Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I still bet a active season,conditions are somewhat like in 2005,but more like in 2008.I am predicting the season numbers:
14-20 NS
7-12 H
3-6 MH
1-3 cat5s

This guy has it right.
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Whoops. I missed seeing that was already posted in that loooong post.
:)
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Quoting 7080734:
Didn't expect a PDS Watch. Usually see that with a High Risk.

They trimmed the Tornado probabilities a bit.


Yep.
The watch includes a 90% prob of two or more tornadoes, 60% prob of one or more F2-F5.
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1331. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
OK now I'm seriously convinced these refs hate Miami.
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1329. hydrus
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice, man I wish I could learn the guitar, and many other instruments. I guess you can't have it all, Ive committed too much to the science world to have time to learn instruments. My hope still remains, that when I graduate college I will learn instruments and learn how to play my favorite music :)

Simple Man is one of my favorite songs, especially because in the world I'm in, the science world, people easily lose sight of the simple things life and make things overcomplicated. My roots are strong in simplicity and rural life, I take it with me wherever I am to balance out our world that doesn't know when to slow down.
..Pick up a cheapy, and just mess around in your spare time( which is limited because of studies of course) It is a stress reliever for sure..There is some severe weather coming soon....
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That Wisconsin cell with the warning is interesting, anyone else notice some slight rotation. I'm also watching the one near Cresco Iowa...
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1327. 7080734
Severe Thunderstorm warnings already up. That took only 10 minutes, geez.
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1325. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
KOG,

How much longer untill the start of hurricane season?
Hope we have invests every day, so there is no time to discuss.....
after today 49 days to go then hopefully we won't have to dicuss ....
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Tazmanian:






was that long post needed a link with the pohoto on top would have been better
By quoting it you just reposted it. Making this page even bigger...maybe next time refer to the post #

Just saying
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1323. SeALWx
Quoting Tazmanian:






was that long post needed a link with the pohoto on top would have been better

So you decided to quote the whole thing? Was that a good idea, Taz?
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1322. hydrus
Quoting emcf30:
When the cap breaks, i believe all of heck is going to break loose
Agreed.
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1321. 7080734
Didn't expect a PDS Watch. Usually see that with a High Risk.

They trimmed the Tornado probabilities a bit.
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Quoting Patrap:


Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MUCH OF WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
IMMINENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WI/MN BORDER INTO NERN IA. AIR
MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG...COUPLED WITH A VERY INTENSE WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS WITH ANY SUPERCELL. THERE IS
THE THREAT OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...HALES

WW0120 Radar
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High

Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MUCH OF WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

NUMEROUS TORNADOES
INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
IMMINENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WI/MN BORDER INTO NERN IA. AIR
MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG...COUPLED WITH A VERY INTENSE WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS WITH ANY SUPERCELL. THERE IS
THE THREAT OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...HALES

WW0120 Initial Radar image
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MUCH OF WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
IMMINENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WI/MN BORDER INTO NERN IA. AIR
MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG...COUPLED WITH A VERY INTENSE WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS WITH ANY SUPERCELL. THERE IS
THE THREAT OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...HALES

WW0120 WOU
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High

Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 102017
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

TORNADO WATCH 120 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC005-043-065-089-191-110400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0120.110410T2020Z-110411T0400Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON FAYETTE
HOWARD WINNESHIEK


MIC053-071-131-110400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0120.110410T2020Z-110411T0400Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GOGEBIC IRON ONTONAGON


MNC045-055-109-157-169-110400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0120.110410T2020Z-110411T0400Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FILLMORE HOUSTON OLMSTED
WABASHA WINONA


WIC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023 -031-033-035-
037-039-041-043-047-049-051-053-057-063-067-069-07 3-075-077-078-
081-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-099-103-107-109-11 1-113-115-119-
121-123-125-129-135-137-139-141-110400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0120.110410T2020Z-110411T0400Z/

WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ASHLAND BARRON
BAYFIELD BROWN BUFFALO
BURNETT CALUMET CHIPPEWA
CLARK COLUMBIA CRAWFORD
DOUGLAS DUNN EAU CLAIRE
FLORENCE FOND DU LAC FOREST
GRANT GREEN LAKE IOWA
IRON JACKSON JUNEAU
LANGLADE LA CROSSE LINCOLN
MARATHON MARINETTE MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE MONROE OCONTO
ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE PEPIN
PIERCE POLK PORTAGE
PRICE RICHLAND RUSK
SAUK SAWYER SHAWANO
ST. CROIX TAYLOR TREMPEALEAU
VERNON VILAS WASHBURN
WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
WOOD


LSZ121-110400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0120.110410T2020Z-110411T0400Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MPX...MKX...MQT...




WW0120 SAW
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW0
WW 120 TORNADO IA MI MN WI LS 102020Z - 110400Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5NNW IWD/IRONWOOD MI/ - 45S VOK/CAMP DOUGLAS WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /65NNW RHI - 28SW DLL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

LAT...LON 46588795 43258818 43259236 46589237

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.


Watch 120 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
WW0120 Warnings
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
WW0120 Probability
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High

Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Mod (60%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


High (80%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (>95%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
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was that long post needed a link with the pohoto on top would have been better
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1318. Patrap


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1317. SeALWx
Strong Cap still in place on the 18z sounding in MN.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Some People's Climate Beliefs Shift With Weather

ScienceDaily (Apr. 7, 2011) — Social scientists are struggling with a perplexing earth-science question: as the power of evidence showing humanmade global warming is rising, why do opinion polls suggest public belief in the findings is wavering? Part of the answer may be that some people are too easily swayed by the easiest, most irrational piece of evidence at hand: their own estimation of the day's temperature.

In three separate studies, researchers affiliated with Columbia University's Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) surveyed about 1,200 people in the United States and Australia, and found that those who thought the current day was warmer than usual were more likely to believe in and feel concern about global warming than those who thought the day was unusually cold. A new paper describing the studies appears in the current issue of the journal Psychological Science.

"Global warming is so complex, it appears some people are ready to be persuaded by whether their own day is warmer or cooler than usual, rather than think about whether the entire world is becoming warmer or cooler," said lead author Ye Li, a postdoctoral researcher at the Columbia Business School's Center for Decision Sciences, which is aligned with CRED. "It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced." The study says that "these results join a growing body of work show that irrelevant environmental information, such as the current weather, can affect judgments. … By way of analogy, when asked about the state of the national economy, someone might look at the amount of money in his or her wallet, a factor with only trivial relevance."

Link

I have friends who said 5 years ago gw was 100% correct, then we had a cold winter two years ago and now they say gw is bs.

this is one of those common sense studies where they already know the outcome, but they do the study anyway for evidence.
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Extremes Collide?

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KOG,

How much longer untill the start of hurricane season?
Hope we have invests every day, so there is no time to discuss.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1313. Xandra
Quoting eddy12:
neo my question is not whether the earth is warming or cooling but how much of an impact man has on it when in reality we have no idea how climate works

How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities Link

How Much Global Warming Are Humans Causing Link

Empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming Link
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Quoting eddy12:
neo my question is not whether the earth is warming or cooling but how much of an impact man has on it when in reality we have no idea how climate works

We know that CO2 and other GHG's trap sunlight, which leads to warming; and we know that our burning of fossil fuels adds millions of tons per day of CO2 and other GHGs to the atmosphere. The dots aren't difficult to connect after that.

Beginning roughly 200 years ago--coinciding with our profligate burning of fossil fuels--our planet began warming more quickly than it has at any time in at least the last several hundred thousand years. It's ridiculous to believe we've had nothing to do with that, as many do.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
1311. emcf30
When the cap breaks, i believe all of heck is going to break loose
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1310. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook....



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1309. emcf30
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Some People's Climate Beliefs Shift With Weather

ScienceDaily (Apr. 7, 2011) — Social scientists are struggling with a perplexing earth-science question: as the power of evidence showing humanmade global warming is rising, why do opinion polls suggest public belief in the findings is wavering? Part of the answer may be that some people are too easily swayed by the easiest, most irrational piece of evidence at hand: their own estimation of the day's temperature.

In three separate studies, researchers affiliated with Columbia University's Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) surveyed about 1,200 people in the United States and Australia, and found that those who thought the current day was warmer than usual were more likely to believe in and feel concern about global warming than those who thought the day was unusually cold. A new paper describing the studies appears in the current issue of the journal Psychological Science.

"Global warming is so complex, it appears some people are ready to be persuaded by whether their own day is warmer or cooler than usual, rather than think about whether the entire world is becoming warmer or cooler," said lead author Ye Li, a postdoctoral researcher at the Columbia Business School's Center for Decision Sciences, which is aligned with CRED. "It is striking that society has spent so much money, time and effort educating people about this issue, yet people are still so easily influenced." The study says that "these results join a growing body of work show that irrelevant environmental information, such as the current weather, can affect judgments. … By way of analogy, when asked about the state of the national economy, someone might look at the amount of money in his or her wallet, a factor with only trivial relevance."

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
1307. emcf30
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Quoting eddy12:
I find it very arrogant that any one can say global warming or climate change is totally man made or not caused by man at all. We humans have no idea how the earth and its systems even operate example why do some thunderstorms have tornados and others do not. What mechanisms cause the la nina-el nino, the pdo,the nao and so on. most people get on an airplane and fly having no idea the machanism that causes it to fly. I for one am not afraid to admit that mans lack of knowledge is staggering.

I myself find it arrogant that anyone can dismiss the overwhelming evidence in support of GW simply because they themselves don't understand climate as well as actual climate scientists do. That would be as foolish as you denying that airplanes can't fly simply because you don't understand how flight works.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
1304. emcf30
Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
Seeing nice towers to our southwest. People in extreme northeast Iowa, southeast MN, northwest IL, and Wisconsin need to be prepared for the worst.
37 minutes ago · 4577 · Like ·
Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
Currently heading east along IA/MN border. Storms will be flying today.
39 minutes ago · 2970 · Like ·
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Quoting eddy12:
I find it very arrogant that any one can say global warming or climate change is totally man made or not caused by man at all. We humans have no idea how the earth and its systems even operate example why do some thunderstorms have tornados and others do not. What mechanisms cause the la nina-el nino, the pdo,the nao and so on. most people get on an airplane and fly having no idea the machanism that causes it to fly. I for one am not afraid to admit that mans lack of knowledge is staggering.
i agree
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
1301. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
fire

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Hey, I'm to mid-year recording...whoopee.
Meanwhile, wind chart below:


http://www.wunderground.com/maps/us/WindSpeed.htm l
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Hawaii Low...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Quoting RMuller:


The jury is still out on whether it is warming or whether it is caused by man. My point is that the people in charge of educating us on AGW have been caught time and time again manipulating the numbers.
The question is not if we are warming. We already know what the earth is doing temperature wise, it's not a mistery at all.

And it is not a question if this warming is caused by humans. This is not a yes or no deal, it's a how much deal. The real question is how much of this warming is our responsibility.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ufo in the image can you see it look from n cen kanas ne ward see it riding the boundry line



Dang UFO's need to a' stay outta the US of A or we are gonna shoot em' down! Ole besy may be 80 years old, but she still places buckshot right on target!
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1295. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
here is a zoom in what is that abnormal clear spot in cloud


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1294. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Jedkins01:



Sorry, being a Christian doesn't have anything to do with Global Warming.

Jedkins, are you serious? There are millions of data points that say you are wrong. I won't bore the blog, but here: you can do your own research.

At any rate, I have absolutely no problem with a individual's personal faith or beliefs; I only take issue when that person's faith and beliefs drive policy that directly affects me. And as an American, I have both the privilege and the duty of saying something about that.

Quoting Jedkins01:

Get back to me sometime when you decided to stop being a know it all.

I can't help that; that's just how God made me. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
1276 TomTaylor "blah blah blan"

On the contrary, Xyrus2000 has been one of the islands of sanity on this issue. When others here have been screaming the equivalent of "OMG!!! It's Godzilla!!!", s/he's been injecting "Good grief, the real problems are bad enough..." followed up with examples and/or explanations.

And no, I don't work and haven't worked for the nuclear industry, or anybody else associated with fuel or power production. Nor do I have a pro-nuclear outlook for safe longterm* use of fission.
But we've gotta work with what we have... if for no other reason than to provide the power to clean up what we have until suitable replacements come online.

* Which I consider to be about as achievable as commercial fusion: it's been "30years in the future" for 60years , and I expect it to be "30years in the future" for at least another 30years. And yes, I do know about ITER as well as all of the other constructions either currently funded, currently under construction, or currently producing experimental results.
But then I don't consider use of fossil fuels to be possible for the longterm either. Either the World goes down the dumper for the next 90years -- enough to severely limit usage -- or we will have to be manufacturing carbon-based fuels by 2100 IF we still find them to be desireable for some purposes.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it sure does in Florida!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it sure does in Florida!


Definitely summer like the past few days although average temps are on the near horizon - at least here in NE FL.
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wow I definitely didn't mean to just quote myself? That was weird, I feel pretty dumb about now, haha
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Quoting aspectre:
1234 Neapolitan "...saving money is always more important than saving lives where corporations are concerned, so they took a calculated risk and built for the very lowest end of possibilities.
As it turns out, they calculated wrong, and now thousands over several generations will likely pay the eventual price.
(Though that's not all bad; I imagine TEPCO's executives will get huge cash bonuses next year since millions haven't died. Yet.)"

Hyperbolic exaggeration doesn't help in arguing ones case -- even Chernobyl has caused only thousands of deaths -- because it then becomes a weakness that adversaries can exploit to their advantage.
Especially when the reality is bad enough.


Two things. One, it's not "only" thousands if you or your children are one of those thousands. Two: some valid estimates are of deaths/non-births in the very high six figures (900,000+). Call it "hyperbolic exaggeration" if you wish, but in my world, those are some horrific numbers on their own. No exaggeration is required.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it sure does in Florida!


and the sun here is already twice as intense as it was on my visit to Michigan in July.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
spring rushes towards summer


Yeah it sure does in Florida!
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1286. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Oh how I am so happy to see the end of cold air masses and dry air being replaced by consistent warm, humid, Florida weather.

This is the life :)

its 89 at my house with a dewpoint of 67, great April weather in Central Florida!
spring rushes towards summer
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1285. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro...I am having a strange day..It feels like 1975 to me for some reason...Wuz it something I read on the blog....I wunder...It might get stormy here in middle TN again tomorrow. There is a strong surface low forecast to develop along the front..This feature was not showing up on yesterdays model runs....Link


Sort of a nice break in the day when you can't remember what year it is, isn't it? LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Oh how I am so happy to see the end of cold air masses and dry air being replaced by consistent warm, humid, Florida weather.

This is the life :)

its 89 at my house with a dewpoint of 67, great April weather in Central Florida!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.