The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 AM GMT on April 03, 2011

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The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.

A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.

In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.

The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.


Figure 2.
Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.

In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.


Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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769. Skyepony (Mod)
More than 80 families in Kanungu district are homeless after a recent hailstorm blew the rooftops off their houses, destroyed plantations and injured animals. The most hit areas are in the newly-created sub-county of Nyanga and Bihomborwa ward in Kihiihi town council, where the rain forced people to flee. Kihiihi sub-county chairperson Nelson Natukunda said the rain, which lasted more than five hours, left Kinyangwe Church of Uganda in Bihomborwa ward and the entire residential house of the lay leader, Bernard Nkirirehi, roofless. The rooftop was thrown about 20 metres away, said Rev. Edward Kabareebe, a witness. He said another building under construction was also brought down by the rain. "I thought the world was coming to an end, but kept on praying," Kabareebe said. Nkirirehi and his family of eight have since rented a house in a nearby trading centre.
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Those are Cumulus Clouds from Daytime Heating over the Yucatan,,streaming N in the southerly Flow.





There are NO Yucatan Mountains fer sure

Geology

The peninsula is the exposed portion of the larger Yucatan Platform, all of which is composed of carbonate and soluble rocks, being mostly limestone although dolomite and evaporites are also present at various depths. The whole of the Yucatan peninsula is an unconfined flat lying karst landscape. Sinkholes, locally called cenotes are widespread in the northern lowlands.


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767. Skyepony (Mod)
A fast-moving grass fire destroyed five homes and several barns, forced the evacuation of a well-known race track and nearby neighborhoods, and knocked out the power to about 1,000 homes and businesses, officials said Sunday. New Mexico Forestry Division spokesman Dan Ware confirmed that the buildings were damaged by the wind-driven blaze, which had not been contained. He said it has scorched more than 2,000 acres, or over 3 square miles, on private, state and federal land in southern New Mexico. Ware said he did not know the locations of the homes but that the barns were east of the Ruidoso Downs Racetrack and Casino, which is home to the All-American Futurity. The race is one of the richest in quarter horse racing; last year's winner earned $1 million. "As far as I know, there wasn't any damage to the track," Ware told The Associated Press. "Some barns in the area might have been damaged." About 125 to 150 customers and staff evacuated from the casino portion, Ruidoso Downs security official Charlie Falke said. The racetrack was closed at the time. "We didn't see any flames; we just saw smoke," he said, adding that neither the track nor the casino was damaged that he expected the casino to reopen Monday. Among those also under evacuation orders were the Ruidoso Gardens, Spaghetti Flats, River Ranch and Homestead Acres neighborhoods.

The blaze was near the Alto power substation, which serves about 1,000 homes and businesses, said Clint Gardner, a member services manager for Otero County Electric. Gardner said the extent of damage to the power lines was not immediately known. The blaze began Sunday afternoon in Gavilan Canyon in Ruidoso. The cause also was not immediately known. In the central part of the state, firefighters made progress on another wind-driven wildfire that prompted the evacuation of 50 people from the New Mexico Boys Ranch for underprivileged children, Ware said. That fire grew to about 2,000 acres and was believed to be human caused, he said. Conditions in the area, which is more than 60 miles south of Albuquerque, were "blowing, smoky, dusty, very, very dry," said Vicky Fox, a fire information officer. No structures have burned, Fox said. A third fire that had blackened about 2,000 acres in the Uvas Valley was nearing containment, Ware said.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Winds must be blowing good for waves on Lake Livingston (Well norht of Houston)


I think the NWS put up a Small Craft Advisory and Red Flag warning for today.
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Winds must be blowing good for waves on Lake Livingston (Well norht of Houston)


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Pre Squall Line Cells Popping in the Southerly fetch in Lake P



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762. Skyepony (Mod)
Pat~ CIMSS is either behind or arguing with NAVY on what to call the next one... Up to 97W according to Navy & FNMOC.
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Quoting jeffs713:


Works fine for me...

Yah, the auto-refresh did that, then a forced one did the same. Going back to the SPC front page and back in fixed it.

Still weird.
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Today's Texas Extremes

State Highs:

McAllen 102°F
Edinburg 102°F
Harlingen 99°F
Falfurrias 98°F
Weslaco 98°F


State Lows:

Dalhart 32°F
Dumas 32°F
Perryton 33°F
Amarillo 33°F
Pampa 33°F

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting RitaEvac:
First it was 50, then upper 40s, and now lower 40s

I don't think they expected a drop from 82 to 57 because of the front (at least in Tomball).

They absolutely nailed the timing, though.
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First it was 50, then upper 40s, and now lower 40s
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Quoting RitaEvac:
It was in the 80s today and here is your breaking news forecast for tonight...


Tonight
Mostly clear. Much colder. Lows in the lower 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Welcome to Houston! Where if you don't like the weather, wait around a few - it will change within the next 15 minutes!

Edit- Only applies between Mid-October and Mid-April. Between May 1 and October 1, you get the 95/75/95/20 forecast... 95 degrees for a high, 75 for a low, 95% humidity, 20% chance of rain. EVERY. SINGLE. DAY.
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Currently Active Tropical Cyclones
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It was in the 80s today and here is your breaking news forecast for tonight...


Tonight
Mostly clear. Much colder. Lows in the lower 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
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754. Skyepony (Mod)
Did NAVY skip 96W or what?
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752. Skyepony (Mod)
Plume model for today & tomorrow..


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609
WFUS54 KJAN 042107
TORJAN
MSC021-149-042200-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0034.110404T2107Z-110404T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VICKSBURG...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 407 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
PORT GIBSON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
YOKENA...LE TOURNEAU...ROCKY SPRINGS AND REGANTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3221 9116 3225 9104 3222 9098 3229 9098
3230 9093 3238 9088 3235 9096 3236 9096
3243 9081 3229 9071 3200 9071 3190 9106
3203 9107 3209 9114 3206 9107 3217 9100
3219 9105 3214 9105 3214 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 234DEG 54KT 3206 9113



OLB


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Quoting atmoaggie:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /climo/reports/today.html on this server.

(atmo: WTH?)


Works fine for me...

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Squall line blowing up now
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The Line taking full advantage of daytime MAX heating and a Good Cape Environment along the Boundary from Lake Charles to Kentucky,

SPC Mesoscale Analysis
Auto-refresh is set to every minute
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991
WFUS53 KJKL 042058
TORJKL
KYC051-121-125-199-203-042145-
/O.NEW.KJKL.TO.W.0009.110404T2058Z-110404T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUNCH...OR 10 MILES WEST OF LONDON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LONDON...MAPLESVILLE...PITTSBURG AND SUBLIMITY CITY AROUND 505 PM
EDT.
DEER LICK...PORTERSBURG...MARYDELL AND LANGNAU AROUND 510 PM EDT.
HOOKER...URBAN...BYRON AND PIGEONROOST AROUND 515 PM EDT.
MANCHESTER...LITTLETON AND HORSE CREEK JUNCTION AROUND 520 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE ADD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.



LAT...LON 3698 8432 3721 8434 3727 8355 3724 8351
3723 8353 3722 8351 3717 8355 3713 8355
3711 8354 3709 8355 3708 8354 3705 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 266DEG 57KT 3713 8420



GREIF


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That would be cell F-2...heading towards Villplatte

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503
WFUS54 KLCH 042056
TORLCH
LAC039-042130-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0007.110404T2056Z-110404T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
REDDELL...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VILLE PLATTE BY 410 PM CDT...
CHICOT STATE PARK BY 415 PM CDT...
INDIAN LAKE BY 420 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.



PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3081 9221 3058 9220 3055 9258 3073 9258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 256DEG 43KT 3066 9251



27
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NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI



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Is that smoke/haze down in the Bay of Campeche and in the NW gulf ahead of the front? notice that milky hazy shade out there...


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
849
WUUS54 KJAN 042054
SVRJAN
LAC065-MSC055-149-042145-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0136.110404T2054Z-110404T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MADISON PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD...VICKSBURG...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF REDWOOD TO 11
MILES NORTHWEST OF VICKSBURG TO 19 MILES WEST OF VICKSBURG MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OAK
RIDGE...FLOWERS...YOUNGTON AND BOVINA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3245 9119 3257 9065 3255 9064 3255 9059
3253 9058 3250 9058 3248 9060 3245 9059
3238 9063 3236 9063 3235 9070 3226 9071
3220 9075 3225 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 277DEG 28KT 3253 9094 3243 9098
3238 9114



JA
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Y2 and F2 seem to be Severe Right movers

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /climo/reports/today.html on this server.

(atmo: WTH?)
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Hate to see how things are by then
Amen on that. Landscaping companies are going to be in a world of hurt this summer, unless they also build pools.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5886
484
WUUS54 KLCH 042051
SVRLCH
LAC003-039-042130-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0038.110404T2051Z-110404T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...VILLE PLATTE...TURKEY CREEK...MAMOU...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...13 MILES WEST OF MAMOU...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PINE PRAIRIE...REDDELL AND MAMOU BY 400 PM CDT...
BAYOU CHICOT...VILLE PLATTE AND TURKEY CREEK BY 405 PM CDT...
CHICOT STATE PARK BY 410 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.



PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3093 9227 3093 9226 3060 9220 3051 9262
3089 9259 3090 9253 3089 9250 3091 9248
3094 9227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 247DEG 56KT 3068 9258



27
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Is that smoke/haze down in the Bay of Campeche and in the NW gulf ahead of the front? notice that milky hazy shade out there...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
919
WUUS54 KOHX 042050
SVROHX
TNC031-061-177-042115-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0066.110404T2050Z-110404T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
350 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN COFFEE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
GRUNDY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 348 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR
MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRUETLI-LAAGER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL TENNESSEE.



LAT...LON 3535 8604 3535 8618 3542 8622 3560 8582
3559 8556 3555 8555 3554 8561 3550 8553
3545 8553 3544 8550 3537 8549 3532 8556
3531 8566 3528 8570 3528 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 253DEG 52KT 3541 8599


STEIGERWALDT


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Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. We should be used to dry weather by now, at least.

it could be worse... this could be June or July, when the drying effect is MUCH worse due to evaporation. At least now, it will be pleasant outside.


As a note, here is the forecast discussion from the Houston NWS:

"Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
304 PM CDT Monday Apr 4 2011


Discussion...
the cold front has moved off the coast. The cap held strong across most
of southeast Texas resulting in only a few strong storms...and no one
got anywhere close to the amount of rain needed to put any significant
Dent in the area's drought. North to northwest winds remain gusty across
much of southeast Texas...generally running 15 to 25 miles per hour with occasional
gusts exceeding 35 miles per hour. The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7
PM. Surface high pressure quickly builds into the area overnight resulting
in weakening winds (falling under 5 miles per hour all inland locations) and good
radiational cooling conditions under clear skies. Expect to see lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland...lower to middle 50s coast. As quickly
as the surface high moves into the area...it moves off to the east resulting
in a return of onshore winds tomorrow afternoon. As a result...temperatures
will warm into the 70s. With the onshore flow in place...Tuesday night's
low temperatures will be some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than tonight's
readings. The onshore flow then strengthens on Wednesday which begins
the trend of increasing temperatures and humidity. This flow then persists
through the end of the week and on through the weekend with most inland
temperatures eventually struggling to fall below 70 degrees at night
and warming into the lower to middle 80s in the afternoons. With no significant
features evident in the southwest flow aloft...there is no sign of much
needed rainfall until maybe the end of the weekend or the start of next
week. 42
"

My thoughts - If you look at WV loops over the Pacific, there is a cutoff low west of Baja, that when combined with the high pressure generally over Mexico, is keeping all of the systems shunted north, and preventing any impulses from tapping the ample moisture over the Houston area. Also, when you factor in the high pressure over Mexico, and the systems going to our north, it keeps mid-level winds out of the SW, which is a situation that generally leads to capping.

WHEE!!
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5886
Quoting Chicklit:
That is quite the front! Just picked a spot in the line: Nashville.
TORNADO WARNING

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
219 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKEWOOD...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF LP
FIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALLATIN...LEBANON...HARTSVILLE...GREEN HILL...HENDERSONVILLE...
MOUNT JULIET...BELINDA CITY AND WATERTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 8613 3643 8606 3637 8605 3634 8610
3629 8613 3597 8601 3598 8608 3597 8610
3602 8637 3604 8638 3610 8650 3605 8656
3608 8672 3630 8679 3646 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 239DEG 56KT 3623 8661

$$

BOYD

I don't get how a tornado can survive in those mountains. Anybody know? Will it just slam into one and stop?



In June 1998 a tornado passed .25 miles from my house, in the WV hills at 2000' elevation. It was part of an outbreak that caused an F4 that hit nearby Meyersdale, PA and caused extensive damage, and then traveled through the Garrett Co. MD mountains at 2800'. Those tornadoes skimmed across the ridge tops and skipped the valleys, leaving trails through the trees that looked like a giant lawn mower was cutting huge paths for power lines. Nothing like that since, so it's not common. Bur tornadoes can and do cause damage to mountain communties.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. We should be used to dry weather by now, at least.

it could be worse... this could be June or July, when the drying effect is MUCH worse due to evaporation. At least now, it will be pleasant outside.


Hate to see how things are by then
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
661
WFUS54 KMRX 042048
TORMRX
TNC129-151-042130-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0010.110404T2048Z-110404T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
448 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ONEIDA...HUNTSVILLE...RUGBY...ELGIN...BIG SOUTH FORK NATIONAL
REFUGE...NORMA...WINFIELD AND KETCHEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.



LAT...LON 3660 8426 3652 8426 3650 8428 3651 8433
3646 8435 3642 8435 3638 8431 3639 8432
3630 8433 3630 8480 3634 8478 3640 8467
3660 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 247DEG 42KT 3639 8478



MJB


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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lynndale Sub-Division, Port Allen, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
79.9 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 12.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 28.0 mph
Pressure: 29.72 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 84 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 9.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 3000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Time to start jacking up the water bill and usuage after this non event front passed in like a pansy




I agree, Rita. We didn't need any frog stranglers but, at least have them gasp for air a little.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
724. Jax82
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Quoting RitaEvac:
Time to start jacking up the water bill and usuage after this non event front passed in like a pansy

Yep. We should be used to dry weather by now, at least.

it could be worse... this could be June or July, when the drying effect is MUCH worse due to evaporation. At least now, it will be pleasant outside.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5886
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
448
WUUS53 KJKL 042041
SVRJKL
KYC065-109-129-189-199-203-042130-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0033.110404T2041Z-110404T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ESTILL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
WESTERN OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 439 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRODHEAD...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON...AND MOVING EAST
AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
JOHNETTA...COOKSBURG...BUMMER AND ORLANDO AROUND 450 PM EDT.
LOAM...ROBINET...DANGO AND EGLON AROUND 455 PM EDT.
HURLEY...SHOP BRANCH...MCKEE AND DABOLT AROUND 500 PM EDT.
GRAY HAWK...BRADSHAW AND ATKINSTOWN AROUND 505 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE NEW
ZION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASSIONALY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.



LAT...LON 3748 8447 3748 8438 3754 8436 3752 8430
3753 8421 3757 8417 3757 8412 3764 8414
3765 8413 3765 8368 3733 8370 3735 8379
3730 8389 3730 8411 3733 8412 3730 8416
3730 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 268DEG 53KT 3740 8438
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN



GREIF


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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