Weekend tornado outbreak causes heavy damage in Virginia, Iowa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

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Floods, fires, and tornadoes hammered the nation this weekend, a sure sign that April is here. The severe weather action began on Friday night in the mid-Atlantic when twin tornadoes touched down in Pulaski, Virginia. The twisters, one a strong EF-1 with 105 - 110 mph winds, and the other an EF-2 with 125 mph winds damaged 450 buildings, caused $8 million in damage, and injured eight people. The most significant day of the weekend tornado outbreak occurred on Saturday as a powerful storm over the Upper Midwest dragged a cold front through Iowa. Twenty-seven tornado reports were recorded in Iowa by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The most powerful of these tornadoes was the huge, 3/4 mile-wide tornado that plowed through the tiny town of Mapleton, Iowa on Saturday evening, leaving a trail of destruction 3.5 miles long. The tornado, preliminarily rated as an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds, flattened 20% of the town of 1200 residents and damaged half of the buildings. Fourteen were injured, but miraculously no one died. The severe weather continued on Sunday with seven reports of tornadoes over Wisconsin. The most serious was a tornado in Lincoln County, which destroyed or heavily damaged 30 buildings, and caused three serious injuries.


Figure 1. Tornado chaser video from Saturday's twisters over Iowa from tornadovideos.net.

More severe weather today
As the cold front that triggered the weekend's severe weather progresses eastwards across the U.S. today, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a wide swath of the Northeast and Southeast under their "slight" risk area for severe weather, one notch down from the "Medium" risk that was posted for Wisconsin on Sunday and Iowa on Saturday. Tuesday and Wednesday should be relatively quiet days for severe weather, but Thursday will see a renewed chance of a significant severe weather outbreak in the Oklahoma-Arkansas region, as a major new spring storm gathers strength over the Midwest.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center for Monday places much of the Northeast and Southeast in the "Slight" risk area for severe weather.

Tornado season near average so far this year
According to statistics compiled by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, 2011's tornado season has been near-average so far. The preliminary number of tornadoes reported as of April 10 was 301, and the six-year average from 2006 - 2010 was 339. Preliminary tornado counts are typically about 15% too high, so the actual number of confirmed tornadoes will end up being around 256. The peak part of tornado season is just getting started--typically, only 17% of the season's activity has occurred by April 10. The number of strong (EF-2 and EF-3) tornadoes has been rather low so far; the Mapleton tornado was just the seventh EF-3 of 2011. There have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes so far this year. The death toll of just three so far in 2011 is remarkably low for mid-April, a testament to good warnings and a good helping of luck.

Jeff Masters

Cold in April (Railheel)
Hail, wind, and rain came through with unknow damage as of now. did break windshilds.
Cold in April
Tornado-damaged house (ChrisAnthemum)
Early Tuesday morning, a tornado raked along Ararat Road in Pilot Mountain, NC, damaging several houses and downing many trees. A cleanup crew was working on this one when we drove by on Sunday.
Tornado-damaged house

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217. beell
11:48 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
click for discussion


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16722
216. emcf30
11:46 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Fox news reporting a possible fire at Fukushima power plant in one of reactor building after last quake
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
215. Jedkins01
11:45 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting beell:


LOL, not limited to Florida! I guess these will make to the storm reports page sooner or later. Checked right befor this post-nada.

This just in:

In a public information statement released late Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) says three tornadoes have been confirmed among the storms which passed during the early Monday morning event across north Texas.

An EF-1 tornado with winds of around 100mph touched down in Johnson County 2 miles from Rio Vista. Five homes were heavily damaged.
A second EF1 in Johnson County ripped the front off a store just west of Alvarado with other scattered damage we well.
A third tornado, also of EF1 intensity, was on the ground for a very short time in Kaufman County near Forney. It created a damage path of about 500 yards in length and 100 yards in width.

Dallas, Texas Examiner


Yeah your right I can't assume its just Florida that does that lol, I Just don't closely study every state so I wouldn't know how reporting goes in some other states.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
214. PlazaRed
11:40 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting:-211. Neapolitan

After reading this and what we were saying earlier, on this and on the last 'blog.'

They will probably have to invent the ''8'' on the scale before this lot is over, if it ever is?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
213. EYEStoSEA
11:36 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
<


Hydrus....where are ya in TN ?
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212. hydrus
11:34 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
<
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
211. Neapolitan
11:33 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Discussed earlier, but now official:

Japan to raise Fukushima crisis level to worst

The Japanese government's nuclear safety agency has decided to raise the crisis level of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant accident from 5 to 7, the worst on the international scale.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency made the decision on Monday. It says the damaged facilities have been releasing a massive amount of radioactive substances, which are posing a threat to human health and the environment over a wide area.

The agency used the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, or INES, to gauge the level. The scale was designed by an international group of experts to indicate the significance of nuclear events with ratings of 0 to 7.

On March 18th, one week after the massive quake, the agency declared the Fukushima trouble a level 5 incident, the same as the accident at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979.

Level 7 has formerly only been applied to the Chernobyl accident in the former Soviet Union in 1986 when hundreds of thousands of terabecquerels of radioactive iodine-131 were released into the air. One terabecquerel is one trillion becquerels.

The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.

Officials from the agency and the Nuclear Safety Commission will hold a news conference on Tuesday morning to explain the change of evaluation

NHK Article...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
210. PlazaRed
11:33 PM GMT on April 11, 2011


6.4 earthquake very near to Tokyo.

It looks like the show has moved to the capital area and the other one on the West coast doesn't seem connected but it might be a start to another group.

The whole area is in turmoil.

Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
209. hydrus
11:32 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The storms are growing quickly now. More forcing is taking place...NOAA just said a significant severe weather event is occurring..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
208. beell
11:32 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


That's odd that I never noticed it said that on the page, now I know. It does mention that the storm reports page is all preliminary. So that's why sometimes high tornado reports get narrowed down to just a few actual confirmed tornadoes by the NWS later, while like the event around here a couple weeks ago, there were actually more tornadoes confirmed by the NWS then reported by the public in the preliminary results at the SPC. It is weird that the public seems to lack in severe weather reporting around here. Maybe its because severe weather occurs locally every day in the wet season here without tornado watch boxes, sirens, severe weather risk highlights, or storm chasing so people don't make as big of a deal, they just think of it as typical afternoon storms. Whereas in many states in the plains or the south. It may be very long time before severe weather then all of the sudden there is an explosion of severe weather from storm systems all at once so it prompts more people there to report than here? I'm just blabbing here pretty much, but it does make me wonder.

I am not one to talk though, I have had severe weather damage in my neighborhood and very close to my house several times including wind damage to trees and fencing in my yard, yet Ive never reported any of it to the SPC. Maybe its a Florida thing to not report as much, lol.


LOL, not limited to Florida! I guess these will make to the storm reports page sooner or later. Checked right befor this post-nada.

This just in:

In a public information statement released late Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) says three tornadoes have been confirmed among the storms which passed during the early Monday morning event across north Texas.

An EF-1 tornado with winds of around 100mph touched down in Johnson County 2 miles from Rio Vista. Five homes were heavily damaged.
A second EF1 in Johnson County ripped the front off a store just west of Alvarado with other scattered damage we well.
A third tornado, also of EF1 intensity, was on the ground for a very short time in Kaufman County near Forney. It created a damage path of about 500 yards in length and 100 yards in width.

Dallas, Texas Examiner
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16722
207. emcf30
11:30 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
206. Neapolitan
11:27 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
A two-fer: the first on the west coast, the second and larger just a few dozen miles from Tokyo (closing Narita airport):

Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time

Monday, April 11, 2011 at 22:26:18 UTC
Tuesday, April 12, 2011 at 07:26:18 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.905N, 138.280E
Depth 5.7 km (3.5 miles)
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 30 km (18 miles) NNE of Nagano, Honshu, Japan
80 km (49 miles) NNE of Matsumoto, Honshu, Japan
91 km (56 miles) NW of Maebashi, Honshu, Japan
190 km (118 miles) NW of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 15.8 km (9.8 miles); depth /- 5.2 km (3.2 miles)
Parameters NST=185, Nph=194, Dmin=40.1 km, Rmss=0.92 sec, Gp= 83,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=8

----------------------------------------------

Magnitude 6.4
Date-Time

Monday, April 11, 2011 at 23:08:16 UTC
Tuesday, April 12, 2011 at 08:08:16 AM at epicenter

Location 35.406N, 140.542E
Depth 13.1 km (8.1 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

77 km (48 miles) ESE (112) from TOKYO, Japan
107 km (66 miles) S (177) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
173 km (107 miles) SE (129) from Maebashi, Honshu, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 14.7 km (9.1 miles); depth /- 6 km (3.7 miles)
Parameters NST=280, Nph=282, Dmin=246 km, Rmss=1.19 sec, Gp= 50,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
205. EYEStoSEA
11:27 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
.
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204. emcf30
11:26 PM GMT on April 11, 2011


Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
203. Jedkins01
11:24 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Storms have recently rapidly popped in Eastern PA, areas from that line east need to watch closely as well.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
201. Jedkins01
11:21 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The severe weather risk is looking nastier and nastier for Alabama while it looks to be decreasing in areas north of there based on convective trends on radar.

Watch out Birmingham, severe cells are headed your way.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
Quoting beell:


Appreciate the input, Jed.

I have posted the following a couple of times but at the risk of boring the rest of the blog I'll post it again. Quality control of storm reports is now in the hands of the user for the most part.

If you and I report the same event, it may not get "deduplicated" or filtered out in the final tally.

Please note: On March 8, 2011, the proximity space/time rule is no longer being utilized to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. All comments/remarks in the LSRs are captured on the raw files and the users can decide, for their own purposes, the best way to remove duplicate reports from the LSR's.

NWS Local Storm Reports


That's odd that I never noticed it said that on the page, now I know. It does mention that the storm reports page is all preliminary. So that's why sometimes high tornado reports get narrowed down to just a few actual confirmed tornadoes by the NWS later, while like the event around here a couple weeks ago, there were actually more tornadoes confirmed by the NWS then reported by the public in the preliminary results at the SPC. It is weird that the public seems to lack in severe weather reporting around here. Maybe its because severe weather occurs locally every day in the wet season here without tornado watch boxes, sirens, severe weather risk highlights, or storm chasing so people don't make as big of a deal, they just think of it as typical afternoon storms. Whereas in many states in the plains or the south. It may be very long time before severe weather then all of the sudden there is an explosion of severe weather from storm systems all at once so it prompts more people there to report than here? I'm just blabbing here pretty much, but it does make me wonder.

I am not one to talk though, I have had severe weather damage in my neighborhood and very close to my house several times including wind damage to trees and fencing in my yard, yet Ive never reported any of it to the SPC. Maybe its a Florida thing to not report as much, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BENEVOLA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARROLLTON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHPORT...TUSCALOOSA...HOLT...JENA...COKER...BRY ANT DENNY
STADIUM...MCFARLAND MALL...UNIVERSITY MALL...DEERLICK CREEK
CAMPGROUNDS AND LAKE WILDWOOD.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 62 THROUGH 89...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mainly severe T' storms no spinners yet not till ya see the whites of there eyes anywayand right now no white on radar sigs


I was just watching that purple triangle on WU Radar west of Tuscaloosa.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54332
Quoting jeffs713:

Those dry lines tend to be rather lackluster in convection, based on what I've seen. The ones that seem to have the most pop is when dry air is intruding in on moist air. Not sure about other parts of the country, but the cells that get their start on dry air intrusions like that tend to be some of the nastiest in N TX.


There is pretty much no such thing as a dry line in Florida :) lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
194. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


Alright, yeah those were the preliminary reports so that's why it only shows 6 tornado reports on the 31st when at least 9 separate tornadoes touched down in the Tampa Bay area with possibly 3 more that may be added to the list. That's a lot of tornadoes in a concentrated area. Yeah the date for the tornado event in Tampa Bay was the 31st(thursday) you got that right. And the one you just posted here was from the day before (wednesday the 30th).

It almost makes me wonder if just less people report severe weather to the NWS here in this part Florida sometimes. Is it possible that although 9 tornadoes touched down in the area all hitting areas with population, only 6 reports actually came in? I have sometimes heard of severe weather around here that doesn't show up on the SPC report list. I don't know I could be wrong here, just a thought.


Appreciate the input, Jed.

I have posted the following a couple of times but at the risk of boring the rest of the blog I'll post it again. Quality control of storm reports is now in the hands of the user for the most part.

If you and I report the same event, it may not get "deduplicated" or filtered out in the final tally.

Please note: On March 8, 2011, the proximity space/time rule is no longer being utilized to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. All comments/remarks in the LSRs are captured on the raw files and the users can decide, for their own purposes, the best way to remove duplicate reports from the LSR's.

NWS Local Storm Reports
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16722
Quoting TomTaylor:
weekly sst anomaly
Ouch! quite nasty for the Gulf,and around Florida/Bahamas area.If atmospheric conditions fall into place WATCH OUT!!!!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
mainly severe T' storms no spinners yet not till ya see the whites of there eyes anywayand right now no white on radar sigs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54332
Quoting twincomanche:
Where you at? My company has a plant in Grenada.


Grenada is about 125 mi north of me...:)
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
<
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54332
Oh shoot !! sorry, Twin... I'm south of 1-20 Brandon Ms
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Quoting twincomanche:
The word idiot seems to used rather loosely here this afternoon.
I just hate when forecasters underestimate a season just becuase it's going to look like it's nutreal or an El nino year.I'm sure people who were affected by the storms of 05/08 wouldn't give a damn becuase they felt the pain.The same thing can also be said for el nino years.2004/1992 are good exsamples.For people who were affected by Andrew,Charley,Frances,Ivan,and Jeanne.Oh let's not forget Gaston,and Alex wouldn't give a care if you said that that so,and so year was such and such.Yeah sure 2010 was active but people in america will FORGET IT!.Becuase not many in the United States were affected.However if their's more strikes on the U.S costline this year than last.I'm sure America won't be forgetting about 2011 anytime soon...People gotta remember.It's all about where the storms go and who they affect.Not how freaking active a season is.2010 was active blah blah.But people who weren't affected won't remember it.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Where's the black radar Keeper? People are always watching ...


Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Where's the black radar Keeper? People are always watching ...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting beell:


The verification graphics reflect reports received by 06Z the following day (i think!). Always subject to change with late reports and subsequent damage surveys.

And the one from the 30th since I got the date wrong.



Alright, yeah those were the preliminary reports so that's why it only shows 6 tornado reports on the 31st when at least 9 separate tornadoes touched down in the Tampa Bay area with possibly 3 more that may be added to the list. That's a lot of tornadoes in a concentrated area. Yeah the date for the tornado event in Tampa Bay was the 31st(thursday) you got that right. And the one you just posted here was from the day before (wednesday the 30th).

It almost makes me wonder if just less people report severe weather to the NWS here in this part Florida sometimes. Is it possible that although 9 tornadoes touched down in the area all hitting areas with population, only 6 reports actually came in? I have sometimes heard of severe weather around here that doesn't show up on the SPC report list. I don't know I could be wrong here, just a thought.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sometimes things don't work out as expected other times it proves to be more than forecasted in the end only thing that matters is word got out that something is coming how big or small is anyones guess


Oh I understand, I am just discussing this stuff because I like to haha, as I said earlier, I am not knocking the SPC. As I have experienced in school meteorology is a very, very complicated science, and I'm only just below halfway through the bachelors degree. A lot of these guys involved in the forecasts have gone way beyond into the graduate level. I very much appreciate what it takes to do this job and they do a great job considering how complicated the weather is. Whoever made computer models for weather are geniuses because modeling the weather is probably the hardest thing you could ever design a computer to predict.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
weekly sst anomaly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
179. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, the severe event the day before should have been the one that was Moderate in Central Florida. The one here on Thursday was significant in my area and was very concentrated in mostly 3 counties. However, I don't think that one should have been Moderate because it wasn't widespread enough despite that it was very bad here in Pinellas County. However I wasn't the person that said it was historic. It was not a historic outbreak. It was locally very nasty, but far from historic.

However, there is something very fishy about those severe reports. The NWS has confirmed at least 9 tornadoes in Just Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. An additional 3 possible tornadoes are still being surveyed. That being said, why does the SPC show only 6 tornado reports when at least 9 tornadoes were confirmed by the NWS in just 2 counties including.


I woulds agree though, although it was a significant severe weather event in Tampa Bay. It didn't stretch very far beyond Tampa Bay and so it wasn't widespread enough to be Moderate. But then again, the SPC sometimes does highlight very small areas in a Moderate risk right? If that's the case, the Tampa Bay area was certainly hit hard enough to be more significant than slight risk. But as I said, it still wasn't historic.

To comment on the second event you showed there, that was by far a high risk of severe. What is even more interesting is the very widespread reports in the Carolinas that weren't in any risk at all that day! What a crazy day indeed for the South.


The verification graphics reflect reports received by 06Z the following day (i think!). Always subject to change with late reports and subsequent damage surveys.

And the one from the 30th since I got the date wrong.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16722
Quoting Hoff511:


Well, If you compare weather patterns in Florida and California you would see differently. Air in CA is very still and desert-like most of the time. The famous smog in LA just builds up because the air does not move all summer. Except for the occasional early Santa Ana that fans the fires. Overall, CA is doing the best they can to keep it as clean as possible. If you experience true smog, you would join the fight. Better yet, go to China.
Also, California learned a very hard lesson in gold mining using Mercury in the mines. Because of that you still can't eat fish out of most rivers in CA.


That is true.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, the severe event the day before should have been the one that was Moderate in Central Florida. The one here on Thursday was significant in my area and was very concentrated in mostly 3 counties. However, I don't think that one should have been Moderate because it wasn't widespread enough despite that it was very bad here in Pinellas County. However I wasn't the person that said it was historic. It was not a historic outbreak. It was locally very nasty, but far from historic.

However, there is something very fishy about those severe reports. The NWS has confirmed at least 9 tornadoes in Just Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. An additional 3 possible tornadoes are still being surveyed. That being said, why does the SPC show only 6 tornado reports when at least 9 tornadoes were confirmed by the NWS in just 2 counties including.


I woulds agree though, although it was a significant severe weather event in Tampa Bay. It didn't stretch very far beyond Tampa Bay and so it wasn't widespread enough to be Moderate. But then again, the SPC sometimes does highlight very small areas in a Moderate risk right? If that's the case, the Tampa Bay area was certainly hit hard enough to be more significant than slight risk. But as I said, it still wasn't historic.

To comment on the second event you showed there, that was by far a high risk of severe. What is even more interesting is the very widespread reports in the Carolinas that weren't in any risk at all that day! What a crazy day indeed for the South.
sometimes things don't work out as expected other times it proves to be more than forecasted in the end only thing that matters is word got out that something is coming how big or small is anyones guess
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54332
Quoting beell:


There is truth to what you are saying. If you (and a couple of other Floridians) think this should have been a moderate risk and deemed "historically significant"...



Then this surely was a High risk-it never made it past "MDT".



Go figure.

*These are the SPC verification graphics based on the 06Z DAY 1 and the preliminary storm reports received by 06Z the following day.

Quoting beell:


There is truth to what you are saying. If you (and a couple of other Floridians) think this should have been a moderate risk and deemed "historically significant"...



Then this surely was a High risk-it never made it past "MDT".



Go figure.

*These are the SPC verification graphics based on the 06Z DAY 1 and the preliminary storm reports received by 06Z the following day.


Actually, the severe event the day before on Wednesday should have been the one that was Moderate in Central Florida. The one here on Thursday was significant in my area and was very concentrated in mostly 3 counties. However, I don't think that one should have been Moderate because it wasn't widespread enough despite that it was very bad here in Pinellas County. Also, I wasn't the person that said it was historic. It was not a historic outbreak. It was locally very nasty, but far from historic.

Additionally, there is something very fishy about those severe reports. The NWS has now confirmed at least 9 tornadoes in Just Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. An additional 3 possible tornadoes are still being surveyed. That being said, why does the SPC show only 6 tornado reports when at least 9 tornadoes were confirmed by the NWS in just 2 counties including me? Who knows...


I woulds agree though, although it was a significant severe weather event in Tampa Bay. It didn't stretch very far beyond Tampa Bay and so it wasn't widespread enough to be Moderate. But on the other hand, the SPC sometimes does highlight very small areas in a Moderate risk right? If that's the case, the Tampa Bay area was certainly hit hard enough to be more significant than slight risk. But as I said, it still wasn't historic.

To comment on the second event you showed there, that was by far a high risk of severe. What is even more interesting is the very widespread reports in the Carolinas that weren't in any risk at all that day! What a crazy day indeed for the South.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
severe weather coming soon the duck was at my house today!!
so seeing ducks means severe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54332
Here at my home in SCentral Ms, the line just pasted over us. Received a good pollen rinseing rain...no hail,some wind ( some limbs down, no trees down)....all in all...we're OTAY ! Hope others are as fortunate.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
170. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


True, its not so much the severe weather the last 2 days that doesn't warrant a Moderate risk that is the forecast bust. Its more of the severe weather events in the last few weeks including here in Central Florida as well as the deep South that definitely fit the Moderate risk at times even though they were labeled slight risk events.

But of course as a weather student, I am just starting to get hit hard by how complex this science is, so I appreciate what it takes to be a forecaster and I'm not bringing it up to criticize the SPC. I am just a person who observes and remembers lots of data about weather that most people don't care about lol. So I like to review actual weather and weather patterns compared to the forecast, including my own. That being said my realization of how much my forecasting fails helps me push harder to understand more about meteorology as I take harder classes.


There is truth to what you are saying. If you (and a couple of other Floridians) think this should have been a moderate risk and deemed "historically significant"...



Then this surely was a High risk-it never made it past "MDT".



Go figure.

*These are the SPC verification graphics based on the 06Z DAY 1 and the preliminary storm reports received by 06Z the following day.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16722
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually, California better start trying to make the air a lot more breathable, because the air here in Florida is exceedingly cleaner, and we aren't in red.


BTW, I can't imagine taxing fuel is really gonna do a whole lot of good towards moving forward with alternative energy. Sounds to me like just another way the government can squeeze regular Americans and make profit. If I see proof its being used towards positive things like to help fund scientific research or development of cleaner and better alternative energy technologies, then I won't be bothered by it as much.


Well, If you compare weather patterns in Florida and California you would see differently. Air in CA is very still and desert-like most of the time. The famous smog in LA just builds up because the air does not move all summer. Except for the occasional early Santa Ana that fans the fires. Overall, CA is doing the best they can to keep it as clean as possible. If you experience true smog, you would join the fight. Better yet, go to China.
Also, California learned a very hard lesson in gold mining using Mercury in the mines. Because of that you still can't eat fish out of most rivers in CA.
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Based loosely on what Neo posted earlier at 137.
We greatly appreciate this information and the research that acquires it.

All this info is very interesting but seems to mean nothing to the average sentient life form in the streets, as although we have a bit of an idea most people don't understand these terms and figures.

What I would suggest, {to the info suppliers,} is to state how long you would live if you were exposed to this kind of radiation for an hour, which is what most people can easily understand.

Now for something that is easy to grasp!The exclusion zone thing. The European news stated tonight that they might jack it out to 40 kilometer radius! They must really be worried.

According to an exclusion zone of 30 Kilometer radius, this takes out of the land area of Japan a total of 2827 square kilometers and not only that most of this is very good agricultural land in a country that doesn't have a surplus of it!!

Thanks for all the info. on tornadoes, amazing stuff for all of us who have never seen one.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
Quoting beell:
@156.

It is a little subjective, Jed, but it is not always tied to quantity. A couple of EF-3's along with a higher forecaster confidence will fill the bill.

Being a subjective assesment, you are sure entitled to an opinion!
:-)

The SPC's definition:

A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.
SPC Product Information


True, its not so much the severe weather the last 2 days that doesn't warrant a Moderate risk that is the forecast bust. Its more of the severe weather events in the last few weeks including here in Central Florida as well as the deep South that definitely fit the Moderate risk at times even though they were labeled slight risk events.

But of course as a weather student, I am just starting to get hit hard by how complex this science is, so I appreciate what it takes to be a forecaster and I'm not bringing it up to criticize the SPC. I am just a person who observes and remembers lots of data about weather that most people don't care about lol. So I like to review actual weather and weather patterns compared to the forecast, including my own. That being said my realization of how much my forecasting fails helps me push harder to understand more about meteorology as I take harder classes.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7566

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.