The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 AM GMT on April 03, 2011

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The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.

A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.

In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.

The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.


Figure 2.
Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.

In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.


Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:
I was gonna take a trip to Dominican Republic this summer, a 4 night all inclusive resort for $599 a person. It now turns out that the friggin airfare alone is nearly $1000. The hotel resort all inclusive package is cheap for 4 nights, it's the damn airfare!! and I'm not going now because of it.
I know of a good resort down by Playa del Carmen that has cheaper airfare (more expensive per night, but you would still come out ahead if taking 2 people).
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting RastaSteve:


Yeah, I travel Frequently and just found out they are raising the baggage fee to $35 per bag for the first 2nd then increases to $75 for the 3rd bag. They said this has to be done to offset the rising fuel cost.


Pretty soon it'll just be cheaper to buy new clothes and toiletries when you arrive at your destination...

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting RitaEvac:
It just keeps going, and going, and going...

WTI Crude Oil
$107.97 ▲0.03
I am hoping for a miracle with the gas prices...Almost went bankrupt in 08 because of them.....
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I was gonna take a trip to Dominican Republic this summer, a 4 night all inclusive resort for $599 a person. It now turns out that the friggin airfare alone is nearly $1000. The hotel resort all inclusive package is cheap for 4 nights, it's the damn airfare!! and I'm not going now because of it.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
Quoting MrMixon:


Nice cliff on the temperature plot there:


Looks like the temp stabilized at about 61. Still an impressive drop. Near-textbook cold front. (cliff on the temp plot, pressure rise near the front, along with a pre-frontal trough several hours before), lull in the winds as the front arrives, then a defined wind shift, with gusty winds thereafter).

Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting jeffs713:

Spreading that wealth defeats the purpose of being greedy.

Personally, I am convinced that our evolution as a species is not anywhere near its pinnacle. While we have a very developed pre-frontal cortex, we do not have full realization of our potential due to our self-destructive nature. We don't know our limits, and the only way we know there are limits is by repeatedly breaking through said limits and either destroying our surroundings, or destroying ourselves in the process.
This an entirely true, funny and befitting post...I would like to add to this wonderful chunk of truth, but my property is currently getting the stuff beat out of it by what they call " pre-frontal windgusts "..I am battening EVERYTHING down.
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Quoting RastaSteve:


Yeah, I travel Frequently and just found out they are raising the baggage fee to $35 per bag for the first 2nd then increases to $75 for the 3rd bag. They said this has to be done to offset the rising fuel cost.
How about raising the airfare? Wouldn't that make more sense, since people generally weigh quite a bit more than their bags?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
560. Jax82
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Were approaching the pendellum of where airlines and truckers might have to shutdown. Getting close to the 2008 summer levels where airlines were on the brink.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
The always prescient James Howard Kuntsler telling it like is Link
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It just keeps going, and going, and going...

WTI Crude Oil
$107.97 ▲0.03
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
Quoting jeffs713:
This is a fairly solid front for this late in the year....

At a PWS near my house, the temp went from 82.1 to 64.6 in about 20 minutes.

Link


Nice cliff on the temperature plot there:

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Here is a link to the always prescient James Howard Kunstler's blog Link
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This is a fairly solid front for this late in the year....

At a PWS near my house, the temp went from 82.1 to 64.6 in about 20 minutes, with a defined wind shift, and gusty winds (~30 kt).

Link

Of course, no rain, either. Stupid cap.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting RastaSteve:
Front about to come thru Houston. Man when is it going to rain in SE TX again.

June.












of 2013.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting hydrus:
Good post...There are a lot of powerful people that like the fossil fuel industry just the way it is. There still lots more oil for the greedy, filthy rich to make trillions of dollars on...If only they could spread some of that prosperity around to the people who really need it and would not take it for granted....

Spreading that wealth defeats the purpose of being greedy.

Personally, I am convinced that our evolution as a species is not anywhere near its pinnacle. While we have a very developed pre-frontal cortex, we do not have full realization of our potential due to our self-destructive nature. We don't know our limits, and the only way we know there are limits is by repeatedly breaking through said limits and either destroying our surroundings, or destroying ourselves in the process.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Demand for energy will only go up as the world population increases. Whichever side of the debate you are on with GW, the near & mid term impact of being too reliant on fossil fuels is higher energy prices. It is my opinion that the best policy is to continue to subsidize green technology for the next ten years so that there is a viable alternative to using fossil fuels.

If there is no viable alternative to using fossil fuels then you will pay dearly either at the pump or on your electric bill.
Good post...There are a lot of powerful people that like the fossil fuel industry just the way it is. There still lots more oil for the greedy, filthy rich to make trillions of dollars on...If only they could spread some of that prosperity around to the people who really need it and would not take it for granted....
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Demand for energy will only go up as the world population increases. Whichever side of the debate you are on with GW, the near & mid term impact of being too reliant on fossil fuels is higher energy prices. It is my opinion that the best policy is to continue to subsidize green technology for the next ten years so that there is a viable alternative to using fossil fuels.

If there is no viable alternative to using fossil fuels then you will pay dearly either at the pump or on your electric bill.
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Quoting beell:


Put me down for a gravity wave, fwiw. Would have to dig a little deeper to see if it could be traced back to the collapse of an overshooting t-storm over KS? OK? Seemed to juice up the t-storm over NE TX as it passed.

A "bump" in the lift/forcing.

Good eye, good catch!
Hi Beell...So far a massive thunderstorm collapse seems to be the most likely cause..I am still checking it out..But I am also under the gun for some severe weather here..I am in Middle Tennessee...I am truly tired of it..............................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

THE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CREATE LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE AND A HALF AND TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO THREE INCHES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY...EVEN BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM...FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
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Quoting beell:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...

VALID 041525Z - 041730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF
WATCH 89...FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING BOW STRUCTURES ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER SRN AR...WITH CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
WRN TN. THE TN ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS
LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION.
VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM
SECTOR ARE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SRN AR/NRN LA ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LARGELY LINEAR SUGGESTING
DAMAGING WINDS BUT MAY EXHIBIT AREAS OF ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. EXISTING CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND ANY FURTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAY HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE AT PRODUCING TORNADOES BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

FARTHER N WRN/CNTRL KY...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DUE TO
ADVECTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING EFFECTIVE PARCEL LAYER/SRH OVER WRN TN/KY
AS MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SPREAD NWD. A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO
CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.

..JEWELL.. 04/04/2011


GOING TO BE A LOVELY DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI!
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Quoting jeffs713:
Just a thought on here.. Am I the only one that would NOT be surprised if strong proponents of both sides of the GW/CC debate started using pitchforks when finding a person that disagrees with them?

The feelings behind the debate have gotten so vehement, strong, and based so much on emotion that they have reached an almost religious fervor.

Maybe we should weigh people against a feather? Or burn them at the stake? I got it! Lets lock them away in a dungeon, with occasional torture! That would be just like the great success that in the Spanish Inquisition was!
Spot on. Absurd, blind religious-like faith rules the devoutly faithful on that topic for those in the extreme in either direction.

One spouts "anti-science" drivel and can only try to discredit those that conduct good work that doesn't support. The other, sometimes, can only spout "conspiracy" drivel.

Challenge either and the reaction really is a great analog of religious extremism.
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The SOI still refuses to drop off its peak that it reached in the fall of 2010.

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542. JRRP
Quoting AussieStorm:
WOW look at the size and strength of the Anti-Cyclone almost right above TD02/95W.


very nice!
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Have a nice day.
:)

Ps. Would have been nice if you'd quoted my whole post not just the pieces you wished to pull out of it.


No offense or editorial dishonesty was meant... I was just quoting the two statements that I wanted to respond to. Your full post is still there (#512) for those who want context.

You'll have to pardon me if I allowed your "cowards" accusation to pull my conversation off topic.

Back to weather:

It's sunny and cool in Colorado's Front Range today. There's a dusting of snow from Louisville (down on the plains) to Nederland (up in the foothills), but there wasn't enough snow in the mountains west of Fort Collins to put out the 4500 acre Crystal Fire.

Our fire season has started early and in earnest this year... I'm still hoping for a decent April or May snow shower in the mountains to knock down the fire danger, but I'm not holding my breath. We usually get at least one big snow (>10") in the spring, but so far we've had to settle for an inch or two at a time. Anyone in California have some extra moisture they want to send our way?

Edit: I should point out that the mountains west of the continental divide have plenty of snow. Current drought conditions in Colorado are restricted to the Eastern Slope and plains since we have not gotten our normal supply of "upslope" storms. The Denver area gets most of it's big snows from these upslope systems. The best conditions for heavy snow happens when a low pressure system tracks through the southern part of the state. The counter-clockwise flow brings winds into our area from the east, which "squeezes" the snow out as the airmass moves upslope along the Front Range mountains. Most of the systems this spring have either refused to "close off" or have been tracking too far north, giving us light to little precipitation.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Just a thought on here.. Am I the only one that would NOT be surprised if strong proponents of both sides of the GW/CC debate started using pitchforks when finding a person that disagrees with them?

The feelings behind the debate have gotten so vehement, strong, and based so much on emotion that they have reached an almost religious fervor.

Maybe we should weigh people against a feather? Or burn them at the stake? I got it! Lets lock them away in a dungeon, with occasional torture! That would be just like the great success that in the Spanish Inquisition was!
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


I have quit reading your posts. A dash of sarcasm thrown into the soup can make things interesting. A steady diet of it makes for bitter fare.

Time and place for everything and alol that...
I encourage you to open your own blog if your wish is to continue with the Japan news and political stuff.

You may not see your comments as political, but they come across as intense statements intended to scare off any ghost of opposition.

Your behind-the-scenes supporters are cowards.

Just for the record, I'd rather see green energy development than nuclear. I think most people would.

And I strongly encourage you to simply put me on ignore if you find what I write "bitter fare", rather than try to dictate the course of the forum. That's why that feature was developed, of course... ;-)

(P.S.--I do have my own blogs. I just prefer not to spam Dr. Masters' excellent blog with links to my own. I'm sure most--including Dr. Masters himself--appreciate my restraint.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13271
Quoting atmoaggie:
WHAT!?! You think an industry, any industry, is capable of doing something useful?
(Yes, this is sarcasm, but points out how unhelpful an all-industry-is-terrible-and-only-government-and-p oliticians-should-be-trusted-with-important-things -like-energy outlook really is.)

Very true.

If it was up to politicians, we would still be educating our children in segregated schools, and probably still singing the praises of 8-tracks and cassettes.

Industry, as a general rule, is NOT bad.
Greed, on the other hand, is bad.

The issue is that Industry and greed are like the north and south poles of the same magnet.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Speak only if it improves upon the silence.

Mohandas Gandhi
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
Quoting jeffs713:

I agree in part with this. I don't agree with Nea removing all of his posts about the Japanese nuclear crisis - he does convey some useful information, if you can filter out the sarcasm and cynicism. (and even some of that is witty at times).

The part I do agree with is seeing more green development. Nuclear power is good and well, IF used properly and safely. Properly isn't a huge issue in the states, but safely.. well.. uh... safe = expensive. And you still have to deal with waste that NOBODY wants anywhere near them.

I'd love to see green power with very little emissions. I don't think the technology is there to make it economical to start replacing fossil fuel and nuclear plants just yet. Give the green energy industry another 5-7 years, I think it will be close to viable. (as an example, 5 years ago, solar power was prohibitively expensive, and rather inefficient. Now, you can buy solar chargers for your cell phone, and it is becoming much more efficient with each year, and home use is becoming ever-more realistic)
WHAT!?! You think an industry, any industry, is capable of doing something useful?
(Yes, this is sarcasm, but points out how unhelpful an all-industry-is-terrible-and-only-government-and-p oliticians-should-be-trusted-with-important-things -like-energy outlook really is.)
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Quoting MrMixon:


The ignore button works wonders if Nea isn't adding to the blog for you (I find his posts informative and generally spot on, but that's just one man's opinion).



What the heck does that mean? Are you referring to the people who email him to show support? I suspect they're just emailing him to avoid clogging this blog with off-topic posts, not because they're scared of showing support publicly. It's not like Nea is some kind of revolutionary (though, I know being smart and well-informed is borderline revolutionary in some anti-science circles...)
I wouldn't say its revolutionary... more like heretical.

And FWIW, I have no qualms about supporting anyone here on the blog, or calling them out as I see fit. The past week should have shown everyone here where I stand on that front. ;)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting MrMixon:


The ignore button works wonders if Nea isn't adding to the blog for you (I find his posts informative and generally spot on, but that's just one man's opinion).



What the heck does that mean? Are you referring to the people who email him to show support? I suspect they're just emailing him to avoid clogging this blog with off-topic posts, not because they're scared of showing support publicly. It's not like Nea is some kind of revolutionary (though, I know being smart and well-informed is borderline revolutionary in some anti-science circles...)


Have a nice day.
:)

Ps. Would have been nice if you'd quoted my whole post not just the pieces you wished to pull out of it.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:


I have quit reading your posts. A dash of sarcasm thrown into the soup can make things interesting. A steady diet of it makes for bitter fare.

Time and place for everything and alol that...
I encourage you to open your own blog if your wish is to continue with the Japan news and political stuff.

You may not see your comments as political, but they come across as intense statements intended to scare off any ghost of opposition.

Your behind-the-scenes supporters are cowards.

Just for the record, I'd rather see green energy development than nuclear. I think most people would.
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Quoting hydrus:
My best guess is gravity waves...When thunderstorms collapse rapidly, it has the same effect on the atmosphere as dropping a big rock in a pond of water....You may have already known that..I mention it in passing....We are about to be hit yet again by another round of severe weather...


Yeah, I've watched plenty of outflow bands on radar, but this one, if it is an outflow band, is happening on a massive scale.

I've got family just east of you near Lexington... it's a good day to keep one eye to the sky (or the radar) if you're in the Mississippi or Ohio Valley.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting RastaSteve:


Very cool SST would over near the Asia coast. Looks similar to what we had near the US last year at this time. Those cooler temps could be good news for Asia while the Gulf Coast could be in serious trouble with GOM temps the warmest ever for this time of year.

Last year was record SST in the ATL and GOM. yet the A-B high wasn't west enough for any Hurricanes to be pushed towards CONUS. I hope this year is the same, but my thinking is, it's rare to have 2 seasons in a row that have all the ingredients for Cat 3,4 and 5 Hurricanes and no CONUS landfalls
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Once upon a time, most of the purple and violet areas on this map

and most of the red and orange areas on this map

to the Gulf of Mexico from Houston,Texas on the west to Mobile,Alabama on the east were part of the US MalariaZone. Which is why the federal MosquitoAbatementAgency (now known as the Center for Disease Control) was created. Between the CDC and the creation of the dike and levee systems by the ArmyCorp of Engineers and the farmers (and their politicians) interested in transforming sometimes swamps (aka flood plains) and draining swamps to produce more dependable (though less fertile) cropland, malaria was so greatly reduced that outbreaks of new malaria cases became major news rather than "life as usual".
All long before DDT or more recent insecticides came into being.

As for why the Phillipines would mention GlobalWarming... Mosquito species are temperature sensitive, and the species which carry malaria (and I think malaria itself) and other tropical diseases prefer warmer climes than many of the more benign mosquito species. Avoiding mosquitoes is why in many areas of the world in or near the tropics (especially noticeable in CentralAmerica and the Pacific side of SouthAmerica), major cities are located inconveniently far away from the coast, up on higher foothill&mountain plateaus.

If governments in tropical nations are seeing an increase in malaria and similar tropical diseases in higher altitude regions that were formerly relatively malaria/etc free (and hence have had less emphasis placed on protective measures against malaria/etc), then there is a good chance that they are also seeing higher temperatures at those elevations.

And temperature increases creeping ever upward on the elevated regions is a ClimateChange prediction of the AnthropogenicGlobalWarming scenario.
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Quoting beell:


Put me down for a gravity wave, fwiw. Would have to dig a little deeper to see if it could be traced back to the collapse of an overshooting t-storm over KS? OK? Seemed to juice up the t-storm over NE TX as it passed.

A "bump" in the lift/forcing.

Good eye, good catch!


A single storm ran over the top of Abilene late last eve toward Red River. Maybe too long ago for effect.
Hope someone figures it out.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I never said I had any better answers. But then again, I'm not licensed to run a nuclear reactor. If I were, I can pretty much assure you that my safety plans would have included placing backup generators actually above the water, just as my emergency plans for plugging holes in the reactor caused by a major earthquake would have called for something more sophisticated than diapers, sawdust, and day-old newspapers. (In much the same way, BP's solution for stopping a massive oil spill a mile beneath the waves should have probably called for something more than crushed tennis balls and athletic shoes.) That's all. Now, I agree that not every little contingency can possibly be foreseen and thus prepared for. But you'd have to admit that some things seem like pretty much a no-brainer; it's not as though an undersea oil pipe breaking or an earthquake-induced tsunami is an unprecedented event.


Not to speak for you or anything, but I can see what you mean if others can't- the solution to the whole mess is proper planning for any continigency you can dream up BEFORE disaster hits. There will always be human error, and freak storms and once-a-century occurances, but... Japan has lots of earthquakes, and has since pre-history. Japan also has had more than its share of tsunamis, and they are on the historical record. The risk of earthquakes and tsunamis was very well known when the reactors were built. Unfortunately, yet again, greed won out and Japan and the rest of the planet will have to pay the price.

So the proposal should be: plan ahead for likely problems, and you will not have to deal with the disaster in the first place. Too little, too late now.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


I have quit reading your posts.


The ignore button works wonders if Nea isn't adding to the blog for you (I find his posts informative and generally spot on, but that's just one man's opinion).

Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Your behind-the-scenes supporters are cowards.


What the heck does that mean? Are you referring to the people who email him to show support? I suspect they're just emailing him to avoid clogging this blog with off-topic posts, not because they're scared of showing support publicly. It's not like Nea is some kind of revolutionary (though, I know being smart and well-informed is borderline revolutionary in some anti-science circles...)
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting 1900hurricane:
What do you know, the storm line reforms after they pass through my area...


See what happens when you say something?

And its dying again anyway.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting AussieStorm:
WOW look at the size and strength of the Anti-Cyclone almost right above TD02/95W.


Jeebus. That thing will have NO problems with outflow if it sticks with at anti-cyclone. Wow.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
What do you know, the storm line reforms after they pass through my area...

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Quoting RastaSteve:
Unusually cold SST by Asia for this time of year anybody know what's causing this? While the Gulf Of Mexico has 80 degree SST starting to take over fast with much above normal SST. This could really focus early season developement becuase if you think the Gulf is warm now wait a month and we should be talking 85 SST's covering a good bit of the Gulf.

They have had a rather strong winter that pushed a lot further south than normal. I was in Manila in January and almost needed a jumper to keep me warm. Also Southern Philippines has had a very high above normqal amount of rainfall, which stopped me from going to Boracay, the Island resort known the world over.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


I have quit reading your posts. A dash of sarcasm thrown into the soup can make things interesting. A steady diet of it makes for bitter fare.

Time and place for everything and alol that...
I encourage you to open your own blog if your wish is to continue with the Japan news and political stuff.

You may not see your comments as political, but they come across as intense statements intended to scare off any ghost of opposition.

Your behind-the-scenes supporters are cowards.

Just for the record, I'd rather see green energy development than nuclear. I think most people would.

I agree in part with this. I don't agree with Nea removing all of his posts about the Japanese nuclear crisis - he does convey some useful information, if you can filter out the sarcasm and cynicism. (and even some of that is witty at times).

The part I do agree with is seeing more green development. Nuclear power is good and well, IF used properly and safely. Properly isn't a huge issue in the states, but safely.. well.. uh... safe = expensive. And you still have to deal with waste that NOBODY wants anywhere near them.

I'd love to see green power with very little emissions. I don't think the technology is there to make it economical to start replacing fossil fuel and nuclear plants just yet. Give the green energy industry another 5-7 years, I think it will be close to viable. (as an example, 5 years ago, solar power was prohibitively expensive, and rather inefficient. Now, you can buy solar chargers for your cell phone, and it is becoming much more efficient with each year, and home use is becoming ever-more realistic)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Norman Issues,SPC follows

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.