The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 AM GMT on April 03, 2011

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The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.

A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.

In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.

The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.


Figure 2.
Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.

In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.


Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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The Storms are emerging with the Cold front. Super Cells are now about to occur. Here comes the really Severe Stuff.
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Looks like they have it surrounded.

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WOW look at the explosion......OUCH
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 713 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 712 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 709 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 706 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 704 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Ugh... when will the JTWC and the CPHC release their best-track data from last year?
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The Severe notices are now flying off the notice post. WOW
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT.

* AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES WEST OF MECHANICSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
65 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MORLEY...STANWOOD...OLIN...CLARENCE...WYOMING...LO WDEN...OXFORD
JUNCTION...TORONTO...WHEATLAND...MONMOUTH...LOST NATION...
CALAMUS...NASHVILLE...GRAND MOUND...HURSTVILLE...MAQUOKETA...
WELTON...DELMAR...DEWITT...CHARLOTTE AND SPRINGBROOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SHAWNEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF HOLTON TO
5 MILES SOUTH OF TOPEKA...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...
NORTHEASTERN TOPEKA...
CIRCLEVILLE...
TECUMSEH...
HOYT...
GRANTVILLE...
MAYETTA...
HOLTON...
MERIDEN...
DENISON...
LECOMPTON...
PERRY...
PERRY LAKE...
OZAWKIE...
WILLIAMSTOWN...
VALLEY FALLS...
OSKALOOSA...
MCLOUTH...
NORTONVILLE...
WINCHESTER...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 173 AND 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH....AND SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.



LAT...LON 3905 9519 3893 9580 3948 9604 3954 9603
3959 9555 3942 9556 3942 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 270DEG 48KT 3944 9597 3898 9566
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 647 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY NEAR WHITTIER...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR
RAPIDS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PRAIRIEBURG...STONE CITY...ANAMOSA...LANGWORTHY...AMBER...
MONTICELLO...HOPKINTON...CENTER JUNCTION...ONSLOW...WORTHINGTON...
DYERSVILLE...CASCADE...MONMOUTH...CANTON AND HURSTVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 636 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PAXICO...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAPLE HILL...
WILLARD...
ROSSVILLE...
SILVER LAKE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 331 AND 348.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH....AND SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting emcf30:
Here is the next batch of severe TS warnings. It amazing how fast they fire up.

the one by Topeka, KS is just explosive!
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SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE WITH GRAPHICS!
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Won't let me modify, but what I meant was, the warmer SSTs at higher latitudes in the northern extensions of the MDR increase the chances of a developing storm going out to sea.
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Verne Carlson is live broadcasting the Manhattan, Kansas, storm on TornadoVideos.net. It's a beautiful, backlit LP supercell...
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Here is the next batch of severe TS warnings. It amazing how fast they fire up.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Julia Foxtrot Victor is partially correct - but the A/B high can change, we don't know what setup its going to take yet which is why I didn't include it in my update. What interests me though is if the MJO behaves like it has so far and translates throughout the basins or behaves like it did last year and gets stuck in the Atlantic. SST's aren't as warm as they were last year and heat seems to have returned to the other basins, so I'm pretty sure the MJO won't behave like it did last year.

Just a wait and see.

While it is true that MJO often favors the warmest of the tropical latitudes, it also true that the MJO doesn't always have a say in tropical cyclone activity; last year, the MJO was just as prevalent in July and August as it was in September, and we barely saw any activity in the two former months until the last week of August. In 2005, oceanic heat was high both in the Pacific AND Atlantic and the MJO translated smoothly throughout and that didn't stop the Atlantic from having 27 named storms. The Pacific also had an above average year.

In addition, SST's aren't as far off from last year or from 2005 as you may think. The MDR south of about 18N is nearly identical, they're slightly cooler this year further north (which aids in helping storms become fish storms), the Caribbean is a bit cooler (though that will warm up to above average, as it always does in non-El Nino warm-AMO years), and the Gulf is a LOT warmer than last year, warmer than 2005 and even a bit warmer than 2008.
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WW Graphics Legend
WW0083 RADAR Thumbnail Image Severe Thunderstorm Watch #83
Issued/Updated: Apr 03, 2011 at 2318 UTC
Expires: Apr 04, 2011 at 0500 UTC
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83 Status Message has not been issued
WW0082 RADAR Thumbnail Image Tornado Watch #82
Issued/Updated: Apr 03, 2011 at 2254 UTC
Expires: Apr 04, 2011 at 0500 UTC
Tornado Watch 82 Status Message has not been issued
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


You missed the analogy.


Thanks for drawing my attention to the BP thing last year.

At the time I was working in a monastery near Granada and they had no media coverage of what was going on! { Lame Excuse.}
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
let it begin


THE CAP is lifted allowing for lift now!
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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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let it begin
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This may be the start.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC085-149-161-197-040000-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0014.110403T2312Z-110404T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTH OF MANHATTAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. GEORGE...
WAMEGO...
LOUISVILLE...
BELVUE...
ST. MARYS...
EMMETT...
DELIA...
HAVENSVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 317 AND 321.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 9584 3921 9593 3921 9603 3918 9603
3903 9649 3907 9649 3907 9657 3921 9668
3953 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 242DEG 42KT 3913 9651
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Neo #236

TEPCO like BP? (who is about to restart deepwater operations in the Gulf).

Does the following sound familiar?

"Engineers put 8 kilograms of the polymeric water absorbent together with 60 kilograms of sawdust and three bags of shredded newspaper into pipes leading to a pit connected to the No. 2 reactor building where a 20-centimeter crack has been found to be leaking radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean, the agency said.

However, those materials injected at a point 23 meters away from the seaside pit have not been sucked into the water flow, leaving no impact on the rate of leakage, said Hidehiko Nishiyama, a spokesman for the governmental Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency."

For the record: "polymeric water absorbent" = "disposable diaper filling".

So: Pampers, sawdust, and back-issues of the Tokyo Times. That's their high-tech solution to stop the plant from irradiating the Pacific basin.

My confidence in them is soaring. No wonder they want to just cover the whole mess with a giant sheet...
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Quoting PlazaRed:


One can't help but postulate that the 'magic mix' set in the feed pipe and hence 'blocked it in error'
Paper mache is a native product of the area I am told, perhaps they could mince up a few gallons of that next?


You missed the analogy.
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Neo #236

TEPCO like BP? (who is about to restart deepwater operations in the Gulf).

Does the following sound familiar?

"Engineers put 8 kilograms of the polymeric water absorbent together with 60 kilograms of sawdust and three bags of shredded newspaper into pipes leading to a pit connected to the No. 2 reactor building where a 20-centimeter crack has been found to be leaking radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean, the agency said.

However, those materials injected at a point 23 meters away from the seaside pit have not been sucked into the water flow, leaving no impact on the rate of leakage, said Hidehiko Nishiyama, a spokesman for the governmental Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency."


One can't help but postulate that the 'magic mix' set in the feed pipe and hence 'blocked it in error'
Paper mache is a native product of the area I am told, perhaps they could mince up a few gallons of that next?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Neo #236

TEPCO like BP? (who is about to restart deepwater operations in the Gulf).

Does the following sound familiar?

"Engineers put 8 kilograms of the polymeric water absorbent together with 60 kilograms of sawdust and three bags of shredded newspaper into pipes leading to a pit connected to the No. 2 reactor building where a 20-centimeter crack has been found to be leaking radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean, the agency said.

However, those materials injected at a point 23 meters away from the seaside pit have not been sucked into the water flow, leaving no impact on the rate of leakage, said Hidehiko Nishiyama, a spokesman for the governmental Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency."
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Commenting on:- 236. Neapolitan

Whatever next?

Genetically modified spiders to spin a web of obscurity all over the place?

As a mere mortal, I must add in the haste of the moment before I consider the effects of common sense on the uninitiated 'experts' but among the things that spring to mind are high speed air movements, I think they call them Typhoons, then there is the slight matter of the accumulated heat inside the wrappings, that might just melt it or set fire to it. As it will no doubt get a trifle radioactive as things do that are draped over heavily damaged nuclear reactor building then as a byproduct of its disintegration it is certain to cause even more problems than it wont solve.

What next? Huge dollop's of ice cream?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Julia Foxtrot Victor is partially correct - but the A/B high can change, we don't know what setup its going to take yet which is why I didn't include it in my update. What interests me though is if the MJO behaves like it has so far and translates throughout the basins or behaves like it did last year and gets stuck in the Atlantic. SST's aren't as warm as they were last year and heat seems to have returned to the other basins, so I'm pretty sure the MJO won't behave like it did last year.

Just a wait and see.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Which also means - more probability of Caribbean spinners (ie, storms like Charley, Dennis, Dean, ect)

Yes. Though, Dean, Emily, Dolly, Alex scenarios are less likely after July. I don't see the Bermuda High being as strong as it was in 2007.

Katrina, Rita, Ike scenarios are more likely August through mid-September, the way the high is going to be setting up similar to 2008.
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Gov't eyes use of huge sheet to contain radioactive substances

The government has asked Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, to study the possibility of containing radioactive substances from four damaged reactors by wrapping their entire containment buildings with a huge amount of sheeting, government sources said Sunday. The proposal calls for building framed structures around the 45-meter-high containment buildings and then wrapping them with the sheeting.

If all of the four buildings were wrapped in this manner, it would cost about 80 billion yen [USD $951 million] and take up to two months, the sources said. But atomic energy experts are skeptical about the feasibility of the plan, proposed by a general construction firm, saying the step would have only limited effects in blocking the release of radioactive substances into the environment.

Osaka University professor emeritus Keiji Miyazaki said that there is the risk that such sheeting would be torn apart by heat emanating from nuclear reactors. ''What must be done speedily is rather the restoration of the reactors' cooling functions,'' said the professor of atomic energy engineering.

Ritsumeikan University professor emeritus Ikuro Anzai said if sheeting-based containment were technically possible, it would help block the release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere and the ground. But the professor, who specializes in ways to protect humans from radiation exposure, added that there is the risk that radiation levels would go up inside the sheeting, thus hampering various restoration work, including the work to spray water onto the reactors.

A source close to the government criticized its latest move, saying, ''Politicians and the TEPCO management adopted the proposal from the major construction company which does not have deep knowledge about nuclear power plants. This step is essentially lip service to give the public a sense of ease by hiding the image of the decrepit nuclear plant.''

Kyodo Article...

Ah, now TEPCO is thinking like BP or ExxonMobil. Maybe we Westerners are rubbing off on them...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
Quoting TampaSpin:


The Shear near Oklahoma is looking serious. Could be the first place that truly fires first with severe stuff.



Would be nice if what you're saying were so for W OK. We need rain in W and Central OK. The experts, SPC and NWS Norman, give these areas very little chance of rain/severe with this system. Lotsa CAPE but also lotsa cap. More chance for eastern OK-a slight risk.

Fires more the concern in W OK this eve. High winds, high temps and low humidity behind the dryline that's mixing its way in.

Here's the first SPC mesoscale discussion of the evening.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN MO...SCNTRL/SERN IA...NWRN IL
AND FAR SW WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032149Z - 032245Z

TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 22-23Z AND SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WW IS LIKELY...ROUGHLY 70 PERCENT CHANCE.


CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEEPENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN
IA AND EXTREME NCNTRL MO WITHIN A WEAKENING CAP ALONG NOSE OF STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. APPROACH OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...NOW
OVER ERN NEB...WILL LIKELY BOOST OVERALL ASCENT AND AID IN TSTM
INITIATION ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN IA BY 23Z...SIMILAR TO LATEST RAPID
REFRESH AND RUC SOLUTIONS. ONCE STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...
MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE APPROACH COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING INTO NCNTRL MO...THOUGH COMPARATIVELY STRONGER CAP RENDERS
MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THIS AREA.

..RACY.. 04/03/2011
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do you thing the Weather Channel is over hyping this next system for ratings or are they all over this current upcoming system?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Jedkins01:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 031718
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEMS TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO KEEP
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND UP OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN WELL
PROTECTED LOCATIONS. DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION FOG OVERNIGHT BUT THE
NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

THE HIGH CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS
TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. I
THINK WE WILL STILL SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...BUT CLOUDS COULD
THICKEN OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SEA BREEZE ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLIES OCCURS. DO
NOT EXPECT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MARCH STEADILY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT BUT MUCH
OF THE ENERGY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYWHERE NEAR THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO LEVY COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...IT LOOKS
LIKE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 AREA WIDE. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNSET...IF NOT A BIT SOONER.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER TO SET UP AND HOLD MID TO LATE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH THEN N FL FOR E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT COULD TURN WINDS WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM KTPA TO
KSRQ. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW SO THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COAST WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SOME 20 KNOT WINDS AND 5
OR 6 FOOT SEAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH MARGINAL SEA
CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...
EXPECT NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HUMIDITIES MAY DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 85 69 75 / 0 5 20 50
FMY 66 89 69 84 / 0 5 10 50
GIF 64 88 66 80 / 0 5 20 50
SRQ 65 87 69 77 / 0 5 20 50
BKV 58 88 65 74 / 0 5 30 50
SPG 69 85 70 74 / 0 5 20 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...NOAH






Yep i agree not that my opinion really matters. I posted the same thing yesterday that only North Florida might have problems, but South Florida ie. Tampa South will only have a small squall line with straight line winds!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting altesticstorm011:

April 2, 2011

April 2, 2008 (Analog year)

April 2, 2005


Notice how the 2011 and 2008 diffrences are pretty enormous, and as far as 2011 vs. 2005 goes, 2005 wins but not by a lot (note the differences in the Gulf). The MDR temps are comparable up to about 18N, further north 2005's SSTs are warmer, but that just means that we'll see less fish storms this year.


Which also means - more probability of Caribbean spinners (ie, storms like Charley, Dennis, Dean, ect)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The Shear near Oklahoma is looking serious. Could be the first place that truly fires first with severe stuff.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
000
FXUS62 KTBW 031718
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEMS TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO KEEP
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND UP OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN WELL
PROTECTED LOCATIONS. DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION FOG OVERNIGHT BUT THE
NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

THE HIGH CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS
TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. I
THINK WE WILL STILL SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...BUT CLOUDS COULD
THICKEN OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SEA BREEZE ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLIES OCCURS. DO
NOT EXPECT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MARCH STEADILY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT BUT MUCH
OF THE ENERGY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYWHERE NEAR THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO LEVY COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...IT LOOKS
LIKE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 AREA WIDE. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNSET...IF NOT A BIT SOONER.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER TO SET UP AND HOLD MID TO LATE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH THEN N FL FOR E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT COULD TURN WINDS WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM KTPA TO
KSRQ. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW SO THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COAST WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SOME 20 KNOT WINDS AND 5
OR 6 FOOT SEAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH MARGINAL SEA
CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...
EXPECT NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HUMIDITIES MAY DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 85 69 75 / 0 5 20 50
FMY 66 89 69 84 / 0 5 10 50
GIF 64 88 66 80 / 0 5 20 50
SRQ 65 87 69 77 / 0 5 20 50
BKV 58 88 65 74 / 0 5 30 50
SPG 69 85 70 74 / 0 5 20 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...NOAH




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So we're already in April and nobody's paying attention to my hurricane forecasts? iQué lastima!
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Warm Water Causes Extra-Cold Winters in Northeastern North America and Northeastern Asia

ScienceDaily (Mar. 30, 2011) — If you're sitting on a bench in New York City's Central Park in winter, you're probably freezing. After all, the average temperature in January is 32 degrees Fahrenheit. But if you were just across the pond in Porto, Portugal, which shares New York's latitude, you'd be much warmer -- the average temperature is a balmy 48 degrees Fahrenheit.

Throughout northern Europe, average winter temperatures are at least 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than similar latitudes on the northeastern coast of the United States and the eastern coast of Canada. The same phenomenon happens over the Pacific, where winters on the northeastern coast of Asia are colder than in the Pacific Northwest.

Researchers at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) have now found a mechanism that helps explain these chillier winters -- and the culprit is warm water off the eastern coasts of these continents.

"These warm ocean waters off the eastern coast actually make it cold in winter -- it's counterintuitive," says Tapio Schneider, the Frank J. Gilloon Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering.

Link
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Will this lead to a new generation of Weather Satellites?

Optical Transistor Advance: Physicists Rotate Beams of Light With Semiconductor


The magnetic field in the thin layer rotates the light waves. (Credit: Image courtesy of Vienna University of Technology)

ScienceDaily (Apr. 2, 2011) — Physicists have managed to control the rotation of light by means of a ultra thin semiconductor. The advance could potentially be used to create a transistor that works with light instead of electrical current.

Light waves can oscillate in different directions -- much like a string that can vibrate up and down or left and right -- depending on the direction in which it is picked. This is called the polarization of light. Physicists at the Vienna University of Technology have now, together with researchers at Würzburg University, developed a method to control and manipulate the polarization of light using ultra thin layers of semiconductor material.

For future research on light and its polarization this is an important step forward -- and this breakthrough could even open up possibilities for completely new computer technology. The experiment can be viewed as the optical version of an electronic transistor. The results of the experiment have now been published in the journal Physical Review Letters...

Link
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April 2, 2011

April 2, 2008 (Analog year)

April 2, 2005


Notice how the 2011 and 2008 diffrences are pretty enormous, and as far as 2011 vs. 2005 goes, 2005 wins but not by a lot (note the differences in the Gulf). The MDR temps are comparable up to about 18N, further north 2005's SSTs are warmer, but that just means that we'll see less fish storms this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting altesticstorm011:
So slow on here.

Last year, I don't rememember it being this slow...


it is kinda quiet

flying stealth myself till severe starts in a bit then things will pick up
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So slow on here.

Last year, I don't rememember it being this slow...
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Okay, this is kind of humorous. I go to tornadovideos.net and there are a whole bunch of chasers on the page, all clustered close. So I look through some of them and find they all must be stopping for lunch. lol Only two were moving when I looked.
hey, even the toughest chasers have to take a [bathroom] break every now and then...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
220. beell
Quoting PcolaDan:
Okay, this is kind of humorous. I go to tornadovideos.net and there are a whole bunch of chasers on the page, all clustered close. So I look through some of them and find they all must be stopping for lunch. lol Only two were moving when I looked.


Waiting for the cap to bust along the dryline or the cold front to do it-whichever comes first.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.