Oddball Vince; new Puerto Rico development

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Vince is definitely an oddball storm. First of all, it's ridiculous that we're up to a "V" storm in early October. Second of all, Vince formed in a very unusual location--off the coast of Portugal. No known tropical storm has ever formed so far north and east. Thirdly, Vince formed in a region where water temperatures were only about 24 C--usually, 26 C is needed! Fourthly, Vince is incredibly tiny--and was a hurricane for about 12 hours!



Vince is in a strange location, but not unprecedented. Vince is pretty far east--16.6 West longitude at the 5am EDT advisory--but there have been hurricanes that have been even further east than Vince. For example, in 1965, Hurricane Carol made it to 16 West near the coast of Portugal before being downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression. And in 1961, Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland as a Category 1 hurricane, passing longitude 8 West before losing hurricane characteristics. So, Vince's location isn't unprecedented. But this sure is a weird exclamation mark to put on the end of a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season!

Vince won't be with us for long, and is already starting to rapidly decay. He's over cold 23C waters now, and wind shear from the northwest has blown away all the convection on that side, exposing the low-level center. A cold front approaching Europe will pick up Vince Tuesday morning, and finish tearing Vince apart. Vince's remains should bring Portugal and Spain heavy rains and winds gusts to 45 mph on Tuesday. Portugal gets the remains of tropical storms every 5 - 10 years, on average. This occurred most recently in October 1998 with Jeanne.

New development near Puerto Rico
A strong upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is creating a large curved band of disturbed weather from the Bahamas through the central Caribbean to the Leeward Islands. A surface low pressure area has developed just south of Puerto Rico this morning in association with this area, and has rotated northeastward to the east side of Puerto Rico. Some spiral banding has developed to the southeast of this low, and this low will have to be watched for signs it is turning into a tropical depression. This morning, sustained winds of 27 mph, gusting to 33 mph, were observed at St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. Although wind shear is too high today to support a tropical depression developing in this area, most of the global computer models predict that a tropical storm will form from this disturbed area of weather later this week and move north to threaten Bermuda.


Figure 2. Current radar out of Puerto Rico shows some spiral banding developing in association with a low to the east of the island.

The tropical disturbance we've been following about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands remains disorganized, and is not expected to develop in the next two days.

Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains in the 1000 - 2000 range. Most of these deaths occurred in the Lake Atitlan area (see wunderphoto below). Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time.

For those of you who want to help out, I suggest a donation to the Guatemalan Red Cross:

Intermediary Bank
CITIBANK
399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK N.Y. 10043
U.S.A.
ABA 021000089
SWIFT CITIUS33

Paying institution:
Banco del Cafe, S. A. Guatemala
Account 36009832
swift CAFBGTGC

For final credit to:
Cruz Roja Guatemalteca Acct Number 81-03-44361-0

The next update will be Monday by 4 pm, or earlier if the Puerto Rico low develops.

Jeff Masters

Lake Atitlan, Guatemala (KatieC)
"the most beautiful lake in the world" A Huxley
Lake Atitlan, Guatemala

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 177 - 127

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

177. cgableshurrycanegal
8:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
skyepony et al, when the time comes to oppose the bill, let us know the most efficient way. I can make life miserable for elected officials, and I can also send out info to an awful lot of friends across the Internet, so just prepare us amateurs for the attack!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
176. leftyy420
8:45 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
also sky that problem with level 3 and cognet has no effect on me. when ti went down i had no effect on my isp. and that was not the problem i was having. its likley a server somewhere was restarted and i had to wait till it was resolved. only some intedfrnet users will be affected by the whole level 3 cognet fued. sop sorry if ur one of them but it has no effect onme and if it was not for others complaining i would have not known about it.


second what i experienced with the nws page not opening is not what will happen if the bill is passed. instead the data will be in sych a way amatuers could not decipher it. so opnce again it would have no impact on me, i think its just a govt funding of private corps which is why the bill will never get passed
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
175. cgableshurrycanegal
8:43 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
tornadoty, the one and the same Robertson I do believe...
As Dr. Jeff referenced The Raptures... what with all the crises, there will be some that say the End Times are upon us...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
174. cgableshurrycanegal
8:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
socal!!! ROFL!!! You DO have a point!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
173. JupiterFL
8:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I know I have done the same thing. Thats what makes it so funny.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
172. weatherwannabe
8:40 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
what was it you were trying to say about our bet? That a hurricane had to be IN the gulf - that was a funny post. We both know what the bet was - no cat 3+ means you lose - and you know what that means.
171. cgableshurrycanegal
8:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Jupiter, sometimes I've posted three times in a row. You think someone else might be on, and you're waiting to see if anyone responds... then when you see you're the only one sending out the posts you start to feel silly ::VBG::
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
170. leftyy420
8:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
sky i already know about the bill. i knew about it in april qwhen it first got intrpdufec but thanks
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
169. sunshinestate
8:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
new blog up
168. weatherwannabe
8:38 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
hey lefty
167. Dunhill3
8:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I live near Disney. It's common knowledge here that they already have their own weather machine. They were even open during the hurricanes last year....we evacuated there.
166. Skyepony (Mod)
8:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Leftyy ~ I repost for you~
developer's blog has good info on net troubles today. ~Leftyy That's what trying to connect to the NOAA site will be like if our weather info gets privitized. I made a blog (click on my name to get there), it's got the Bill in a committee on there. Get informed so Leftyy & us don't lose our best info!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
165. JupiterFL
8:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I know. I am not really that rude; just joke around about lots of things. Like skyepony and his "bill" posts all day long. Like we missed it the first 5 times.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
164. Skyepony (Mod)
8:35 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
With the weather wars machine we'd never see it rain at Disney again (well except when thier closed)lol
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
163. leftyy420
8:34 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
thanks guys it opens now. must have been a net hiccup lol. its my home page so it was wierd when i got that error as i alwsya have it open and never had a problem with it befor
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
162. Dunhill3
8:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
The sad part of the bill is that they will actually take time and debate it and vote on it. And you thought some of the people here were out in left field.
161. socalweathernut
8:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Yes, It is about 60% here today. Really muggy for here.
Member Since: September 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
160. weatherwannabe
8:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
see I just think it's good sport to challenge the blog expert, I never said I knew anything. Just a lucky guesser here.
159. tornadoty
8:31 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Isn't Robertson the same dork that said the president of Venezuela should be assassinated?
158. Dunhill3
8:31 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Is that a guy from So Cal commenting on humidity? What would you know about humidity? Whats the worse it gets there? Like 11%
157. weatherwannabe
8:31 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
JupiterFL - just kidding Im really not an old grouchy geeser
156. Skyepony (Mod)
8:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
how about the bill (i think it's already in house of rep.) that Jeremey found Link It's a bill to modify the weather.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
155. weatherwannabe
8:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Dunhill3 I think it is called intelligent design or something like that
154. socalweathernut
8:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
cgables,
At least your humidity dropped below 90%. It is getting better.
Member Since: September 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
153. JupiterFL
8:29 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I usually read the posts in the morning before work.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
152. weatherwannabe
8:28 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
JupiterFL, how would you know that? LOL
151. sunshinestate
8:26 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
can open it here.......probably has something to do with your ISP routing.

BTW, JupiterFL U have mail!
150. Dunhill3
8:25 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
The next phase will be to ask for money, so he can stop it.
149. JupiterFL
8:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
That guy has lost his mind.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
148. Dunhill3
8:23 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
You want weather related and interesting? Try The Rev. Pat Robertson's theory. Hurricanes, mudslides and earthquakes...mix in bird flu. The good Reverend says it's the beginning of the end. Debate that on the blog.
147. JupiterFL
8:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Wannabe,
Just to add to that. I love it when you read the posts at night and the same person posts 10 times in a row because no one else is awake. Are they talking with themselves?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
146. weatherwannabe
8:20 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hey I'm just waiting for something interesting to happen that's weather and not blog related.
145. cgableshurrycanegal
8:19 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
can access local NWS here...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
144. JupiterFL
8:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I guess they let me open the link because I am in on the big conspiracy. Its a map of the US with different flood watch and severe weather watch areas highlighted in various colors.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
143. cgableshurrycanegal
8:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
UGH. The vital stats here... (don't you LOVE the elevation???)
I, too, would LOVE a break from the heat, way boring!
Miami, Florida
Elevation: 7 ft / 2 m
91 F / 33 C
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 102 F / 39 C
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: 75 F / 24 C
Wind: 4 mph / 6 km/h Variable
Pressure: 29.75 in / 1007 hPa

Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
141. Skyepony (Mod)
8:16 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
developer's blog has good info on net troubles today. ~Leftyy That's what trying to connect to the NOAA site will be like if our weather info gets privitized. I made a blog (click on my name to get there), it's got the Bill in a committee on there. Get informed so Leftyy & us don't lose our best info!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
140. JupiterFL
8:16 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Wannabe now that was funny. I like posts like that because they make me laugh.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
139. Weathermandan
8:15 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
138. Dunhill3
8:14 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
No... The PR blob will not turn into anything menacing. In fact, nothing is going to turn into anything menacing for the east coast of FL this year....I'm tired of the heat...I'm tired of this absurd tropical season..I'm tired of watching the tropics...I'm tired of reading this blog.so I'm declaring the season over for Florida...Continue to post and speculate...but any more tropical crap can follow Vince and just head to europe. Let those pasty SOB's deal with whatevers left out there.
137. Weathermandan
8:14 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
leftyy I got the same thing when I clicked it
136. weatherwannabe
8:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal, exactly. Thank God there is another adult here.
135. weatherwannabe
8:12 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
anyway, this blog is great for laughs. Lefty sits here all day and night watching every fog bank from Texas to Africa. There is the hourly inevitable "we got a new monster forming" post follwed by hundreds of worthless observations about nonexistent recon and poorly interpreted satellite pics to follow until Masters makes a new professional post that discredits everything for the last 5 hours. Then you all start al over. LOL - I love this blog
134. leftyy420
8:11 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
brb, gotta finish cooking
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
133. leftyy420
8:10 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
cane, i have been talking for days of a cyclone that will form by pr. this system will not threaten florida. it will threaten the mid-atlantic if it threatens the us at all. right now it appears it will likely be a fish storm but that could change
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
132. leftyy420
8:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
it goves me this error when i go to weather.gov

Information Alert



Status : 502 Bad Gateway

Description : DNS Name Server Is Unreachable. This may be because there is no DNS server configured on the proxy server.


Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
131. caneman
8:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Will the PR blob possibly develop into something menacing and threaten the treasure cost of FL?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
130. cgableshurrycanegal
8:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
the critiques of 888 could have been made privately to his blog.
Would the rest of you stop with the sniping already? sheesh
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
129. tornadoty
8:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Never mind, it is down. My mistake.
128. leftyy420
8:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
nope, can;t open it. might be my isp but everything else on the noaa site works just can;t open weather.gov
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
127. JupiterFL
8:08 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Yeah,
I tried it 3 times and it worked everytime.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

Viewing: 177 - 127

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.