Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

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Quoting PRweathercenter:
I'm sorry about the videos guys!! I didn't know it would slow down the blog, it won't happen again.


Thanks, PR!
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000
WFUS53 KDMX 100141
TORDMX
IAC161-100215-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0020.110410T0141Z-110410T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
841 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SAC COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 839 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ODEBOLT...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF STORM LAKE. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS WARNING
REPLACES THE PREVIOUS TORNADO WARNINGS FOR SAC COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAC CITY...EARLY...NEMAHA AND LYTTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM.
IMMEDIATELY SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
REINFORCED BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...SEEK
SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...FIND THE
LOWEST SPOT AVAILABLE AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4244 9533 4257 9503 4257 9493 4256 9492
4248 9492 4247 9488 4238 9486 4227 9523
4242 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 242DEG 26KT 4240 9517

$$



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1129. xcool
The storm sequence across the western Atlantic Ocean and the lower 48 states may draw most of the attention here (note the MCS with severe weather in lower Appalachia and the Piedmont). But of future concern is the still-active ITCZ, which is showing discrete development of impulses already near Ecuador, over western Brazil, and approaching Guyana. The pattern for clearly-defined convective clusters with defined circulation favors and early and intense start to the 2011 Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone season.

METEOSAT
SMHI

The presence of a massive ridge over northern Africa and western Europe will promote near-record warmth in many of the cities of the European Union between now and April 19. A cold trough over western Russia is drifting southward, and may soon bring unseasonable chills to Anatolia and the Levant. The ITCZ is most active over Nigeria with a huge thunderstorm complex.

IODC
Dundee University

The southern branch has sprouted three strong disturbances (Armenia, Tibet and the eastern PRC, all of which may help to ease the drought conditions in South Asia. The MJO convective shield is not part of the equation in the Indian Ocean theater, remaining locked up and in a weakened state over Indonesia.

by Larry Cosgrove's
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Quoting Boca:
Putting a number on "named" storms and relating it to history to me is bogus. Like "digital" television the picture becomes more clear with the development of the technology. These guys should eliminate the # of named storms and spend their time learning how to be more accurate with their landfall information. If they want to be in the prediction business and get all the headlines tell me who is going to win the next superbowl. Just sayin...
You're asking for something impossible.

To predict, with accuracy, the exact number of named storms, hurricanes, majors, and cat 5, or as you want it, to predict the exact location of storms, is literally impossible this far out.

Top forecasters even have trouble telling you where a hurricane will go 5 days out, how are they supposed to do that 2 months out when there isn't even a storm to track?
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I'm sorry about the videos guys!! I didn't know it would slow down the blog, it won't happen again. you can see the videos on this site now
Link
Did you guys know Puerto Rico has a 51 % chance of tropical cyclone coming within 50 miles from the island?
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Climate Change Poses Major Risks for Unprepared Cities

ScienceDaily (Apr. 7, 2011) - Cities worldwide are failing to take necessary steps to protect residents from the likely impacts of climate change, even though billions of urban dwellers are vulnerable to heat waves, sea level rise and other changes associated with warming temperatures.

A new examination of urban policies by Patricia Romero Lankao at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., in conjunction with an international research project on cities and climate change, warns that many of the world's fast-growing urban areas, especially in developing countries, will likely suffer disproportionately from the impacts of changing climate.

Link
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1125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1123. emcf30
Quoting Ameister12:
Andy Gabrielson has video of severe damage in Mapleton,IA,


Jayhawker had a good stream real close to the tornado. Could see damage. Tornado was very visable in the lighting flashes. He is currently not streaming.Still in Mableton where it hit
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
What's the chance of there being a high risk tomorrow? I hear it could be worse than tonight.
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Andy Gabrielson has video of severe damage in Mapleton,IA,
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The Red River of the North is flooding for the 3rd year in a row. It looks like it's cresting at 38.7ft today and will stay high for a while. This is the 3rd "500-year flood" here in a row, WTF is going on???

The GW deniers can kiss my rear end.
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1117. emcf30
Reed reporting large tornado with major damage in mapleton IA
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1116. emcf30
Reed Timmer reporting large tornado close range
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1115. aquak9
Reed Timmer in the mess of it, hope he's wearing running shoes.
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1114. Skyepony (Mod)
.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37327
1113. emcf30
Quoting Skyepony:
Most of them ended up around Tulsa, OK lastnight. Interesting where everyone picked to start the chase from.


When it comes to chasing, most of them really have their acts together for sure. i am sure they are gathering a lot of good data to study
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1112. Skyepony (Mod)
Most of them ended up around Tulsa, OK lastnight. Interesting where everyone picked to start the chase from.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37327
1111. emcf30
Quoting Skyepony:
Chasers all over this outbreak.


Yea they are broke up in two groups, down in Ks and Neb and Iowa borders. getting good video.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Chasers all over this outbreak.
event forecasted well in advance
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1109. Skyepony (Mod)
Chasers all over this outbreak.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37327
1108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Very intense hook.
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Ps. Also may be a little something stirring in SoCentral KS.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
As advertised by SPC, storms at NE/IA border. You can see them as infants in the visible emcf30 posted at comment 1100.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
1104. aquak9
Nice little hook echo. It has to start somewhere.

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1103. xcool
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/storm-center-cam1

going here Storm Center Coverage Covering The Upcoming Hurricane
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1102. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1101. emcf30
581
WFUS53 KOAX 092339
TOROAX
IAC133-100030-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0009.110409T2339Z-110410T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
639 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MONONA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITING...OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITING...ONAWA...LEWIS AND CLARK STATE PARK...KENNEBEC...TURIN AND
CASTANA.

THE WARNED AREA INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
112 AND 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 4214 9591 4201 9585 4196 9600 4207 9627
4213 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 298DEG 13KT 4208 9619



NIETFELD
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1100. emcf30
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1099. emcf30
img src="968 WUUS53 KOAX 092253 SVROAX NEC039-173-092345- /O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0012.110409T2253Z-110409T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 553 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CUMING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... CENTRAL THURSTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF BANCROFT...OR 36 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BANCROFT...WALTHILL...MACY AND ROSALIE. THE WARNED AREA INCLUDES HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 164. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL ONE INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. LAT...LON 4224 9634 4222 9634 4222 9636 4221 9636 4220 9635 4217 9635 4216 9633 4205 9633 4202 9644 4202 9655 4198 9656 4194 9669 4200 9679 4213 9662 TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 225DEG 28KT 4203 9666 WIND...HAIL

The beginning?
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1098. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting PlazaRed:

1094, Interesting:-

If you hit a large ceramic tile with a hammer and push one of the edges/sides of it the pieces don't behave like they were one tile any more.

Based on this idea, if you push a lot of the north eastern japan coast in a lifting and sightly westerly direction by up to 30 meters/100 feet then it seem to follow that you will get a tearing effect in a west to easterly direction around Tokyo.

Only from a simplistic point of view but the Tokyo area must be heavily strained at the junction with the Philippine plate now.

Don't worry; the next--or should I say upcoming--Tokai earthquake will relieve all that strain almost at once. If that goes as many seismologists believe it will, the damage and deaths will be perhaps three or four times worse than that caused by last month's monster--and that doesn't include the five nuclear reactor sites directly in harm's way.

684: 8.3
887: 8.5 (203 years)
1096: 8.4 (209)
1361: 8.5 (265)
1498: 8.4 (137)
1605: 7.9 (107)
1707: 8.4 (102)
1854: 8.4 (147)
20??: 8.? (157 and counting)

So: anytime between now and 2115, and with a magnitude in the range 7.9 to 8.5 (that is, between 1/44th and 1/5th as strong as last month's quake, but far closer to one of the world's most crowded population centers).
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1094, Interesting:-

If you hit a large ceramic tile with a hammer and push one of the edges/sides of it the pieces don't behave like they were one tile any more.

Based on this idea, if you push a lot of the north eastern japan coast in a lifting and sightly westerly direction by up to 30 meters/100 feet then it seem to follow that you will get a tearing effect in a west to easterly direction around Tokyo.

Only from a simplistic point of view but the Tokyo area must be heavily strained at the junction with the Philippine plate now.
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Quoting caribbeantracker01:



yep seems right


Uh-oh, appears like this is the season for us in South Florida...well as long as it's no catastrophe.
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6.1 off the coast of Kyushu (the southern island) at a depth of 13 miles (SSE of the island).

This is pretty much right on the eastern edge of the subduction zone where the Eurasian plate rides over the Philippine plate (as opposed to the Pacific plate for the 9.0)

(on the 9.0, I've read some expert commentary suggesting that that quake actually increased strain in the Tokyo area.)

WTO
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Quiet Saturday night? So far!

Interesting quake of 4.9 inside the Tokyo bay area,doesn't seem to be connected to the other bigger one to the south earlier but this area has been a bit too quiet compared to the northern coasts and might be about to do a bit of catching up. not even a major rattle by Japan standards but oak trees grow from acorns.

I think that although it is a healthy thing for people to comment on just about anything, people also should not criticise what they do not wish to understand. Learning is easy but you have to want to do it.
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1087. Gearsts
Quoting alfabob:
Thats shear? Explain to me!
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1086. aquak9
and we got Florida covered- it's stinky sweaty hot here in North Florida, too.
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1085. aquak9
Quoting Jedkins01:


yep because its easy to make long term predictions on where hurricanes are going to make landfall. Well buddy, it ain't that simple lets see you join me for some classes on Calculus and fluid dynamics. And that's just scratching the surface. When people say stuff like this it pisses me off even more than drunk fat fans who say pro football players suck and they aren't tryin hard enough.



Gain some prospective man.


+1
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.