Torrential rains of 40+ inches deluge Thailand

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:47 PM GMT on March 31, 2011

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Torrential rains in excess of 40 inches (1.016 meters) deluged Thailand's Malay Peninsula this week, triggering floods that have killed at least 17 people. The floods submerged 61 major highways, affected 840,000 people, and forced the helicopter rescue of thousands of stranded tourists. Late March is usually a fairly dry time of year for Thailand, but near-record cold air settled in over the region this week, dropping temperatures to 5 - 10°C (9 - 18°F) below average. Heavy storms accompanied the cold air, and downpours with rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour affected the region for many days in a row. Sea surface temperatures of the waters surrounding the flood regions were near average, but were plenty warm enough to supply copious moisture to feed the storms. Flood recovery will slowed by additional moderately heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches expected to fall over the flooded region during the next week, according to the latest precipitation forecast from the GFS model.


Figure 1. The Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) analysis above was made using data that were calibrated using data from NASA's TRMM satellite. This analysis shows that rainfall for the past week over the Malay Peninsula was particularly extreme with totals of almost 1200 mm (~47 inches). TRMM satellite data revealed that rainfall in that area was frequently falling at a rate of over 50 mm/hr (~2 inches/hr). Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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My gosh, I had this feeling today would break the streak of living here and not having a tornado hit... My weather station had gusts nearly 90 mph, the tornado came close to here but I never saw it, I had to rush my mom and pets into the closet as the massive straight line winds hit since it sounded like a tornado, the tornado never actually hit but it is a complete mess around here from powerful straight line winds. The tornado did some significant damage near by including toppling a radio tower and tearing through a nearby mobile home park. Its easy to say its "only an f0 or f1" until it hits your area....


Seriously for those of you who say people are hyping the severe weather in Florida. Grow up. This is a weather blog, not just a place to talk about your stupid politics, oil prices, and GW politics. Get over yourselves and leave people alone.

Just because some of us have a passion for weather and we get very excited doesn't mean you have to be like immature juveniles and try and ruin people's excitement. Nobody claimed its the end of the world for Florida, but this is a serious event.

Some of you people would have peed your pants if you were here, I'm still hit with shock. We also got incredible rainfall and my street is completely flooded.

That super cell that produced the tornado that came onshore in Indian rocks was the one that hit me. Not only was this the strongest winds we've ever had but the core of the cell dumped rain rate of 7.5 inches per hour and 2.75 inches here in just 10 minutes! My Street is flooded the worst Ive seen in 2 years.

By the way we just got power back after hours and I'm still shocked from what came through here so that's why it took me a while to reply. Thank God no severe structural failure or injuries have occurred around here. Just classic hurricane force wind gust damage.
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Quoting jeffs713:

EWW.

As a note, I looked at the vertical wind profile for the Melbourne radar site, and as the storm was passing directly over the site, it was pegging 50-60 knot winds at 3k feet. The numbers just went up from there. at 1k feet, the fastest I saw was 40kt.

Even for a solid front, that is a vicious wind profile.

That same cell moved across the State & held up in intensity...will be interesting to see when real data from the nws in ruskin comes out as to how far the tornado trek, cause last I saw it was 81 miles & still going.
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Blog Update

Puerto Rico
a href="" target="_blank">Link

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Quoting emcf30:
I would have hated to be driving across the skyway bridge during this.


1531 61 MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE HILLSBOROUGH FL2785 8252
53 KNOT WIND GUST AT KMCF ASOS.

(TBW) 1535 88 4 SSE BUOY C21 GMZ830 FL2762 8265
SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE NORTH TOWER WEATHER STATION RECORDED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 71 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 88. STATION IS LOCATED 300 FEET ABOVE THE
WATER. (TBW

EWW.

As a note, I looked at the vertical wind profile for the Melbourne radar site, and as the storm was passing directly over the site, it was pegging 50-60 knot winds at 3k feet. The numbers just went up from there. at 1k feet, the fastest I saw was 40kt.

Even for a solid front, that is a vicious wind profile.
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I would have hated to be driving across the skyway bridge during this.


1531 61 MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE HILLSBOROUGH FL2785 8252
53 KNOT WIND GUST AT KMCF ASOS.

(TBW) 1535 88 4 SSE BUOY C21 GMZ830 FL2762 8265
SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE NORTH TOWER WEATHER STATION RECORDED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 71 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 88. STATION IS LOCATED 300 FEET ABOVE THE
WATER. (TBW
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Quoting RastaSteve:
4.36" here in Longwood today with a total since this began on Monday of 6.50"! That's a whole lotta rain for the Dry Season.

Hey, Rasta.
You were right in your Alarms the other day.
Those were some Bad Storms that rolled through Cen Florida.
As you said they would.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
this is the link to Dr.Grays TC forecast you can find out when he posts his next forecast

Link

anyway these are the next forecast dates

Wednesday April 6,
Wednesday 1 June,
and Wednesday 3 August.
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Quoting Grothar:



Strange weather around the world, pot.

Indeed.
And here too.
While not causing any death or destruction, this Dry Season has been particularly wet, as forecast due to Nino/nina.

Now, the forecasts are calling for 60% more rainfall than average for Jun Jul Aug. Cannot remember where I that statistic came from originally, but someone posted it on here some weeks ago. And I appreciate that it's a long-term forecast...)

In any case, 'Severe Weather' seems to be more regular than before, whether it is extreme cold, extreme heat, extreme rainfall etc.
This is all well and good for us folk that like to look at/study weather, but for the people affected, it is Dread.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
Weakening a little for the moment...Only temperarily...
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Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, you should have seen them in the 1800's. They were something. How you doing, hydrus? Weather getting any better by you?


I noticed that you and Ponce De Leon had little luck with his quest for the fountain. Truthfully, I wish the two of you had found it. I could use a sip or two from it about now. What the heck. Stand aside, everyone! I'm diving in! ..... no comments about, "surf's up!".
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Starting to cloud up to the north here in PBC, so it should be here soon.
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Hi it's me GTcooliebai...I'm going to be using this handle from now on. Anyways check this out: Damage in Pinellas County specifically in Largo http://www.baynews9.com/article/news/2011/march/2 25936/Storms-blow-through-Pinellas-County the Unconfirmed Tornado blew through my area the winds or wind gust were certainly strong reminiscient of Hurricane Frances & Jeanne, but obviously not sustained that long. A piece of the fence in my backyard came crashing down, thankfully no one is hurt :) I'll have a pic. up later. By the way Jedkins01 should know who I am :)
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reed.... seriously?

some well-forecasted severe thunderstorms over one US state is more important than 40" of rain over a localized area in another country?

Some things are more significant than what is happening around you.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, you should have seen them in the 1800's. They were something. How you doing, hydrus? Weather getting any better by you?
no. And it going to get worse...Have you seen the latest models most ancient of the ancient ones???..
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Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro...I typed a similar post to Jedkins a couple days ago. There has been a lull with severe weather down there...Severe weather happened more frequently in the 70,s and 80,s than in the 90,s and 2000,s...Not counting hurricanes...LOL


Yeah, you should have seen them in the 1800's. They were something. How you doing, hydrus? Weather getting any better by you?
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Quoting Grothar:
I know that these storms have been severe and deadly, but Florida has them all the time. It is just that in the past few years,we haven't seen many outbreaks like this. Anyone who has been here for many, many years know that they are not only uncommon, but usually very severe. Years ago, they were much worse.


Hello Gro...I typed a similar post to Jedkins a couple days ago. There has been a lull with severe weather down there...Severe weather happened more frequently in the 70,s and 80,s than in the 90,s and 2000,s...Not counting hurricanes...LOL
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I hope that this frontal boundary does not stall or put down more severe weather...
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I know that these storms have been severe and deadly, but Florida has them all the time. It is just that in the past few years,we haven't seen many outbreaks like this. Anyone who has been here for many, many years know that they are not only uncommon, but usually very severe. Years ago, they were much worse.


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Flooding in Koh Samui, Thailand on 27 march 2011, between Mea Nam and Bang Por.





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NGP Accum..Rainfall...Link
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The CMC has more rain for Central Florida...Link
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The beginnings of the next big severe weather outbreak.....And it will be big...
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Quoting reedzone:
With all due respect Dr. Masters... A historic severe weather outbreak happened in Florida yesterday, tornadoes causing people to be trapped under a collapsed airport.. and you don't even mention this?


Reed, it only happened this afternoon.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
So what should south florida see out of this line of thunderstorms?

Hopefully not a cancellation of the ATP and WTA semifinals in Key Biscayne!
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I live in St.Petersburg we have trees and power lines down every. the area is a complete mess.
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I cancelled all of our Seminole elementary after school sessions today; hope I was right because what a pain in the neck!
Try contacting 150 parents during the day about changing after school arrangments. This is almost impossible so we are having to keep some, but not all of them. Looks like most of the wicked stuff is remaining south of Sanford/Altamonte area at this point.
good grief. Makes me wish I had just let it all go as planned! But I was not willing to drive over there and if I did not want to be on the road I didn't want to expect anyone else to be. Too bad the TEPCO managers don't feel the same way, huh?!
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I wonder how much rain this area will receive. Drought buster for sure..
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Therefore we should donate and give all our money and hard earned money to over seas countries and spread the wealth...
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Quoting reedzone:
With all due respect Dr. Masters... A historic severe weather outbreak happened in Florida yesterday, tornadoes causing people to be trapped under a collapsed airport.. and you don't even mention this?

Erm, I thought this just happened a couple of hours ago.
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Reed 40 inches of rain is a lot more historic than severe storms in Florida
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Briefing from Miami NWS for this afternoon/evening.
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With all due respect Dr. Masters... A historic severe weather outbreak happened in Florida yesterday, tornadoes causing people to be trapped under a collapsed airport.. and you don't even mention this?
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So what should south florida see out of this line of thunderstorms?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I expect 60mph gusts at NWS site ASAP
North Central Florida is taking a beating...
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Thanks Jeff...
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Interesting link out of Melbourne FL


Link
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Live radar showing the high and low level rotation.

http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/subindex/weather/liv e_radar
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Quoting emcf30:
WOw, Moving at 70MPH. This is the cell that cause the damage at Lakeland Airport

TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-097-311745-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0018.110331T1705Z-110331T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
105 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SATELLITE BEACH...PATRICK AIRFORCE
BASE...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIALANTIC...CAMP HOLLY
FISH CAMP...
EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT.

* AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
MELBOURNE...SUNTREE...INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH AND MELBOURNE BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2799 8053 2803 8056 2812 8059 2816 8063
2798 8055 2791 8088 2813 8095 2824 8067
2824 8065 2822 8063 2825 8062 2826 8060
2811 8057 2799 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 250DEG 62KT 2803 8076

$$


MOSES


That storm REALLY wants to be in the Atlantic... like right NOW.
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Channel 9 just did a cross section of the warned cell. The chart goes to 55,000 feet. The height of the storm went past that box. Tall storm.
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WOw, Moving at 70MPH. This is the cell that cause the damage at Lakeland Airport

TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-097-311745-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0018.110331T1705Z-110331T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
105 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SATELLITE BEACH...PATRICK AIRFORCE
BASE...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIALANTIC...CAMP HOLLY
FISH CAMP...
EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT.

* AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
MELBOURNE...SUNTREE...INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH AND MELBOURNE BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2799 8053 2803 8056 2812 8059 2816 8063
2798 8055 2791 8088 2813 8095 2824 8067
2824 8065 2822 8063 2825 8062 2826 8060
2811 8057 2799 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 250DEG 62KT 2803 8076

$$


MOSES

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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