The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 AM GMT on April 03, 2011

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The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.

A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.

In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.

The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.


Figure 2.
Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.

In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.


Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Okay, this is kind of humorous. I go to tornadovideos.net and there are a whole bunch of chasers on the page, all clustered close. So I look through some of them and find they all must be stopping for lunch. lol Only two were moving when I looked.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Forgot ur password, eh, altestic??? LOL

Good analysis, though. It would be interesting to see if years like 1992, where the first TC didn't form until mid-Aug, also had this abrupt shift. Of course, '92 was an el nino year, but it would still be interesting.


Apparantly 1991 was a neutral to weak El Nino year and then yes, seemed to jump up quickly the following spring to El Nino.

1998-1999 showed us that two strong La Ninas in a row doesn't really favor a hyperactive season on the second year. I think dry air would be a major contributor in that type of situation.
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Quoting TomTaylor:

Here's a geographical description of the "Top End" taken from a Wikipedia page:

"The landscape is relatively flat with river floodplains and grasslands with eucalyptus trees along with rocky areas and patches of rainforest, and in western Arnhem Land a high rugged sandstone plateau cut through with gorges, much of which is in Kakudu National Park. The rivers that form the wetlands include the South and East Alligator Rivers, Mary River, and the Glyde River. The climate is tropical monsoon with a wet and dry season, bringing the highest rainfall in northern Australia (over 1200mm per year). Temperatures do not fluctuate widely throughout the year."


Read more about it here also a map of what the top end is on that link.

Also, here is a Topographic map


Different climate zones:




About the tc intensifying over land, here's a sat loop



Now, the initial center of rotation seen overland at the start of the animation actually fades out. So I wouldn't really consider this intensification. Of the thunderstorms that do intensify, I wouldn't really call that over land. The thunderstorms end up pushing over land, however, they intensified over water. Keep in mind, its nighttime over there right now, so the reason for intensification just off the coast is likely due to the ocean being warmer than the land creating an offshore breeze. This breeze feeds the thunderstorms allowing them to grow.
OK, so that bears out my original impressions of the northern part of Oz being plateau / bluffs as opposed to lowlying / swampy.... I wasn't so much seeing intensification with this particular system, though I have seen others improve organization in the same area... I guess the fact that part of the circulation remains over open waters during the entire movement of the circulation centre over land might contribute to the continued organization of the entire system. Even crossing FL, I suppose there is a time when most of a TCs circulation would be overland, causing disruption.
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000
WEIO23 PHEB 032015
TIBIOX
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2015Z 03 APR 2011
THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.
... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...
THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 2007Z 03 APR 2011
COORDINATES - 9.9 SOUTH 107.6 EAST
LOCATION - SOUTH OF JAVA INDONESIA
MAGNITUDE - 6.7
EVALUATION
A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI
THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
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THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
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Forgot ur password, eh, altestic??? LOL

Good analysis, though. It would be interesting to see if years like 1992, where the first TC didn't form until mid-Aug, also had this abrupt shift. Of course, '92 was an el nino year, but it would still be interesting.
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Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 6.7
Date-Time Sunday, April 03, 2011 at 20:06:42 UTC
Monday, April 04, 2011 at 03:06:42 AM at epicenter

Location 9.786°S, 107.749°E
Depth 24 km (14.9 miles)
Region SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
Distances 241 km (150 miles) ENE (71°) from Christmas Island
279 km (173 miles) SSW (192°) from Tasikmalaya, Java, Indonesia
316 km (196 miles) S (176°) from Bandung, Java, Indonesia
421 km (262 miles) SSE (165°) from JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12 km (7.5 miles); depth +/- 7 km (4.3 miles)
Parameters NST=167, Nph=168, Dmin=242.7 km, Rmss=1.18 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc0002i9q
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I find it fascinating the way TCs maintain and even increase organization and strength over the northern OZ coast.... over the Bahamas it makes sense. Is that N Oz coast like the Everglades, ie. swampy?

Here's a geographical description of the "Top End" taken from a Wikipedia page:

"The landscape is relatively flat with river floodplains and grasslands with eucalyptus trees along with rocky areas and patches of rainforest, and in western Arnhem Land a high rugged sandstone plateau cut through with gorges, much of which is in Kakudu National Park. The rivers that form the wetlands include the South and East Alligator Rivers, Mary River, and the Glyde River. The climate is tropical monsoon with a wet and dry season, bringing the highest rainfall in northern Australia (over 1200mm per year). Temperatures do not fluctuate widely throughout the year."


Read more about it here also a map of what the top end is on that link.

Also, here is a Topographic map


Different climate zones:




About the tc intensifying over land, here's a sat loop



Now, the initial center of rotation seen overland at the start of the animation actually fades out. So I wouldn't really consider this intensification. Of the thunderstorms that do intensify, I wouldn't really call that over land. The thunderstorms end up pushing over land, however, they intensified over water. Keep in mind, its nighttime over there right now, so the reason for intensification just off the coast is likely due to the ocean being warmer than the land creating an offshore breeze. This breeze feeds the thunderstorms allowing them to grow.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting emcf30:
Jed you remember this one
img src="">



Oh yes! That is a very well known one too because most Florida tornadoes are not so visible in the open like that, on top of that it was near one of the biggest cities in the U.S.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Guys I just figured out something...

A neutral season with a slightly warm bias, which is predicted for the start of this year's hurricane season, leads to a lot of early season activity like we saw in 2005 and 2008 under the same conditions.

Prove me wrong, but it is my humble belief that tropical cyclone activity lags behind whenever there's an enormous change in the ENSO over the spring, whether it's La Nina-El Nino (2009) or El Nino-La Nina (2010).

Many people believed that last year, based on the record-high SSTs and the probability of the quick formation of a La Nina pattern straight down from El Nino, that we might witness a season similar to or even more active than the incredulous 2005 hurricane season. I did not. I predicted 15-20 because the water was so hot and the shear so low, which proved accurate, but after two and a half months of hurricane season, only three named storms had formed. The season and its predictions was saved later due to the sheer magnitude of the SSTs in the MDR, though 2010 was largely a fish storm year (that was due to the weak and easterly Bermuda High, though, another topic altogether).

The reasoning behind this lack of activity is, in my opinion, simply due to the fact that last spring's El Nino simply dropped like a rock just in time for the start of hurricane season, which caused an atmospheric and oceanic lag -- causing TC activity to sort-of "fall behind" the rapid change of ENSO conditions, which essentially delayed the hurricane season by nearly three months.

In a neutral season like 2005 which had about the same SSTs as 2010, the weak El Nino from 2004-05 had gradually deteriorated to a neutral ENSO with a slight warm bias by the start of hurricane season. This smooth downward curve led to no atmospheric lag with favorable conditions and boiling SSTs, which led to a record 7 storms forming in the June-July period. The warm bias would slowly change to a cool bias by September and to a weak La Nina by November-ish, which extended the season to a degree. The season would finish with a record 27/16.

In a neutral season such as 2008 which had much cooler SSTs, even cooler than in seasons such as 2007 and (in some cases) 2006, one would not predict such an active hurricane season without knowing all the innuendos of the ENSO's effect on Atlantic tropical conditions. However, what occurred was as follows: the La Nina had degenerated steadily (but not rapidly) over the late winter and spring, and by the start of hurricane season, sat on, once again (you guessed it) -- neutral conditions with a warm bias. However, there was no sign that an El Nino would form, and it didn't. Remaining neutral with a slight warm bias through mid-late July, the hurricane season would get off to a quick 5-storm start, with a couple other entities that could have formed not forming. ENSO would take a dip beginning in August, gradually becoming a La Nina once again, and the season would finish with a total of 16 storms and 2 landfalling US hurricanes despite less-than-favorable SSTs for the most part.

My point I'm trying to make is that neutral seasons with even perhaps a slight warm bias leads to the most early-season activity (and even overall activity), providing that that neutral season hadn't dropped like a rock from El Nino or La Nina in a short period of time in the late spring.

In the spring of 2011 the ENSO seems to be gradually moving towards neutral conditions, and by June there is expected to be -- once again -- neutral conditions, with a warm bias, curving slowly back down to cool neutral or dead neutral as the season progresses. No El Nino is forecast for this season, and the chance for a La Nina before late fall also appears slim. This is a 2008 setup, and we should likely see the early-season activity that we have been starved of since 2008.

The other factor is the SSTs: SSTs in the MDR are currently about halfway between 2005 and 2008. The Caribbean is comparable to 2008, while the Gulf is warmer at this time than in both years. I don't look at the Gulf and Caribbean in April. Both of those basins tend to warm up to above average in all seasons within the warm-AMO providing there's no significant El Nino developing during the hurricane season or anything. But in a season that's expected to share analogous ENSO conditions by the time hurricane season officially begins to both 2005 and 2008, in a year when MDR SSTs continue to be above average and well above 2008 at this time (albeit, below 2005 and 2010), we could at this point, begin to anticipate a season with totals possibly amounting to at least as high as 2008 in all categories, probably even more than that providing that neutral conditions dominate throughout the season as they're expected to do and some random wrench isn't thrown into the hurricane season such as an unexpected prolonged outbreak of TUTTs and wind shear (however wind shear is expected to be below average this season just as it was in '05 and '08).

My early prediction for this hurricane season is 17/11/5.

Just my meteorological 2¢!
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Quoting wxgeek723:
I find it crazy that we've arrived at the year scheduled to recycle the 2005 names.
Yeah.... six years since I started posting on Dr. M's blog....
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Jed you remember this one
img src="">
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The complexity is what makes it worthwhile.


For sure!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
I find it crazy that we've arrived at the year scheduled to recycle the 2005 names.
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I find it fascinating the way TCs maintain and even increase organization and strength over the northern OZ coast.... over the Bahamas it makes sense. Is that N Oz coast like the Everglades, ie. swampy?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The subsurface isn't particularly warm at the moment, however:

Gulf of Mexico



Caribbean Sea



Atlantic


No, they're not...which is why I was (and have been) referring to surface temps--that is, SSTs.

As last years showed us, very warm water is no guarantee of tropical storm development, just as 2005 showed us that cold waters are no guarantee that a storm won't develop.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Quoting Grothar:


FROM WIKI:

The state which has the highest number of tornadoes per unit area is Florida, although most of the tornadoes in Florida are weak tornadoes of F0 or F1 intensity. A number of Florida's tornadoes occur along the edge of hurricanes that strike the state. The state with the highest number of strong tornadoes per unit area is Oklahoma. The neighboring state of Kansas is another particularly notorious tornado state. It records the most F4 and F5 tornadoes in the country.



Yep, I definitely know my severe weather facts of Florida :) and many other places too.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well this explains perfectly why people on the blog are putting so much emphasis on SSTs.

I saw yesterday somebody mentioned people are putting too much emphasis on SSTs. The reason for this is it's the simplest factor to understand. The other factors which go into determining the activity of the season like el nino/la nina, ao & nao are not easy to determine since one first has to find the model forecasts. Then one has to be able to interpret what that model forecast means for the upcoming season (how el nino/la nina, or the ao & nao will affect wind patterns, sheer values, steering patterns, SSTs, etc. something poorly understood by even the best mets), while keeping in mind that it is just a model forecast and shouldn't be given too much emphasis either.
I think SSTs are also the first clear indicator of the arrival of the new storm season. When they begin to rise, pple know the season is nearly here. Also, areas with large positive anomalies tend to be breeding grounds for larger / more powerful cyclones. So looking at SSTs give bloggers early signals.

I think the person who mentioned too much emphasis on SSTs yesterday was trying to remind that they are not the sole deciding factor, but rather one piece of the puzzle...
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img src="">
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Quoting Levi32:
New CFSv2 is up and running. Here is the Nino 3.4 forecast from the new CFS, which, interestingly enough, supports the idea that El Nino may not be able to emerge next fall/winter.

Hmmm.... supports my thinking that 2011 may be another slow year for the globe....

BTW, good to see many of our "better" bloggers checking in this a.m. I'm not so sure we'll be having an earlier than average start to the season, but if the nuetral ENSO forecasts bear out, it could get interesting in a hairy sort of way along ASO....

Quoting Ossqss:
When TCHP comes up, make sure the understanding is in place with respect to the changes made in 08. It will come up :)

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/method .html

We need this as a "sticky" for the blog page.... lol
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes, the Northern Hemisphere waters warm up every spring; that's how it works. And, true, SSTs are far from the only or best predictor of hurricane activity. But anyone who knows anything at all about tropical weather will tell you that, all other things being equal, warmer water is more conducive to TS development and strength than cooler water. Period. And given that SSTs across the MDR are warmer than usual this year--perhaps because the winter wasn't cold enough or long enough overall to allow them to give up last year's record heat--the stage is certainly being set for earlier and/or more powerful development.


The subsurface isn't particularly warm at the moment, however:

Gulf of Mexico



Caribbean Sea



Atlantic

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195. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
TROPICAL LOW 25U
3:00 AM WST April 4 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 AM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 124.1E or 155 km north northeast of Derby and 295 km northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24 HRS

The low is currently close to the north Kimberley coast near Cape Leveque and may develop into a tropical cyclone during today as it moves towards the west southwest and over open water.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque today. GALES may extend further southwest to Broome and Bidyadanga later today if the system takes a more southerly track.

Tides may be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding over the north and northwest Kimberley today. Please refer to latest Flood Advices (IDW39610, IDW39890) for more details.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.4S 123.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.7S 121.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.2S 118.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.4S 116.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================

The centre has been difficult to locate, lying outside radar range. The current fix uses a combination of satellite imagery and surface observations. Convective structure had weakened during the day as the system interacted with land. Environmental shear is low at present, with CIMSS analysis of northerly shear of around 5m/s or less [at 12Z] .

Current Dvorak analysis gives a DT=1.5 based on MET and PAT.

The low has recently been tracking to the SW, steered by a mid-level ridge to the south. Intensity will be constrained in the short term due to the proximity to land, before moving over open water with SSTs about 30C today. Shear is expected to be low to moderate, before increasing on Wednesday as an upper trough approaches. Under the expected track, the system is expected to encounter a deep mass of dry air to the southwest which will limit intensification potential.

The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks has a relatively low spread. If the system attains a stronger intensity and is able to resist the intrusion of dry air, it may adopt a southerly track ahead of the approaching upper trough. Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.


The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Perth on Tropical Low 25U will be issued at 22:00 PM UTC..
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I have only lived here since 96 but my neighbors told me about a close hit from a tornado more than once since they grew up. Apparently this area is a bigger tornado magnet than I realized!

One of these days, the big one will hit Tampa Bay, and Lord help us it ain't gonna be pretty.


FROM WIKI:

The state which has the highest number of tornadoes per unit area is Florida, although most of the tornadoes in Florida are weak tornadoes of F0 or F1 intensity. A number of Florida's tornadoes occur along the edge of hurricanes that strike the state. The state with the highest number of strong tornadoes per unit area is Oklahoma. The neighboring state of Kansas is another particularly notorious tornado state. It records the most F4 and F5 tornadoes in the country.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANG
11:00 PM PhST April 3 2011
=========================================

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Amang located at 11.2N 132.3E or 670 kms east of Borongan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Additional Information
========================
This weather disturbance is expected not to directly affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's actually not scary at all. Regardless of how cold a given winter is for the southern United States, SSTs will respond to heat. Basically, it's like this every year at this time.

Yes, the Northern Hemisphere waters warm up every spring; that's how it works. And, true, SSTs are far from the only or best predictor of hurricane activity. But anyone who knows anything at all about tropical weather will tell you that, all other things being equal, warmer water is more conducive to TS development and strength than cooler water. Period. And given that SSTs across the MDR are warmer than usual this year--perhaps because the winter wasn't cold enough or long enough overall to allow them to give up last year's record heat--the stage is certainly being set for earlier and/or more powerful development.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Gearsts, could you please fix your 171 post? It's stretching the page. Thanks.
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CIMSS SAL Split Window,Atlantic
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's actually not scary at all. Regardless of how cold a given winter is for the southern United States, SSTs will respond to heat. Basically, it's like this every year at this time.
Well, the SSTs in the gulf are particularly warmer this year. I do understand that by the time we get to July/August SSTs in the Atlantic are always warm enough. However, particularly early warmth as we have this year would allow for earlier formation, and, should the gulf remain above average warmth, it would allow for stronger storms come hurricane season.

Also, a warmer gulf at this time allows for more intense severe weather over the US. Once again, not necessarily more severe weather, but a greater chance for weather of greater severity. Similar to the relationship between a warmer planet and TC formation as Dr. M mentions in his blog.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
So what year is everyone comparing this hurricane season to? 2008 right? Why not 2009?
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Quoting Grothar:


Who said there wasn't any significant damage? Someone on the blog? I thought the pictures were terrible.


I'm not gonna name names to start fights and childish bickering, but there were some bloggers who said such things a few days ago.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Quoting Jedkins01:


haha exactly, and the science of hurricane development is exceedingly more complicated than just the need of warm water. Heck why do think after all the years of back breaking school work us weather students have to become to be real meteorologists, even those who go further into the world of graduate meteorology struggle severely in predicting hurricane intensity. It is an extremely complicated science.
Well this explains perfectly why people on the blog are putting so much emphasis on SSTs.

I saw yesterday somebody mentioned people are putting too much emphasis on SSTs. The reason for this is it's the simplest factor to understand. The other factors which go into determining the activity of the season like el nino/la nina, ao & nao are not easy to determine since one first has to find the model forecasts. Then one has to be able to interpret what that model forecast means for the upcoming season (how el nino/la nina, or the ao & nao will affect wind patterns, sheer values, steering patterns, SSTs, etc. something poorly understood by even the best mets), while keeping in mind that it is just a model forecast and shouldn't be given too much emphasis either.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
It could happen tomorrow!
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Two Bodies Found at Japan Nuclear Complex
Workers Continue Trying to Seal Crack at Ravaged Fukushima Dai-ichi Plant

By KEVIN DOLAK, NEAL KARLINSKY, WENDY BRUNDIGE and RYAN CREED
April 3, 2011


The Tokyo Electric Power Co. today confirmed the first tsunami-related deaths at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex: a 21-year-old and a 24-year-old who were working when the 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami hit Japan.


"It pains us to have lost these two young workers who were trying to protect the power plant amid the earthquake and tsunami," TEPCO Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata said in a statement.

The two workers may have run into a basement turbine room when the deadly wave hit the plant, according to The Associated Press.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


It is an extremely complicated science.


The complexity is what makes it worthwhile.
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Quoting CalebDancemastah:


We are over due for a hit, by the way a tornado has hit us before in the early 90's, my mom just can't remember what year, but we had damage to our porch mesh & I was outside when all this was happening.


Yeah I have only lived here since 96 but my neighbors told me about a close hit from a tornado more than once since they grew up. Apparently this area is a bigger tornado magnet than I realized!

One of these days, the big one will hit Tampa Bay, and Lord help us it ain't gonna be pretty.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
But i do have a bad feeling about this year's hurricane season.


The US's luck will run out eventually. One can only go for so long. Historically, the odds are definitely in favor of a major hurricane strike or two on the Lower 48, in particular the central Gulf Coast and Florida. Neutral years, especially ones following a previous La Nina, are typically associated with an anomalously westward Bermuda High.

Mind you, I'm not attempting to predict the mean synoptic steering pattern, as that would be both foolish and impossible. But history does provide us with an idea of what to expect.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
OH NO!!.Doc is on vacation!!.Something bad is about to happen(put hands on both sides of the face).
Nah, that only happens when it's close enough to hurricane season for formation.... lol
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I think there was some large hail and down burst damage there, but i don't think it was anything like missing roofs and a mess of snapped power lines and trees all mixed together around here. For those who mockingly say there wasn't any significant property damage done from these tornadoes, I'd love to see them go through what came through here, I think they would have wet pants instead of scoffing about it. It wasn't a major F3 or greater tornado, and it wasn't a major hurricane, but it was bad enough.


Who said there wasn't any significant damage? Someone on the blog? I thought the pictures were terrible.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's actually not scary at all. Regardless of how cold a given winter is for the southern United States, SSTs will respond to heat. Basically, it's like this every year at this time.


haha exactly, and the science of hurricane development is exceedingly more complicated than just the need of warm water. Heck why do think after all the years of back breaking school work us weather students have to become to be real meteorologists, even those who go further into the world of graduate meteorology struggle severely in predicting hurricane intensity. It is an extremely complicated science.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it sure looks like it!

I'm probably just gonna get some decent thunderstorms this time instead of a direct hit from a monster rotating super cell.

BTW, I checked the NWS to see the actual path of the tornado, it technically would have made a direct hit including my house, but the tornado happened to lift into the air just before crossing over me than came back down to cause significant damage to St Pete/Clearwater Int'l airport right behind me.


I'd like to think it was a little bit of divine intervention. I never got to see the tornado or what would have been a funnel cloud when it passed over me. However it may have been to to the fact that I had a rainfall rate of 5 inches per hour and 60 to 70 knot winds at the time. It was like a water cannon was being blasted on my windows, I couldn't see anything but white and tree debris brushing by the windows and literal rumbling and rattling of my house.

Interesting to find I could have had a disturbing encounter with a direct hit from a tornado if it hadn't had lifted. I am obsessed with weather, even more so severe weather, but I am thankful that tornado lifted while it passed over me.

It surreal seeing the damage it left nearby before crossing over and touching down again on the other side of me. It also reminds me that if the unlikely chance of a tornado has happened right here, its only a matter of time before the eye wall of a hurricane take the same path...


We are over due for a hit, by the way a tornado has hit us before in the early 90's, my mom just can't remember what year, but we had damage to our porch mesh & I was outside when all this was happening.
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But i do have a bad feeling about this year's hurricane season.
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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Gearsts...Those are some scary maps,and its only march.


It's actually not scary at all. Regardless of how cold a given winter is for the southern United States, SSTs will respond to heat. Basically, it's like this every year at this time.
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Quoting Grothar:


Know of any damage in Palm Harbor?


I think there was some large hail and down burst damage there, but i don't think it was anything like missing roofs and a mess of snapped power lines and trees all mixed together around here. For those who mockingly say there wasn't any significant property damage done from these tornadoes, I'd love to see them go through what came through here, I think they would have wet pants instead of scoffing about it. It wasn't a major F3 or greater tornado, and it wasn't a major hurricane, but it was bad enough.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Gearsts...Those are some scary maps,and its only march.
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.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting hydrus:
We are going to get whacked again here on the plateau....bbl


Yeah it sure looks like it!

I'm probably just gonna get some decent thunderstorms this time instead of a direct hit from a monster rotating super cell.

BTW, I checked the NWS to see the actual path of the tornado, it technically would have made a direct hit including my house, but the tornado happened to lift into the air just before crossing over me than came back down to cause significant damage to St Pete/Clearwater Int'l airport right behind me.


I'd like to think it was a little bit of divine intervention. I never got to see the tornado or what would have been a funnel cloud when it passed over me. However it may have been due to the fact that I had a rainfall rate of 5 inches per hour and 60 to 70 knot winds at the time. It was like a water cannon was being blasted on my windows, I couldn't see anything but white and tree debris brushing by the windows and literal rumbling and rattling of my house.

Interesting to find I could have had a disturbing encounter with a direct hit from a tornado if it hadn't had lifted. I am obsessed with weather, even more so severe weather, but I am thankful that tornado lifted while it passed over me.

It surreal seeing the damage it left nearby before crossing over and touching down again on the other side of me. It also reminds me that if the unlikely chance of a tornado has happened right here, its only a matter of time before the eye wall of a hurricane take the same path...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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