Tornadoes, huge hail pound the Midwest, but bring little Texas drought relief

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:41 PM GMT on April 20, 2011

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Severe weather blasted the Midwest again yesterday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 32 reports of tornadoes, 399 reports of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 325 instances of large hail (including softball-sized hail of 4.25 - 4.5" diameter in Clarkesville, MO and Stringtown, OK.) Fortunately, no deaths or injuries were reported from yesterday's storms. The storm also brought the heaviest snow so late in the season to Green Bay, Wisconsin--9.9 inches. This brought the seasonal total for Green Bay to 92.4", the third most on record.

The storm responsible will trek eastwards today, bringing the threat of severe weather to regions of the Southeast hard-hit by last week's remarkable tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a wide swath of the country from Eastern Texas to New Jersey under their "slight risk" for severe weather. According to the latest tornado tallies on the excellent Wikipedia page on the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, 128 tornadoes are confirmed to have occurred, with 39 of these strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. Remarkably, there have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes reported yet in 2011, despite the fact that the preliminary 2011 tornado count as compiled by SPC is 611, which will likely make 2011 the most active tornado season on record for this point in the year.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 8pm EDT on Tuesday, April 19, 2011, of the storm system that brought severe weather to the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today.

Yesterday's storms bring little drought relief for Texas
Yesterday's severe weather outbreak brought a few thunderstorms to the Dallas/Fort Worth area last night, with up to two inches of welcome rain falling in isolated areas. However, the rains missed the areas of Texas where the worst fires area burning, and strong winds associated with the spring storm helped whip up the fires. Winds will not be as strong today, and the latest 1 - 5 day rainfall forecasts show the possibility of isolated thunderstorms bringing drought relief to the same portions of Texas that benefited from last night's rains. These rains will not be enough to significantly slow down the record fires scorching Texas, though, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little chance of drought-busting rains over Texas into early May.


Figure 2. Total rainfall for North Texas from last night's storms brought only isolated drought relief.

Atlantic tropical disturbance
As a reminder that hurricane season is not that far away, an area of disturbed weather has formed in the Atlantic near 23N, 80W, about 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This system is under a hefty 60 knots of wind shear, but does have a surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has been removed well to the northeast of the surface circulation center by the high wind shear. The storm is expected to move northwest into a region of lower wind shear on Thursday and Friday, and should begin building more heavy thunderstorms during the next three days. The storm is not a threat to any land areas, and will likely be ripped apart by high wind shear this weekend. It has perhaps a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical depression before then. Climatology argues against this storm becoming the first named storm of the year; there has only been once named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.

Jeff Masters

Wildcat Fire (AngeloJoe)
Wildcat Fire near San Angelo, Texas. Pictures taken between 3 and 4 pm just to the south and east of Orient, Texas.
Wildcat Fire
April Showers (novembergale)
SNOW showers!
April Showers

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53497
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53497
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53497
Radar estimates outta San Angelo TX showing 4.7" of rain in isolated areas
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Made a new blog post concerning Invest 91L.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 416 Comments: 679
Quoting SeALWx:
Didn't bother to actually read the material, did you?

Why should he?

Ferguson and the site SPPI is well known for sherry picking and false data. Here you have some information about the non science nonsense site SPPI and Ferguson Link Link
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I posted a portion of this in the AM. Boy the power of a tornado is amazing

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53497
yep there is a blob, the one Rasta posted about near Jax FL, the other at around 60 odd, looks like it is getting sucked off to the right, hey that forcast works for me LOL



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navy conducting a bunch of tropical exercises

Tropical Warning Information
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 82L - EXERCISE
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.

Issued: Tue 19 Apr 2011 21:00Z
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Graphic
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Text
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert JMV data
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Gold Ovly
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page
Tropical Depression 82L (NONAME) Warning #01 - EXERCISE
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.

Issued: Wed 20 Apr 2011 18:00Z
TC Warning Graphic
TC Warning Text
TC JMV Data
TC Gold Ovly
TC Warning Shapefile (zip format)
TC Google Earth (KMZ format)
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page
Tropical Depression 81L (NONAME) Warning #02 - EXERCISE
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.

Issued: Wed 20 Apr 2011 18:00Z
TC Warning Graphic
TC Warning Text
TC JMV Data
TC Gold Ovly
TC Warning Shapefile (zip format)
TC Google Earth (KMZ format)
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere
By npmoc-webmaster@navy.mil (NMFC Webmaster) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on .

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53497
429. JRRP
UKMO
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5693
Quoting RastaSteve:


Here's the most recent one. It was at -11C earlier now seems to be at -8 or -9C.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/mlb/adas/ convective_parms.gif


Thank you. PWAT's a little above 1.6 in that general area. Gotta break out the millimeter to inches conversion charts though.
Link
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XX/INV/91L
MARK
22.98N/59.86W
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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
422. JRRP
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Quoting RastaSteve:
Strong to Severe thunderstorms in north FL right now. Kinda surprised a watch isn't issued for N FL as the Lift Index is sitting at -10 to -11C.


Do you have a link? The one I have has the Lifted Index at -3 or -4 but only updates every 12 hours.
Link
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 802
Looking at visible satellite imagery, a few lower-level outflow boundaries can be seen exiting out of the thunderstorm activity located towards the western semicircle of the circulation. Lower-level outflow boundaries are indicators of downdrafts which constitute towards collapsing thunderstorm activity. Not surprising that thunderstorm activity is collapsing in association with 91L as this is a usual occurrence with weak systems and diurnal cycles.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21104
Indeed..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Pat, Now that is cool
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Rose of Galaxies


To celebrate the 21st anniversary of the Hubble Space Telescope's deployment into space, astronomers at the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, Md., pointed Hubble's eye at an especially photogenic pair of interacting galaxies called Arp 273. The larger of the spiral galaxies, known as UGC 1810, has a disk that is distorted into a rose-like shape by the gravitational tidal pull of the companion galaxy below it, known as UGC 1813. This image is a composite of Hubble Wide Field Camera 3 data taken on December 17, 2010, with three separate filters that allow a broad range of wavelengths covering the ultraviolet, blue, and red portions of the spectrum.

Hubble was launched April 24, 1990, aboard Discovery's STS-31 mission. Hubble discoveries revolutionized nearly all areas of current astronomical research from planetary science to cosmology.

Credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
WINDSAT

Ocean Surface Wind Vector Map - Descending
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting RMuller:


Obviously he didn't read the publication because it disproves his eternal point.


But it does give them one more thing to add to "THE LIST": Invests happening earlier in the year.
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This is also an enlightening image, of wildland fire ecology.

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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR EUPORA
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MATHISTON...SHERWOOD...REFORM AND LONGVIEW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
"The uniformly rich soil of the Illinois and Wisconsin prairies produced so close and tall a growth of grasses that no tree could live on it. Had there been no fires, these fine prairies, so marked a feature of the country, would have been covered by the heaviest forest."
- from Aldo Leopold's A Sand County Almanac and Sketches Here and There

Fire has always been a partner with healthy prairies. In dry conditions early in the spring or late in summer and early fall, lightning could strike and set a prairie ablaze. Later, Native Americans and Euro-Americans set prairie fires to help hunt animals and clear the land. Today, prairies are managed and maintained by prescribed burns.

During each burn, non-native plants are removed, allowing prairie plants more nutrients and room to grow. Prairie plants can survive fires since they have deep roots and grow from a point underground. A prescribed burn is a crucial component in prairie restoration.

Burns are conducted early in restoration projects to prepare the land for planting. Prairies are burned at regular intervals to help keep them healthy.

(link)

Locations of prairies in the US:

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Quoting RastaSteve:


LOL! Ike turned a new leaf this year.

Nah!
It's just that he was right last year. And looks to be on the ball again this one too.
He should be banned.
:):)
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Quoting Minnemike:
implication understood, though it's a stretch to presume me labeling humans an unnatural species. if you wish to extrapolate my statement into implication, note that my point is a behavioral one. we do not behave naturally in light of our environment and our origins. but that does not make the human or it's activities explicitly unnatural. fact of the matter is, we subjugate nature, classified as that which humans do not create... but that very activity could even be called natural when taking in account each species own brand of controls over it's environment. thing is, we're 'free thinkers' and in our choice making, we behave in ways that counteract the status quo of environmental checks and balances. the "natural world" is nearly void of fully aware, free thinking individuals... though, sometimes it seems that statement is pertinent to our species as well. ironic.

Nice one!
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Quoting Patrap:
The MDR ,and the whole Basin is primed,..pott
Looking so Pat. Looking so.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



I see your MET service has another visiting meterologist at HPC, they are forecasting for you:

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLES TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO/ORINOCO DELTA REGION IN VENEZUELA...WHERE DAILY MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 15-25MM/DAY.


Link

Thanks for that.

We had a 2.5" cloudburst on Monday.
And right now there is a Black Sky with loud rumbles about 3-4 miles to my south. They getting it good, down there.
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Quoting unf97:



CybrTeddy, that is the way it has been for me these days. I try to lauugh these days after what I have been through the past month as my father passed away on March 19.

I'm doing better and it is good to back on the WU blog tracking unexpectedly an invest in late April.


Great to have you aboard! I can relate, I lost a relative recently too back during Christmas.
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sorry folks, philosophy blog around the corner, down the hall... exit stage left
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Early season start, Gulf primed for development in June/July? if so bring it to Texas, were on fire and burning up
Well in a few of the analog years Texas is affected.And in 2008 which is ann analog year Texas was pounded.Sooooo we'll see...
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This is a healthy storm, putting out alot of lighting and rain.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting RitaEvac:
Early season start, Gulf primed for development in June/July? if so bring it to Texas, were on fire and burning up
i will see what i can do

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53497
Quoting pottery:

I dont know 'bout you. But I object to being called an un-natural species.
Except on some occasions, which, now that I think on it are more regular than they used to be.
Maybe it's all this Global Warming or something...
:)
implication understood, though it's a stretch to presume me labeling humans an unnatural species. if you wish to extrapolate my statement into implication, note that my point is a behavioral one. we do not behave naturally in light of our environment and our origins. but that does not make the human or it's activities explicitly unnatural. fact of the matter is, we subjugate nature, classified as that which humans do not create... but that very activity could even be called natural when taking in account each species own brand of controls over it's environment. thing is, we're 'free thinkers' and in our choice making, we behave in ways that counteract the status quo of environmental checks and balances. the "natural world" is nearly void of fully aware, free thinking individuals... though, sometimes it seems that statement is pertinent to our species as well. ironic.
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Quoting Patrap:
The MDR ,and the whole Basin is primed,..pott
primed ready able
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53497
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
HAHAHA!a TWO,20% chance.Reminds of 90L'10,but it was month later...amazing season ahead.Invests in both March and April...2005 looks like baby compared to this.
But in the end 2005 will likley surpass 2011.But what the hell am I talking about?.We never knew what would come about that season.So who knows about this one....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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