Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 334 - 284

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting Cotillion:
Something vaguely interesting and of use to any meteorologically themed quiz, I suppose:

'The Earth sees about 760 thunderstorms every hour, scientists have calculated.

The figure, unveiled at the European Geosciences Union meeting in Vienna, is substantially lower than numbers that have been used for nearly a century.

The new research uses a global network of monitoring stations that detect the electromagnetic pulses produced by major bolts of lightning.

It confirms that thunderstorms are mainly a tropical phenomenon - and the Congo basin is the global hotspot.'

link

From the article:

"Thunderstorms cluster in the centre of continents in the tropics, with the Congo basin standing out.

"That's perhaps because it's drier there than in the Amazon, for example - thunderstorms seem to form more easily in drier conditions," Dr Price told BBC News."


It's interesting that the Congo basin sees more lightning than the Amazon, because as the article hints at, the Amazon receives much more rain.

I'm guessing the reason for greater lightning in the Congo is because the drier air in the Congo allows for greater heating allowing for greater lift & instability. Meanwhile, the Amazon is more uniformly moist, meaning more cloud cover and less opportunity for significant heating, like the Congo sees.

thats my guess


Here's a map of the global lightning strike density. view in another tab to enlarge

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
West coast of CONUS sure is dead calm, wonder if that's about to change
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
there is in all likly hood of something larger to come than what has been seen today and it may not be in japan

i would have to agree with you keeper
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big smoke plume from fire in Mexico SW of Laughlin Air Force Base in TX. Going directly over air force base
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
The land of Earth is unsplitting upon us, and will continue to spiral out of control as the Good Lord returns


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yet another fairly large quake today, this one off the coast of Honduras several hundred miles east of this morning's Mexican 6.5:


== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: NORTH OF HONDURAS
Geographic coordinates: 17.218N, 85.090W
Magnitude: 5.8 Mw
Depth: 19 km
Universal Time (UTC): 7 Apr 2011 20:41:54
Time near the Epicenter: 7 Apr 2011 14:41:54
Local standard time in your area: 7 Apr 2011 15:41:54

Location with respect to nearby cities:
125 km (78 miles) W (260 degrees) of Swan Island
172 km (107 miles) NNE (32 degrees) of Trujillo, Colón, Honduras
181 km (113 miles) ENE (57 degrees) of Roatán, Islas de la Bahía, Honduras
242 km (150 miles) NE (48 degrees) of La Ceiba, Atlántida, Honduras
394 km (245 miles) E (89 degrees) of BELMOPAN, Belize
there is in all likly hood of something larger to come than what has been seen today and it may not be in japan
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
324. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TomTaylor:
what are the red and black lines? I'm guessing there some other measure of the enso


El~ El Nino index & LI is the La Nina index~ I'm not sure which is which but they run really similar. I think EL is the usual manner ENSO is discussed with he 3 month average of region 3,4.


Quoting jitterboy:

Could that dive be a sensing issue- some sort of artifact- or do they remove those. Is that data looked at at all or is it raw?


In that chart a 60 day average of ESPI is used. The -1.90 current is a 30 day average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jitterboy:

Could that dive be a sensing issue- some sort of artifact- or do they remove those. Is that data looked at at all or is it raw?


answered my own question- the data are subjected to a running two month mean to reduce variability.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yet another fairly large quake today, this one off the coast of Honduras several hundred miles east of this morning's Mexican 6.5:


== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: NORTH OF HONDURAS
Geographic coordinates: 17.218N, 85.090W
Magnitude: 5.8 Mw
Depth: 19 km
Universal Time (UTC): 7 Apr 2011 20:41:54
Time near the Epicenter: 7 Apr 2011 14:41:54
Local standard time in your area: 7 Apr 2011 15:41:54

Location with respect to nearby cities:
125 km (78 miles) W (260 degrees) of Swan Island
172 km (107 miles) NNE (32 degrees) of Trujillo, Colón, Honduras
181 km (113 miles) ENE (57 degrees) of Roatán, Islas de la Bahía, Honduras
242 km (150 miles) NE (48 degrees) of La Ceiba, Atlántida, Honduras
394 km (245 miles) E (89 degrees) of BELMOPAN, Belize
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Something vaguely interesting and of use to any meteorologically themed quiz, I suppose:

'The Earth sees about 760 thunderstorms every hour, scientists have calculated.

The figure, unveiled at the European Geosciences Union meeting in Vienna, is substantially lower than numbers that have been used for nearly a century.

The new research uses a global network of monitoring stations that detect the electromagnetic pulses produced by major bolts of lightning.

It confirms that thunderstorms are mainly a tropical phenomenon - and the Congo basin is the global hotspot.'

link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


It's figuring how strong ENSO is using precipitation anomaly & differences from the equator region over the Pacific & North of Australia. Here's more.

I wish this would update. It's the history of it plotted out. ESPI is blue. See how it usually dives right before ENSO goes up? This is another sign we will get hotter than neutral conditions. -1.9 is more on the extreme end. it was just -1.06 maybe 10 days ago..last time I looked over ENSO.

Could that dive be a sensing issue- some sort of artifact- or do they remove those. Is that data looked at at all or is it raw?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


It's figuring how strong ENSO is using precipitation anomaly & differences from the equator region over the Pacific & North of Australia. Here's more.

I wish this would update. It's the history of it plotted out. ESPI is blue. See how it usually dives right before ENSO goes up? This is another sign we will get hotter than neutral conditions. -1.9 is more on the extreme end. it was just -1.06 maybe 10 days ago..last time I looked over ENSO.
what are the red and black lines? I'm guessing there some other measure of the enso
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
316. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting jitterboy:

What is ESPI ? Thanks


It's figuring how strong ENSO is using precipitation anomaly & differences from the equator region over the Pacific & North of Australia. Here's more.

I wish this would update. It's the history of it plotted out. ESPI is blue. See how it usually dives right before ENSO goes up? This is another sign we will get hotter than neutral conditions. -1.9 is more on the extreme end. it was just -1.06 maybe 10 days ago..last time I looked over ENSO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jitterboy:

What is ESPI ? Thanks


European Space Policy Institute!

...

It's ENSO Precipitation Index. Link

'82, '92, and '97 all being strong El Nino episodes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane season rapidly approaching folks, buckle up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
313. Skyepony (Mod)
ESPI is rarely that low. This gives up analog years of '82(-2.1), '92(-1.9) & '97(-2.2).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
WOW~ ESPI is -1.90. It has fallen like a rock. It goes opposite of ENSO, so a substantial rise in ENSO would be expected.

What is ESPI ? Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
WOW~ ESPI is -1.90. It has fallen like a rock. It goes opposite of ENSO, so a substantial rise in ENSO I would like this hurricane season to almost be like 2010.As in having strong staorms saty out to sea,and watch them grow/die off somewhere up in Nova Scotia.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
310. IKE

Quoting caneswatch:
Oh c'mon you guys, can't you be mature? It's not JFV, it's a girl who's just interested in weather. I was actually treated nice when I first got on here, now why don't you guys do the same?
She's a lot prettier. Maybe I'm wrong.

It's 80.8 outside my window. High in the low 80's today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
309. Skyepony (Mod)
WOW~ ESPI is -1.90. It has fallen like a rock. It goes opposite of ENSO, so a substantial rise in ENSO would be expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

Hmmm....nah couldn't be JFV? Could it?

Nah.......................
Oh god no.Don't start this ish again.If theirs anyone that's the star in here it's JFV or "him" as I call it.Becuase people give him attention.And always bring up his name.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nice clouds and convection in the Central Atlantic ITCZ, far south but will be moving northward over time




made it north of the equator
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
306. Skyepony (Mod)
I'm still leaning more toward the NASA GMAO ENSO model (purple square in the entry enso graph..wandering up toward Moderate El Nino territory).. Look at the subsurface temps.. Impressive Kelvin wave too.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In fact the whole damn thing covers the entire Atlantic out there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

I posted a full list on my blog, for use as a reference during the season...


I saw that the other day. Very amusing, +100.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice clouds and convection in the Central Atlantic ITCZ, far south but will be moving northward over time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


Haha, I know what you mean. But here, caster comes from forecaster.

Doom-caster is someone that says a huge hurricane is going to hit somewhere, fish-caster is someone that says a storm is going out to sea, Florida-caster is someone that says a storm is going to Florida, etc. etc. Now you know the 411 on this.

I posted a full list on my blog, for use as a reference during the season...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On-line Magnitude Difference calculator

Link

A magnitude earthquake 9.1 is 100 times bigger than a 7.1 magnitude earthquake on a seismogram, but is 1000 times stronger (energy release).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh c'mon you guys, can't you be mature? It's not JFV, it's a girl who's just interested in weather. I was actually treated nice when I first got on here, now why don't you guys do the same?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
299. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
298. IKE

Quoting TomTaylor:
guess I better get on that. I like your pic btw

Listening to "That's The Way" at the moment
That's a great song.


................................................. .....................................


Quoting hurricanejunky:
Good Lord Ike, what year is the picture? They are SO young there...
Forty + years ago?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It has! Getting ready for another active season coming up. Hope everything's been going well with you.


Good to see everything's good with you Miami. Hope all remains well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLweathergirliee:



Ohhh ok, I see, what is still weird is all the talk about this StormW guy, is he like the star of the show and how can a guy be pimp online? That is lameee and doesn't make sense! Heck pimps of any kind are just yucky and stupid anyway lol :) they think they can just own girls, yeah right! Not all girls like pimps...


Let's just say he was a person on here LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
295. Skyepony (Mod)
CPC Monthly ENSO discussion is out today..


Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2011.
La Niña
weakened for the third consecutive month, as reflected by increasing
surface and subsurface ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific
Ocean. All four Niño indices ranged between –0.3oC and –0.8oC at the end of March 2011 (Fig. 1). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 2)
became weakly positive in response to the continued eastward
progression of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave, which has begun to shoal in
the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3). However, the basin wide extent of negative SST anomalies remained considerable throughout the month (Fig. 4).
Also, La Niña impacts on the atmospheric circulation remained strong
over the tropical and subtropical Pacific. Convection remained enhanced
over much of Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central
equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5).
Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds have
persisted in this region. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric
anomalies reflect a weakening La Niña, but with ongoing global impacts.
Nearly all of
the ENSO models predict La Niña to continue weakening in the coming
months, and the majority of models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral by
May-June-July 2011 (three month average in the Niño-3.4 index between
–0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6).
While there is confidence in ENSO-neutral conditions by June 2011, the
forecasts for the late summer and beyond remain highly uncertain. At
this time, all of the multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines)
suggest ENSO-neutral conditions will persist from June through the rest
of the year. However, the spread of individual model forecasts and
overall model skill at these lead times leaves the door open for either
El Niño or La Niña conditions by the end of 2011.
La Niña will
continue to have global impacts even as the episode weakens through the
Northern Hemisphere spring. Expected La Niña impacts during April-June
2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical
Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Potential
impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance for
below-average precipitation across much of the South, while
above-average precipitation is favored for the northern Plains. An
increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted across the
northern tier of the country (excluding New England). A higher
possibility of above-average temperatures is favored for much of the
southern half of the contiguous U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on March 17th, 2011).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Lord Ike, what year is the picture? They are SO young there...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WTI Crude Oil
$110.25
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

1
guess I better get on that. I like your pic btw

Listening to "That's The Way" at the moment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh come on whats wrong with World Warcraft?? Or Final Fantasy, or Quake, or Odyssey...lol I better stop this isn't even the start of my list.

Looks like we will be under the gun the Sunday. I hope this system can speed up by about 6-12 hrs, I would love to be chasing this weekend, given the possible conditions setting up.

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Good to see you on, Miami09. Hope life has been good to ya over the off-season!
It has! Getting ready for another active season coming up. Hope everything's been going well with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL!


Good to see you on, Miami09. Hope life has been good to ya over the off-season!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
288. IKE

Quoting TomTaylor:
sure learned how to upload a profile pic fast

i ain't even there yet
+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When you wanna start talking weather like I came here for, let me know, until then, keep the sillyness to yourselves

Whoa!!

(snaps to attention)

Yes ma'am!!

(by the way, what kinda shoes are you wearing?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Who knows, but I bet she goes to FIU.
LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:


naahh...but it shure learned how to use the quote button real quick.

Looks like Rebecca Black to me.

Hey gurlfriend...what seat you gonna take?
sure learned how to upload a profile pic fast

i ain't even there yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Btw, hey Ike! Ready for another year of this drama? I stepped away for the last 5 months and I'm re-energized. Just so you can get warmed up, you're such a downcaster. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 334 - 284

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.