Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes but we were specifically discussing Texas. I think it goes without saying that all coastal areas should have the most stringent building codes in place. Why some don't is likely due to the fact that it will increase the cost of building.

Wouldn't standardized building codes make it easier for builders to go by. Also, why is it only 30miles? shouldn't it be much further inland than that?
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Get that earthquake alert app on your smartphone folks
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There were 2 7.4 offshore, once is deeper than the other
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13 cat5hurricane "I believe people should be able to live where they choose to, regardless of the level of risk they face from natural disasters with great frequency. While I myself would probably not do so, I don't believe that government should be allowed to dictate where one should live if he or she so desires."

There would have been only a comparative handful of homes on river/beachfront property without heavy government intervention.
Prior to the early 1960s, folks couldn't get business loans to build nor mortgages to buy homes on river/beachfront property. Ya had to use your own*money cuz insurance companies would not accept the risk of insuring those properties because reinsurance companies would not accept the risk.
Then Congress stepped in with FEMA and its flood insurance programs though which the US taxpayer was made into the insurer-of-last-resort. ie Insurance companies could pass the majority of the risk onto the federal government while making money selling the policies.
Banks could get their loans&mortgages insured. And the coastal building boom began.

* Unless you were sufficiently independently wealthy that banks would know that you could easily self-insure the loan/mortgage with your publicly-known-to-be fully owned assets; that you were taking out the loan/mortgage for convenience and the income tax writeoff, and not because you needed the loan/mortgage.
Prior to the federal flood insurance program, beachfront living was for "the fabulously wealthy, movie stars and old money" -- hence the cachet -- the hoi polloi could never afford to move in to "roughen the neighborhood".
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USGS earthquake page for the new 7.4
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Magnitude 7.4
Date-Time

Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 14:32:41 UTC
Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 11:32:41 PM at epicenter

Location 38.253°N, 141.640°E
Depth 25.6 km (15.9 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

66 km (41 miles) E (90°) from Sendai, Honshu, Japan
118 km (73 miles) ENE (60°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
147 km (91 miles) NNE (26°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
333 km (207 miles) NNE (30°) from TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.1 km (8.1 miles); depth +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles)
Parameters NST=426, Nph=427, Dmin=358.4 km, Rmss=0.75 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B
Source

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc0002ksa


Tsunami Warning/Advisory

Issued at 23:34 JST 07 Apr 2011

******************Headline******************
Tsunami Warnings (Tsunami) have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan:
MIYAGI PREF.
Evacuate immediately to safe place away from the shore in the above coastal regions.
Tsunami advisories are currently in effect in other coastal regions of Japan.
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Magnitude 7.4
Date-Time

Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 14:32:41 UTC
Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 11:32:41 PM at epicenter

Location 38.253°N, 141.640°E
Depth 25.6 km (15.9 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

66 km (41 miles) E (90°) from Sendai, Honshu, Japan
118 km (73 miles) ENE (60°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
147 km (91 miles) NNE (26°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
333 km (207 miles) NNE (30°) from TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.1 km (8.1 miles); depth +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles)
Parameters NST=426, Nph=427, Dmin=358.4 km, Rmss=0.75 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B
Source

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc0002ksa
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13527
Quoting Tazmanian:



nop that would not be a good be come we could see under grund flooding from storms or high sea


Taz, they do take that into account when running service underground.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
You dont fall under a first tier county Jeff, that's why
True. But I still think second tier counties (which Harris County is) should have more stringent codes, especially in light of Ike.
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***********About Tsunami Forecast************

Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters. Caution advised.

Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters. Attention advised.

******* Earthquake Information ********
Occurred at 23:32 JST 07 Apr 2011
Region name MIYAGI-KEN OKI
Latitude 38.2N
Longitude 142.0E
Depth about 40 km
Magnitude 7.4


Link
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Drudge just posted 7.4 in Japan, tsunami alert, anyone have any more info on this?
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On another note (I posted this on Beell's blog, too)...

Inversion layers creating strong caps suck.

NOAA RUC soundings for Houston IAH, Houston HOU, College Station (CLL), and Conroe (CXO)

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Shouldn't all coastal area's of CONUS have the same building codes???


Yes but we were specifically discussing Texas. I think it goes without saying that all coastal areas should have the most stringent building codes in place. Why some don't is likely due to the fact that it will increase the cost of building.
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You dont fall under a first tier county Jeff, that's why
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Coastal counties in Texas is regulated by law to have hurricane straps, the codes are strict for coastal communities

Many of them don't. And while coastal sections of counties should have straps, once you get more than about 30 miles inland, they don't.
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Link
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pretty sure the nws meant question,,not quebecstion,lol....am i seeing a possible sts in the eastern gulf 7days ???
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Coastal counties in Texas is regulated by law to have hurricane straps, the codes are strict for coastal communities
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Shouldn't all coastal area's of CONUS have the same building codes???

One would think, but it is a state-level issue.

If you compare building codes across the gulf coast and southeast (from NC down), you will find that TX has some of the most lenient codes out there.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Interesting. After Andrew, roof strapping (aka hurricane strapping) became a permanent staple in the Florida Building Codes. Over the years, with each building code revision, the number and size of the straps have increase greatly. Now, you can't even re-roof an older home without meeting current strapping requirements. As for electrical, many of the other Florida homes have above ground power lines running thru the air but most newer homes and businesses have gone to underground service. We had the choice when building our house in 2008 of either above or below ground because in rural areas there are no restrictions. We chose to spend the extra $700 to run the service underground so as to avoid the common problem during storms of the electrical service being ripped off the side of the house (thus causing alot of damage internally as well). In deed restricted and newer communities you can only choose underground but the service is already there as part of the initial subdivision development plan.

I don't understand why Texas wouldn't at least implement coastal building codes with similar requirements in light of Ike's extensive destruction.

In terms of regulations, Texas is one of the most backwards states in the country.

My wife and I are very lucky with our house, as we had it built, and the builder (D.R. Horton) actually went above and beyond code in many parts. For example - instead of 2x4s in load bearing areas, they use 2x6, if not 2x8. They added extra bracing in the roof at no charge (but at my insistence). We are an extra foot above street level, beyond what code required (it put the house itself above the 500 yr flood plain, but most of the property is within the 500yr flood plain). Also, they used shatter-resistant double-paned windows, both for insulation, and for protection against flying debris. They aren't "storm windows" that can take a 2x4 end-on at 100mph, but they can take a solid hit without shattering - and if they shatter, its not knife-like shards. They also used termite protection on the frame itself, and used higher strength concrete than the house (and building codes) require.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

By that line of reasoning, then, people should be allowed to build on sand dunes, in flood plains, astride known surface faults, on the upper slopes of active volcanoes, and so on. No, a government of, for, and by the people serves the greater good, and that greater good is undermined by many things--including allowing people to build whatever they want wherever they want. Building codes exist for a reason, and it has nothing to do with establishing what some call a "nanny state"; it's about protecting the needs of the many. Yes, that may inconvenience stupid people from time to time--but that's part of the cost of living in a civilized country.

(If you have any doubt, consider this: last year, a quarter of a million people died in Haiti as a result of an earthquake. But last month in Japan, a far stronger earthquake and resultant tsunami killed (so far) about 5% of that number. A clearer picture of the benefits of "onerous" government rules and regulations you'll seldom see.)


Nice one Nea. A similar analogy is complaining about those pesky stop signs. "The elites in Washington have no right to tell ME when to stop"
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Interesting. After Andrew, roof strapping (aka hurricane strapping) became a permanent staple in the Florida Building Codes. Over the years, with each building code revision, the number and size of the straps have increase greatly. Now, you can't even re-roof an older home without meeting current strapping requirements. As for electrical, many of the other Florida homes have above ground power lines running thru the air but most newer homes and businesses have gone to underground service. We had the choice when building our house in 2008 of either above or below ground because in rural areas there are no restrictions. We chose to spend the extra $700 to run the service underground so as to avoid the common problem during storms of the electrical service being ripped off the side of the house (thus causing alot of damage internally as well). In deed restricted and newer communities you can only choose underground but the service is already there as part of the initial subdivision development plan.

I don't understand why Texas wouldn't at least implement coastal building codes with similar requirements in light of Ike's extensive destruction.

Shouldn't all coastal area's of CONUS have the same building codes???
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I still bet a active season,conditions are somewhat like in 2005,but more like in 2008.I am predicting the season numbers:
14-20 NS
7-12 H
3-6 MH
1-3 cat5s
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WeatherUnderground, it means have utilities underground because of WEATHER
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Quoting jeffs713:

I wish Ike had more of a lasting impact in the form of building codes and power line maintenance. Sadly, building codes haven't changed, and power line maintenance is still abysmal.

Some examples:
When I built my house, I had the builder install steel brackets connecting the frame and the roof, to help keep the roof solid - I had to press pretty hard to get that (its beyond code here in TX).

In an area with new commercial construction, overhead power lines cross a parking lot to attach to a restaurant. Directly underneath one of the distribution lines, the landscapers planted a line of Live Oak and Lobolly Pine trees... Yeah, I can't possibly see what will happen in a few years, when those trees start interfering with the power lines.


Interesting. After Andrew, roof strapping (aka hurricane strapping) became a permanent staple in the Florida Building Codes. Over the years, with each building code revision, the number and size of the straps have increase greatly. Now, you can't even re-roof an older home without meeting current strapping requirements. As for electrical, many of the older Florida homes have above ground power lines running thru the air but most newer homes and businesses have gone to underground service. We had the choice when building our house in 2008 of either above or below ground because in rural areas there are no restrictions. We chose to spend the extra $700 to run the service underground so as to avoid the common problem during storms of the electrical service being ripped off the side of the house (thus causing alot of damage internally as well). In deed restricted and newer communities you can only choose underground but the service is already there as part of the initial subdivision development plan.

I don't understand why Texas wouldn't at least implement coastal building codes with similar requirements in light of Ike's extensive destruction.
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I'm seeing on some FM roads that are being widened they're putting in new power poles and moving them back to the edge of the ROW (right of way) and I'm like what?! just put underground people
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop that would not be a good be come we could see under grund flooding from storms or high sea

Power lines, when placed underground, are located within waterproof pipes, to prevent flooding issues. I have underground lines on the first 2 levels out from my house (the drop line, and its street-level distribution line are underground, and I *think* the subdivision-level distribution line is also underground). The drop line to my house is 36" underground, which is right around the *average* water table. The power line itself is placed within a 2" waterproof pipeline (forgot the name of the material) that both prevents accidental cuts, and also prevents water intrusion. The biggest water-related issue with underground lines is that of washouts, but if you get a washout 3 feet down anywhere away from the exact coast... you have bigger issues.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


All powerlines along highways and FM roads need to be underground, in fact along the gulf coast they all need to be underground but cost is the issue.

I am in full agreement.

IMO, if cost is such an issue, when new lines are put in, put them underground. As lines are replaced or repaired due to age, they should be placed underground. There are some areas of town (like Westheimer) where the aboveground lines are disgusting to see, but placing them underground is nigh impossible due to the entire roadside being solid concrete/asphalt. (of course, in the case of Westheimer, you would need to do a lot more than bury power lines to improve the look of the road)
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Quoting RitaEvac:


All powerlines along highways and FM roads need to be underground, in fact along the gulf coast they all need to be underground but cost is the issue.



nop that would not be a good be come we could see under grund flooding from storms or high sea
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Quoting jeffs713:

I wish Ike had more of a lasting impact in the form of building codes and power line maintenance. Sadly, building codes haven't changed, and power line maintenance is still abysmal.

Some examples:
When I built my house, I had the builder install steel brackets connecting the frame and the roof, to help keep the roof solid - I had to press pretty hard to get that (its beyond code here in TX).

In an area with new commercial construction, overhead power lines cross a parking lot to attach to a restaurant. Directly underneath one of the distribution lines, the landscapers planted a line of Live Oak and Lobolly Pine trees... Yeah, I can't possibly see what will happen in a few years, when those trees start interfering with the power lines.


All powerlines along highways and FM roads need to be underground, in fact along the gulf coast they all need to be underground but cost is the issue.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


Thanks. I'm glad you like it ... actually a bit lost for words, never been compared to Clapton before but I'll take it.
You are very welcome....And I have been diggin Claptons muzik a long time...:)
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes sir. My wife used to go fishing alot down there on Bolivar and Galveston and she hadn't lived there since the early 90's. When Ike hit and she was all those homes there she couldn't believe her eyes. It is beautiful beach but you are really asking for it putting homes there. It is also reminiscent of this area. Before Andrew hit there hadn't been a major hurricane in quite some time and the building codes were pretty much a joke. Which is partially why Andrew was so destructive. That and Cat 5 winds. The silver lining from Andrew was the introduction of VERY stringent building codes.

I wish Ike had more of a lasting impact in the form of building codes and power line maintenance. Sadly, building codes haven't changed, and power line maintenance is still abysmal.

Some examples:
When I built my house, I had the builder install steel brackets connecting the frame and the roof, to help keep the roof solid - I had to press pretty hard to get that (its beyond code here in TX).

In an area with new commercial construction, overhead power lines cross a parking lot to attach to a restaurant. Directly underneath one of the distribution lines, the landscapers planted a line of Live Oak and Lobolly Pine trees... Yeah, I can't possibly see what will happen in a few years, when those trees start interfering with the power lines.

In a developing area, a set of power lines is set up, with transformers, along the side of the road. Right next to the power lines (maybe 2 feet away, if that), is a stand of Lobolly Pine trees that are easily 50 feet tall. In a moderate thunderstorm a few months back (it wasn't even close severe, since it went right over my house), one of those trees (that was hit by bark beetles) broke halfway up the trunk, and the branches/top half of the trunk landed on the power line. If there was proper distance from the power lines, the tree branches would have not hit the lines, causing the short. But Centerpoint Energy (who was blasted for not maintaining the lines prior to Ike), didn't even try. As a note, the power lines were installed after Ike.
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6.5 magnitude Earthquake reported in Chiapas Mexico-
Magnitude-6.5 earthquake shakes southern Mexico
The Associated Press - ‎20 minutes ago‎
MEXICO CITY (AP) — A magnitude-6.5 earthquake shook a wide swath of southern and central Mexico on Thursday, prompting people to flee into the streets in the country's capital. The epicenter was located near the town of Las Chiapas and about 370 miles southeast of Mexico City.

The temblor was felt strongly in Chiapas, a state bordering Guatemala.

There were no initial reports of damage or injuries.

Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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Quoting hydrus:
I do not think the people living in North and South Carolina like the prediction that this year will be similar to 1996 and 1955...By the way...your handle is the coolest..NO handle ever has been, or ever will be as cool as Green Tortuloni...Green Tortuloni = God..


Thanks. I'm glad you like it ... actually a bit lost for words, never been compared to Clapton before but I'll take it.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
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Quoting RitaEvac:


That's what happens when you go 25 yrs without a major hurricane impact


Yes sir. My wife used to go fishing alot down there on Bolivar and Galveston and she hadn't lived there since the early 90's. When Ike hit and she saw all those homes there she couldn't believe her eyes. It is beautiful beach but you are really asking for it putting homes there. It is also reminiscent of this area. Before Andrew hit there hadn't been a major hurricane in quite some time and the building codes were pretty much a joke. Which is partially why Andrew was so destructive. That and Cat 5 winds. Combine those factors with the influx of transplants from other areas of the country and world who never experienced a hurricane and didn't prepare and you have quite a catastrophe.

The silver lining from Andrew was the introduction of VERY stringent building codes.
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Florida's drought has been chissled away

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Quoting cat5hurricane:

I'm not quite sure I agree with that line of reasoning. I believe people should be able to live where they choose to, regardless of the level of risk they face from natural disasters with great frequency. While I myself would probably not do so, I don't believe that government should be allowed to dictate where one should live if he or she so desires. When one settles there, they know the risks. Furthermore, where would you ever draw the line. If you go by that logic, why not declare the entire Florida coastline on barrier inlands unhabitable for residential use and allocate that land into public domain? Any land falling storm--whether it's a shallow continental shelf near Tampa Bay or near Miami which is geologically less prone to storm surge impacts due to a very deep shelf--would be inundated with water if a large intense hurricane made landfall near there. People takes risks everyday with home ownership. While some risks are far greater, it is up to the individual to make those decisions for themselves.


That all would be great if people took personal responsiblity for their decisions but we know they do not. Residents live in very low lying areas without any insurance on their homes and then when "the big one comes" they expect the government (us) to bail them out and "give" them everything. If it was just a matter of if you decide to live there you take full responsibility I would say yes. I am not big on big government either but in this case and some other cases that need to be taken care of, I suggest it is the best alternative.
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I have the earthquake alert app on my droid, it's cool to check out
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


Look at this forcast for the next seven in Fort Meyers, FL. Nothing but low 90's for the next week. The Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are really going to soar through this weekend.! That huge eddie will likely be 90+ for a good part of the season.

Hi 89 °F Today
Hi 91 °F Friday
Hi 92 °F Saturday
Hi 92 °F Sunday
Hi 91 °F Sunday

Link



Don't remind me...A/C weather is here again...as are higher electric bills. UGH!
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This one was, luckily, fairly deep.

Magnitude 6.5
Date-Time

Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 13:11:24 UTC
Thursday, April 07, 2011 at 08:11:24 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 17.431°N, 93.978°W
Depth 167.4 km (104.0 miles)
Region VERACRUZ, MEXICO
Distances 91 km (56 miles) SSE of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, Mexico
118 km (73 miles) NW of Tuxtla Gutierrez, Chiapas, Mexico
127 km (78 miles) WSW of Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico
590 km (366 miles) ESE of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 16 km (9.9 miles); depth +/- 9.5 km (5.9 miles)
Parameters NST=389, Nph=390, Dmin=233.8 km, Rmss=1.16 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
Source

USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc0002kru
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13527
Quoting Neapolitan:

By that line of reasoning, then, people should be allowed to build on sand dunes, in flood plains, astride known surface faults, on the upper slopes of active volcanoes, and so on. No, a government of, for, and by the people serves the greater good, and that greater good is undermined by many things--including allowing people to build whatever they want wherever they want. Building codes exist for a reason, and it has nothing to do with establishing what some call a "nanny state"; it's about protecting the needs of the many. Yes, that may inconvenience stupid people from time to time--but that's part of the cost of living in a civilized country.

(If you have any doubt, consider this: last year, a quarter of a million people died in Haiti as a result of an earthquake. But last month in Japan, a far stronger earthquake and resultant tsunami killed (so far) about 5% of that number. A clearer picture of the benefits of "onerous" government rules and regulations you'll seldom see.)


The other thing to note is that states are often on the hook for the stupidity of those who want to build in extremely disaster prone locations. Maybe we could sell some lots around the mouth of Mount St. Helens too. It'd be a heckuva view for the next eruption.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


Here in Italy, the government controls building new properties to the point that a friend of mine could not change the width of his driveway - this is in the middle of nowhere, Tuscany. But it works out because the landscape is full of villas and farmhouses instead of everyone's iconoclastic architectural nighmare.

In general, I am conservative-government-off-my-back, but given the fact that we all have to get along, I recognize that (done right) community laws return far more freedom than they take away. I just don't know where to draw the line abstractly.
I do not think the people living in North and South Carolina like the prediction that this year will be similar to 1996 and 1955...By the way...your handle is the coolest..NO handle ever has been, or ever will be as cool as Green Tortuloni...Green Tortuloni = God..
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


That's great news! They had no business building homes there.


That's what happens when you go 25 yrs without a major hurricane impact
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I expect the TX/MX border to go in the exceptional category as well pretty soon, you know it never rains out there
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Thanks DRS M&C. It will be interesting to see if CSU's new formula will work or not. I sometimes wonder what good it would be to know months in advance that a hurricane was going to hit you. If that would actually save lives I'm all for it. Just have my doubts about that. People seem to have short memories as it is about how bad these things can be, sad to say. Alas Galveston County is taking the only measure there is to ensure your home and life won't be wiped out by the storm's surge at least. Food for thought I guess.

$100 million Ike buyouts nearing end on Bolivar
April 06, 2011 8:30 AM

Scott Lawrence

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) - More than two years ago, the beach front along Avenue J in Crystal Beach featured a row of houses with a Gulf view and 200 feet of beach.

That was before Hurricane Ike.

Now, lots are vacant, and the beach is about 30 yards from what passes for a dune line. The properties that once lined the road now are owned by the county and will be vacant forever.

Galveston County is in the final stages of one of the largest property buyout programs in United States history...
Link


That's great news! They had no business building homes there.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
In galveston county were actually doing pretty good, only in the tan moderate shade
Tomball is right on the edge of D3 and D2. Go another 40 miles north, and you're in D4. Yippy skippy. Water restrictions, here we come!

(On a side note, one of my neighbors left their manual sprinkler on all night)
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32.

Its going to take more than a few days of warm weather to warm up the GOM. The Loop Current (the "huge eddy" you mentioned) normally gets up into the high 80s during the summer, due to its feed from the Caribbean.
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In galveston county were actually doing pretty good, only in the tan moderate shade
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Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
Remember the Freeport marina debacle..


Not as familiar with that one DARPAsp. I did find this snippet:

The city of Freeport is attempting to force out a generations-old family shrimp and marine supply business to make way for a luxury marina development that was to be owned and operated by Royall’s private company. The shrimp and marine supply businesses are owned by the Gore family, which does not want to move and does not want to sell its business to the city, or Royall, at any price. The project has since been repeatedly delayed. In the meantime, the Gore family continues to operate its businesses under threat of condemnation

Was that the story?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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