The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 AM GMT on April 03, 2011

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The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.

A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.

In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.

The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.


Figure 2.
Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.

In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.


Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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off topic

Study: Maine Most Peaceful State; Louisiana Least
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1517. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good day all i see CSU forecasts are out

interesting
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53517
1516. hydrus
Quoting jeffs713:

Good morning! Been hiding much? Long time no see!
Our next severe weather event....
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I don't have the specifics in front of me but all of the agencies forecasted a significantly above normal year. That did happen. What was missed badly was the forecast of landfalls - specifically in the U.S. No one saw the pattern change that pretty much guarded the entire U.S. all summer.


thanks!
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1514. Jax82
An interesting topic we'll have to talk about Friday is whether or not Congress approves the budget. If they dont, the Govt will shut down (essential services would not be, ie national security, air traffic control, etc). I wonder what the implications of that would be for the NWS and NOAA? There also will be a lot of people not going to work. Could get very interesting.
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1513. Gearsts
probabilities.
As an example we find that the probability of Florida being hit by a major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane this year is 34% which is substantially higher than the yearly climatological average of 21%.
South Florida is much more prone to being impacted by a hurricane on an individual year basis compared with northeast Florida. For instance, the probability of Miami-Dade County being impacted by hurricane-force wind gusts this year is 19%. For Duval County, the probability of being impacted by hurricane-force wind gusts is only 5%. However, considering a 50-year period, the probability of Duval County experiencing hurricane-force wind gusts is 75%.
For the island of Puerto Rico, the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island this year is 50%, 26%, and 8%,
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1461 Jax82 "There may not be a whole lot of weather in the U.S. to talk about today, but space weather is kicking up in the Arctic.
More Arctic lights are in the offing. A solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, and NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% - 25% chance of high-latitude geomagnetic activity during the next 24 hours
."

The picture has more to do with Arctic circulation patterns. Pretty clouds in the Arctic skies...

...can herald ozone depletion. "By the end of March, [up to] 40% of the ozone in the stratosphere had been destroyed [in the NorthernHemisphere's worst affected areas], against a previous record of 30%."

The Scandinavians and the Russians are gonna have an easy time tanning up before bikini season.

Just kidding. The amount of the most radiation-damaging UltraViolet increases more in comparison to the less harmful tanning UV when the ozone shield weakens. So it ain't as healthy to be out in the Sun as in normal times.
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1511. snotly
Read and learn.

Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 683
1510. aquak9
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Are you implying that I can't use the change I get back on my food stamps to wander straight on over to the lotto machine or liquor department anymore. Now that's a major swoon.


hahaha- good one, cat5!
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1509. Patrap
The operator of Japan's stricken Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant says it has finally plugged a leak of highly radioactive water that had been draining into the Pacific. (April 6)

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Quoting jeffs713:
A farmer products goods, teachers provide services. Apples to oranges.

As for 10 weeks off per year, its 9-11 hour days when working. And their time off is largely restricted to summers and Christmas break, when vacation prices are the highest. Using my numbers from before, based on 10 hours per day (6:30a to 5:00p, with a 30 minute lunch), and 42 weeks per year, 5 days per week, they work 2100 hours per year. (that is slightly over the 2080 that most 8-5 people work without including paid vacation.


Jeff, i'm not sure where your getting your 9-11 hour work days. I have many family members that are teachers that work 7-4 and have little take home work to do with the age of todays technology. Most test are graded at school and each teacher has a 1 hour per day for prep. So, i am not sure where your getting this time of overwork you talk of. Now, if you choose to be an Administrator then, yes they put in the extra time with sports events but, their compensated nicely for that time and responsibility.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1505. Patrap
Seems rehab isnt all its cracked up to be for some.

Radar Lub




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1504. Patrap
When a given Cane Forecast can tell What, where and when,,I'll give it the full attention it deserves,,til den,,I trust a dart board better.
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1503. aquak9
good for you eddy- I wish more people would work hard to get better at life, rather than sitting back and accepting handouts from the gov't
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Get real Bob. You are obviously missing the point. I hear it from my parents and their teacher friends all the time. What it boils down to is nowadays teachers have to almost exclusively teach for testing. They are eliminating physical education, music, art, etc and children should be well rounded not professional test takers. Teaching is subjective but the for-profit crowd want to quantify it like it's used car sales. I think U.S. teachers will begin migrating to other countries who pay their teachers handsomely instead of giving lip service to the profession. Teachers are who educates EVERYONE in this country. What are we without teachers? I find it highly hypocritical how we always express our admiration and appreciation for teachers, present them with awards and all types of other stroke jobs but we can't even pay them commensurate with their importance in society. So yes, taking away collective bargaining rights and giving 5% pay cuts is absolutely an attack on teachers. I don't hear anyone asking corporations or millionaires / billionaires to give up 5% of their salary for the "greater good", do you? Why is that? Who do you think can better afford to give up 5% of their salary? Someone making 40k per year or someone making 40 million per year? Hmmm....



First of all, the teacher's pension isn't for 'the greater good' it's for the good of the teacher. Like it or not, teachers are paid by the taxpayers. In rough economic times, tax revenue is down. Teachers, like every other public employee groups, have to take a bit of a hit.

What other professions work 196 days per year and get paid full time and have good benefits and a pension plan? You guys keep bringing up millionaires and billionaires. That has absolutely nothing to do with this argument.
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Quoting hurricaneeye:
Hey there!

I would like to know what the forecast for 2010 Hurricane Season was, and how accurate it was as to the number of hurricanes for the atlantic basin.

Thanks in advance


I don't have the specifics in front of me but all of the agencies forecasted a significantly above normal year. That did happen. What was missed badly was the forecast of landfalls - specifically in the U.S. No one saw the pattern change that pretty much guarded the entire U.S. all summer.
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1499. Patrap
Phunny,,I know a ditch digger who can punctuate.

"WINNING" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting RMuller:


Why should one be taxed simply because he owns property? In my opinion that is a violation of the Constitution and a form of involuntary servitude. If you are being charged to own property, you don't really own it, do you? You are renting it. Also, spending more on education certainly doesn't improve it. It's been estimated that 2/3 of eighth graders in public school cannot read at their grade level. The teachers' unions have destroyed any semblamce of success that public schools might have had years ago. I understand that it isn't completely the fault of the teachers, but private school numbers are much, much higher in aptitude tests. The public education system needs to be disbanded, and the students placed in schools where the teachers are held accountable.


HUM,,,,Don't know about all you say but, the Teachers Union has destroyed Education. When they use last in first out as a standard of cutting teachers without considering a teachers merits or performance, i believe most would say this is wrong. The accountability must start somewhere, so the State must step up to give accountability somehow since the Teachers Union really does not care about Educating the young other than protecting workforce. I would suggest that Teachers would make better pay with better benefits without the Teachers Union protection.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Hey there!

I would like to know what the forecast for 2010 Hurricane Season was, and how accurate it was as to the number of hurricanes for the atlantic basin.

Thanks in advance
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1493. aquak9
Quoting cat5hurricane:

"It's a free country"...

Yeah, at the moment. You just enraged our friend in post 1464.


eddy's job is usually to attempt to enrage.

Besides, it's not like he studied hard in grammar class. The world still needs ditch diggers.
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1492. Patrap
Please refrain from the off topic stuff.

We get the pic.

Thanx, maybe someone can do a personal entry on that topic.
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1491. BDAwx
Some severe weather this morning in Bermuda. This is the same system that brought the almost 2000 reports of severe weather to the US over three days.

Tornado was reported in Hamilton Parish near Shelly Bay. Pictures show what looks like roof damage, trees snapped in half and uprooted, and a boundary wall damaged and partially knocked over.Link to Article
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Quoting eddy12:
a farmer is pretty important to everyone without him you would not eat how much should we pay him 125,000 dollars per year and for jeffs who compared rn's and firefighters salaries to teachers i was not aware they got 10 weeks off per year bottom line if you do not like the salary of the job you have do another it's a free country
A farmer products goods, teachers provide services. Apples to oranges.

As for 10 weeks off per year, its 9-11 hour days when working. And their time off is largely restricted to summers and Christmas break, when vacation prices are the highest. Using my numbers from before, based on 10 hours per day (6:30a to 5:00p, with a 30 minute lunch), and 42 weeks per year, 5 days per week, they work 2100 hours per year. (that is slightly over the 2080 that most 8-5 people work without including paid vacation.
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mornin.. for some reason i cant open the links to dr grays forecast??? could someone email me the forecast thanks!!!
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1486. aquak9
taz- I hope not, too!
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Quoting eddy12:
a farmer is pretty important to everyone without him you would not eat how much should we pay him 125,000 dollars per year and for jeffs who compared rn's and firefighters salaries to teachers i was not aware they got 10 weeks off per year bottom line if you do not like the salary of the job you have do another it's a free country


Ah, 10 extra weeks off per year.. must be nice...

That's what I want my kids teachers to be doing: cramming 60/70 hours into a week for the rest of the year. They must be great at giving kids that extra little bit of attention that is required!

Teaching is one of the most imprtant jobs out there, next to the job of the person operating on me or flying my plane. If they are overpaid and relaxed, I am really happy.
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1484. Patrap
Latest Satellite Imagery
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CSU for the first time,mention in a sentence where I am,Puerto Rico,and I dont like those numbers.

For the island of Puerto Rico, the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island this year is 50%, 26%, and 8%,respectivly
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I know a girl in her early 20s straight outta college at a rich school district in TX and they started her out around 42-43,000 a year
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1481. Patrap
North American Surface Analysis

Hourly Surface Data for the Continental U.S.
View the National Weather Service Unified Surface Analysis

HPC's Surface Analysis Archive
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1480. Patrap
Lawdy,,what a side bar conversation for a Weds.

Weather and Climate Data

Quick Looks and meteograms
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Quoting RMuller:


Why should one be taxed simply because he owns property? In my opinion that is a violation of the Constitution and a form of involuntary servitude. If you are being charged to own property, you don't really own it, do you? You are renting it. Also, spending more on education certainly doesn't improve it. It's been estimated that 2/3 of eighth graders in public school cannot read at their grade level. The teachers' unions have destroyed any semblamce of success that public schools might have had years ago. I understand that it isn't completely the fault of the teachers, but private school numbers are much, much higher in aptitude tests. The public education system needs to be disbanded, and the students placed in schools where the teachers are held accountable.


Actually, it's not against the constitution.

Taxes are a means of ensuring the common defense. Why should I pay the same amount as you to protect much less? Why should we have to pay income tax? Or sales tax? Or any tax at all? Why should the taxes on a ferrari cost more than taxes on a bicycle? why should there be inheritance tax?

I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think a lot of the inheritance and property taxes were started back when people had huge estates that just sat there forever.

I'd be happy to live in a tax free society except that taxes are there because of the transaction costs in economic exchange. EG if you want to pay a toll everytime you drive off your property, fine, don't pay road taxes. Same with the Fire Department and the Police and so on. When a soldier goes to Iraq searching for weapons of distruction, do you send a check to his family to protect your house? A lot of the things that taxes pay for created the America that was, for a while, the best country in the world. Take away taxes and we might as well go live in huts, or castles if we happen to be lucky in birth.

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1470.

You talk a lot of talk, but I don't see any solutions. I see "the public school system should be disbanded" and "property tax should be eliminated", but no replacements.

Private school education is prohibitively expensive for a vast majority of families. Accountability of teachers is extremely difficult, due to the nature of teaching. Teachers are not the only variable. The children are HUGE variables. The school is a variable. The parents are a HUGE variable. You can have a kid that is very intelligent in a bad school with unsupportive parents, and the teacher would be screwed. Or you could have a kid who is borderline mentally retarded, in the greatest school in the district, with supportive parents... and the teacher is screwed. If school funding is constantly stripped, and teachers are constantly denied tools and the freedom to educate our children, OF COURSE they will fail. Its like asking someone to drive from San Francisco to New York in a car with no wheels and no gas money. Take some time to talk to teachers. Take some time to do some research. Get off your Tea Party Express soapbox, and live with the rest of us for a bit before casting down judgement from on high.

As for property taxes - Texas does not have an income tax, and property taxes the primary form of state funding. The same state funding that is at or near the bottom of many comparative scales on a per-capita basis for many services from education to healthcare to transportation. Take away property taxes, you have a bankrupt state. Oh, our gasoline tax is fixed on a per-gallon basis on 1992 levels, NOT adjusted for inflation. And we have more miles of roads than nearly all other states. SO... if you are proposing no property tax, please feel free to let me know how you are going to fund essential services. I'm genuinely interested to hear your ideas, since you seem to know everything.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Heard this morning that the Prime Minister in Italy is a crook and no good. Having sex parties and orgies and under age girl just thru the gate wide open. These damn politicians need to be whacked literally. Oust em all out by force

Link


Living here, it's a lot worse than that.

The under-age girl stuff doesn't bother me given that the girl in question is on record calling her father to ask advice on how to extort money from B and looks and acts like she is 24 - which is the age she told everyone. Not that underage sex is right or that she didn't have a screwed up life, but I think she wouldn't have had access to him if there was any question about her age. The Bunga - Bunga stuff is true (the underwater orgies, the sex parties, and so on) but what old single man doesn't pay for sex? In short, B got caught with jailbait but not because he has any tendency in that direction (my opinion at least).

The worse crime is that he is basically doing a leveraged buyout of Italy. B has been crooked from the moment he stopped singing on the cruise ships: his money is dirty, his politics is dirty, he is a traitor.

Italy is a great country with great people. However, like all countries Italy is cursed with a percentage of people who have no talent or desire for a normal life: hence they become politicians. Don't ask me why they get away with it because Italians on average are not like that.
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Quoting aquak9:
Another 5.5 offa Honshu, Japan.

This makes three at 5.0 or greater, within the last 12 hours.



i hop they dont have other big one on the way
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Quoting BobinTampa:


missed this earlier. I have no clue about education?? that doesn't even make any sense.

Let me ask this? What is wrong with your wife having to work to get the kids' scores up? Isn't that her job?

And if you read my other post, I'd be in favor of your wife make MORE than those who don't work their butt off. Why isn't that fair? Why is EVERYTHING an attack on ALL teachers??



Get real Bob. You are obviously missing the point. I hear it from my parents and their teacher friends all the time. What it boils down to is nowadays teachers have to almost exclusively teach for testing. They are eliminating physical education, music, art, etc and children should be well rounded not professional test takers. Teaching is subjective but the for-profit crowd want to quantify it like it's used car sales. I think U.S. teachers will begin migrating to other countries who pay their teachers handsomely instead of giving lip service to the profession. Teachers are who educates EVERYONE in this country. What are we without teachers? I find it highly hypocritical how we always express our admiration and appreciation for teachers, present them with awards and all types of other stroke jobs but we can't even pay them commensurate with their importance in society. So yes, taking away collective bargaining rights and giving 5% pay cuts is absolutely an attack on teachers. I don't hear anyone asking corporations or millionaires / billionaires to give up 5% of their salary for the "greater good", do you? Why is that? Who do you think can better afford to give up 5% of their salary? Someone making 40k per year or someone making 40 million per year? Hmmm....
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Analog years selected by CSU for their April 2011 forecast. Most show a climatological normal year for number of named storms, but above normal ACE.


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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
April CSU Forecast




I say that forecast is pretty close to right.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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