Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1734 - 1684

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

1734. hydrus
3:09 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



That is UTC time........that happened several hours ago, 4 hours ago.
These earthquakes are amazing..The energy being released is astounding to me...And we here in middle Tennessee are about to be nailed yet again with bad weather. Winds are gusting to over 30 already..img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/rgb-l. jp
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
1731. nrtiwlnvragn
2:09 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11209
1730. Jax82
2:03 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
It was 89 degrees in Jax beach yesterday, beating the old record by 7 degrees back in 1999. I cant complain though, I enjoyed it!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1729. aspectre
1:51 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
1723 fireflymom
"Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km
"

The latest USGS greater-than-magnitude5 list shows a 5.6 at 11:42:36 UTC
and rates the 8:16:16 earthquake as a magnitude6.6
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1728. fireflymom
1:51 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
It is a Monday appreciate the corrections.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
1727. AussieStorm
1:49 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting fireflymom:
Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km

USGS has downgraded that quake to a 6.6
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
1725. TampaSpin
1:35 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting fireflymom:
Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km



That is UTC time........that happened several hours ago, 4 hours ago.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1724. jeffs713
1:26 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Hrm, USGS hasn't posted anything on their map yet.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
1723. fireflymom
1:24 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
1722. jeffs713
1:21 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
If anyone has a magic wand that gets rid of a dry cap, please feel free to wave it towards the Houston area.

We have a frontal line coming through, but a very dry cap in place at about 850mb. Its not a warm cap (like usual), just a layer where the RH drops from 80% to 40% and under. If you could get rid of that cap, it would be great, we desperately need the rain.

How is everyone this morning?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
1721. fireflymom
1:17 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
By Associated Press, Monday, April 11, 8:59 AM

SENDAI, Japan 2014 A strong new earthquake 7.1 rattled Japan%u2019s northeast Monday as the government urged more people living near a tsunami-crippled nuclear plant to leave, citing concerns about long-term health risks from radiation.



Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
1720. TampaSpin
1:14 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1719. beell
1:12 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Not quite over yet. Especially if we get a surface low in western TN-or at least an inflection point (a bend or kink) in the convective line to back the low level surface winds.

Plenty of cool air in conjunction with the mid level trough coupled with the entrance region of a 60-70 knot jet and strong surface heating to make quick work of the cap.

A snippet of the latest outlook
(full outlook via link below)




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...PORTIONS OF TN/OH AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES
SHOWN ON 12Z BMX/JAN/BNA RAOBS. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF
UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO SEVERE
STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
.

LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER
KY/TN BY MID AFTERNOON
...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3KM SRH VALUES
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2...BUT ALSO SHOW A CONTINUED MID LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE NOT
UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY IF CONCERNS REGARDING THERMODYNAMICS ARE LESSENED
.
REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND
DAMAGE REMAINS FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MUCH OF MIDDLE TN/AL AND
SOUTHERN KY
. STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING...
13Z SPC DAY 1 Convective Outlook
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16715
1718. TampaSpin
1:11 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting IKE:

It was in the 90's here on Saturday.

Yeah the 6-10 day forecast is for below normal temps here and then it warms back to above normal by the last week of April. Summer weather for good is getting close.



Not many more days of cool weather for us IKE
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1717. TampaSpin
1:09 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting IKE:

Half the blog may have me on ignore by the end of the season.

................................................. .................................................

Extended forecast for the panhandle of Florida.....

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS
OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS
OFFERING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY...LIKELY MEANING THAT THE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE). DESPITE BEING A THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.






Lordy.....and me the other......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1715. IKE
1:08 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a couple of cool downs possible this weekend and next one as well on 19 and 20 april
It was in the 90's here on Saturday.

Yeah the 6-10 day forecast is for below normal temps here and then it warms back to above normal by the last week of April. Summer weather for good is getting close.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1714. aspectre
1:03 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
The recent magnitude6.6earthquake struck
42miles(~67.6kilometres) at 227.1degrees(SW) from FukushimaDaiichi
100miles(~161kilometres) at 23degrees(NNE) from centralTokyo

followed within 42minutes by a magnitude5.2 then a magnitude5.0
(as represented by the two unconnected dots)
And now yet another, a magnitude5.6 (near where the 6.6 struck)
45miles(~72.4kilometres) from FukushimaDaiichi
97miles(~156kilometres) from central Tokyo
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1713. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:02 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266
1712. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:58 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting IKE:

Half the blog may have me on ignore by the end of the season.

................................................. .................................................

Extended forecast for the panhandle of Florida.....

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS
OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS
OFFERING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY...LIKELY MEANING THAT THE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE). DESPITE BEING A THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.



a couple of cool downs possible this weekend and next one as well on 19 and 20 april
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266
1711. jeffs713
12:58 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Mornin', all!

Just curious, did admin pull out the ban stick this weekend and start beating people with it? I got a WU-mail from someone whom was banned, and it piqued my curiosity.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
1710. Gearsts
12:29 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1709. IKE
12:28 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey ike downcasting season is almost upon us


hehehehehe
Half the blog may have me on ignore by the end of the season.

................................................. .................................................

Extended forecast for the panhandle of Florida.....

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS
OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS
OFFERING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY...LIKELY MEANING THAT THE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE). DESPITE BEING A THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1708. PlazaRed
12:28 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting:-1686. Neapolitan

According to an exclusion zone of 30 Kilometer radius, this takes out of the land are of Japan a total of 2827 square kilometers and not only that most of this is very good agricultural land in a country that doesn't have a surplus of it!!

Next and soon, we will see what happens if the clouds of doom and gloom start to gather as the ''company'' now have a very good excuse to say they cant work on the 'problem,' due to new damage and therefore they cant be blamed any longer for what might transpire.
If I was in the board room I my might be saying how do we make a silk purse out of a sows ear with this new development and come up smelling of roses to say we were cheated within sight of a certain victory.

Doomcasters!!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2089
1707. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:24 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
hey ike downcasting season is almost upon us


hehehehehe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266
1706. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:22 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
Hi Keeper! Is your sunrise as bright as it is here?
overcast looks like rain warm 68 or 19c going to 22c or 74f
maybe some thunder later but i think most will stay to the south and east of me
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266
1705. IKE
12:22 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
There's hope for you aquak!!!!

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a west wind between 8
and 16 mph.

and.....

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1704. aquak9
12:22 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting IKE:

  • Oil 1.36

  • Price/barrel $111.66


Well that's better; we closed friday over $113.

-ooops, I'm supposta be ignoring you-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26038
1703. IKE
12:19 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
  • Oil 1.36
  • Price/barrel $111.66
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1702. aquak9
12:17 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Hi Keeper! Is your sunrise as bright as it is here?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26038
1701. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:14 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
good morning to all you bloggers out there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266
1700. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:13 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting surfmom:
Morning - checking in - great quote Neo~
"We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom." (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)

coulda /shoulda used more wisdom then greed b/4 this all happen. Wisdom ain't sham-wow when it comes to cleaning up a mess that will exist beyond our lifetimes.

GOOOD MORNING AQUA!!
maybe you mean scam-now

hello surfy good to see ya
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266
1699. aquak9
12:09 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
hi surfmom! great to see you!!!

(ignores ike)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26038
1698. PlazaRed
12:06 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
The Japan 1 month anniversary shocks are disturbing for sure.

There have been 10 so far in less than 3 hours including the first at 6.6.
A total of 9 of these new shocks are almost on top of each other!

It would seem that this new bunch of shocks over the last few days are forming a short line from the coast above the nuclear plant down to the Tokyo bay area, as there has been quite a lot of activity here. this may be a bad sign for the near future and with the Tokyo bay area maybe getting hit soon as well.
The big volcano near Tokyo also might fire up a bit as a consequence of all this activity.

So starting off with a 7.1 that was 4 days ago,there have been in excess of 30 shocks over 4.5 and this is a month after the main one at 9, so things don't seem to be quietening down yet.
Lets see what the experts have to say?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2089
1697. IKE
12:06 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

Quoting aquak9:
0.17, Ike.

Zero point flippin' one seven.

Oh yeah, I'm dancing in circles here.
LOL!

I'm sorry:(
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1696. aquak9
12:06 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
0.17, Ike.

Zero point flippin' one seven.

Oh yeah, I'm dancing in circles here.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26038
1695. surfmom
12:03 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Morning - checking in - great quote Neo~
"We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom." (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)

coulda /shoulda used more wisdom then greed b/4 this all happen. Wisdom ain't sham-wow when it comes to cleaning up a mess that will exist beyond our lifetimes.

GOOOD MORNING AQUA!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1694. IKE
12:02 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
Day 2 QPF

This one make you happy?:) Seventeen-hundredths of an inch forecasted...for a boat east of JAX!!!!!!!! LOL!


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1693. aquak9
11:58 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
you know I'm gonna complain about that QPF, Ike...didn't need to see that on a monday.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26038
1692. IKE
11:12 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
24 hour QPF...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1691. Xandra
11:01 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
My favorite quote from that article:

''We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom.'' (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)

A very good quote!
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
1690. WatchingThisOne
10:38 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
That quake cluster to the west of Iwaki is a bit disconcerting.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
1689. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:22 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't even know what to say.
ignore the ignorant
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1688. aquak9
10:19 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
oh well if I had READ BACK ~~

not bad for one just trying to read seismos, tho. It was one hard short-lived jolt, wobbly to begin with then CRACK, then it was all over.

Good morning dayshift.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26038
1687. aquak9
10:15 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
a decent jolt, near US or to the west? northern hemisphere?

USGS hasn't got it that I could find...short-lived, maybe a 5-6 mag?

someone with better eyes, take a look...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26038
1686. Neapolitan
10:00 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
Japan to expand evacuation areas near crippled nuclear plant

The government will expand evacuation districts near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, its top spokesman said Monday.

With the crisis at the plant dragging on, some municipalities within a 20- to 30-kilometer radius of the power plant will now be designated as additional evacuation areas, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said at a news conference.

The government had earlier ordered residents within the 20-km radius of the power station to evacuate and those in the 20-30 km zone to stay indoors after the plant was hit by a deadly earthquake and tsunami on March 11.

The municipalities which will be part of the new evacuation zone include Katsurao, Namie and Iitate, all located in Fukushima Prefecture. Residents in these municipalities will be expected to move to different areas within one month, Edano said.

Kyodo Article...

Reading between the lines: while the news media have largely packed up and moved on, the situation remains dire. The reactors are more stable than they were a few weeks ago--a very good thing--but workers are still stuck doing nothing more than pouring water on the rods in an attempt to keep them from melting down, the equivalent of holding their fingers in a massive dam to stop a flood. In a recent article, there were admissions that the situation may take months or even years to stabilize enough that cleanup and mitigation efforts can get underway. My favorite quote from that article:

''We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom.'' (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
1685. Neapolitan
9:48 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting Xandra:

The good, the bad and the ugly! ;)

Indeed. TEPCO says 220,000 are without power from today's one-month anniversary aftershock. The Japanese Weather Agency--which includes that country's version of the USGS--revised the quake to 7.0 from 7.1 (as opposed to the USGS, which, as I said a bit ago, revised it from 7.1 to 7.0).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
1684. Xandra
9:43 AM GMT on April 11, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

The good news: it was just updated to a 6.6.

The bad news: the quake was actually centered inland roughly midway between Sendai and Tokyo, and located at a fairly shallow 13.1km.

According to Kyodo, external power is "no longer available" at the Fukushima plant, so water injection has ceased. Uh-oh...

The good, the bad and the ugly! ;)
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281

Viewing: 1734 - 1684

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
54 °F
Overcast