Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

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Quoting Ossqss:


I bet Patrap needs a Fresca (ª¿ª) ~:^) - L8R >>>>>



I can do that, too.....multi-tasker plus
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Ok, I'm running virus check, watching radar, sattelite, keeping tabs on quakes......is there anything else I should be doing......lol....dont wanta miss a thing


I bet Patrap needs a Fresca (ª¿ª) ~:^) - L8R >>>>>

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, I'm running virus check, watching radar, sattelite, keeping tabs on quakes......is there anything else I should be doing......lol....dont wanta miss a thing
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting IFuSAYso:
Just fyi, b4 i move on, I have been hit by a lev 5 google chrome key logger reported by webroot, check ur virus.


Here is some info for you that may help

http://www.google.com/support/forum/p/Chrome/thre ad?tid=59aaa007918a4224&hl=en

Just so ya know :)

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/04/05/google- wades-global-warming-debate/

Some may find this helpful also

http://www.pcworld.com/article/223261/top_5_onlin e_2011_tax_scams.html
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Quoting aquak9:
Beer and Geritol?

Those aren't his meds!

shame on you, Tkeith!

and I hate to ask, but is the gov't shutting down tonite?


Thanks, aqua. Truthfully, I do not imbibe. Never did. I know that is strange coming from a military guy, but never could tolerate it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Just fyi, b4 i move on, I have been hit by a lev 5 google chrome key logger reported by webroot, check ur virus.
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821 i dont know what she was saying,for all i know it could be a cat 5 in arizona, but i would trade here talking about a cloudy day in a indoor stadium over cantorie looking at a hurricane any day
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Quoting Grothar:



I didn't know they were even open! Wonder if they are going to have a "Going out of Business Sale"?
All I know is that geritol must be some powerful shtuff......:)
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Quoting aquak9:
Beer and Geritol?

Those aren't his meds!

shame on you, Tkeith!

and I hate to ask, but is the gov't shutting down tonite?



I didn't know they were even open! Wonder if they are going to have a "Going out of Business Sale"?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
While the cats away, the mice will play!
First Arkansas and now Baja Califonia is getting rattled with these pesty quakes. 4 of them in a shake of a rats tail.
Night , night all. 2 am. here.
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Beer and Geritol?

Those aren't his meds!

shame on you, Tkeith!

and I hate to ask, but is the gov't shutting down tonite?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Tu necessito mucho frio cervesa y Geritol me amigo...Mui rapido...
Si...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I see white in that picture...Severe is under way..
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Back to you Keeper
206
WFUS54 KOUN 082344
TOROUN
OKC071-090015-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0002.110408T2344Z-110409T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 644 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR KILDARE...
OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE KILDARE AND NORTHERN KAW LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.



LAT...LON 3688 9679 3678 9675 3677 9678 3677 9706
3685 9709 3689 9699 3695 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 254DEG 21KT 3681 9699



BURKE


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The Nexlab OK Page
The Nexlab TX Page
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Keeper, I was waiting on that
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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Quoting hurricaneben:


You know what could also be possible? A potential Subtropical Storm Arlene a few weeks ahead near the Mid-Atlantic US Coast. The NCEP models about 200-250 hours out has been hinting at a growing low like that.


Hi Ben,
Nearly at the end of this page, Interesting what you have to say and I do think you have a point here.

Last year when we here had predicted with only local witnesses to confirm that not one of all those hurricanes would hit the US, we also predicted that there was a possibility that the 'bulk' of the gulf stream might hang close to the continental US and divert towards Greenland.
I know 'they will rip me to bits for this,' but if a gulf stream diversion tended to happen as it has historically in the distant past then you could get invests forming off the mid Atlantic US coast.

''Shrieks closing eyes and running to dark corners for fear of the onslaught that saying this must bring''

Always keep an open mind!!
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 644 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR KILDARE...
OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE KILDARE AND NORTHERN KAW LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 9679 3678 9675 3677 9678 3677 9706
3685 9709 3689 9699 3695 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 254DEG 21KT 3681 9699

$$

BURKE
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Quoting Grothar:


Tienes razon pero muy confuso. el LOL
Tu necessito mucho frio cervesa y Geritol me amigo...Mui rapido...
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Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
Wall cloud just north of 412 and four miles W of I 35!
3 minutes ago via iPhone · 1851 · Like · · Share
Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
Supercell exploding in Garfield to Kay Co, Okalhoma. Very large rain-free base and may have just split. Tornado watch issued! TVN almost in position.. We'll be streaming live on http://TornadoVideos.net/live
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements. SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 632 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
TORNADO WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 732 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 729 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 724 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 719 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 717 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 715 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 613 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 601 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 659 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 546 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 536 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 629 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 626 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 625 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 601 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 557 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 556 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 553 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 551 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 542 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 542 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 509 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 505 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 503 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 502 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 444 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 439 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 431 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 429 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 416 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 407 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 404 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 342 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 336 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 334 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 331 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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Quoting emcf30:
Jason, where is that article from?


The Weather Channel

Link
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567
WFUS51 KRNK 082332
TORRNK
VAC035-063-155-090000-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0006.110408T2332Z-110409T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
WESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

* AT 728 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PULASKI...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PULASKI...
DRAPER...
ALLISONIA...
INDIAN VALLEY...
DUGSPUR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6
6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.



LAT...LON 3712 8083 3695 8046 3680 8061 3707 8091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 310DEG 35KT 3706 8080



DS


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

They have had alot of severe TS warnings this afternoon in KY, WV, and now TW in VA
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Jason, where is that article from?
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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They have a large wall cloud with rotation they are tracking on tornadovideos.net. It just to the West of Red Rock. Nice streaming video of it.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting Grothar:


de nada!

Glad to have you on board. Ever been on here during Hurricane season?


Encantaro,
No I always seem to get stuck up some windmill or an a slippery roof during the summer, under the merciless sun but this year I am going to study what I have have endured for decades, in the form of those damm ripping, tearing, blinding, winds.

I cant even hope to comment on what you sages take in your strides in the 'season' but I/we,{La Red,] will sit back and absorb all.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
KOTG, its the EPac that caught my eye in this map.... pretty warm so far.... posibilities for earlier storm activity on that side of the ithmus, so long as we also see Twaves early on....

Anybody remember our earliest Twave from last year?
sometime in late april when the first waves started last season
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Quoting PlazaRed:


It was all a little 'confudo' as these things are with at least 4 tounges being used at the same time here!!
Muchisimo gracias para su atension y presencia en nuestra pequinia mundo.

What limits language imposes upon us?


de nada!

Glad to have you on board. Ever been on here during Hurricane season?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
KOTG, its the EPac that caught my eye in this map.... pretty warm so far.... posibilities for earlier storm activity on that side of the ithmus, so long as we also see Twaves early on....

Anybody remember our earliest Twave from last year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:
An Armatures View!!

First, thanks to 620. EYEStoSEA for sending me a useful link earlier on the pesty earthquakes in the Little Rock area.

more in keeping with the 'blog.'

As a watcher of skies and storms for many decades now, I am really glad to have found via a US friend of mine your site and although I have no formal training in anomalies of weather I do spend a lot of time watching it from roofs, windmills and solar panels that I work on in Europe.

Here's my totally simple opinion of what will happen this year in the Atlantic theater.
We have already had the first invest at 90L and I was under it for a few days but leaving that out of the equation, the concern must lie in the fact that Africa is trapped between 2 very hot bodies of water, the moist heat that is generated over central Africa will spill out across the Atlantic, {Skye noticed some of it weeks ago,} and course up into the Caribbean, very early this year and I would go for the sight of invest 91L possibly off the north coast of south America in the last week of April.
I cant help thinking what would happen if the mid Atlantic started to look like the Indian Ocean does now in the 'World Map?'Tropical!
Only an armatures opinion.


You know what could also be possible? A potential Subtropical Storm Arlene a few weeks ahead near the Mid-Atlantic US Coast. The NCEP models about 200-250 hours out has been hinting at a growing low like that.
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598
WUUS54 KOUN 082313
SVROUN
OKC003-011-047-093-090015-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0009.110408T2313Z-110409T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
613 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CANTON LAKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALINE...AMES...CANTON LAKE...
CARRIER...CLEO SPRINGS...FAIRVIEW...GOLTRY...HELENA...HILLSDALE.. .
HOMESTEAD...ISABELLA...LAHOMA...LONGDALE...MENO... OKEENE...ORIENTA
AND RINGWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.



LAT...LON 3659 9797 3635 9802 3609 9829 3605 9840
3607 9864 3616 9864 3617 9870 3639 9861
3641 9853 3659 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 211DEG 27KT 3613 9856



BURKE


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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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Quoting Grothar:


Tienes razón, pero muy confuso. RAC


It was all a little 'confudo' as these things are with at least 4 tounges being used at the same time here!!
Muchisimo gracias para su atension y presencia en nuestra pequinia mundo.

What limits language imposes upon us?
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Evening all.

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
gas is 4.01 over here its went up 20 cents in one week!!
We had almost a $1.00 increase within the last 3 weeks in March... from 4.57 to 4.20... For no real reason, either.

I'm so sorry Mr. Obama wussed out to big oil when it comes to alternative energy.
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Quoting PlazaRed:


No pasar nada!! { It dosnt matter as long as you continue to know what you are doing, plus 100 other translations that dont really gel in English.}

DE Ja WU,[[DE, French, Ja, Greman,WU, American,]]means:- {antes su tiempo,} before its time!! Before the Weather, {el TIEMPO, in Spanish,}

Clarify with Heir Grother!


Tienes razon pero muy confuso. el LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.