Driest March in Texas history fueling huge fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on April 12, 2011

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Windy, dry and unstable weather conditions are expected for eastern Colorado and New Mexico, eastward to western Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas today--perfect weather for fires. Massive fires continue to rage out of control over large areas of Texas today. Over the past week, the fires scorched hundreds of square miles of rural Texas, destroyed dozens of homes, and sent one fire fighter to the hospital in critical condition. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 898,000 acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year. This is the 3rd highest burned acreage of the past decade; the record was set in 2006, when a remarkable 2 million acres had burned by April 12.


Figure 1. The Rock House Fire was burning out of control when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite acquired this image on April 10, 2011. Red boxes mark the location of active fires, and brown, charred land shows the fire.s path. A thin plume of smoke streams northeast from the fire front. The burn scar shows that the fire burned around the town of Fort Davis. As of April 12, the National Interagency Fire Center reported that this fire was 80,000 acres and was 0% contained. MODIS also detected a fire immediately northeast of the town of Alpine, in Brewster County, Texas. This fire was 25,000 acres and 0% contained on April 12. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The history of March drought conditions in Texas since 1895, as computed using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The PDSI factors in both precipitation and temperature to come up with a measure of drought severity. Values of the PDSI below -3 are classified as "extreme" drought, and below -4 is the highest classification of drought, "exceptional." This year's drought is the 16th worst March drought in Texas history. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

This year's fires caused by heat, drought, and La Niña
When the remains of Hurricane Alex drenched Texas last June, the welcome rains helped fuel a luxurious growth of vegetation across much of Texas during the summer. However, a very cold and dry winter killed off much of that vegetation, leaving plenty of fuel for this spring's fires. With Texas now experiencing the two highest categories of drought, extreme and exceptional, over 60% of its area, conditions are ripe for a record fire season. The percent of the contiguous U.S. covered by extreme and exceptional drought has more than tripled since the beginning of the year, and was near 9% on April 5, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. An extreme drought is declared when major damage to crops or pasture occurs or widespread water shortages and restrictions. Much of the blame for the drought conditions can be given to the La Niña event occurring the Eastern Pacific. La Niña deflects the jet stream such that the prevailing storm track misses the Southern U.S., leading to dryer and warmer conditions than average during winter and spring. According to the National Climatic Data Center, March 2011 was the driest March and 17th warmest March in Texas since 1895. Temperatures averaged 2 - 6°F above average over most of the state, but over the western portion of the state, where the worst wildfires are burning, temperatures averaged between 6 - 10°F above average. Del Rio has reported only 0.31 inches of precipitation for October - March, the 2nd driest since 1906. Austin reported its 5th driest October - March since 1856, and San Antonio came in as the 12th driest October - March since 1871. Over the last 198 days, from September 26 - April 11, Midland, TX has had measurable precipitation on just five days. Midland's precipitation so far this year stands at just 0.11", compared to a normal of 1.70".


Figure 3. Drought map for April 7, 2011. Image credit: drought.gov.


Figure 4. Winter wheat production for 2010 was heavily concentrated in northern Texas, western Oklahoma, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado, areas strongly impacted by this year's drought. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Drought threatens the winter wheat crop
This spring's drought is heavily impacting the U.S. winter wheat crop, which is concentrated in much of the drought-stricken region (Figure 4.) Winter wheat, which is planted in the fall and harvested in June, accounts for 70% of all wheat plantings in the U.S. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations estimated in March that the 2011 U.S. wheat crop would be 56.6 million tons, 6% less than last year, and the smallest crop since 2007, thanks to the drought. The U.S. wheat crop represents about 8% of the world's total, so a significant reduction of the wheat crop in the U.S. due to a continuation of the spring drought could cause a several percent reduction in the world's wheat supply. Global food prices fell slightly in March, according to the FAO, but still remained among the highest levels since 1990. The drought in the winter wheat areas of the U.S. will create added pressure to this year's high global food prices.


Figure 5. The drought forecast for April, May, and June 2011, issued by NOAA on April 7, calls for drought to spread northwards into all of Kansas and most of Nebraska, and also westwards into most of Arizona and Colorado. Image credit: drought.gov.

A dry forecast
The drought in Texas is likely to get much worse and spread northwards and westwards over the coming months, and will probably rank as one of the top five droughts in Texas history by the time summer arrives. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little or no precipitation for the drought region over the next week, with the next chance of significant rains coming April 19 - 20. The latest 1-month and 3-month outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center show above-average chances for warm and dry conditions over the drought region extending into summer. La Niña conditions are expected to wane and become neutral by June, but the influence of La Niña on the atmosphere will stay strong through June, keeping the preferred storm track north of Texas and causing below-average rains to the drought region. Real relief from the drought of 2011 will likely only occur when hurricane season starts to get going, bringing moisture-laden tropical disturbances or tropical cyclones to the Texas coast in June and July.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Smoke-filled Sky over Jacksboro, TX (luna9878)
Grassfires in Jack County, just seven miles southwest the town of Jacksboro, burned thousands of acres and claimed several homes. Humidity was only 12%, and winds were gusting out of the south at 30 MPH. 3-11-2011
Smoke-filled Sky over Jacksboro, TX
Sunday afternoon (cjmorrow)
Fires still burning,
Sunday afternoon
Tuesday evening (cjmorrow)
Bent county fire still burning. About 4 miles east of town.
Tuesday evening
Got Dust ? (docshovel39)
My wife's grandfather lived through the dust bowl . He called it the
Got Dust ?
Dust Bowl 2011 (KSPackerBacker)
Not fog or clouds or rain, just dirt blowing in from CO. Taken around 6:15 pm.
Dust Bowl 2011

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452. MrMixon
8:59 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
451. hydrus
8:54 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
It's a rainy afternoon in here....

Pleny of moisture in your area....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
450. kwgirl
8:48 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
I will see you all tomorrow. Have a good night and play nice everyone.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
449. WeatherNerdPR
8:44 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
It's a rainy afternoon in here....

Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
448. hydrus
8:41 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting FFtrombi:
Looking like official neutral ENSO by possibly june, definately july. Latest weekly 3.4 is -0.36.
Neutral could mean more landfalling storms...jmo of course.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
447. WatchingThisOne
8:28 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah i read that, i thought the same thing,,,, does it mean they are willing to risk a crew on a tanker to fill it up with highly toxic discharge water. Where are they going to take this water?


The way things are going, we are going to end up with a tanker or three permanently at sea.

Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1263
446. hydrus
8:27 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Fox Chanel # 5....Sounds almost like the 1979 commercial...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
445. FFtrombi
8:26 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Looking like official neutral ENSO by possibly june, definately july. Latest weekly 3.4 is -0.36.
Member Since: November 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
444. ShenValleyFlyFish
8:23 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
I don't know about that last comment, but I realized the other day I haven't watched Fox channel in years. Even the local news I can't stand because of the over hype. I have been fascinated and terrified at the same time with volcanoes. I figure I was either an early vulcanologist or was thrown into a caldera as a sacrifice......Maybe that is why I am afraid of fire...though most my friends who know me say it is because I was burned as a witch...some friends huh?
Depends how many turns of the mandala you've been on. Could be all of the above. ;)
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
443. PlazaRed
8:16 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Heres a 6.1 to break the monotony:-

MAP

6.1

2011/04/13 19:57:24

39.587

143.357

11.2

OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
442. kwgirl
8:14 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting :-433. Neapolitan,

Whats Fox Channel?

Has anybody got a link to it so as we can sink into an abyss of oblivion where all news is supposedly modified to make it acceptable to the consuming masses; where any form of constructive thought and inventive discussion is overwhelmed by media based truth.

Ive asked around and nobody seems to know what this,'' Fox Channel,'' is, the nearest I could get was somebody who thought it might be a new type of masculine perfume!
In the Miami region it is channel 7.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
441. PlazaRed
8:12 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting :-433. Neapolitan,

Whats Fox Channel?

Has anybody got a link to it so as we can sink into an abyss of oblivion where all news is supposedly modified to make it acceptable to the consuming masses; where any form of constructive thought and inventive discussion is overwhelmed by media based truth.

Ive asked around and nobody seems to know what this,'' Fox Channel,'' is, the nearest I could get was somebody who thought it might be a new type of masculine perfume!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
440. hydrus
8:08 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Somebody else was saying that Friday could get quite ugly. If a squall line does not form, the chances of numerous super-cellular thunderstorms goes way up..And the chance of long track tornadoes....I,ll take the squall line any day.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
438. hydrus
8:02 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
It is rather warm and potent..We are looking at yet another severe weather outbreak..I am growing weary of these systems. This will be the 7th in a short period of time. My place has taken a beating for the past two years...There are more strong systems coming if the models pan out..I went through 3 hurricanes in less than two months in Florida....That weird feeling hit me again when I visited the S.P.C. site today....Am I venting.?..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
436. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:31 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 09-20102011
22:00 PM RET April 13 2011
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression 9 (1000 hPa) located at 28.6S 48.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
70 to 250 NM from the center with gradient effect

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 450 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 29.9S 48.0E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS: 30.8S 46.9E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS: 33.9S 47.4E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 38.9S 51.0E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
======================

No Dvorak Analysis.

Satellite imagery shows a well-defined and partially exposed low level vortex, A convective band is present in the southern semi-circle of the system and wraps fairly closely from the center, but difficulty persists. At this location, ASCAT swath 0557z is not centered on the system, but it is very likely that wind structure is asymmetric with a large strong wind half-ring reaching 35-40 knots with gradient effect from 70-250 NM from the center and weaker winds at about 25-30 knots in the northern semi-circle that justify the subtropical depression stage.

The system still evolves in a baroclinic environment (cold upper level low and lower than usual dynamical tropopause) with good upper level divergence preserves convection in hte southwestern edge is phasis with a weak vertical wind shear on the trough axis. These conditions are expected to remain temporarily, so system should keep this stage or slightly deepen.

Available numerical weather prediction models forecast that the system keeps a south southwestward movement for the next 36t hours and beyond recurve southeastward. Until Friday evening, upper level conditions are favorable and the low could a little deepen, despite colder sea surface temperature (25-26C) towards the south. It is possible that the subtropical system temporarily evolves to a tropical structure if convection increases near the center and persists. On an after 48-60 hours, the system should begin its extratropical transition in the westerly circulation of the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
435. kwgirl
7:21 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

I wouldn't say "due"; many geologists and vulcanologists believe the recent period megaeruptions at Yellowstone are over with for at least the next several million years, as a far thicker layer of crust now overlies the magma plume, obviously making any such eruption far more difficult.

But, yes, a megaeruption at Yellowstone--or anywhere else--would definitely cool things off for awhile. Of course, there'd be fewer plants to absorb all the extra CO2 we'd be pushing into the atmosphere to stay warm and lit, so once the aerosols and particulates disappeared, the heating would resume again in earnest. Bottom line: only the wackiest denialist would be hoping for a megaeruption to throw them a line. It's far better to wise up and stop burning fossil fuels now.

P.S.--you're right to question the validity of anything you hear on Fox; watching that network makes you demonstrably dumber.
I don't know about that last comment, but I realized the other day I haven't watched Fox channel in years. Even the local news I can't stand because of the over hype. I have been fascinated and terrified at the same time with volcanoes. I figure I was either an early vulcanologist or was thrown into a caldera as a sacrifice......Maybe that is why I am afraid of fire...though most my friends who know me say it is because I was burned as a witch...some friends huh?
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
434. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:14 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

I wouldn't say "due"; many geologists and vulcanologists believe the recent period megaeruptions at Yellowstone are over with for at least the next several million years, as a far thicker layer of crust now overlies the magma plume, obviously making any such eruption far more difficult.

But, yes, a megaeruption at Yellowstone--or anywhere else--would definitely cool things off for awhile. Of course, there'd be fewer plants to absorb all the extra CO2 we'd be pushing into the atmosphere to stay warm and lit, so once the aerosols and particulates disappeared, the heating would resume again in earnest. Bottom line: only the wackiest denialist would be hoping for a megaeruption to throw them a line. It's far better to wise up and stop burning fossil fuels now.
don't worry we will stop using them when we reach the bottom of the barrel sort of speak as we deplete all oil supplies on the surface
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
433. Neapolitan
7:09 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
Well I think we have been seeing shifts in the plates. If the pacific plate moves, then the north american plate is going to move. Or at least to my simple mind. And I don't understand, if there was a large enough eruption, I thought it would bring on an ice age. Maybe not the one 70,0000 years ago, but surely the one 600,0000 years ago. And I believe that is the type we are due for, if it really runs in cycles.

I wouldn't say "due"; many geologists and vulcanologists believe the recent period megaeruptions at Yellowstone are over with for at least the next several million years, as a far thicker layer of crust now overlies the magma plume, obviously making any such eruption far more difficult.

But, yes, a megaeruption at Yellowstone--or anywhere else--would definitely cool things off for awhile. Of course, there'd be fewer plants to absorb all the extra CO2 we'd be pushing into the atmosphere to stay warm and lit, so once the aerosols and particulates disappeared, the heating would resume again in earnest. Bottom line: only the wackiest denialist would be hoping for a megaeruption to throw them a line. It's far better to wise up and stop burning fossil fuels now.

P.S.--you're right to question the validity of anything you hear on Fox; watching that network makes you demonstrably dumber.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
432. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:08 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
sorry for caps
lock was on
posted before realizing it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
430. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:06 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting beell:
Friday looks pretty tough. Much greater risk than the Thursday severe. I'd bet on discrete mode over MS/AL and parts of TN.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK O
F SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY CREATING STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM BEGIN THE DAY 3 PERIOD WITH AN MCS LOCATED IN
THE MID-MS VALLEY DRIVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND INITIATE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO NCNTRL AL...MS AND
SE LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS SEEMS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MS AND WRN AL AT 21Z ON FRIDAY SHOW
IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON STORM MODE. IF A SQUALL-LINE WERE TO
DEVELOP INSTEAD OF MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION....THEN WIND DAMAGE
COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT
. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ECNTRL STATES. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS FOCUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
FURTHER NORTH IN TN AND KY BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A
STRONG COMPONENT OF THE JET IN THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT AND MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP
BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THEN A TORNADO OUTBREAK COULD OCCUR
IN PARTS OF WRN TO MIDDLE TN...MS AND AL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK REMAINS CONDITIONAL AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RAISE UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING
THE EXACT SCENARIO.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IN SPITE OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...A STRONG WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. A
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE OH VALLEY DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE RETURN.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2011
SUPERCELLUAR WITH POSS EF3 LONG TRACK TORNADOES THIS NEXT ROUND WELL MIGHT HAVE A BIT OF A KICK TOO IT MAYBE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
429. beell
7:03 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Friday looks pretty tough. Much greater risk than the Thursday severe. I'd bet on discrete mode over MS/AL and parts of TN.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK O
F SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY CREATING STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM BEGIN THE DAY 3 PERIOD WITH AN MCS LOCATED IN
THE MID-MS VALLEY DRIVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND INITIATE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO NCNTRL AL...MS AND
SE LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS SEEMS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MS AND WRN AL AT 21Z ON FRIDAY SHOW
IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON STORM MODE. IF A SQUALL-LINE WERE TO
DEVELOP INSTEAD OF MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION....THEN WIND DAMAGE
COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT
. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ECNTRL STATES. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS FOCUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
FURTHER NORTH IN TN AND KY BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A
STRONG COMPONENT OF THE JET IN THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT AND MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP
BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THEN A TORNADO OUTBREAK COULD OCCUR
IN PARTS OF WRN TO MIDDLE TN...MS AND AL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK REMAINS CONDITIONAL AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RAISE UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING
THE EXACT SCENARIO.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IN SPITE OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...A STRONG WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. A
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE OH VALLEY DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE RETURN.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2011
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
428. kwgirl
7:00 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting iceagecoming:


On the opposite end of the spectrum, if it were from
CNN or NPR then I would really suspect a sham.
However, this is a very well known and accurately recorded geologic event. It's eruption however does
not reflect or coincide with the 100,000 year glaciation
but with the movement of the North American Plate

Link
Well I think we have been seeing shifts in the plates. If the pacific plate moves, then the north american plate is going to move. Or at least to my simple mind. And I don't understand, if there was a large enough eruption, I thought it would bring on an ice age. Maybe not the one 70,0000 years ago, but surely the one 600,0000 years ago. And I believe that is the type we are due for, if it really runs in cycles.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
427. Minnemike
6:56 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
thanks Rasta and Skye... curiosity fed ;)
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
425. iceagecoming
6:30 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
Neat Article, though I do suspect it since it came from Fox News LOL. When Yellowstone erupts, it will be an earth changing event. Maybe that is the ONLY thing that will cool this planet. I am really torn. I would love to see it happen, but I don't want to be around when it happens....truly conflicted am I:)


On the opposite end of the spectrum, if it were from
CNN or NPR then I would really suspect a sham.
However, this is a very well known and accurately recorded geologic event. It's eruption however does
not reflect or coincide with the 100,000 year glaciation
but with the movement of the North American Plate

Link
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1061
424. Skyepony (Mod)
6:20 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting Minnemike:
do you know if such vigorous eddies are commonplace in the Epac, like the GOM loop current? i was impressed when i first noticed it, but not sure if it's 'anomalously' impressive..


Eddies are common in that area of the EPAC. There's another one rolling up along Mexico. That big one really is impressive though~don't see them with a full on eye like that much. Shows good height too.

Baha~That was dry through here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37820
422. kwgirl
5:51 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting P451:
A little off topic but it has been a topic of conversation in the past.



University of Utah

The volcanic plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano. Yellow and red indicate higher conductivity, green and blue indicate lower conductivity. Made by University of Utah geophysicists and computer scientists, this is the first large-scale 'geoelectric' image of the Yellowstone hotspot.



===

The gigantic underground plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano might be bigger than previously thought, a new image suggests.

The study says nothing about the chances of a cataclysmic eruption at Yellowstone, but it provides scientists with a valuable new perspective on the vast and deep reservoir of fiery material that feeds such eruptions, the last of which occurred more than 600,000 years ago.

Earlier measurements of the plume were produced by using seismic waves %u2014 the waves generated by earthquakes %u2014 to create a picture of the underground region. The new picture was produced by examining the Yellowstone plume's electrical conductivity, which is generated by molten silicate rocks and hot briny water that is naturally present and mixed in with partly molten rock.

"It%u2019s a totally new and different way of imaging and looking at the volcanic roots of Yellowstone," said study co-author Robert B. Smith, professor emeritus and research professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, and a coordinating scientist of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

===

Full Article

Neat Article, though I do suspect it since it came from Fox News LOL. When Yellowstone erupts, it will be an earth changing event. Maybe that is the ONLY thing that will cool this planet. I am really torn. I would love to see it happen, but I don't want to be around when it happens....truly conflicted am I:)
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421. VAbeachhurricanes
5:45 PM GMT on April 13, 2011


still gotta while till this really picks up
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420. wayfaringstranger
5:44 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Good afternoon all.
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418. BahaHurican
5:40 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Afternoon all.

Quoting Skyepony:


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
Just was thinking the same thing....

Looks like we will at least be having some cloud cover this p.m.... though the clouds don't look like they have much water in them....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
413. Minnemike
5:31 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
do you know if such vigorous eddies are commonplace in the Epac, like the GOM loop current? i was impressed when i first noticed it, but not sure if it's 'anomalously' impressive..
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
411. Skyepony (Mod)
5:21 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Past 30 days...


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37820
410. aquak9
5:01 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
gearst- go to the top of this blog, scroll down the right-hand side. There's a place in recommmended links that tells you how to do that.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
409. jitterboy
4:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

The images on the left show SSTs; the ones on the right show the depth of the 26.C line. That is, the depth to which waters statistically capable of TC development extend. The deeper the warm water, the greater the TCHP...

Thanks
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408. Gearsts
4:55 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Im sorry for being such a huge noob but how can i post loops from maps and all that?
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407. Neapolitan
4:50 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting jitterboy:


What are the two images for each year- are they different depths?

The images on the left show SSTs; the ones on the right show the depth of the 26.C line. That is, the depth to which waters statistically capable of TC development extend. The deeper the warm water, the greater the TCHP...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
406. jitterboy
4:46 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
The daily comparison for April 12:

2009

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2010

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2011

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3731





What are the two images for each year- are they different depths?
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405. hydrus
4:39 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Past 30 days...
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404. hydrus
4:38 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
Past 30 days...
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403. aquak9
4:37 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
not to be outdone, the Daily Warm-n-Fuzzy:

SWOON
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
402. Neapolitan
4:32 PM GMT on April 13, 2011
The daily comparison for April 12:

2009

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2010

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2011

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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