Tornadoes rip Alabama, Misssissippi; 17 dead in 2-day outbreak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:51 PM GMT on April 16, 2011

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Dozens of tornadoes and dangerous severe thunderstorms tore through the Southeast U.S. on Friday, bringing a second day of severe weather havoc to the nation. The death toll from the two-day severe blitz now stands at seventeen, with up to 100 people injured and tens of millions of dollars in property damage. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 98 tornado reports yesterday, bringing the two-day total for the outbreak to 120 tornadoes. These preliminary reports are usually a 15% over-count of the actual number of tornadoes, which still means over 100 tornadoes have probably touched down during the past two days. The deadliest tornado of the outbreak hit near Prattville, Alabama at 10:55pm CDT last night, killing three people in a mobile home, and injuring four others. One of the most damaging tornadoes occurred just west of Jackson, Mississippi, when a tornado touched down just south of I-20, crossed the expressway, flipping cars and semis, then plowed through the town of Clinton. At least nine people were injured in Clinton, and extensive damage characteristic of an EF-2 tornado is apparent in damage photos.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the Clinton, Mississippi tornado at 10:57am CDT as the twister crossed I-20 and hit the town. Note the classic hook-shaped echo of the parent mesocyclone in the rotating severe thunderstorms that spawned the tornado.


Figure 2. Doppler radar velocity image of the Clinton, Mississippi tornado at 10:57am CDT.

On Thursday, tornadoes and deadly severe thunderstorms tore through Oklahoma and Arkansas, killing at least nine people. A EF-3 tornado hit the small town of Tushka, Oklahoma, population 350, ripping off the roof of the local high school and destroying dozens of buildings in Tushka. Two people were killed and 25 injured. The tornado moved over farmland and dissipated a short time later, but the squall line that spawned the tornado moved into Arkansas overnight, spawning severe thunderstorm winds that killed seven more people.

Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina under the gun today
The action shifts eastwards to southern Virgina and eastern North Carolina and South Carolina today, which NOAA's Storm Prediction Center have placed under its "moderate risk" region for severe weather. This is the same level of risk as we've seen for the past two days for this storm system, and it is very unusual for this portion of the U.S. to experience such a high severe weather risk. Tornado watches have already been posted for portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. You can follow today's severe weather using our severe weather page and interactive tornado map. This map now shows links to Youtube storm chaser videos of tornadoes, plus any wunderphotos taken of the storm.


Figure 3. Satellite image from 23:32 UTC (7:32pm CDT) April 15, 2011, showing the strong low pressure system over the middle of the country that brought yesterday's severe weather outbreak. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Water vapor satellite image from 23:15 UTC (7:15pm CDT) April 15, 2011, showing a dry, eye-like feature in the strong low pressure system over the middle of the country. This eye-like feature persisted for many hours, but was not visible on infrared or visible satellite images. According to an analysis done by Scott Bachmeier at the University of Wisconsin, the stratosphere, which has very dry air, sunk down to the 600 mb height at the center of the storm, and it is possible that dry air from the stratosphere is responsible for this eye-like feature. This is a different mechanism than how hurricanes develop eyes, and yesterday's storm had only a shallow area of low clouds with light rain near the center--nothing like an eyewall of a hurricane. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 5. Storm chaser video from Reed Timmer of the Clinton, Mississippi tornado on April 15, 2011. Numerous transformers blow as the tornado wipes out power lines, creating bright blue-green flashes.


Figure 6. Storm chaser video from tornadovideos.net of a huge tornado in Oklahoma during Thursday's outbreak there.

Jeff Masters

Monster Supercell (Californiaboy)
Plowing over the countryside on its way to Madill.
Monster Supercell
Stacked Up (Californiaboy)
Tractor rig picked up and placed on top of the others. Taken 2 miles north of Madill.
Stacked Up
Madill Tornado (Californiaboy)
Taken shortly after 6 p.m. on Hwy 70 looking east. The tornado hit 2 miles north of town.
Madill Tornado

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Dr. Greg Forges "A tornado is making a B-line towards downtown Raleigh. Please take cover immediately.
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Just looking at latest Velocities on the storm.. The mesocyclone/tornado is now moving through Holly Springs with no signs of weakening. Still heading straight towards Downtown Raleigh...
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@76.

Photobucket
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Indeed, a PDS for Raleigh as radar velocity indicates strong tornadic cell heading right at them...

Gregg Forbes on TWC emphasizing the danger looming as well... cell moving NE at near 65 mph...


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... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
southeastern Durham and southwestern wake counties...

At 331 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar and emergency
officials were tracking a destructive and extremely dangerous
tornado. This tornado was located near Holly Springs... moving
northeast at 70 mph.

Some locations in the path of this tornado include Holly
Springs... Lake Wheeler... Raleigh.

This is a tornado emergency... act now to protect your life. Move to
an interior room of the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Use
blankets or pillows to protect your body from flying debris. Avoid
windows. If in a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest
substantial shelter.

Hazards in the warning include...
a tornado.

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... vehicle or
outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter. If no shelter is
available lie down in a low lying area. Protect yourself from flying
debris.

When it is safe to do so... please call in your reports of penny or
larger sized hail... as well as wind damage... including trees or large
limbs downed by calling the National Weather Service toll free
at... 1... 8 7 7... 6 3 3... 6 7 7 2.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT Saturday evening
for central North Carolina.

Lat... Lon 3570 7847 3555 7875 3560 7899 3563 7899
3577 7894 3598 7878
time... Mot... loc 1933z 238deg 59kt 3579 7854

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Tornado Emergencies arent given lightly, im praying people in Raleigh are prepared.
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TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR RALEIGH...


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
southeastern Durham... southwestern wake... eastern Chatham...
northeastern Lee and north central Harnett counties...

At 317 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located about 3 miles
southwest of Holly Springs... moving northeast at 70 mph. There has
been significant damage reported from this tornado.

Hazards in the warning include...
a tornado.

Locations in the path of the storm include... Raleigh and surrounding
communities.

This is a tornado emergency for... Raleigh.

This is a tornado emergency... act now to protect your life. Move to
an interior room of the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Use
blankets or pillows to protect your body from flying debris. Avoid
windows. If in a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest
substantial shelter.

When it is safe to do so... please call in your reports of penny or
larger sized hail... as well as wind damage... including trees or large
limbs downed by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...
1... 8 7 7... 6 3 3... 6 7 7 2.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT Saturday evening
for central North Carolina.

Lat... Lon 3570 7847 3552 7871 3548 7885 3547 7895
3562 7916 3598 7878
time... Mot... loc 1927z 238deg 59kt 3574 7865

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Quoting xcool:


Pretty clear little disturbance over the Bahamas. It is 7 days out, and doesn't look too impressive, so I highly doubt it will be Arlene, but still something to think about nonetheless. Idk why nobody else hasn't commented on it yet.



ngp and cmc picks it up as well



Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR RALEIGH!!!
***TAKE COVER***

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCC037-063-085-105-183-162000-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/
HARNETT NC-LEE NC-CHATHAM NC-WAKE NC-DURHAM NC-
328 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE...EASTERN CHATHAM...
NORTHEASTERN LEE AND NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOLLY SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. THERE HAS
BEEN SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED FROM THIS TORNADO.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
A TORNADO.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...RALEIGH AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR... RALEIGH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY...ACT NOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO PROTECT YOUR BODY FROM FLYING DEBRIS. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3570 7847 3552 7871 3548 7885 3547 7895
3562 7916 3598 7878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 238DEG 59KT 3574 7865

$$
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this is not a good situation.
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Tornado on the ground with damage heading towards the Raleigh area.
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Look at that thing on TWC, freaking insane looking!
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36 RandomText "Doesn't the "your life" link sort of prove that our gasoline prices are the result of foreign currency scams and price gouging?
How can Mexico, a third world country, have an average gasoline price a dollar per gallon cheaper than us?
"

Nope. Mexico and many other oil(net)exporting nations heavily subsidize consumers with low gasoline&diesel prices, lest "come the Revolution". Which ends up harming those nations' growth by encouraging use of highly inefficient vehicles (old&new) and overuse of automobiles and trucks.
ie Gasoline&diesel is so cheap and highways are so heavily subsidized that existing rail*transportation is only marginally cheaper than trucks&semis while being more time consuming to use, leaving no profit margin to attract investment into new rail development... Or in a more general sense, into more efficient electrical power production and transmission.
Literally burning future economic growth to subsidize wasters.

eg Most of Iran's profits from oil exports is spent on subsidizing cheap gasoline&diesel for consumers at way way below production cost and subsidizing gasoline imports to meet the consumer demand. Due to subsidizing fuel at prices low enough to keep a lid on Iranian discontent:
Iran doesn't have the technology efficient enough to compete in the world gasoline&diesel market;
nor enough money to develop that technology;
nor enough money to build more of their own refineries with sufficient efficiency improvenment to compete even after the cost of exporting capital is figured in.
Most of the rest of their oil money is spent on recruiting thugs from poor neighborhoods to form heavily-subsidized gangs to politically support the whack-wing government.
The remainder as well as general revenue taxes are spent on a military and a security apparatus feeding on both paranoia and delusions of grandeur. Leaving little for other government functions, and nothing for investment.

* Trains don't receive that consumer subsidy on diesel...
...and I think they use a different fuel-grade entirely.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is a very scary line...

Sure is, Dr. Forbes said it was one of the best looking supercells of the whole outbreak. Storm Relative Velocity looks nasty.
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I am concerned about the Raleigh Metro Area. There is a very strong mesocyclone and hook that is heading for Holly Springs, and if it continues, it looks like the Downtown Raleigh area is in the path of the storm. I am hoping this storm dies out before it reaches any populated areas.
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TORNADO WARNING
NCC037-063-085-105-183-162000-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0016.110416T1912Z-110416T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWESTERN WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT


*AT 310 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER NORTHERN LEE
COUNTY JUST NORTHWEST OF SANFORD. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLLY SPRINGS...NEW HILL...
APEX...CARY...
LAKE WHEELER...GARNER...
RALEIGH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 7847 3552 7871 3542 7900 3560 7920
3598 7878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 238DEG 59KT 3561 7895

$$

13
---
bad bad bad bad.... aimed right at raleigh...
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1840 3 NNW ROXBORO PERSON NC 3645 7899 AT COUNTRY CLUB ROAD ... STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO CARPORT ... TREES DOWN IN ROAD ... TRAILER FLIPPED (RAH)
1910 BROADWAY LEE NC 3546 7905 MULTIPLE STRUCTURES DAMAGED AND POSSIBLE HOUSES COLLAPSED
---
and here we go with the reports, hopefully the lines bark is worse than its bite.
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Quoting IceCoast:
From the mesoscale discussion.....Hoping this cell weakens

RADAR AT 1915Z SHOWS CLASSIC SUPERCELL WITH INTENSE TORNADIC COUPLET
HEADING TOWARDS RALEIGH METRO AREA WITH POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING
EFFECTS.


That is a very scary line...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
SCC027-161945-
/O.NEW.KCAE.TO.W.0006.110416T1912Z-110416T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CLARENDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MANNING...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TURBEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3382 7991 3381 7995 3377 7999 3372 7997
3371 7999 3368 8000 3363 8032 3369 8036
3395 7997 3389 7995 3390 7992 3387 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 231DEG 49KT 3371 8023

$$

SMITH

from the r9 cell with the TVS


I have property near Manning...if you hear anything more about this...Would you please let me know?
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From the Convective Outlook discussion.....Hoping this cell weakens

RADAR AT 1915Z SHOWS CLASSIC SUPERCELL WITH INTENSE TORNADIC COUPLET
HEADING TOWARDS RALEIGH METRO AREA WITH POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING
EFFECTS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
57. Jedkins01 2:52 PM EDT on April 16, 2011

Thanks. I thought they made a headline out of a PDS on the SPC main page. Guess not.
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SC/NC Border Area
Scotland County, NC (north)
Marlboro/Dillion County, SC (south)

Photobucket
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SCC027-161945-
/O.NEW.KCAE.TO.W.0006.110416T1912Z-110416T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CLARENDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MANNING...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TURBEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3382 7991 3381 7995 3377 7999 3372 7997
3371 7999 3368 8000 3363 8032 3369 8036
3395 7997 3389 7995 3390 7992 3387 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 231DEG 49KT 3371 8023

$$

SMITH

from the r9 cell with the TVS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
This particular line generally in the Piedmont region of NC, VA appears to be really getting it's act together.

Folks in that area and stretching east further east into the Inner Coastal Plain and Tidewater Regions of North Carolina and Virginia will certainly not be letting their guard down through this evening.

A high risk is a high risk.



for sure. been telling folks that all day. unfortunately, it's prom weekend in a lot of NC. Lots of activity today amongst the youngsters.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
The main reason for the extra concern here is because the low level jet and shear are so high. However everything else for severe weather other than that isn't that great.


Now like I said, I'm not downplaying it. The severe weather threat is still bad, I'd be all hyped if I lived in those areas lol. Its just a high risk usually means a shockingly bad severe weather outbreak.


haha, im hyped, im just in mdrte but oh well.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


R9 hooking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The HIGH risk implies that a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with large coverage of severe weather and the likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events). The HIGH risk category is reserved for the most extreme events with the least forecast uncertainty, and is only used a few times each year.
SPC Products/Risk
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The main reason for the extra concern here is because the low level jet and shear are so high. However everything else for severe weather other than that isn't that great.


Now like I said, I'm not downplaying it. The severe weather threat is still bad, I'd be all hyped if I lived in those areas lol. Its just a high risk usually means a shockingly bad severe weather outbreak.
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Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting Dodabear:


Where do you see a PDS has been issued?? I can't find it.











SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SOUTH
HILL VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT...AND THE S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH NC
INTO VA. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS MOIST AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-450
M2/S2 AND ANTICIPATED DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGESTS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...MEAD
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Quoting TarheelNMiami:


definitely. east of Greensboro is going nuts. one reported on the ground in Alamance.


Yeah I'm most worried about the cells in North Central NC and eastern SC. There is a very powerful cell in SC with strong rotation, I'm expecting a tornado warning on it, I'll be shocked if one isn't issued for it.

Also, I believe the severe threat will be highest in Eastern NC and Eastern SC. Conditions for severe weather grows as you head further east into the Carolinas.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah maybe with a history of this system doing what it did yesterday, they are on high alert. I just personally believe a PDS is overdoing it.


Where do you see a PDS has been issued?? I can't find it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
They are probably severe because of the strong winds associated with them,we already have gusty winds here in northeast N.C. without any storms yet. The storms could weaken as they approach the Atlantic coast,because of the winds coming out of the south-east bringing in cool air from the ocean.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah maybe with a history of this system doing what it did yesterday, they are on high alert. I just personally believe a PDS is overdoing it.

Back in 1984 a breakout of tornadoes killed 57 people in NC/SC. That, combined with the history of this storm, is why there's so much antsyness.
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4mb pressure falls on the NC/VA border over the last 2 hours-with strong (15-20 knots) backed surface winds.



May want to wait a bit to see what happens this afternoon when the warm sector gets squoze down between the surface boundaries and we get some daytime heating.

Is it worth a high risk? Don't know-but Moderate is bad enough-yes?
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wow, the Doc commented on the eye. cool, a couple of us were posting about that yesterday, guess it was significant after all :)

so that made me smile... but then there's everything else :(
man, i sure hope folks stay safe through the rest of this!!
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Quoting Jedkins01:
The worst of the activity is definitely in North Central NC. It appears there may be more then one tornado there.


definitely. east of Greensboro is going nuts. one reported on the ground in Alamance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
There are definitely some very nasty cells in North Carolina, but I just don't see any reason there should be a high risk there today.

That doesn't mean I don't think it should be taken seriously by any means. It is a very serious severe weather situation and people must be careful.


Also, there are some cells in Virginia that just look lame to me, hardly any of the cells in Virginia look severe or even strong at all yet they all have warnings, even the ones under 50 DBZ. There are a couple very nasty ones in south Virginia that definitely are severe but that seems about it to me.

It would seem to me many of these cells up into Virginia may be elevated too, which lowers the risk of them doing damage.



Maybe I'm completely missing something here, but it just seems quite weird to me.


Judging by what this system has done elsewhere I would be very hesitant to discount it's potential for mischief.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:


It could be overdone a bit, but at the same time, I don't think they were anticipating nearly 380 severe Storm reports Yesterday with over a quarter of them tornadoes.

Like you, I've also seen much greater upper-air and lifting mechanisms in place that warrant bad outbreaks. My guess is that they are probably just airing on the side of caution with a "better to be safe than sorry" mentality.


Yeah maybe with a history of this system doing what it did yesterday, they are on high alert. I just personally believe a PDS is overdoing it.
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The worst of the activity is definitely in North Central NC. It appears there may be more then one tornado there.
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33 RandomText "I have a feeling none of us are going to recognize America in a few more years.
We're going to have the most drastic economic and social changes in my life time, and I'm convinced most of it is not going to be for the better in terms of quality of life.
"

Been happening since Guiliani was the mayor of NewYorkCity -- starting with industrial warehouses turned into artists lofts which eventually led to gentrification of blighted neighborhoods -- just didn't recognize then that the trend was also the leading edge of the future.

Why waste a significant portion of your life commuting to&from your job when there is an viable alternative?
Why waste time&money on driving whenever ya wanna do "something special"?
Why waste money on cars to go shopping when using subways and taxi service is as fast as driving and significantly cheaper besides?

And living in dense cityscapes (as represented by NYC...but not by LA) is vastly more energy efficient than living in the suburbs and exurbs, even after one excludes the cost of commuting.
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There are definitely some very nasty cells in North Carolina, but I just don't see any reason there should be a high risk there today.

That doesn't mean I don't think it should be taken seriously by any means. It is a very serious severe weather situation and people must be careful.


Also, there are some cells in Virginia that just look lame to me, hardly any of the cells in Virginia look severe or even strong at all yet they all have warnings, even the ones under 50 DBZ. There are a couple very nasty ones in south Virginia that definitely are severe but that seems about it to me.

It would seem to me many of these cells up into Virginia may be elevated too, which lowers the risk of them doing damage.



Maybe I'm completely missing something here, but it just seems quite weird to me.
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hey xcool :)....what is in that map on post 31?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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