH?


Your new career as a wishcaster is off to a good start... :)
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Quoting unf97:
LOL..

Just as I completed that post NHC posted a special tropical outlook. LOL.. That is how it goes.. figures..


Lol! Doesn't that just figure.

Hm.. my better judgment tells me I shouldn't say it but..

Great Scott!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
So if it does develope(and that is a big IF) it will obviously go right to sub-tropical cyclone status.
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Lightning and gusty winds are gonna spark and fan more fires unfortunately. Whoever is sitting under the rain faucet will be benefited. But the days of power house summer heat and high sun angle is gonna evaporate the soils like a fat kid sucking up a rootbear float.
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91L Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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An Invest in April!?

91L = DOOM!
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363. unf97
LOL..

Just as I completed that post NHC posted a special tropical outlook. LOL.. That is how it goes.. figures..
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Quoting unf97:


Only if it becomes a named system and a threat to land areas. Right now, that appears unlikely at least for the next 2-3 days. The fact that we have 91L out there to saturate our appetites is aamzing enough. I doubt the shear will relax enough for any further development, but you never know. It is an intriguing feature at there to watch at least, especially this early in the game in mid-late April.


Look a few posts ahead of you. The NHC just posted a special TWO.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting Minnemike:
;)

yeah, back when humans were a natural species subject to only those conveniences provided withstanding our ingenuity. it seems to me that subjugation of nature is the double edged sword here, but who among us would relinquish modern conveniences? likely none...

I dont know 'bout you. But I object to being called an un-natural species.
Except on some occasions, which, now that I think on it are more regular than they used to be.
Maybe it's all this Global Warming or something...
:)
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358. unf97
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if we will see a SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS from the nhc on this


Only if it becomes a named system and a threat to land areas. Right now, that appears unlikely at least for the next 2-3 days. The fact that we have 91L out there to saturate our appetites is aamzing enough. I doubt the shear will relax enough for any further development, but you never know. It is an intriguing feature at there to watch at least, especially this early in the game in mid-late April.
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Svr-Tstorm watch over parts of drought-stricken TX... here's to prayin for rain, and not just lightning starting up new blazes!!
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 105 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 110 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JUNCTION
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...WW 169...WW 170...

DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED
BY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000+ J/KG. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...MEAD

Hope TX can get some much needed rain from this, without the lighting
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
WTH the sites and loops not working from the NHC? just as bad as the flight controllers in the towers sleeping on the job, NHC unprepared for season or something...


Sarcasm Flag: ON
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354. IKE

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Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z is a little deeper with the system compared to previous runs:

That's interesting.Don't think it will get that deep though.
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Yep. Its pretty much hurricane season when you see chain TWO's posted.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
I'm willing to go out on a limb and say there will be a window of 6-12 hrs for this to become named Arlene as subtropical or tropical, doesn't matter. But a name
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348. IKE

Quoting Chucktown:
53368
abnt20 knhc 201935
twoat

special tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
335 pm edt wed apr 20 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

a low pressure area located about 460 miles northeast of san juan puerto rico has developed some shower and thunderstorm activity near its center. in addition...satellite data and ship reports indicate gale-force winds are occurring north of the center. slow development of this system is possible during the couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. there is a low chance...20 percent...of this system developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone before conditions become less favorable in about 48 hours. additional information on this low can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the nhc/tropical analysis and forecast branch...under awips header nfdhsfat2 and wmo header
fznt02 knhc. another special outlook will be issued on thursday...
or sooner if necessary.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
R U kidding me?

WTH?
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91L Floater - Visible Loop

TFP's NOT available
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
00
ABNT20 KNHC 201935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 201935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting CybrTeddy:
91L has winds of 40 mph already. We'd be talking about STS Arlene instead of S-TD 1.

In any case, it will cause some pretty good swells along the florida coast, with 40mph winds.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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