The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 AM GMT on April 03, 2011

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The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.

A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.

In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.

The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.


Figure 2.
Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.

In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.


Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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1069. aquak9
rushed back outside in boxers to get dog

!!
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1068. Jax82
Woke up at 7:15, let the dog out, came back in, looked at the radar, saw the line of t-storms was basically across the intercoastal, rushed back outside in boxers to get dog, folded up umbrellas, came back inside, stare out window, wind and rain starts! Just in time this morning. The clouds were moving at what seemed like light speed, but all in all a good thundershower. There was some lightning and some good gusts but nothing to write home to mama about ;) Steady rain for now and what looks like another hour of it then it clears out.
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1067. emcf30

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC069-095-097-117-051315-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0018.110405T1215Z-110405T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 915 AM EDT.
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Quoting aquak9:


damn he's good


I was right! It's raining. It'll probably clear up eventually. I just have a 6th sense about these things. I must have some Indian in me.

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1064. IKE

Quoting aquak9:


damn he's good
A met he is!

................................................. ....................


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1063. aquak9
Quoting BobinTampa:
Weather update from Tampa. It just got pretty dark outside. Think it might rain.



damn he's good
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1062. emcf30
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Weather update from Tampa. It just got pretty dark outside. Think it might rain.

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1060. IKE
Parts of Defuniak Springs,FL. still without power...per my mom.

Sunshine and 47.8 outside my window.
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1057. aquak9
Quoting aquak9:
chief TEPCO official quoted as saying:

"I just want my rice back"


man...rough audience this morning.

I thought it was pretty funny.
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Quoting iceagecoming:


Topic of Blog, Record quiet cyclone season for 2010

Not Global whatever and climate nothing out of the norm.

Oh, I'm sorry; did my illiteracy somehow cause me to misread the section in Dr. Masters' post titled Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season? I thought he was talking about how GW is expected to cause both fewer overall tropical storms and more intense ones, and how it was interesting that, in light of that modelling, 2010 saw so few storms; my apologies if I somehow got that wrong.

:-\
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This seems to be a recurring pattern. Drawing from the loop current with a derecho leading edge?
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Alright just as I thought, the line has just intensified to my west now too, plus I have a warning for 70 mph wind gusts anyway! I also just started here much louder and more frequent thunder, plus some brighter reds just popped to my west.
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Quoting RastaSteve:


Yeah, but it looks as if you will get in a training situation so a good 2" to 3" seems a good bet for you.


The line may also ramp up again right as it moves onshore like it did further north. I think the line may be encountering a mix oh higher dewpoints, heat, and mayybe some coastal convergence...

I'm on the east side of Pinellas so it may pick up some more steam again right before hitting me like it did further north.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC057-101-103-051230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0030.110405T1147Z-110405T1230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
747 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 830 AM EDT

* AT 745 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TARPON SPRINGS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TARPON SPRINGS.
PALM HARBOR.
OLDSMAR.
TOWN `N` COUNTRY.
CARROLLWOOD.
TEMPLE TERRACE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 5 AND 6.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 47 AND 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8283 2809 8281 2804 8280 2807 8279
2809 8280 2812 8279 2817 8281 2818 8278
2817 8233 2797 8237 2797 8284 2808 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1147Z 278DEG 39KT 2813 8276

$$

JOHNSON




Alright I'm in the next warning no anyway, go figure! lol
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1046. emcf30


Nasty looking storm starting to come into N Orl metro area
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1045. RTLSNK
Heads Up - TVS showing on storm C1 coming inbound:
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Quoting RastaSteve:
This almost looks like the same type line that caused all of this damage here last Wednesday. Looks like a bowing of the Storms coming across Brooksville to Orlando.


The line looks very strong from Pasco County northward, although it was strong earlier, the part of the line approaching Tampa Bay for whatever reason has lost a lot of power rather than intensifying like the rest of the line, I wonder why just that part has been collapsing only?

I'm waiting to see if the weaker part of the line headed toward me intensifies again before hitting the coast like it did further north.
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1040. IKE

Quoting cat5hurricane:

.88 inches is a fair amount. Not too shabby. On the outskirts, is Defuniak Springs, FL primarily wooded terrain IKE?
Yes.

I went for a drive about 1 am....I live about 4 miles north of town and there were areas on highway 331 where limbs were on the road. Not large limbs, but you had to slow down and go around them a time or 2.

On highway 83...which goes north into southern Alabama from Defuniak Springs, the winds damaged utility lines or maybe a pole? Knocking out the electricity.
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1038. emcf30
595
WUUS52 KMLB 051145
SVRMLB
FLC069-127-051245-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0017.110405T1145Z-110405T1245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
745 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT.

* AT 741 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 39 MILES NORTH OF ORMOND BY THE SEA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF THE
VILLAGES...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES NORTH OF
ANDALUSIA TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF LYNNE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
FRUITLAND PARK...LEESBURG...LAKE GRIFFIN...EMERALDA...LISBON...LAKE
GEORGE...MID FLORIDA LAKES...TAVARES...EUSTIS...MOUNT DORA...
PIERSON...PAISLEY...BARBERVILLE...CASSIA...DE LEON SPRINGS...DELEON
SPRINGS...DE BARY...DEBARY...DE LAND...DELAND...ORANGE CITY...LAKE
MONROE...ORMOND BEACH...LAKE HELEN...DELTONA...HOLLY HILL...DAYTONA
BEACH INTL SPEEDWAY...DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY...OSTEEN...
DAYTONA BEACH...OAK HILL...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...ELDORA...BETHUNE
BEACH...WILBUR BY THE SEA...SOUTH DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...PONCE
INLET...EDGEWATER AND APOLLO BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.



LAT...LON 2915 8096 2879 8072 2878 8073 2887 8080
2885 8082 2879 8078 2884 8110 2883 8132
2887 8136 2881 8145 2879 8195 2896 8196
2897 8166 2933 8167 2940 8142 2927 8140
2927 8116 2941 8116 2943 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1145Z 270DEG 42KT 2986 8125 2909 8191
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1035. IKE
I had .88 inches of rain from the cold front moving through last night around midnight. High winds knocked out the electricity for almost 3 hours. Branches scattered over highway 331, north of Defuniak Springs,FL. from the winds last night.
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1034. emcf30

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-027-049-053-055-057-061-069-081-085-093-09 5-097-101-103-
105-111-115-117-119-127-051800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0105.110405T1105Z-110405T1800Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD DESOTO HARDEE
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE MANATEE
MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS
POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE
ST. LUCIE SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$



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Unfortunately though in my hope for a serious thunderstorm here, it looks like the part of the line approaching Tampa Bay has just weakened considerably, We'll see if it tries to ramp up again soon.
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The SPC has a Moderate risk for a severe wind threat and 65 knot winds in Central Florida.

Link

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Quoting Neapolitan:

SRM (solar radiation management) is Big Energy's ultimate dream come true: it can continue pumping vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, then turn around and claim that, since aerosols and airborne particulates provide a shading, cooling effect, they need to a) be allowed to stop filtering and scrubbing their industrial emissions, and b) get paid for polluting, as they are providing a valuable service for GW mitigation. Win-win, it is! Of course, combating a self-induced summer by instituting a self-induced winter seems incredibly stupid, especially when there are other things we can try such as, you know, alternate energy or--heaven forbid--conservation. But where there's a Koch Brothers will, there's a Koch Brothers way, so you never know.

Meanwile:

--Government officials in Thailand are placing the blame for the recent, ongoing, and unprecedented flooding squarely at the feet of climate change.. Some parts of the nation have seen more than 86" of rain in just the past four months, killing at least 41.

--The Philippines government says that an uptick in insect-borne illnesses in that nation is likely caused by warming. "Higher temperatures and more humid climates caused by climate change favor the growth in the populations of insects and vectors that spread diseases," says a spokesperson.


Topic of Blog, Record quiet cyclone season for 2010

Not Global whatever and climate nothing out of the norm.




Link
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I'm not sure what the low level flow is at Tampa Bay, but it has to be very high. The PW is very high with 70 degree dew points and I can tell by looking at how fast the clouds are flying by and by how low they are that there is definitely some surface-based severe weather support around here. It looks very unstable and violent near the surface out there, still not as freaky looking as the surface layer that preceded the super cell we had last Thursday, but definitely wild enough out there.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


I am getting the sense that this severe weather event is developing more dynamically than any of the models or forecasters had expected prior to the early morning hours here in Central Florida.

It seems as if they are just catching up with rapidly developing changes in the upper air patterns, low-level flow and other setups in the atmosphere which were not predicted to take place as recently as 6-8 hours ago.

It looks like West Central Florida may wake up to a surprisingly active weather pattern in a few hours. I would also not discount the threat of tornadoes as I also sense that the convergence pattern is setting up to be more favorable than forecast. We'll see.


I don't know, the forecasters have really picked up on the threat now at least from what I see, the NWS and the SPC are pretty serious about it, and the local weather forecasters have been saying they do expect AT LEAST some severe weather today. They probably aren't making a huge deal just because after the severe weather outbreak Thursday, its hard to have something that can live up anywhere near that you know? They don't want people to think this one is gonna be just as bad.

However they certainly aren't blowing it off either because they realize the threat is definitely real with this.

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1027. beell
click graphic for storm reports

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16295
Quoting TomTaylor:
yea calculus isn't exactly a redneck activity haha. I'm curious, what are you going to college for? I'm guessing its something related to meteorology...


yeah it sure isn't! Haha, and yes of course I'm going for meteorology!
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Quoting CalebDancemastah:


By the way how is that Calculus class going, & is the teacher any good??


The class is going great so far, and so is my professor, he is very good! Hes me 2nd Egyptian teacher Ive had, and both Egyptian professors Ive had are officially my top 2 best professors Ive had in college yet.
Take a hint folks, most Middle Eastern people are not terrorists, they have great people there too!
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notice the blog is advertising politics again seems as if that is big business. who ever they are they cannt have mind.
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1023. aquak9
chief TEPCO official quoted as saying:

"I just want my rice back"
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I remember fondly those days last week when water with iodine levels only 1,500 times the allowable limit was detected in the sea near the Fukushima plant.

Japan Resumes Pumping Radioactive Water Into Nearby Sea

Nuclear technicians have resumed pumping radioactive water from Japan's crippled nuclear plant into the nearby ocean, where radioactivity levels several million times the allowable limit are now being reported.

Officials with the Tokyo Electric Power Company said 2,800 tons [670,000 gallons] of radioactive water had been pumped into the sea from a temporary storage facitily by 9 a.m. Tuesday. The company plans to empty 10,000 tons [2,395,000 gallons] of water from the tank to make room for water that is much more highly contaminated and preventing repair work at the plant.

Another 1,500 tons [360,000 gallons] is being pumped from two nearby buildings.

Japan's NHK Television meanwhile reported that radioactive iodine levels were measured Saturday in the sea near the Fukushima plant's Number 2 reactor at levels more than 7 million times the legal limit. Another measurement on Monday morning found levels at 5 million times the legal limit

VOA Article...

Not to worry, though; it'll disperse. Besides, TEPCO and nuclear officials still assure us it's "low-level radioactivity". Really. They assure us it absolutely will not harm human health or the environment. After all, several million gallons at several million times the safe limit is really no different than several trillion gallons at the normal limit--so stop yer worrying, silly civilians.

I personally think those TEPCO folks could really help calm frazzled nerves and show confidence to the Japanese people by taking a dip in those barely-contaminated waters right there on live TV. :-\
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Quoting Jedkins01:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 050547
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
147 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NATURE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE AND TRACK SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE AREA
IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DYNAMICS
FOR THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON DO LOOK TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THAT
DEW POINTS ARE MAINTAINING IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AND COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST SB CAPES LOOK TO CLIMB TO AROUND
2500-3000 J/KG...LI DIPPING INTO THE -6 TO -8 RANGE...STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW...AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT INCREDIBLE IMPRESSIVE SO MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.





Based on what the NWS at Ruskin just released as well, looks like pretty decent shot of powerful thunderstorms and a straight line wind threat. This event will likely not be anywhere near the outbreak we had around here on Thursday though. However there will likely be widespread strong straight line winds with the squall line and pockets of severe wind damage is possible.


I am getting the sense that this severe weather event is developing more dynamically than any of the models or forecasters had expected prior to the early morning hours here in Central Florida.

It seems as if they are just catching up with rapidly developing changes in the upper air patterns, low-level flow and other setups in the atmosphere which were not predicted to take place as recently as 6-8 hours ago.

It looks like West Central Florida may wake up to a surprisingly active weather pattern in a few hours. I would also not discount the threat of tornadoes as I also sense that the convergence pattern is setting up to be more favorable than forecast. We'll see.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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